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[Lord Frieza]

He's probably only going to lose by 1 or 2 percent

Stop watching the results in real time and assume it's the final margin

Let's hope.

 

[Grizzle_Dat]

Now I feel like I did in November, not sure why I get sucked into these things.

 

[YunFang1130]

I'm going to eat a bag of M&M's and call it a day. Idiots.

 

[KHarvey16]

There is a winner and a loser. It doesn't matter if you win by 1 vote or 100,000 votes, all that matters is that you win. If you lose, you're a loser.

Please do not celebrate losing, it's pathetic.

This is nothing but ignorance of politics and the political process.

 

[Flying Toaster]

With the amount of money the Dems spent for this loss it is not a good look. If he loses it shows the Dems still have to work on messaging.

Edit: Closing the gap is one thing and it is good but with Trump he is going to spin the shit out of this.

 

[Capella]

it's estimated that the remaining votes greatly favor ossoff for what it's worth

Yeah, DeKalb and mail ins. Doesn't mean it will be enough for him to win but might close the margin assuming he doesn't under perform.

 

[Bam Bam Baklava]

Or polls consistently under-represent Republican turnout in almost every election.

There's nothing that verifies this notion. The biggest polling miss of the night happened in SC05 and it was not in the R favor.

 

[DopeyFish]

With the amount of money the Dems spent for this loss it is not a good look. If he loses it shows the Dems still have to work on messaging.

ever tried talking to a wall?

 

[Chris R]

Ya this is over, even a bigger margin than I thought.

Ds with terrible turn out yet again

 

[Chumley]

Now I feel like I did in November, not sure why I get sucked into these things.

I don't have even the slimmest hope for 2018.

Ossoff got fucking killed.

 

[balladofwindfishes]

FYI, Trump wouldn't have appointed these people who once held these seats if there was even a chance they could be this close or even lose them

These special elections literally only exist because of how safe R they were. And yet here we are almost winning by 2-5% in areas that were supposed to be extremely safe, untouchable R seats.

 

[eBay Huckster]

can't w8 for the final margin to be 51-49 with all the pants-shitting on this page

 

[KHarvey16]

Ya this is over, even a bigger margin than I thought.

Ds with terrible turn out yet again

Lol

 

[And_Gignac]

Democrats not getting excited by centrist candidates yet again!

 

[Patapwn]

There is a winner and a loser. It doesn't matter if you win by 1 vote or 100,000 votes, all that matters is that you win. If you lose, you're a loser.

Please do not celebrate losing, it's pathetic.

I agree wholeheartedly

Arguing how 'we lost less than normal' gets an eye roll from me

 

[Zyae]

He's probably only going to lose by 1 or 2 percent

Stop watching the results in real time and assume it's the final margin



There's an entire Wikipedia article on why it kinda actually does matter the percent Democrats lose by

Time is a flat circle

The DSCC also claimed that "If Ohio is a bellwether state for next year's midterm elections, things don't look too good for the Republicans." Republicans said the election meant nothing of the sort. "There is no correlation between what happens in a special election, where turnout is very low and you have circumstances that just aren't comparable to an election that happens on an Election Day in an election year," Brian Nick of the National Republican Senatorial Committee told The Cincinnati Post.

Democrats not getting excited by centrist candidates yet again!

Highest special election turnout ever in a fairly gop leaning district.

 

[Zolo]

I don't have even the slimmest hope for 2018.

Ossoff got fucking killed.

On the other hand, the SC vote was much closer than expected, so studying this & that will be interesting.

 

[Bam Bam Baklava]

Democrats not getting excited by centrist candidates yet again!

How's Rob Quist doing against the guy convicted of assault?

 

[Lord Frieza]

Everyone bitching about turnout doesn't know what they're talking about. Dems turned out in record for this Georgia race. There just simply wasn't enough of them to completely flip the seat, and there wasn't enough independents or turncoats GOP voters to put it over the finish line.

 

[Tarkus]

The biggest thing against Ossoff is that he doesn't live in the district and hasn't lived in the district in years. A decent Dem candidate should have destroyed shit Handel here.

