Support NeoGAF

[Chiggs]

Jesus Christ, I have purchased 6 Warner Bros. Movies in the past week. And I just added BladeRunner to the list.

 

[OokieSpookie]

Are any of the titles you bought with it affected by a Warner move? Me, on the other hand, I own Batman Begins, 300, and Happy Feet (edit: and the Matrix Trilogy). I could probably sell the HD DVD version of Happy Feet for the Blu Ray version, but I'm not replacing 300 or Batman Begins until comparable releases for those come out on Camp Blu. That's if Warner goes Blu.

If they go red, there won't be any difference in my buying habits, since I already prefer the HD DVD version of Warner films and I don't own any Warner Blu Rays.

Batman Begins is the only real thing that I watch on hd, Heroes I do not even think I have opened yet, Hot Fuzz is a combo so either way I am fine, and Shaun while a loss I will live with for the time being.
If Warner did go blu, Universal going neutral would not be very far behind.

 

[captive]

Jesus Christ, I have purchased 6 Warner Bros. Movies in the past week. And I just added BladeRunner to the list.

I went nuts on warner movies last week, i got 12. >.> BOGO is the death of me.
And only one was a rebuy.

 

[OokieSpookie]

:lol Deadmeat and Superkyro posting in the comments section

Yeah Deadmeat rose from the grave on blu-ray.com too rather loudly..and briefly.

 

[Chiggs]

I went nuts on warner movies last week, i got 12. >.> BOGO is the death of me.
And only one was a rebuy.

We're single-handedly winning the war for Blu-ray! Congrats to you and me!

Or not. :lol

 

[LJ11]

Classic. Deadmeat called my A3 a rebadged chinese player though. I'm not sure how I feel about that. At a minimum, I suppose I should stop licking it.

Unintentional, but funny nonetheless. :lol

 

[Ignatz Mouse]

If Warner goes Red, I expect Fox/Disney to follow in 2008. If they go Blu, I expect Uni to follow, with Paramount by the end of 2008. I don't see how Warner picking a side won't give that side a clear advantage in terms of momentum for 2008.

WHy would WB changing sides affect Disney and Fox? Disney seems deeply invested with the Jobs/Apple connection all the promo they're doing, and Fox is the one that's gung-ho on the BD+ stuff.

If WB goes Red, all I see is equilibrium-- whereas right now, Blu has the distinct advantage.

 

[avaya]

More on DJK's article!

http://www.deadlinehollywooddaily.c...grab-or-intensified-blu-rayhd-dvd-format-war/

It seems Pali Research MD Richard S. Greenfield is the same person who broke the Paramount deal in August.

 

[Ignatz Mouse]

More on DJK's article!

http://www.deadlinehollywooddaily.c...grab-or-intensified-blu-rayhd-dvd-format-war/

It seems Pali Research MD Richard S. Greenfield is the same person who broke the Paramount deal in August.

That certainly gets my attention more than this rumor has, to date.

 

[VanMardigan]

WHy would WB changing sides affect Disney and Fox? Disney seems deeply invested with the Jobs/Apple connection all the promo they're doing, and Fox is the one that's gung-ho on the BD+ stuff.

In the same way that getting Warner to go Blu would affect Uni and Paramount. Fox/Disney were gung ho about Divx, too. Companies have to reevaluate their position after big events, and the Warner move would be the biggest to date.

 

[OokieSpookie]

WHy would WB changing sides affect Disney and Fox? Disney seems deeply invested with the Jobs/Apple connection all the promo they're doing, and Fox is the one that's gung-ho on the BD+ stuff.

If WB goes Red, all I see is equilibrium-- whereas right now, Blu has the distinct advantage.

Disney is going nowhere, they are more blu than Sony.
Disney even has paid reps visiting various best buys to stand around the high def section answering questions and showing demos.

And for those interested, ths site that people keep linking to today is the same one that was the first non insider to break the Paramount deal.
Ack beat by Avaya

 

[VanMardigan]

Disney is going nowhere, they are more blu than Sony.
Disney even has paid reps visiting various best buys to stand around the high def section answering questions and showing demos.

I would say Uni is even more entrenched in HD DVD, so far as having an executive be the top HD DVD evangelist. Will that matter if WB goes Blu?

 

[OokieSpookie]

I would say Uni is even more entrenched in HD DVD, so far as having an executive be the top HD DVD evangelist. Will that matter if WB goes Blu?

Time will tell

 

[VanMardigan]

Time will tell

No, not really, since only one of the outcomes (WB going blu, or WB going red) is going to happen, meaning we'll never know if we were both right.

 

[Elios83]

In the same way that getting Warner to go Blu would affect Uni and Paramount. Fox/Disney were gung ho about Divx, too. Companies have to reevaluate their position after big events, and the Warner move would be the biggest to date.

