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Greece to hold referendum on austerity measures 5 July

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As a Greek I'm heavily conflicted on this one. I won't even be able to vote though, I'm staying in the states for the summer.

My father returned last month to Greece to make plans for starting his new business there... looks like he picked the worst time for that. :/
 

Courage

Member
Well, a referendum is one way to escape from the political hole the Greek government has found themselves in. I will expect a very solid "feck off" from the Greek population, followed by the Grexit we've been talking about for the last five years.

I don't see it going any other way.
 

daxgame

Member
Really bold from Tsipras and I agree with his decision.

However, I am worried that fear might prevail among the greek citizens, I'm not so sure it'll end as he expects :/
 

ramuh

Member
It's so crazy that it has come to this though. Maybe the drachma and a massive devaluation can help the Greeks, along with better tax collection.
 
The economy was wrecked from the get-go. It was gone before austerity measures kicked in, given what the state of the public sector, budget deficits and debt-to-GDP ratio was. You can add endemic nepotism and tax evasion to that mix. International organizations failed to take into account how flawed the Greek administration was and underestimated all these factors. There is a reason why Baltic states have been more successful while implementing cost saving measures.

A 25% reduction in GDP, 25% unemployment rate, and a 6.7% output gap in 2015 was a credible 2010 forecast without austerity measures? Did an IMF economist do the forecasting?
 
Krugman just wrote a piece that goes right in line with what I have been saying:

Europe’s Moment of Truth

2011, Tsiparas on Papandreou referendum idea, on the same topic:

"When Tsipras was asked by Greek journalist Nikos Chatzinikolaou about Greek PM George Papandreou‘s announcement of a referendum in Greece, he replied: “You know better than me that if the Greek Prime Minister himself tries to have the people face such dilemmas, the real default will be inevitable, and the Greek banks and the Greek economy will collapse before we even reach the voting booth. Just because of the possibility that the people may face such a dilemma, they might vote “No.”
The current Prime Minister of Greece had then accused Papandreou of despair and had characterized his announcement of a referendum as a “disaster for the Greek economy” and a “harbinger of bankruptcy,” considering it a trick used by the Greek government in its effort to buy more time in power. And he had come into the following conclusion: “The most democratic way of expressing the popular will is elections, not a referendum.”

http://greece.greekreporter.com/201...ad-stated-about-the-greek-referendum-in-2011/

I will be voting "No" regardless of any better proposals being made by the EU. The EU just doesn't seem to care about Greece.

Merkel called the 10 billion euro austerity measures a "generous proposal", the EU is governed by a bunch of crooks. I find this appalling and offensive.

Well, the EU did made debt haircuts up until now as well. I would call that generous and caring, to be sure.
 

sphagnum

Banned
I'm very interested to see what the masses will choose here. History in the making.

It will also be interesting to see how Syriza and KKE will react if a default does occur. Perhaps Syriza will become more radical since they're willing to go this far.
 
The cuts demanded austerity reforms. A lot of the reforms were indeed justified, others completely wreaked havoc in the Greek economy.

The haircut was not enough, but that's not the point. The point is that the largest part of the haircut was to the private lenders inside Greece (including many hospitals, universities, municipalities, companies etc) that damaged the economy even further. The banks that got a haircut were recapitalized by new loans as well. The PSI program really was a fancy trick and nothing of substance.

Even so, not many people have haircuts on their debts (no matter how insufficient), so I think that EU has proven good faith in all of this.
I remember how 4-5 years ago when Greece faced the same default problem, many economic analysts were saying that lending Greece more money is futile and the inevitable will happen regardless.

But the EU tried for 4 years to steer the course. My tax money (as an european) were sent there in the hopes of turning the tide against all odds. I love Greece, I like the people there, but it's not feasible anymore to simply send more money without hope of turning the ship around.

Having endless debt haircurs is not a solution. What's the meaning of debt if it can be canceled? What about other EU countries that have debt as well? Do we cancel their debt as well?
 
