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Deleted member 231381
Unconfirmed Member
Have you heard of the good cop, bad cop routine?
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Greece votes OXI/No on more Austerity measures
- Thread starter Coriolanus
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Have you heard of the good cop, bad cop routine?
Coriolanus
Banned
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Yes. It doesn't involve taking out the bad cop and having the good cop become the bad cop. If it comes to that, the routine has already failed. It also doesn't work if the prisoner is playing good cop/bad cop.
Who knows, maybe God will suddenly appear and solve the situation to make it a real Greek tragicomedy.
I can understand that a lot of people put their hopes into this guy. But the situation for the average greek should be getting more and more worse each passing minute and this guy is just wasting time for politic ideologies and playing a game with unclear risks.
I doubt that this "all in" strategy (that might potentially ruin the future of several million people) stays really popular each minute that's passing.
Theonik
Member
He's getting increasingly more popular the worse things become in fact.
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Deleted member 231381
Unconfirmed Member
Well, Greece did it in reverse - bad cop to establish they really might default, creditors, so you better deal with them; good cop to then actually make a deal. Tsakalotos is the good cop. This, incidentally, is evidence that this was probably a deliberate attempt to improve Greece's bargaining position, because otherwise Tsakalotos would have been in charge from the start.
Greece are not exactly prisoners in this scenario, either. Greece defaulting genuinely harms the EU too, so they do have some bargaining power, which is what Varoufakis was trying to entrench.
EDIT: And yes, the Tsipras government seems to have become more popular, not less, since the referendum.
Coriolanus
Banned
Radicalization of the electorate is generally seen as facilitated by times of hardship.
By which i mean to say that one shouldn't expect the greeks to elect someone tamer if they, for some reason, punt this guy.
We should replace the Euro summits with a fight between Thor and Hercules.
D
Deleted member 231381
Unconfirmed Member
Today. Theoretically, the Greeks could be given some last minute money to allow negotiations to go on until Sunday, but given the current atmosphere, that isn't happening. A final deal on whether Greece stays or goes will happen today, if Greece is going that will be discussed on Sunday and provisions put in place, and the actual exit will begin on the 20th.
Theonik
Member
That's more for the pro-european faction at this point.
Relaxed Muscle
Member
michaelius
Banned
That would be few more bilions of Euro thrown into bottomless pit if negotiats fall over so I don't see any chance of it happening.
Relaxed Muscle
Member
Right now, EU leaders are doing their best for that to happen, specially Germany.
cjp
Junior Member
If the banks run out of money in, let's say, a week, can they even issue IOUs quickly enough?
NickFire
Member
No idea, but who in their right mind would accept them? "Here sir, even though we cant pay our current debts and are more inclined to not pay them instead of spending less, please let me pay you with a promise to pay you later."
Crimson_Fate
Member
The people are getting exactly what they asked for with their no vote.
Wait till they are forced back to the Drakma and that 300 billion debt is factored in as it is devalued. The cost of imported food alone is going to be a rude awakening.
Wait till they are forced back to the Drakma and that 300 billion debt is factored in as it is devalued. The cost of imported food alone is going to be a rude awakening.
PJV3
Member
Appear to back down and save northern face, get something better later perhaps.
Coriolanus
Banned
If that legit comes to pass, i, for one, am super excited to se a repeat of allathis a coupla months down the line. Again.
D
Deleted member 231381
Unconfirmed Member
Greece's current debt is irrelevant to the value of the drachma after default. That's not how the value of currencies is determined.
Relaxed Muscle
Member
I guess this means the Juncker proposal, rather than the referendum one.
Also debt-relief in the short term.
kingkaiser
Member
My prediction for next Sunday
At this point i'm expecting we'll be still discussing this in 2050. EZ countries just don't have the balls to do what is necessary (what ever this might be).
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Deleted member 231381
Unconfirmed Member
If this happens, I will need to sit down and have a laugh and then a cry for a bit, in that order.
QuicheFontaine
Member
If they started printing Greek IOUs, even if they claimed to be denominated in euros, they would essentially be a new fiat currency, i.e., they'd be drachmas.
So, you know, people would accept them, but they wouldn't trade anywhere near the euro. They'd very quickly devalue to a more accurate valuation.
paradise_circus
Member
Some folks I know bought tons of nutella, medicaments and stuff to ship them from berlin to greece when they go for the summer vacations with their cars.
I hope the once emmigrated families can help the greece citizens out, even if it's just a little bit.
I hope the once emmigrated families can help the greece citizens out, even if it's just a little bit.
Napoleonthechimp
Member
Hilarious. The Greek government are a joke.
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Deleted member 231381
Unconfirmed Member
Yes and no. I mean, for them to work as IOUs (they won't, but to keep up the pretense they will) the Greek government will ensure that all Euro pricing / IOU pricing remains equivalent. People will hoard Euros and spend IOUs as a result, and attempt to use Euros for purchasing foreign goods only, which would hasten the exit of Euros from Greece and force Greece to place very restrictive capital controls in play. They won't actually devalue until Greece exits the Euro because of those capital controls.
D
Deleted member 231381
Unconfirmed Member
Reuters confirming no deal reached, talks on Sunday.
I think it is now almost certain Greece are defaulting. Ministers are saying that the final meeting on Sunday will decide that, but that doesn't leave time to actually arrange the process of default and exit - you can't attempt to negotiate a plan A and set out the basics of a plan B at the same time. Besides, Greece sinks even further into arrears tomorrow. I think this it, guys.
I think it is now almost certain Greece are defaulting. Ministers are saying that the final meeting on Sunday will decide that, but that doesn't leave time to actually arrange the process of default and exit - you can't attempt to negotiate a plan A and set out the basics of a plan B at the same time. Besides, Greece sinks even further into arrears tomorrow. I think this it, guys.
Turkey is taking their place.
Coriolanus
Banned
Relaxed Muscle
Member
I can't believe we are witnessing the death of the UE.
Will be quite tight schedule wise. Bundestag still has to agree to negotiations.
PdotMichael
Banned
There is no Greece's proposal to agree in the first place.
Relaxed Muscle
Member
There's was no will to agree to it, in the first place.
https://twitter.com/schuldensuehner/status/618520515439915008
Referendum made things worse, not better, in other words. Tough sell for Tsipras domestically.
Coriolanus
Banned
That actually makes it a super easy sell at home. They just gave him a big fat target if true.
"EU dont give no fucks about greece/democracy", so on, so forth
Relaxed Muscle
Member
Seeing these declarations, I fully believe that, domestically, people will support Tsipras.
This was the moment for Merkel to choose between saving the EU or winning next German elections, sad to see she chosen the second option.
D
Deleted member 231381
Unconfirmed Member
That's entirely Merkel being stupid and dangerous. Absolutely unbelievable stance to take. Greece should default and be done with it. If anything, that's the easiest sell for "they don't give a shit" I've ever seen for Tsipras - because it's now clearly true.
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