DarkJediKnight said:
That is not the point. Blu-ray movies will outsell HD DVD movies this Q4, I'm sure. But that means jack! Shrek3 and Transformers will nulify the sales of Pirates and Spiderman. Instead of maybe a 3:1+ ratio it might still be 2:1 or less. Which ultimately means a stalemate and this damn war continues.
I think you are overestimating HD DVD player and add-on sales in the face of this blow to HD media in general. Will HD DVD player and 360 add-on sales be up for the holiday season? Of course they will. But they're not going to touch PS3 sales.
Nothing is going to nullify the sales of Pirates and Spider-Man to old and new PS3 owners in the HD field -- those films' target audiences are the main install base for PlayStation 3s.
I know this Paramount thing sucks, but without another 2-3 HD DVD money hats, this shit is going to go off pretty much as usual. Transformers/Shrek 3 is the MAJOR coup here, and they'll gain HD DVD a few weeks worth of percentage boosts, but the blue Pac-Man is still going to be munching along on watermelon slices as he has been all year. This is no stalemate, it's just a delay. It
could fuck up HD formats in general, but I'm going to remain optimistic. If Warner Bros went HD DVD exclusive,
then we'd be at a stalemate. But if they went Blu-ray exclusive, the war would be over within 6 months.
Seriously, though... as long as the PS3 keeps moving at least +/- 100,000 units a month (way more than that starting soon thanks to the holidays) then there's no way for HD DVD to catch up outside of giving players away for free (not that I'd put that past them...). Multiplatform titles will still sell better on Blu-ray, and Sony/Disney/Fox exclusives will have a much better shot at blowing away Universal/Paramount exclusives thanks to the much higher Blu-ray capable install base. The sales aren't going to just turn around, and the studios
will move to where the sales are, whether it's now (Weinstein) or later (Universal, Paramount). Hell, sure sounds like Paramount has some upcoming Blu-ray releases anyway, if the restrictions on their exclusivity contract turn out to be legitimate.
So, yeah. The formats are either both fucked, or it's business as usual until Q1 2009 when Paramount is out of their contract and it no longer seems realistic for HD DVD to put up a fight. I really see absolutely no way for HD DVD to win this war outside of somehow convincing Disney to abandon ship. If they did, I'd abandon ship too -- as I've stated on numerous occasions, I am for a one-format future, regardless of what that format may be -- but HD DVD
still does not make any sense as a victorious format.
You know what the saddest thing about this entire situation is, besides the delay/loss of a one-format future? That we're this much fucking farther from Criterion jumping on the high def bandwagon. I feel like we were so close before, and this is the kind of announcement that is going to make them take ten steps back to observe for another year.