Tsipras must be the most supid person in the world.

I can't believe the people voted for him.
tumblr_inline_nluf7vyIGl1rz823b.gif
 

Acorn

Member
Tsipras must be the most supid person in the world.

I can't believe the people voted for him.
Dunno this seems like an ultimatum from the eu saying you can keep your house but we're taking your roof, bathroom, kitchen and hall. And you can never again have them again, but hey you still gotta house.
 
Dunno this seems like an ultimatum from the eu saying you can keep your house but we're taking your roof, bathroom, kitchen and hall. And you can never again have them again, but hey you still gotta house.

Well, Greece and Tsipras are free to refuse the proposal and leave the Eurozone if it the better alternative. Spoiler alarm: It isn't.

Not just it would destroy it Greece completly they would still need money from the ECB to survive it somehow.
 

bobbytkc

ADD New Gen Gamer
Dunno this seems like an ultimatum from the eu saying you can keep your house but we're taking your roof, bathroom, kitchen and hall. And you can never again have them again, but hey you still gotta house.

When the other option is you set fire to your own house, that doesn't look too bad.
 

Acorn

Member
Well, Greece and Tsipras are free to refuse the proposal and leave the Eurozone if it the better alternative. Spoiler alarm: It isn't.

Not just it would destroy it Greece completly they would still need money from the ECB to survive it somehow.

When the other option is you set fire to your own house, that doesn't look too bad.
They want 3% growth per year whilst going through punishing austerity 3.0. Taking more money out of circulation by cutting pensions and other social funds again it's an impossible target.
 

bobbytkc

ADD New Gen Gamer
They want 3% growth per year whilst going through punishing austerity 3.0. Taking more money out of circulation by cutting pensions and other social funds again it's an impossible target.

Yes, I understand that. I am not saying the ECB is right or that they should not have done something else.

What I am not sure about is that what ECB is offering to Greece is obviously necessarily worse than destroying the economy and that building it up after it is destroyed is necessarily the best thing to do.
 
This has really illustrated to me just how degenerate the political process is in the EU. Our finance minister told the press that "He [Varoufakis] answered me: If the referendum has a positive result, he'll immediately sign the agreement" -- so far so good. But our minister followed this up by saying that he considers this a "very strange approach".

Apparently, letting the people decide on the future of their country is a very strange approach in Europe in 2015.

Yeah. Sometimes it seems like the fundamental ideals of Europe have been all but forgotten.
 
They want 3% growth per year whilst going through punishing austerity 3.0. Taking more money out of circulation by cutting pensions and other social funds again it's an impossible target.

No, that's not correct. They want a 1% primary surplus right now.

That's impossible nor insane.
 

Arksy

Member
Well I certainly agree with Ikael's post that there is a problem with the views of the Greek population, who want several things that are incompatible with each other, but if you're a politician it's quite a big call to make. There are economists who'd advocate for exiting the EMU and others who'd advocate for austerity until the end of times, but either way they'd be making a decision that the majority of the public oppose. I agree a referendum isn't an ideal way of managing economic policy, but at least in this situation it forces a choice that the people will have to experience and judge for themselves instead of leaving them in some sort of economic limbo-land or purgatory.



Funny how you say "around the world". It's not a coincidence that the PIIGS nations had sovereign debt crises in the wake of the GFC whilst non EMU nations like UK, USA, Canada, Japan, Australia etc... did not.
The GFC didn't (just) expose flaws in these economies, it exposed the fundamental flaws in the design of the EMU and the ideologies of those who make its decisions. Australia and Ireland both had government surpluses running on the back of high private debt before the crisis: guess which one collapsed and had to be bailed out and which one was able to successfully implement bank guarantees and stimulus through deficit spending? Greece and Japan both had high levels of government debt and persistent deficits prior to the crisis: guess which one collapsed and had austerity enforced on it and which one kept doing its thing and maintaining low yields on its bonds? These aren't 1:1 comparisons, but to act like the economic woes and triumphs of EMU nations are entirely of their own doing and directly comparable to any fully sovereign country is wilful ignorance.

