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[Lunatic_Gamer]

GTA 6 is one of the most anticipated games of the modern era, and Take-Two Interactive has telegraphed a potential Holiday 2024 or early 2025 launch for the crime sim. According to a recent newsletter from games industry expert Joost van Dreunen, initial forecasts for Grand Theft Auto 6 sales are around 25 million.

"Assuming a 2025 launch window, which is optimistic given the publisher's propensity for delays, early estimates expect the new title to sell 25 million units," van Dreunen writes.

I reached out to van Dreunen for more clarity on sales, and was told that the 25 million figure is based on a 20% attach rate for the expected console installed base for 2024-2025. This implies that the PlayStation 5 and Xbox Series X/S installed bases will be around 125 million by the time, which makes sense as Sony expects the PS5 to hit 63.4 million shipments by March 2024.

Grand Theft Auto 6 game is expected to sell around 12-14 million copies at launch, which somewhat aligns GTA 6 with GTA 5's previous incredible 11.21 million copies sold within 24 hours.

GTA 6 is likewise expected to make $1 billion in sales revenues in its first week. For reference, GTA 5 broke $1 billion in sales in just 3 days.


Read more: https://www.tweaktown.com/news/91530/gta-6-expected-to-make-1-billion-sales-in-first-week/index.html

 

[64gigabyteram]

it won't make any money if you don't announce or release it.

 

[Represent.]

Massive lowball. GTA V did 1 billion in 3 days.

12-14 million in "at launch"? Zelda did 10 in ... a week?

This will do 20-30

They are putting out low estimates to be able to say "we shattered expectations"

 

[SJRB]

I honestly feel we're beyond the pale now and literally anything they're gonna show will disappoint.

There's just no way GTAVI can live up to the expectations.

Will still sell a bazillion copies nonetheless though.

 

[feynoob]

Massive lowball. GTA V did 1 billion in 3 days.

12-14 million in "at launch"? Zelda did 10 in ... a week?

This will do 20-30

They are putting out low estimates to be able to say "we shattered expectations"

gta6 is going to be massive.
Wont be suprised if it did 50m+ in first 2 weeks.

 

[ChorizoPicozo]

that is a flop. it should be in 24 hrs.

 

[Musashipan]

People still play that? Lol

 

[64gigabyteram]

gta6 is going to be massive.
Wont be suprised if it did 50m+ in first 2 weeks.

yep. too bad those first 2 weeks are nonexistent because rockstar are resting on their laurels, dragging us along with a carrot on a stick

 

[BrutalTruth_]

People still play that? Lol

Day one baby

 

[Captain Toad]

People still play that? Lol

What?

 

[Moses85]

People still play that? Lol

Not yet, but later?

 

[feynoob]

yep. too bad those first 2 weeks are nonexistent because rockstar are resting on their laurels, dragging us along with a carrot on a stick

Why work hard, when a 2013 game is still selling like hot cakes in this age.

 

[Robb]

I don’t doubt it. It’ll probably have a big GAAS focus as well so that we’ll have to wait even longer for the next one.

Five generations of GTAVI incoming.

 

[Hugare]

Some things to consider:

* GTA V came out at the end of that generation. The install base was already huge, people who wanted a PS3/360 already had one. So I wonder how many consoles it will sell by being current gen only at the "start" of this gen. There will be a huge boom, I presume.
* Therefore, I wonder how many copies it will sell for being current gen only. I believe that it will be limited. Someone mentioned TotK numbers, but Switch sales are massive. There will be what, 40M PS5s sold by the time this comes out? Maybe 45?
* GTA Online made the brand even bigger. I expect 20M copies at launch.

 

[ThaMonkeyClaw]

it won't make any money if you don't announce or release it.

It's Schrödinger's Game, it both exists and doesn't exist at the same time...

 

[Ronin_7]

2 billion more likely since it includes PC.

 

[Thick Thighs Save Lives]

Some things to consider:

* GTA V came out at the end of that generation. The install base was already huge, people who wanted a PS3/360 already had one. So I wonder how many consoles it will sell by being current gen only at the "start" of this gen. There will be a huge boom, I presume.
* Therefore, I wonder how many copies it will sell for being current gen only. I believe that it will be limited. Someone mentioned TotK numbers, but Switch sales are massive. There will be what, 40M PS5s sold by the time this comes out? Maybe 45?
* GTA Online made the brand even bigger. I expect 20M copies at launch.

