VanMardigan
has calmed down a bit.
Ah, I see. I was going to mention the projector, since I know you have one, and the Dell projector I borrowed this weekend was both loud and hot.
Ignatz Mouse said:Van-- noise doesn't bother me in games at all. Movies are another matter.
I don't even like my projector fan, and it's pretty quiet.
technewsworld.com said:I think that, for all of us, the battle for the next generation of DVD technology has gotten really old. This is especially true for the studios, which are well off their revenue targets.
This week, we'll look at why DreamWorks and Paramount backed HD-DVD, effectively assuring that Blu-ray will lose whether HD-DVD wins or not -- and it may still not win either.
Blu-ray: RIP
I was one of the folks who thought that Blu-ray was going to eliminate HD-DVD and by this time HD-DVD would be toast. In fact, I was one of the analysts who helped convince Time Warner to hedge its bets and go with both formats.
However, this was all before I knew the cost of the Blu-ray technology, and it was based on the assumption that Sony would never be stupid enough to price itself out of the game console market, effectively giving it to and Microsoft.
Given my history with Sony, you'd think I'd know better and would have assumed it would be that stupid. That likely would have resulted in a lot less pain all around.
PlayStation3 Impact
Not only was Blu-ray too expensive, the technology wasn't as far along as Sony led us to believe. The delays not only make the PS3 too expensive; they made it late. That was effectively a one-two punch, knocking Sony out of the lead so far in the game console business. Now, Sony is dead last by a significant margin.
This means that developers, instead of favoring Sony with their best stuff, are now concentrating on the Xbox first, and increasingly the Wii. That's because both have more homes, and thus represent a greater revenue opportunity, than Sony does.
So instead of the PS3 ensuring Blu-ray's success, right now it appears that Blu-ray may have effectively killed the PS3, at least in terms of market leadership. We'll have to wait until the PS4 before Sony has a chance to come back.
Not a Viable Data Storage Option
Blu-ray's biggest advantage is storage capacity; however, storage has grown so fast that you can get a 750 GB Seagate external drive for less than US$250.
To back that up on a 25 GB Blu-ray recorder would take 30 Blu-ray disks and more time than I think anyone in their right mind would accept. Neither HD-DVD nor Blu-ray are likely to become backup platforms, and most of the data we move still fits easily on a standard dual-layer DVD.
With increasingly high-speed networks, people are using things like BitTorrent to use big files or portable high-capacity hard drives. So as transport, they aren't particularly practical either.
The high-volume home for HD Optical disks remains as a replacement for the DVD. The studios, which are not doing anywhere near as well as they'd like, desperately need something to drive revenues higher.
Both Could Fail
That won't happen until both one standard is clear and the related players drop below $200. They need both to happen or the market won't move. Currently, Blu-ray is running at more than twice the target price on players and HD-DVD is about 15 percent over target. In the case of the Xbox 360 accessory, it's actually about 15 percent under target.
This means that if the studios have any chance this year of getting a large ramp -- and I would include Wal-Mart Latest News about Wal-Mart, Amazon and anyone else that sells HD movies -- it has to be HD-DVD. Blu-ray simply can't get there.
I think all realize, or should, time isn't unlimited either. We are already talking about what comes after HD-DVD and Blu-ray, and scalers are getting so good that increasingly many are arguing that you don't need either now.
In other words, while Blu-ray can't win, in my view, there is still an excellent chance the market will simply bypass both if one doesn't ramp to high volume this year. In that instance, everyone loses.
Cause for Change
I think Paramount and DreamWorks saw this outcome and are trying to avoid it. While they did get an estimated $250 million incentive to move, that doesn't change the result. The studio execs likely realize if revenues don't improve, many of them may not be around by this time next year. Unemployment is a rather impressive motivator for change.
So, as of right now, I think it is reasonably obvious Blu-ray lost. The only question is whether HD-DVD will be allowed to win; and the decision may be up to Time Warner or Disney and not Sony or Toshiba Latest News about Toshiba.