It's a difference balance though, with Warner on the Blu side it becomes inventory time for Toshiba, it has no sense for a consumer to buy a format supported only by two studios (with one of them publishing an important part of their catalogue, the Spielberg's movies, on BR too), and those two remaining majors cannot stay on a sinking ship. With Warner on the HD-DVD the support becomes equally spilt between the two so there's no logic behind the others will jump on HD-DVD too, everyone can afford to stay in their positions if they want to. Warner said it's their desire to end the format war and at this point the most secure thing to do to achieve that goal is going Blu.

 

[justjohn]

warner's 2008 lineup is immense. whoever gets them exclusively will practically have won it.

 

[Ignatz Mouse]

Elios83 just said what I was going to.

Or, put another way: Uni *is* as entrenched as Disney, which is why a 2:1 split so far hasn't moved them, and it would take WB swinging the ration even further to do so. OTOH, WB moving to Red wouldn't provide the same kind of leverage, since it would effectively be just levelling the playing field. I think you'd have to see the same kind of imbalance in sales (or greater) than we do now to move Disney and Fox. And Sony/Columbia/Tristar will move only after they're the last ones left.

 

[VanMardigan]

With Warner on the HD-DVD the support becomes equally spilt between the two so there's no logic behind the others will jump on HD-DVD too, everyone can afford to stay in their positions if they want to.

Yeah, but Blu Ray will have lost about 35-40% of its potential catalog in the span of a year. It will be an even software situation when it wasn't before. To suggest that the situation wouldn't cause a ripple in the BDA allegiances (which will be reflected in CE support as well) is naive. I feel that, no matter what side Warner goes to, another studio will follow within 2008. However, the studio would likely take a neutral approach rather than follow Warner in exclusivity.

 

[Raistlin]

In the same way that getting Warner to go Blu would affect Uni and Paramount. Fox/Disney were gung ho about Divx, too. Companies have to reevaluate their position after big events, and the Warner move would be the biggest to date.

While either direction is obviously a big event, worthy of reevaluation, pretending it would likely have the same outcome in either direction seems a bit dishonest to me.

Obviously its worse for HD DVD if they go Blu than it is for BD if they go red ... for a number of reasons.

 

[Ignatz Mouse]

This just sounds like more of the "both sides are equal" kind of talk that makes the blogs so annoying.

Yeah, WB changing sides would cause a ripple, but there's nothing to suggest that Fox or Disney's stated strategies would be affected by that, for the reasons stated above. Paramount, OTOH, we know just follows the money, and Uni will be hard to convert, though their upper brass made some noises about evaluating the market early in the year.

C'mon, Van, make the case specifically why Fox or Disney (or Sony) would go neutral.

 

[VanMardigan]

Obviously its worse for HD DVD if they go Blu than it is for BD if they go red ... for a number of reasons.

I agree, even though HD DVD survived for a year and a half with only one exclusive studio, and now they have two. Warner is big enough that the blow (especially for a studio that started HD DVD exclusive) would be worse for red.

 

[StoOgE]

How come every time someone posts a rumor, they also happen to be the person that "broke the last big rumor".

Just let it go. If its announced, its announced. I dont know how many 'insiders' have weighed in on both sides of this, but its getting stupid.

 

[gkryhewy]

Unintentional, but funny nonetheless. :lol

No, that was intentional, dude - it was a lead paint joke.

 

[avaya]

Steve Jobs has enormous influence within Disney as the largest shareholder and the position as the biggest tech evangelist in the media business.

He will continue to oppose Microsoft's attempts to push proprietary Windows Media and HDi solutions within the entertainment business. As long as Microsoft continues to push for their standard to be adopted by the industry, then Jobs, if he is in any position to fight it will fight it. He has widespread intra-industry support behind him.

Disney’s marketing has been FOX-like. In your face and everywhere. It’s what Disney do.

This doesn’t rule out Disney supporting HD-DVD. I mean hell could freeze over and they could do it. Don’t rule it out. As for FOX, I'd expect them to pull out of HD optical altogether if Warner goes Red.

Paramount’s defection was unbelievable. Not only to observers but to their own employees! However looking at some of the directors working for the company that they would succumb to such money was somewhat predictable: Alan Bell worked under Warren Lieberfarb (key founder of DVD). Steve Nickerson the former WHV President also worked under Lieberfarb.

 

[Ignatz Mouse]

How come every time someone posts a rumor, they also happen to be the person that "broke the last big rumor".

Has this happened before, with some other rumor?

I think I'm one of the more conservative people around here when it comes to rumors (and most eager to dismiss analysts) but it seems that this particular source is more reliable than most, if they broke the Paramount news-- for two reasons. 1) They've been right before and 2) that time was pro-Red news, so it's not likely thet they're working for one side over the other.

Yeah, anything can happen before something is announced, but I give this more creedence than I have yet, based on the source. No fire yet, but a lot more smoke.

 

[LJ11]

No, that was intentional, dude - it was a lead paint joke.

Ah, sorry for not picking up on it. Either way I got a chuckle out of it.

 

[Bebpo]

Got my US version of Jin-Roh BD today !

500 page storyboard book + 20 page color pamphlet + movie.

Basically it's identical in packaging to the Japanese DVD LE which came with the dvd (same cover as US BD) + 500 page book. Since I never got the Japanese LE, I'm really happy they included this stuff for the US BD.