 

[KHarvey16]

I agree wholeheartedly

Arguing how 'we lost less than normal' gets an eye roll from me

Would you describe yourself as politically engaged? Do you follow elections closely?

I'm just wondering if you actually consider that perhaps there is a lot of merit to citing the importance of making these races closer and you just don't know enough to understand why. It's a serious question.

 

[Chris R]

Everyone bitching about turnout doesn't know what they're talking about. Dems turned out in record for this Georgia race. There just simply wasn't enough of them to completely flip the seat, and there wasn't enough independents or turncoats GOP voters to put it over the finish line.

If there aren't "turncoats" with Washington in fucking shambles and with the worst President in history ruining the country what hope is there for 2018?

 

[DopeyFish]

Everyone bitching about turnout doesn't know what they're talking about. Dems turned out in record for this Georgia race. There just simply wasn't enough of them to completely flip the seat, and there wasn't enough independents or turncoats GOP voters to put it over the finish line.

looking at the vote history... it looks like the dems haven't come within less than 50,000 votes since the 70s?

 

[Zolo]

Nate Silver on 538:

So … that Politico graphic is back, but with a note saying that “a previous version of the chart below included an incorrect calculation which reversed the vote margins for the candidates.” In other words, instead of running a few points behind where she needed to be, Handel is running a few points ahead instead. It’s also not clear if those calculations are counting mail-in votes. Sort of a mess all around, tbh.

lmao

 

[Durden77]

The biggest thing against Ossoff is that he doesn't live in the district and hasn't lived in the district in years. A decent Dem candidate should have destroyed shit Handel here.

I don't believe this for a second. The biggest thing against Ossoff is Georgia is still Georgia, and this district is some of the most Georgia-ass-Georgia around.

We've become much more progressive, but only in very concentrated areas. In general, it's still Georgia, and it's still runs red deep. The fact that he did as good as he did it an accomplishment in itself.

 

[Lord Frieza]

If there aren't "turncoats" with Washington in fucking shambles and with the worst President in history ruining the country what hope is there for 2018?

That's another discussion than turnout, though, isn't it?

 

[TheCochese]

If there aren't "turncoats" with Washington in fucking shambles and with the worst President in history ruining the country what hope is there for 2018?

This district cares about taxes and abortion.

 

[sikkinixx]

Wow a Republican going to win again? Shock I say.

Democrats seems like a dude who has been friend zoned but convinced soon she'll actually realize she loves him. Hope rides for some big victory but it never comes. For all the Ls Trump and the house GOP seeem to suffer, never seems to amount to much where it counts.

 

[The Albatross]

This is all bitter sweet. Of course, it's nice that a relatively unknown Democrat can make a push in deep red Georgia against a political veteran Republican, but it's still frustrating to lose by a small margin.

You can almost contrast this 1:1 with the 2009 Special Election after Ted Kennedy died, in Massachusetts. Massachusetts, a deeply blue state that went strongly for Obama in 2008, and Scott Brown -- a political unknown -- kept it close throughout the election, and then pulled ahead in the final week to beat Martha Coakley, the seasoned veteran Democrat. It ended up being indicative of the Republican swing in the 2010 mid-terms.

Democrats in these elections seem to have a similar storybook underdog performance ... Only to lose closely on election night.

 

[Lo-Volt]

This is nothing but ignorance of politics and the political process.

Maybe, but it's more emotionally astute than we might be giving credit for. Think about the situation in which we live: a Republican president who is astonishing unprofessional, unprepared, unrepentant and really dangerous to the country at large. And that's increasingly becoming the mainstream opinion. At some point, the opposition "needs to win".

I know and a lot of people here know that swing is important as an indicator, and in every special election this year, Democrats are turning out voters and closing margins in places they "shouldn't" be, like in Montana and South Carolina (a relative squeaker considering the last election in that seat). And that's encouraging for those who want to see the Trump administration culled, halted, and ultimately defeated. But at some point, a Republican seat has to flip or it seems a little academic to the average wavering voter who isn't refreshing live blogs and really looking at precinct totals like some of us.

And this was also a relatively long fight, so people in the district (and sure, on GAF) were invested in this one for a while. So if Ossoff doesn't win against the odds, it's going to be hard for some supporters to swallow. To think they won't feel a sense of rejection and frustration is a little Spock-like of us.

