I greatly fear DVD is neither fish nor fowl - it lacks critical features
that are uncompromisingly demanded by the mass market while incorporating
other features that actively turn off the videophile market.
Defects for the mass market:
Physical ruggedness
All CD-like technologies have to be treated much like the old vinyl
records did - with considerable care. The rental market in particular
needs this. It also cuts into some secondary revenue streams -
rewind fees for example.
Ability to record copyrighted material
Laws or no, people want to record copyrighted material. This
is an important factor in the purchase decision. Lack of recordability
is one of the primary reasons LD never made it beyond the videophile
market. Don't believe me? Do the words 'DAT Tape' ring a bell?
Ability to record *several hours* of material
Right now it looks like to me it won't be able to record
more than quite short amounts of even current broadcast material,
_if and when_ cheap recorders become available.
Short technological horizion
With HDTV poised for launch, buying into a _NEW_ technology that faces
technological obsolecence before it even achieves 'critical mass' for
the current television technology seems a recipie for disaster.
Eight track tape anyone?
Defects for the videophile market:
Artifacting
'But you can't see them from typical viewing distances' doesn't
cut ice with the videophile market. It doesn't *MATTER* if you
can't see it. This is the market that debates whether or not
you can hear phase inversion in audio, complains that
16 bit digital sound is not 'good enough' and is unhappy with
anything displayed on a screen with less resolution than a
RGB monitor (16 x 9, of course).
Regional Lockouts
Videophiles are not at all happy with having to purchase multiple
players just to work around regional lockouts. When they are laying
out well over $1,000 for a high end player they _resent_ having to
do it more than once. (Yes - there are _some_ players that can
be hacked around the lockouts. I'll give you good odds they won't
last. Not unless lockouts go away altogether.)
Macrovision.
'nuff said. You will never convince most videophiles that something
with macrovision on it is better than something without it.
There *ARE* significant pluses:
For the mass market:
Better video quality than VHS.
For most people, DVD represents a big jump. They _have never seen_
even LDs. The 'ooooh' effect is considerable.
CD quality sound.
Same thing.
For the videophile market:
Anamorphic mapping
The chance of getting nearly *every* movie 16x9 leaves many
drooling with lust.
5.1 sound
Goodbye 'stereo'. Again a cause for drooling.
Media stability
The chance to get nearly _every_ movie permanently without
degradation over time, rather than just those ones put to LD.
Special effects
Multiple angles, multiple audio tracks, etc.
DVD is cool. I have debated several times whether to buy into it or not.
And given a choice between a title I really want available ONLY on VHS or
DVD at some point I may yet buy into it (my experience so far has been
that, of the titles I *REALLY* want, they are available on LD+DVD+VHS, or
LD+VHS, or VHS only). For me, the curve right now is VHS < DVD < LD. For
the mass market, I think the curve is not even _that_ favorable due to the
lack of easy recordability: LD < DVD < VHS.
Will it succeed? Maybe. Never underestimate the power of marketing. But I
would say it remains 50:50 right now. It is noticable that _even the
manufacturers_ concede it has not taken off as fast as they hoped - it is
at least a year behind the curve they projected. This is not a death knell
- - but it may be a warning sign of trouble to come.