I agree with most of your analysis, however, the PS5 is already at 38.4M units shipped as of March 31st. Sony aims to sell 25 million PS5s in the current FY23 which ends on March 31st 2024. If GTA6 launches in November 2024, then we can presume that they'll ship an additional 10M PS5 units between March 31st of that year and by the time the game launches. That's a total of 73M PS5 consoles into the hands of customers, and now let's say that Xbox will also be at or around half of that (36M). This means there will be an install size of 110M current-gen consoles, so 20-25M copies sold at launch seems achievable to me, even if they'll be going with a staggered PC release like they've done with GTA5.

 

[SlimySnake]

Some things to consider:

* GTA V came out at the end of that generation. The install base was already huge, people who wanted a PS3/360 already had one. So I wonder how many consoles it will sell by being current gen only at the "start" of this gen. There will be a huge boom, I presume.
* Therefore, I wonder how many copies it will sell for being current gen only. I believe that it will be limited. Someone mentioned TotK numbers, but Switch sales are massive. There will be what, 40M PS5s sold by the time this comes out? Maybe 45?
* GTA Online made the brand even bigger. I expect 20M copies at launch.

Hogwarts launched only on next gen consoles and easily sold 12 million in 2 weeks. Most people who buy games day one have already bought next gen consoles.

 

[nial]

So I wonder how many consoles it will sell by being current gen only at the "start" of this gen.

You're acting like GTA6 is releasing next week, this won't come until 2025 at the earliest.

 

[64gigabyteram]

You're acting like GTA6 is releasing next week, this won't come until 2025 at the earliest.

starfield was announced in 2020, and it's still not out yet. GOWR in 2020 as well, and it came out 2 years later. Hell, GTA5 itself got a trailer in 2011 before the release in 2013.

GTA6 will sell 2x-3x what those games ever sold and yet all we have are rumors and leaks.

 

[Captain Toad]

yep. too bad those first 2 weeks are nonexistent because rockstar are resting on their laurels, dragging us along with a carrot on a stick

They'd be stupid to sell GTA6 when GTA5 is still selling every month as if it just launched.

 

[Thirty7ven]

It will make that in 24h.

 

[j.k.2021]

..On first day.

 

[The Lunch Legend]

 

[Represent.]

I know people who literally only play GTA. Not CoD and GTA, just GTA.

There are probably millions of them.

GTA 6 is the only game I know of that gets news updates reported on CNN.

Its going to be an event type release. Midnight launches, celebrity events, etc.

 

[Draxon Gamer]

I know people who literally only play GTA. Not CoD and GTA, just GTA.

There are probably millions of them.

GTA 6 is the only game I know of that gets news updates reported on CNN.

Its going to be an event type release. Midnight launches, celebrity events, etc.

There are people who only play COD, Fortnite, and Minecraft as well, the big 4.

Fifa and Madden used to be part of the chain but EA have been screwing over their players so much in recent years it seems that buyers are purchasing other games as well. I used to know people who only brought those sports games for 25 years who now also play something else. I mean these are the guys who will pull out Fifa 95 to play with friends or Madden 2008.

 

[GigaBowser]

GTA driving and open world is goods

Make the on feet controls and missions better in this games please thank you my friends

 

[Gamer79]

I hope to God it does not go woke. Woke products make me sick. Hopefully it is worth the wait.

 

[Kikorin]

Zelda did 10m in 3 days just on Switch, GTA VI is going to sell like 25m in 5/7 days IMHO. When is going to be announced the hype will explode, people are waiting for it to drop by a decade.

 

[TheKratos]

Massive lowball. GTA V did 1 billion in 3 days.

12-14 million in "at launch"? Zelda did 10 in ... a week?

This will do 20-30

They are putting out low estimates to be able to say "we shattered expectations"

This is some analyst predicting it. Not Rockstar/Take2.

 

[Myths]

That’s gonna be easy af

 

[FrankWza]

It will make that in 24h.

The pre-order numbers will guarantee that. Especially if they do some kind of online exclusive bonus.

 

[Arsic]

I didn’t like gta4 or 5. Got both long after release m. Red dead 1&2 though were day one and incredible.