 

[balladofwindfishes]

Wow a Republican going to win again? Shock I say.

Democrats seems like a dude who has been friend zoned but convinced soon she'll actually realize she loves him. Hope rides for some big victory but it never comes. For all the Ls Trump and the house GOP seeem to suffer, never seems to amount to much where it counts.

These elections, win or lose, don't count. One or two house seats aren't going to matter at all and change nothing about the legislative agenda.

What matters the most are the margins and the trends in voters, and so far, the Democrats are winning on that front.

It's just hidden behind a bunch of extremely safe R districts remaining R.

Democrats were never meant to be this close in these seats.

 

[Zyae]

This is all bitter sweet. Of course, it's nice that a relatively unknown Democrat can make a push in deep red Georgia against a political veteran Republican, but it's still frustrating to lose by a small margin.

You can almost contrast this 1:1 with the 2009 Special Election after Ted Kennedy died, in Massachusetts. Massachusetts, a deeply blue state that went strongly for Obama in 2008, and Scott Brown -- a political unknown -- kept it close throughout the election, and then pulled ahead in the final week to beat Martha Coakley, the seasoned veteran Democrat. It ended up being indicative of the Republican swing in the 2010 mid-terms.

Democrats in these elections seem to have a similar storybook underdog performance ... Only to lose closely on election night.

or you mean, this


https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ohio's_2nd_congressional_district_special_election,_2005

The DSCC also claimed that "If Ohio is a bellwether state for next year's midterm elections, things don't look too good for the Republicans." Republicans said the election meant nothing of the sort. "There is no correlation between what happens in a special election, where turnout is very low and you have circumstances that just aren't comparable to an election that happens on an Election Day in an election year," Brian Nick of the National Republican Senatorial Committee told The Cincinnati Post.

 

[BrutishMrFish]

Democrats not getting excited by centrist candidates yet again!

You really don't want to be talking about excitement when every single far left candidate has done measurably worse than the centrists.

 

[neurosisxeno]

So, what's stopping younger people from voting with such fervor?

They have jobs and school to go to. Republicans clean up with the 60+ crowd, the same ones that are at or living out retirement. Young people legitimately have shit to do.

 

[Atilac]

It must suck being a chicken little, I see this change of 20 points in the direction away from Republicans and you shit yourself that they held on. They shouldn't have to hold on, thats the point, the tsunami is here, they just don't know it yet.

 

[jfkgoblue]

This is all bitter sweet. Of course, it's nice that a relatively unknown Democrat can make a push in deep red Georgia against a political veteran Republican, but it's still frustrating to lose by a small margin.

You can almost contrast this 1:1 with the 2009 Special Election after Ted Kennedy died, in Massachusetts. Massachusetts, a deeply blue state that went strongly for Obama in 2008, and Scott Brown -- a political unknown -- kept it close throughout the election, and then pulled ahead in the final week to beat Martha Coakley, the seasoned veteran Democrat. It ended up being indicative of the Republican swing in the 2010 mid-terms.

Democrats in these elections seem to have a similar storybook underdog performance ... Only to lose closely on election night.

Not exactly, the Democrats did virtually no campaigning there, and just assumed Ted Kennedy's Senate seat would stay Democratic without any effort. But Democrats quickly won it back with Elisabeth Warren, sooo.....

 

[SoRuffShoNuff]

Ya this is over, even a bigger margin than I thought.

Ds with terrible turn out yet again

God, so many of us tried to tell yall that it isnt poor D turnout, its that the district is filled with old, rich, white, republicans. If you asked someone where the wealthy white people of Fulton, Cobb, and Dekalb counties lived they would point to that area, and its all one district.

 

[eBay Huckster]

SC-5 literally just swung 15 points and GA-6 is looking to be anywhere from 5 to 10 points closer than in 2016 (and the "uniform shift" calculation still gives Democrats a gain of like 40 seats if it holds for November, iirc), but sure, let's all keep bedwetting because the Democrats aren't winning seats they'd normally lose by double digits a year in advance of 435 simultaneous House elections

 

[Zolo]

They have jobs and school to go to. Republicans clean up with the 60+ crowd, the same ones that are at or living out retirement. Young people legitimately have shit to do.