If both lose, the long-term strategic fallout for Sony and Disney will be both impressive and memorable in terms of either company's influence going forward -- in fact, for Sony, I'm not sure things actually could get much worse.
VanMardigan said:Analyst Rob Enderle on why the Paramount news devastated Blu Ray (and possibly HD media):
VanMardigan said:Analyst Rob Enderle on why the Paramount news devastated Blu Ray (and possibly HD media):
jjasper said:Isn't he the guy that advertises for MS?
Ignatz Mouse said:His company specializes in "zero-cost marketing" (aka viral marketing, I assume) and he lists Toshiba and Microsoft as clients.
He also has gone on and on about how Zune would beat iPod last Christmas and what a great game Shadowrun was. Makes sense that he's saying HDM formats might both die, since that's the MS-desired outcome.
Don't expect any of the people looking for paychecks in Bill Hunt's pockets to care about any of that, however.
Forsete said:Well that about sums it up..
Anyway, on to more important matters.
Discshop one of the biggest online movie and game retailers in Sweden.. They sell about 1 million movies and games each year.. Here is the HD-DVD and Blu-Ray top 20 from them.
Ceb said:HD-DVD is nearly non-existant in a lot of EU countries. A lot of big retail chains don't carry HD-DVD products. Which is why Paramount's move was extra boneheaded. BD to HD-DVD ratio in Europe is... what, 3:1?
VanMardigan said:If he is in fact a viral marketer, I apologize. The name sounded vaguely familiar and when he talked about suggesting to Warner that they go format neutral, I figured he was a trustworthy source.
Ignatz Mouse said:Makes sense that he's saying HDM formats might both die, since that's the MS-desired outcome.
VanMardigan said:If he is in fact a viral marketer, I apologize. The name sounded vaguely familiar and when he talked about suggesting to Warner that they go format neutral, I figured he was a trustworthy source.
Chiggs said:Stuff like this makes Microsoft a scary...and scummy...company
VanMardigan said:Except it's not entirely true. MS wants HD DVD to win. They also want digital distribution to eventually take over and they want to be at the forefront of that. In the same way that cd's and downloadable songs can coexist for some time, so can DD and HD discs. MS believes that and is investing in both.
VanMardigan said:Except it's not entirely true. MS wants HD DVD to win. They also want digital distribution to eventually take over and they want to be at the forefront of that. In the same way that cd's and downloadable songs can coexist for some time, so can DD and HD discs. MS believes that and is investing in both.
fortified_concept said:Yeah it shows from the article you posted from the MS viral marketeer.
Laurent said:I don't get how Facebook Polls work... Everytime there is an interesting question, it's usually impossible to answer because the survey is already completed...
Look at the HD-DVD vs. Blu-ray results...
hahaVanMardigan said:Exactly.
Crayon Shinchan said:I agree with this to a certain extent; although I have no doubts MS would fully like the balance to be in favour of DD. Heavily in favour if they have their way about it.
VanMardigan said:If he is in fact a viral marketer, I apologize. The name sounded vaguely familiar and when he talked about suggesting to Warner that they go format neutral, I figured he was a trustworthy source.
lupin23rd said:Christ, another Rob Enderle rant?
He says he thought BLU-RAY would win by now? Every six months the guy posts a new article on why HD-DVD has already won.
Rob Enderle is a joke. A total joke. And anyone who listens to him and takes him seriously is a moran.
He is the "Principal Analyst" of "The Enderle Group" which consists of him, and his wife. Some "Group."
The man is a quote machine, that's all. If you are a lazy journalist, and don't have anything left to write, but still need to fill up a few more column inches, you give Enderle a call. That's what he's good for.
Anyone following Apple and Apple's stock knows what a total fool Enderle is.
*He predicted the iPod would flop. In 2002, he predicted Apple would drop below 2% market share.
*He predicted the IBM Power PC processor was dead and Apple would be "forced" to go to x86 processors in 2003. (Of course now we know that Apple wouldn't switch to Intel tech until it went multi-core, last year, and IBM's Power PC is far from dead, since it is the base tech for all three current-gen consoles.)
