Here is where we are:
Sonys yields have improved a bit this summer and are up to around 50% depending on how much data is on the disc. The more data, the lower the yields, the lower the data, the higher the yield number goes, but 50% is just about max right now (give or take a percentage point or two).
As for independent replicators, there are four majors that are capable of doing BD50s according to my sources. They are Cinram, Deluxe, Panasonic, & Infodisc. Of these four, one of them (unnamed by the request of my source at that company) is getting yields on BD50s up there with Sony in the 50% range. The other three cant get above 10%, but Sony is lending a hand to them to increase their yields. I am assuming they will get things in line based upon the one independent that I referenced above who has been able to increase yields.
An interesting side note to this though is the yields on BD25s, that are much lower than I thought they would be. Right now, the are hovering in the 60-70% range and are in the same scenario as the BD50s when it comes to the amount of data on the disc. The lower the amount of data, the higher the yields are. At this point in the game, I would have expected the single layer discs to be much higher than they currently are.
Another thing that should be noted is that Paramount/Dreamworks was using one of the three replicators that couldnt get the yields up above 10% on BD50s. Could this have been one of the things that precipitated their move to HD DVD?
So, where does it leave us? For the most part, nothing has changed from what I reported last week, other than there is one major replicator of BD50 discs that have improved yields, but the other three majors cant get them to work as of yet. These other companies are sending the work to either Sony or the other independent to do their BD50 work, which Im sure raises their costs (outsourcing while their equipment sits idle
never a good thing in manufacturing). The good news is that the BDA is able to keep up with demand at this time, even with the lower yields and less manufacturing capacity, mainly due to the fact that sales are pretty pathetic on both formats compared to DVD. But with player adoption growing, disc sales growing, and the holiday buying season just around the corner, yield rates could become a much bigger issue the next 6 months.
Now, on to HD DVD: As Amir has stated before, there are literally hundreds of HD DVD production lines that are available in the marketplace. Since it is essentially the same process to make a HD DVD vs. a DVD, the manufacturing process is much easier to implement and yields are a lot higher. Jeff stated some numbers earlier that HD15s and HD30s are above 95%, and I can confirm those numbers as well from a couple of well-placed sources. But, Ive hit a stone wall when it comes to the combo discs, which no one can seem to get the yield numbers on these. My assumption is that they arent as high as the HD30 and HD15 numbers since there is the extra process that needs to take place (which Amir has spoken about). Could this be one of the reasons why Combos have been limited to new releases only and not on catalog titles? Or, was it that the studios (Universal especially) didnt see the need to use combos anymore on the catalog titles because it wasnt helping sales?
Comparing the two camps on this, HD DVD is in a much better position (from a manufacturing perspective). First, due to the disc thickness, the drying time of the disc making process is 50% shorter. When you throw in that the yields are about twice as high, that means you essentially have a 4-1 advantage in actually making the discs in favor of HD DVD. Again, right now that isnt a big deal since there arent that many discs being pressed, but with wide adoption of both formats, HD DVD will have a manufacturing edge unless yields increase for BD50s. Even if they can get the yields up to above 95%, they still take longer to make than an HD DVD, so in order to output the same amount of discs they will need to work twice as long or spend extra money on another fabrication line, which just adds to the overall cost.