In a world where there was no GFC and Greece stayed using its own currency (or even if only one of those occurred), there is no way it would have collapsed in the way it has now. There would have been no imposed austerity and its troubles would have been its own to sort out over time.



Budget deficits and debt to GDP are compositional indicators, not evidence of a poor economy in and of themselves. Austerity doesn't work. The IMF modelling using a negative fiscal multiplier was proven to be completely wrong. If Greece had more successfully implemented austerity (in terms of increasing tax take and reducing expenditure, i.e. taking money out of the economy) they only would have been more wrong. Other nations reducing their government deficits tells us nothing about what sectoral balances are appropriate for Greece in a macro-accounting sense.

Whatever the problems with Greece's economy are (and I'm not denying there are many) they were only made worse by its involvement in the EMU and the austerity imposed by the Troika. To which you could say " well they shouldn't have joined/been let in in the first place," and I'd agree, but if you think that their admittance to the EMU was an act of benevolence and of no benefit to nations like Germany then you're missing some key parts of the picture.

The EMU has been a complete disaster for the PIIGS nations, no one should forget the extent of the suffering that Greek people are going through. I agree with everything you just said. Maybe I should go see a doctor...
 

petran79

Banned
they fear that after Greece the UK will follow. Cameron promised a similar Referendum. The debacle of the Labour party was also influenced by the Greek situation.

Greek crisis will have a domino effect worldwide.
 

Akyan

Member
That's simply false. You have not been taxed, at least not yet. The respective governments took loans and gave those loans to Greece with higher interest. The tax payers will be burdened only if Greece defaults.

Put plain and simply:
Greece doesn't default: European tax payers pay nothing, they actually receive interest from the investment.
Greece receives a haircut: European tax payers pay half the price of the loans.
Greece defaults: European tax payers pay the full price of the loans.

So, we are not talking about money you will have already lost, but money you will be asked to pay in the future if Greece defaults, because you haven't paid them yet.

The issue that was rightly being pointed out is that Greece is already asking for option 2... which will ultimately affect the tax payers for every country in the Eurozone who contributed to the bailout. There are many people advocating here for the Greek politicians doing the right thing for their people. You must agree that it's entirely within the prerogative of the other politicians to do the same for theirs....
 

Piecake

Member
The issue that was rightly being pointed out is that Greece is already asking for option 2... which will ultimately affect the tax payers for every country in the Eurozone who contributed to the bailout. There are many people advocating here for the Greek politicians doing the right thing for their people. You must agree that it's entirely within the prerogative of the other politicians to do the same for theirs....

Then you get default and you have to pay more
 

Kathian

Banned
they fear that after Greece the UK will follow. Cameron promised a similar Referendum. The debacle of the Labour party was also influenced by the Greek situation.

Greek crisis will have a domino effect worldwide.

In no way is the UK referendum even similar.
 

Akyan

Member
Here's a bit more on the ECB:

The European Central Bank's governing council is expected to turn off Emergency Liquidity Assistance (ELA) for Greek banks at its meeting later today, according to well-placed sources.
"We think the Greek government will have no choice but to announce a bank holiday on Monday, pending the introduction of capital controls," said a source.
So, with Greece no longer participating in a formal rescue programme, it is seen as impossible for the European Central Bank to continue extending credit to Greek banks - because the solvency of the Greek state would be in doubt, and the solvency of banks is so intimately linked to the solvency of the state.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-33303304
 
Vote no and just refuse to leave the Euro. There's no mechanism to force Greece out anyway.
And this will accomplish what? Staying in the Euro does not mean they automatically get money from the ECB.

They have to leave the Euro if they vote no, so they can get a new currency, devalue it and start exporting again.
 

