Cross-posting my take on the PS4 vs. PS5 numbers topic:
I still don't see how the PS5 doesn't beat the PS4 in total lifetime numbers. The PS5's managed to catch up to and remain very slightly behind the PS4 despite all of its hinderances like the supply constraint issues and notably higher price with price increases rather than price cuts. The PS5 has a lot going for it in the second half of the gen that the PS4 had already achieved earlier in the first half of its gen such as:
- The PS4 Pro had already launched by now to give the PS4 numbers a boost. The PS5 will get its Pro this holiday
- The PS4 had GTA5 launch on it in November 2014, only 1 year into the gen. Meaning the PS4 had GTA5 there to help push its numbers for 6 out of its 7 year life span, making the PS4 the primary console for the game (uncertain if the PS4 numbers are higher than PC or not). The PS5 will get its GTA game 5 years into its gen, so a massive mover of consoles is still ahead of us this gen. And yes the PS5 also has GTA5, but by the time the PS5 launched GTA5 had already been out for 7 years and had been out on PS3, 360, PS4, Xbone and PC so its impact had diminished despite still selling well.
- Cross gen wasn't as large a factor for the PS3->PS4 transition and it was pretty much supposed to last 1 year for SIE published games this gen, but got artificially extended due to the pandemic. Then add to that a lot of evergreen titles are cross gen, that gives folks less incentive to make the move to the current gen machines. As time goes on and more evergreen titles and their new entries drop last gen, that incentive for gamers to move to current gen increases.
- In terms of announcing first party content to get folks excited to pick up a console, by this point in last gen Sony had already announced pretty much every single game that was coming for the remainder of the gen and the hype machine was in full swing. This time Sony's playing its cards closer to its chest and there're only a few future games that we're aware of, with some of them landing this year. That said, SIE has a MUCH larger catalog of games for the second half of this gen compared to the PS4 that they're working on, so that hype factor hasn't fully engaged yet. That should get kicked off at a Showcase next month to go along with the Pro reveal.
- The PS4 had received price cuts by this point in time down to $299 USD MSRP while the PS5 is more expensive and has received price increases in many regions. My suspicion is that Sony will reduce the price back down to its original MSRP levels when the Pro arrives to give it a "price cut" and move more numbers.
Also worth noting that the PS5 is ahead of the PS4 in certain key markets like the USA and Japan. Europe is where they'll need to pick up the pace and there's ample time for that. Suffice it to say, the PS5 has a lot of key milestones ahead of it to push numbers that the PS4 had already achieved by this point in its life. Not to mention this gen is very likely going to last longer than last gen by going 8 years compared to 7 years. This is why I don't see a scenario where the PS5 doesn't sail past the PS4 numbers in the end.
On top of that, I think it's worth keeping in mind that the PS4 was a beast in itself and is one of the better selling consoles in history. Roughly keeping pace with that is a very good achievement.
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