*In 2004, he honestly suggested that Apple should merge with Sun, as that would be the only thing to save the company.
*In 2004, he predicted the HP-branded iPod would sell far more units than the Apple-branded one.
*In 2005, he predicted sales disaster for Apple because of the announced switch to Intel processors.
*He also predicted that Vista would be such a huge instant success, taking off like wildfire with consumers, that Apple would have to find a partner to help them design their next OS to compete.
*In 2006 he said iTunes sales were "collapsing" when in fact they grew 84% in the first three quarters of that year.
*This year, Enderle said the LG Prada phone was better than the iPhone. [EDIT] (What a remarkable coincidence that the LG Prada was redesigned to run a Microsoft OS!)
*Current Enderle "doom-and-gloom" prediction for Apple? Ruckus will kill iTunes by 2009. Let me repeat that. Enderle predicts Ruckus will kill iTunes by 2009. That's 19 months from now. [EDIT: Now 14 months, Enderle...how's it going?] iTunes will be dead. Ruckus will be on top. In 19 [14] months. Ruckus. The service that doesn't work on anyone's iPod. Ruckus. The service that doesn't work on anyone's Zune, either. Ruckus. By 2009.
StoOgE said:actually, if you listen to MS, both they and Toshiba view HDDVD with its required internet connection and persistent storage (which is exandable on all players) to be a future way to get DD.
Forsete said:The 3:1 figure is worldwide IIRC. It wouldnt surpise me if it was more than 3:1 in a lot of European countries.
Yeah, Paramount you retards, there is a world outside the US where both Blu Ray and HD-DVD are pretty much dead.
rc213 said:How much storage space do the Standalones normally have and how do you expand it?
StoOgE said:right now they have very small amounts enough to DL some trailers/wallpaper, but they all have USB connections which would allow for HDD's to be added to the units. On top of that obviously the plan would be to expand the size of built in drives by the time DD were to take over. Plus, the managed copy issue would allow for owners to DL movies to a PC harddrive/set top box and then use a Media Center device to put that content on any device in the home.
But, even the very first HDDVD players ever released would be able to take advantage of DD 10 years from now with a USB drive added on to it.
There is a reason HDi is built into Vista. MS wants HDDVD to win, and HDi to become the defacto programming language found in movied.. be it physical media or eventually DD.
DarkJediKnight said:Amazon has a sale now that if you purchase 3 Blu-ray or HD DVD movies, the 4th one is free.
Hotarubi said:In addition to the b3g4, a number of HD-DVDs are buy 2 get the 3rd free. These are confirmed as working with the promotion:
12 Monkeys
40 Year Old Virgin
300
Adventures of Robin Hood
Batman Begins
The Big Lebowski
Blood Diamond
Blue Planet [IMAX]
The Bourne Supremacy
Casino
Charlie and the Chocolate Factory
Dune
Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind
Fear & Loathing in Las Vegas
The Game
Goodfellas
King Kong
Mallrats
The Mummy
The Mummy Returns
Pitch Black
Road Warrior
The Searchers
Serenity
Shaun of the Dead
Superman - The Movie
T3
TMNT
For once, HD gets the better end of the deal.![]()
jjasper said:working with the deal as in if I buy 4 movies I get 2 free from it along with the fourth one being free movie from the other deal?
Cause if so I am about to buy some movies
jjasper said:working with the deal as in if I buy 4 movies I get 2 free from it along with the fourth one being free movie from the other deal?
StoOgE said::lol
I somehow doubt that, but I'll try.
Hotarubi said:That's one of the most confusing sentences I've ever seen.
Hotarubi said:That's one of the most confusing sentences I've ever seen.
It's one deal or the other. Buy any three HD/BR titles, get a fourth one for free; there are selected HD/BR titles that will combine when you buy two and you'll get a third free.
Chiggs said:Stuff like this makes Microsoft a scary...and scummy...company