Arnie7

Banned
Nothing will happen on Wednesday. There is no universal bailiff that will come knocking in Greece's door threatening to take their stuff.

Greece has called out the elites bluff. The entire game is rigged. All perception of debt are just that, completely fabricated.
 

Walshicus

Member
And this will accomplish what? Staying in the Euro does not mean they automatically get money from the ECB.

They have to leave the Euro if they vote no, so they can get a new currency, devalue it and start exporting again.

Well it re-frames the debate. Plus there are still an awful lot of reasons to *want* to be in the single currency.

Greece is taking more in tax than it spends; it's just the interest on loans that's causing it trouble - completely abrogating those debts is probably the best plan right now, it's the best card Greece has if it wants to negotiate a better deal.

A percentage of something is better than nothing.
 
Nothing will happen on Wednesday. There is no universal bailiff that will come knocking in Greece's door threatening to take their stuff.

Greece has called out the elites bluff. The entire game is rigged. All perception of debt are just that, completely fabricated.

Well yeah, it's not like the IMF can confiscate the Acropolis if they don't get payed. The question is if the country's economy can sustain itself without access to the international monetary markets and if greek banks can provide the necessary liquidity without ELA support.
 

Xando

Member
Vote no and just refuse to leave the Euro. There's no mechanism to force Greece out anyway.

That's not how this is working. They will be cut off from ELA soon which will leave their banks dead which will force the goverment into default and without new money from the ECB they will have to get money somewhere else which will lead them to introduce another currency (drachma says hello) to pay pensions and wages.
 
They were always going to default.

They don't have money. They are basically only functioning with lent money, without means to pay it back. They only thing they have been doing for the last year or two with bailouts and more borrowed money is to lengthen the agony of the patient on the brink of death.
 
This has really illustrated to me just how degenerate the political process is in the EU. Our finance minister told the press that "He [Varoufakis] answered me: If the referendum has a positive result, he'll immediately sign the agreement" -- so far so good. But our minister followed this up by saying that he considers this a "very strange approach".

Apparently, letting the people decide on the future of their country is a very strange approach in Europe in 2015.

Listening to these clowns you'd think the Maastricht treaty was handed down from mount Sinai.
 

Walshicus

Member
They were always going to default.

They don't have money. They are basically only functioning with lent money, without means to pay it back. They only thing they have been doing for the last year or two with bailouts and more borrowed money is to lengthen the agony of the patient on the brink of death.

Again, they have a primary surplus.
 
They were always going to default.

They don't have money. They are basically only functioning with lent money, without means to pay it back. They only thing they have been doing for the last year or two with bailouts and more borrowed money is to lengthen the agony of the patient on the brink of death.

The problem was that Greece was on the way to reduce it's massive budget deficit in 2014 and 2015 (before Tsipras did his magic) to a sustainable amount.

With the pre-Syriza budget and policy was on the way to archive a primay surplus of 2,1% for 2015. The narration for further help would have been complety differently now.
 
D

Deleted member 231381

Unconfirmed Member
The problem was that Greece was on the way to reduce it's massive budget deficit in 2014 and 2015 (before Tsipras did his magic) to a sustainable amount.

With the pre-Syriza budget and policy was on the way to archive a primay surplus of 2,1% for 2015. The narration for further help would have been complety differently now.

Yes, the plea would have been even more desperate and earlier. Running a primary surplus of 2,1% when your economy is tanking is unbelievably harmful - you're taking out more than is going in at a point people are pulling children out of schools, crowding to food banks, and committing suicide at unprecedented rates. Greece would have had to have grown at ~6% a year (i.e., China levels of growth) to take the slack of the initial 4,5% primary surplus demanded by creditors. The initial plans were absolutely ludicrous, and if Syriza had been in office then they'd have had the good sense to do differently.
 

