This really is Game of Thrones.
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Greece votes OXI/No on more Austerity measures
- Thread starter Coriolanus
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This really is Game of Thrones.
No doubt. All his government has done in the last weeks and months was to construct the narrative that everybody else is to blame except him. Should have rather written some proposal pages, but defaulting without getting blamed for it in Greece was apparently always his plan anyway.
maquiladora
Member
So the new Greek proposal needs to be something even more unpalatable than the proposal that the Greek govt just campaigned to reject in the referendum?
Relaxed Muscle
Member
Did you see that Merkel is asking for worse conditions than before? That's totally unnaceptable.
Is clear that no written proposal by the Greeks was bound to be approved.
Melon Husk
Member
At this point I'm just going to ignore Merkel's posturing which she's clearly doing for her own constituency. It's up to the rest of the eurozone to save Greece with a sane deal.
D
Deleted member 231381
Unconfirmed Member
Yes. I think a Grexit is effectively guaranteed at this point.
Officials have said the entire week that the rules for applying for the ESM are stricter than for the EFSF. That's why everybody was so keen on getting a deal on the 2nd program. Tsipras knew this, and ignored it in favor of his referendum with that nonsensical question. Go figure.
Relaxed Muscle
Member
Greece should just default inmediatly and be done with it.
Rules are bound to be stretched when the occasion call. I feel this was one of these occasions.
That's an EU expertise, after all.
Also this:
maquiladora
Member
So it's looking pretty clear now. Either a deal happens by Sunday or Greece is out of the Euro.
nature boy
Member
The fact that Sundays' summit is a EU and not a Eurozone summit pretty much means shit has hit the fan.
D
Deleted member 231381
Unconfirmed Member
This didn't have to go via the ESM, though. That is and was an entirely political choice that is being forced on the ECB via Merkel through political pressure. If she is not willing to move in that, it means Grexit - Greece will not accept a deal worse than the one it rejected when the one it rejected was already completely infeasible by the analysis of both the IMF and ECB. Merkel is making the conscious decision to push Greece out of the Eurozone.
SymbiantXenos
Member
Guess that no vote = better negotiations turned out to be untrue as well.
3 for 3.
3 for 3.
I'm more inclined to believe that Sunday is "let's talk about Grexit" day.
So I guess France being more open towards a hair cut did not bother Merkel at all.
I think at this point they already are.
Greece had totally different (even better) preconditions than it has now.
Also Greece had still a EFSF programm which they cancelled (aka deny the proposal).
Now they are asking for a programm of the ESM (which is the successor of the ESFS) which has different, mostly tougher requirements to get.
This is basically what many people said about the referendum. Voting "no" would make it worse for Greece just due to the different ways the EFSF and ESM work.
Edit: this line is the key. Just simple logic:
D
Deleted member 231381
Unconfirmed Member
Greece does not *have* to go through the ESM. It is one of a number of options. The fact it is being touted as the sole option is a political choice, apparently largely by Germany. If the ESM is the basis of what a Greece proposal should have to be, Greece should default, preferably while showing Europe the middle finger.
Relaxed Muscle
Member
A few hours before Juncker was talking about several steps and not a large ESM deal, just a few hours ago. We know what happened...
SymbiantXenos
Member
If there's any deal reached Sunday it should be put to a referendum (partly for the lols as serious as this is)
Relaxed Muscle
Member
PdotMichael
Banned
We will never know it because Greece didn't do its homework.
Theonik
Member
Nah. This is the best outcome. If this is how they want it they can get fucked.
PJV3
Member
Typical EU socialist, a fucking waste of space.
This is fucking heart breaking.
D
Deleted member 231381
Unconfirmed Member
There's no time for a referendum. If Merkel insists on making the ESM the mainstay of any proposal, it needs to be passed by the Eurogroup members, making the deadline for acceptance the Sunday meeting. Greece would have to have the results for the referendum in by then, having made a proposal before than and having had it accepted before then too. This is the Grexit, folks.
Relaxed Muscle
Member
Seeing Merkel words, I think we know.
the same exact stuff was said 1 week before?
Ah thanks, didn't see that before.
Annoying Old Party Man
Member
Can a gaffer book me a ticket to somewhere? I need to get out of this country :-(
Theonik
Member
This should be Tsipras's reply if talks go where they appear to be going.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=r6UvXnOO1u4&t=1m53s
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=r6UvXnOO1u4&t=1m53s
Relaxed Muscle
Member
Seems Germany won't accept any other deal that dosn't go throught the ESM, they want to corner Greece and they will react like they should: defaulting.
Nuh, let's burn the last Euros we have in the banks and organize the biggest party the world has ever seen. Invite Lady Gaga.
D
Deleted member 231381
Unconfirmed Member
That would have some pretty severe consequences and I imagine would be challenged in the European courts or even just rejected by the Greek courts before then.
doubtful. Germany isn't even one of the hardliner's that are strictly against the Greek's plans.
There were several plans, for some reasons Greece and EU fucked up most plans until there was just one left and Greece said "naaaaah."
It was also expected that it is harder to get a total new plan for a 2-year time periode than extending an already existing plan for 4 more months. Pretty much everyone has mentioned this, dunno why this feels like "a new thing" now?
You realize she has half her party revolting and a lot of voters who are against her Euro politics right? You guys need to stop acting like Greek people are the only ones that have the right to hear their voices heard.
Theonik
Member
The Germans love their contracts.
This isn't UN club playtime in school.
If we apparently don't need the ESM, because there are more forgiving options, then why do we have the ESM in the first place?
And what are these more forgiving options anyway?
If we ignore contracts, we might as well go back to 'might makes right' politics. Why should anyone commit to mutual cooperation if contracts aren't worth their paper?
And what are these more forgiving options anyway?
If we ignore contracts, we might as well go back to 'might makes right' politics. Why should anyone commit to mutual cooperation if contracts aren't worth their paper?
It is almost like demanding a completely new deal requires more political buy-in than an extension of an existing one, something which Tsipiras made impossible with his referendum.
Greece can't survive that long. Payments need to happen almost immediately.
16 out of 18 countries don't really care about keeping Greece in the Euro. Germany isn't running the show, it is one of the many.
Relaxed Muscle
Member
This reminds me of what happened in Australia, something I saw yesterday, when they put strict controls on guns in the 96. It was the conservatives the ones that took the iniciative and the ones who took a political suicide for the greater good.
It was the Euro and the EU or Germany next elections, if you ask me, I feel the first two are more important, and not to even add all the Greek suffering.
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