This time I’ll likely buy a gta game day one just because I enjoyed rdr2 so much.

 

[Hot5pur]

Even though it costs next to nothing nowadays, I still can't bring myself to play GTAV. Seems incredibly boring.
Maybe 6 will be better but judging by how painfully boring RDR2 looked I doubt it. Granted this is just my taste, when games try to be too much like real life they become a bit of a chore.

 

[Dynasty8]

I honestly think it'll do that the first day.

 

[LimanimaPT]

The game will be adapted to "modern audieces" so it will probably flop. You can't kill innocent bystanders anymore.

 

[Silver Wattle]

I hope the story is better, I couldn't get far in V as I found the story so damn boring and gameplay in the early stages very limited.

 

[sankt-Antonio]

With on foot controls like MGS: Phantom Pain, it will sell 50mill in two weeks... with the shitty GTA controls i wont buy it, so I dont care ...

 

[Tomi]

If you see how many gta V sold new gta need to make 1 billion in a DAY!
Not less

 

[Lucifers Beard]

That all? I imagine it will do better. It’s been 10 years since the last game and fans are going to lap that shit up, especially following RDR2 critical acclaim. I just hope it releases day and date on PC.

 

[Zok310]

Massive lowball. GTA V did 1 billion in 3 days.

12-14 million in "at launch"? Zelda did 10 in ... a week?

This will do 20-30

They are putting out low estimates to be able to say "we shattered expectations"

They would have to sell to 100% of all xbox gamers and what? 50% of PS5 gamers to hit 20-30 million, that shit ain't happening. Totk is on a platform that have over 120 million gamers. ps5 and xbsx combined is a lil past 55 million combined.

 

[genesisblock]

I'll be amazed if it can live up to the expectations if it ends up just a bigger GTAV. The way they're setting expectations is like they're preparing for a meta 97. Good of them if they can but I hope it doesn't become the "highlight" of this gen if they're sticking to their current game design.

 

[KungFucius]

If this releases on PC simultaneously they will destroy that figure. In 2025 maybe they have a similar install base of consoles that they had in 2013 so it may not do as well, but the hype will be insane. GTA V launched right at the end of the gen back then.

 

[hinch7]

Its been so long since we've had a new GTA. It will easily blow past that in a couple of days, never mind a week.

 

[GHound]

This is a rather conservative sales forecast. This is going to end up setting new records as the biggest launch in entertainment history.
However, there is no reality in which this game lives up to the absolutely impossible expectations that millions of people have built up for it in the time since GTAV's release.

 

[Perrott]

Some things to consider:

* GTA V came out at the end of that generation. The install base was already huge, people who wanted a PS3/360 already had one. So I wonder how many consoles it will sell by being current gen only at the "start" of this gen. There will be a huge boom, I presume.
* Therefore, I wonder how many copies it will sell for being current gen only. I believe that it will be limited. Someone mentioned TotK numbers, but Switch sales are massive. There will be what, 40M PS5s sold by the time this comes out? Maybe 45?

There are going to be +70M PS5's out there by GTA VI's earliest possible release window (Fall 2024), with the entire next-gen install base being around or larger than 100M consoles, when accounting for Xbox Series S and X.

 

[rhodesianshepard]

They would have to sell to 100% of all xbox gamers and what? 50% of PS5 gamers to hit 20-30 million, that shit ain't happening. Totk is on a platform that have over 120 million gamers. ps5 and xbsx combined is a lil past 55 million combined.

By the time GTA 6 comes out, there will be well over 100 million consoles sold between Xbox Series and Playstation 5. Not to mention the bundles it will no doubt sell with. It will absolutely crush TOTK numbers. Nothing holds a candle to GTA. GTA 5 has sold 180 million copies. That's roughly 5 times as much as BOTW

 

[deriks]

Massive lowball. GTA V did 1 billion in 3 days.

12-14 million in "at launch"? Zelda did 10 in ... a week?

This will do 20-30

They are putting out low estimates to be able to say "we shattered expectations"

It's to show something like "we're humble"

Everyone:

 

[Lukaku's First Touch]

People still play that? Lol

No, nobody plays one if not THE most popular game of all time. Edgy.

 

[Dr_Ifto]

I am not a huge fan of GTA games, but I will get the game because they are fun as hell. I can easily see up to 15 million first week if not more.