I think there's a very good chance that Shenmue III will be well received. If they take care of a few obvious things like better voice acting and more user-friendly controls. Or at least give a decent tutorial for them. The type of game Shenmue is has become fairly popular lately. One of the dudes from the GI run mentioned it; Shenmue is essentially an open world Telltale/QD game. Games with an emphasis on story, character interaction, light puzzle solving, QTE's, etc have become pretty big with The Walking Dead, Life is Strange, etc.
In my opinion it's even working with an advantage because the world of Shenmue is less static and far more immersive than those other games. Or at least it has been in the previous two titles. With a few minor tweaks (maybe make the emergent side events more apparent somehow?) I think it would easily get a positive reception.
Those games all rely on player choice at key story points which Shenmue doesn't have. I think Shenmue is much closer to a game like Gone Home with a bigger budget and some rare combat and QTE sequences.
I do think Shenmue could get a good reception but they will need to have a much better story because so little happens in this first game. They basically took a 3-4 hour story and dragged it out to about 15-20 hours.