HyperionX said:
Though for the next 5 years, it's is likely buying or renting a movie through the mail will be faster than downloading most of the time.
Exactly. The ONLY conditions under which 'digital distribution' becomes viable:
1. Download speeds increase DRAMATICALLY. Not just slightly. DRAMATICALLY. 50 GB releases are a reality for 1080p content, and I certainly wouldn't want to have to download that much information.
2. A 'STEAM' based system that allows me to access content just by being connected to the internet by a simple player that has huge storage capacity. My library is connected to a single ACCOUNT that can be accessed anywhere. With as much controversy regarding the support for HD-DVD/Blu-Ray, it seems like it will be a cold day in Hell when these studios can ever decide on a single distribution system like this.
3. Hard Drives / Storage Mediums because DRAMATICALLY larger. To compensate for the 'STEAM BASED' system above, if you have or want a huge library of movies, you're going to need a huge hard drive to store all of this information.
Given the above 3 conditions, Digital Distribution is nothing more than a pipe dream at this point, and I don't see it being viable until 2030+.
If they can somehow get download speeds fast enough, it may be possible to forego huge hard drives if this centralized 'STEAM'-esque service can provide the bandwidth to push 54+ Mbs. This would require 10-20x the download speeds we currently enjoy with broadband, typically. And whoever is providing this service is going to have to fork over some serious cash for infrastructure costs.