Nikodemos

Member
But the EU tried for 4 years to steer the course. My tax money (as an european) were sent there in the hopes of turning the tide against all odds.
Actually, your money, as a European taxpayer, were sent to Greece in order to recapitalise German banks and private pension funds (to a greater degree) and French banks (to a lesser).
 
D

Deleted member 231381

Unconfirmed Member
Actually, your money, as a European taxpayer, were sent to Greece in order to recapitalise German banks and private pension funds (to a greater degree) and French banks (to a lesser).

Yup. I can't blame the Med countries for getting pissy with Germany in the slightest. Germany seems pretty happy to enjoy all of the Euro benefits, including a decade of abnormally high exports thanks to a weakened currency, with none of the downsides a currency union should entail.
 
The issue of how guilty Greece should feel is not very interesting to me as an European. They're a basket case and ultimately have to find their own way.

But what does interest me is that the austerity pressure is real and is being pushed as the only medicine to small countries suffering the euro's side effects. As a citizen of one of those small countries (Finland) I expect that in a decade I will have to either join the unemployed or accept pay cuts in order to prop up the monetary union. At this point Grexit might be the only thing that could change that dynamic.
 

wsippel

Banned
This has really illustrated to me just how degenerate the political process is in the EU. Our finance minister told the press that "He [Varoufakis] answered me: If the referendum has a positive result, he'll immediately sign the agreement" -- so far so good. But our minister followed this up by saying that he considers this a "very strange approach".

Apparently, letting the people decide on the future of their country is a very strange approach in Europe in 2015.
It certainly is a "very strange approach". And a very stupid approach. Mainly for two reasons:

1) The timing is stupid. The deadline has been known for quite some time. Several EU finance ministers (including Schäuble) suggested a referendum weeks or even months ago. Yet the Greek government waited until the very last minute, then announced a referendum for after the deadline had already passed. They bluffed like the amateurs they are and the rest of the EU called.

2) There is no agreement to sign regardless of the outcome. The referendum as a whole is a farce because there's nothing to vote on. Greece pulled out before any agreement was reached. Nobody knows what voting for the Euro even means at this point. And if the Greek people vote for the Euro, their government is no longer in any position to demand concessions and essentially has to sign whatever the EMU wants.

Basically, if the Greek government wanted to do a proper referendum, they would have agreed on a proposal and held a referendum in late May or early June. Not five days after the deadline passes with nothing to vote on.
 
It certainly is a "very strange approach". And a very stupid approach. Mainly for two reasons:

1) The timing is stupid. The deadline has been known for quite some time. Several EU finance ministers (including Schäuble) suggested a referendum weeks or even months ago. Yet the Greek government waited until the very last minute, then announced a referendum for after the deadline had already passed. They bluffed like the amateurs they are and the rest of the EU called.

2) There is no agreement to sign regardless of the outcome. The referendum as a whole is a farce because there's nothing to vote on. Greece pulled out before any agreement was reached. Nobody knows what voting for the Euro even means at this point.

Basically, if the Greek government wanted to do a proper referendum, they would have agreed on a proposal and held a referendum in late May or early June. Not five days after the deadline passes with nothing to vote on.

And then what? You speak first in poker terms and then in terms of winning an argument, both of which are worth nothing in the context of this problem. What is the correct way forward as an answer to the refererendum?
 
That's simply false. You have not been taxed, at least not yet. The respective governments took loans and gave those loans to Greece with higher interest. The tax payers will be burdened only if Greece defaults.

Well, I hope you prove me wrong on the 30th when Greece will pay back the interest..
 
Actually, your money, as a European taxpayer, were sent to Greece in order to recapitalise German banks and private pension funds (to a greater degree) and French banks (to a lesser).
Banks that are funding the economy and the government. It's not like the money vanished.
 

Calabi

Member
So you are saying that holding a referendum after the bill is due is a smart move?


Ok sir. Whatever you say...

Are you one of the creditors? You must be because I find it strange how someone not personally involved can be so angry and bothered about all this and what Greece did and is doing.
 
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