And a lot of that 60+ crowd stay at home & watch Fox News a lot of the day. It's one of the largest parts of their identity.

 

[Thatonemoor]

If there aren't "turncoats" with Washington in fucking shambles and with the worst President in history ruining the country what hope is there for 2018?

I don't live in the district but I do live in GA. The type of people that live in Cobb county don't really care about that stuff man.

 

[Bunta]

Karen Handel (Republican) 53.4% 109,433
Jon Ossoff (Democratic) 46.6% 95,664

152 of 208 (73%) Precincts Reporting, 205,097 Total Votes

 

[antonz]

You really don't want to be talking about excitement when every single far left candidate has done measurably worse than the centrists.

Its amazing how fucking stupid some of the left can be. Oh no the Candidate doesn't quote Marx and run around preaching Socialism so no vote for them.

Meanwhile they sit at home and let Literal Nazi's and people who say its ok for people to starve to death or die in poverty to be elected.

Fuck Purity Tests when its literal Nazis you are running against

 

[TheCochese]

God, so many of us tried to tell yall that it isnt poor D turnout, its that the district is filled with old, rich, white, republicans. If you asked someone where the wealthy white people of Fulton, Cobb, and Dekalb counties lived they would point to that area, and its all one district.

People in these two threads consistently shit on the ground-level reporting we were doing.

 

[jfkgoblue]

They have jobs and school to go to. Republicans clean up with the 60+ crowd, the same ones that are at or living out retirement. Young people legitimately have shit to do.

I work and go to school, guess what, you have time to fucking vote, either before work or after, during lunch or if you can't make it, you can fill out an absentee ballot. So fucking tired of this bullshit excuse.

 

[Vectorman]

Might be bad to think that the SC race was closer than the GA race if these results end up being the same.

 

[KHarvey16]

Maybe, but it's more emotionally astute than we might be giving credit for. Think about the situation in which we live: a Republican president who is astonishing unprofessional, unprepared, unrepentant and really dangerous to the country at large. And that's increasingly becoming the mainstream opinion. At some point, the opposition needs to win.

I know and a lot of people here know that swing is important as an indicator, and in every special election this year, Democrats are turning out voters and closing margins in places they "shouldn't" be, like in Montana and South Carolina (a relative squeaker considering the last election in that seat). And that's encouraging for those who want to see the Trump administration culled, halted, and ultimately defeated. But at some point, a Republican seat has to flip or it seems a little academic to the average wavering voter who isn't refreshing live blogs and really looking at precinct totals like some of us.

So if Ossoff doesn't win against the odds, it's going to be hard for some supporters to swallow. To think they won't feel a sense of rejection and frustration is a little Spock-like of us.

Some republican seats have flipped already.

I've not once seen the opinion I quoted held by anyone with an actual understanding of the situation. People who participate in these threads and show they're informed might express frustration but they all understand the importance the tightening has, and that losing these races that shouldn't even be close isn't some kind of huge republican victory.

 

[Squire]

There is a winner and a loser. It doesn't matter if you win by 1 vote or 100,000 votes, all that matters is that you win. If you lose, you're a loser.

Please do not celebrate losing, it's pathetic.

Yes sir, Mr. President.

 

[Pyrokai]

Now I feel like I did in November, not sure why I get sucked into these things.

At least you've had a break. I've felt the same way ever since.

 

[zethren]

I don't believe this for a second. The biggest thing against Ossoff is Georgia is still Georgia, and this district is some of the most Georgia-ass-Georgia around.

We've become much more progressive, but only in very concentrated areas. In general, it's still Georgia, and it's still runs red deep. The fact that he did as good as he did it an accomplishment in itself.

Boom. This guy gets it.

 

[Buckle]

With the amount of money the Dems spent for this loss it is not a good look. If he loses it shows the Dems still have to work on messaging

The GOP has candidates that run on lunacy such as "non livable wages" and try to posit being college educated as a terrible thing and its still close.

Just let them enjoy dying from Trumpcare and global warming like they want. You can't fix stupid with better PR.