The transfer should be identical to the JPN BD release.

I love that Bandai Visual uses the Japanese packaging for their US releases. I just wish they'd announce more US dates. Would rather buy US sets for $20 cheaper. Don't want to pay Japan prices for Char's Counterattack, Escaflowne movie, and Cowboy Bebop movie. >_<

 

[DarkJediKnight]

Warner going Blu-ray will almost certainly end the war theoretically. Warner has been the most active of all the studios and NO ONE can argue that it was Warner who ALLOWED HD DVD to live in Q1 and Q2 of this year when Universal was pretty much MIA.

Thus, Warner going Team Blu exclusive will be far more devastating to team Red than Paramount dropping Blu. Paramount is pretty much as active as Lionsgate really aside from the last 2 months.

If Warner goes Blu, you can bet every dollar in your bank that Paramount will release the new Indiana Jones on both formats next year and ease their transition until HD DVD folds. Because the Indiana Jones movie is not exclusive to HD DVD at all since it's Spielberg directed.

Warner going Red will be interesting. No idea what will happen but it will be a giant momentum shifter that could cause Blu exclusive studios to go neutral and let the hardware manufacturers fight it out.

And not to mention coming along for the ride will be The Dark Knight Exclusivity. If Batman Begins on HD DVD is an indicator, Dark Knight will smash all HD records.

 

[gkryhewy]

I think I'm one of the more conservative people around here when it comes to rumors (and most eager to dismiss analysts) but it seems that this particular source is more reliable than most, if they broke the Paramount news-- for two reasons. 1) They've been right before and 2) that time was pro-Red news, so it's not likely thet they're working for one side over the other.

Previously they were breaking news, whereas this time, from the tone of the alleyinsider.com link, they appear to be predicting/projecting a Warner-->BRD decision in mid 2008. I think that's quite different, but it's unfortunate that their "reg. required" link appears to be misdirected to the Stringer quote.

 

[OokieSpookie]

Got my US version of Jin-Roh BD today !

http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v297/bebpo/jinroh003.jpg
http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v297/bebpo/jinroh011.jpg
http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v297/bebpo/jinroh005.jpg

500 page storyboard book + 20 page color pamphlet + movie.

Basically it's identical in packaging to the Japanese DVD LE which came with the dvd (same cover as US BD) + 500 page book. Since I never got the Japanese LE, I'm really happy they included this stuff for the US BD.

The transfer should be identical to the JPN BD release.

I love that Bandai Visual uses the Japanese packaging for their US releases. I just wish they'd announce more US dates. Would rather buy US sets for $20 cheaper. Don't want to pay Japan prices for Char's Counterattack, Escaflowne movie, and Cowboy Bebop movie. >_<

Where did you end up picking it up from?

 

[Bebpo]

Where did you end up picking it up from?

Rightstuf.com. I don't think they are selling it at retail stores because BV has no distributor in the US atm.

Also here are some reviews of the transfer:
http://www.animeondvd.com/reviews2/disc_reviews/6854.php
http://www.animeondvd.com/reviews2/disc_reviews/6452.php

 

[VanMardigan]

Previously they were breaking news, whereas this time, from the tone of the alleyinsider.com link, they appear to be predicting/projecting a Warner-->BRD decision in mid 2008. I think that's quite different, but it's unfortunate that their "reg. required" link appears to be misdirected to the Stringer quote.

From cochiseguy at highdef digest:

Our forecast (in late 2006, click here) that 2007 would be the first year consumer spending on DVDs declines appears to be coming true. While Hollywood had hoped the strength of the summer 2007 box office would allow for a modest increase, we believe the failure of several key 4Q DVD titles (such as Spiderman 3 and Shrek 3 among others) will result in a modest decline in 2007 consumer spending on DVDs. The standard definition DVD business has matured (with DVD players now in over 90 mm homes), with catalog sales now falling rapidly; in addition, TV DVD sales have reached a plateau.

With this as a backdrop, Hollywood studios need next-gen (hi-def) DVD to take-off more than ever before, particularly studios that have relied heavily on catalog DVD sales. While the format war between HD DVD and Blu-ray has driven hardware prices down rapidly (sub $300 for Blu-ray and sub $200 for HD DVD), consumers are simply confused by the split in title availability by studio (check out this Circuit City circular from this weekend).

Who backs which format:

* Blu-ray: Disney, Fox, Lionsgate, MGM, and Sony {New Line/Warner Bros}
* HD DVD: Dreamworks, Paramount, Universal {New Line/Warner Bros}

Time Warner’s New Line and Warner Bros. are the only studios still releasing in both next-gen DVD formats. The downturn in catalog DVD sales is having a particularly negative impact on Warner Bros., given its heavy reliance on catalog DVD sales. The weakness in catalog DVD sales combined with the cost of authoring DVDs in both formats is essentially forcing Warner to give up on HD DVD to speed the uptake of next-gen DVD (Blu-ray) in 2008. In addition, we suspect, Warner’s decision to embrace Video-on-Demand, day and date with DVD (to help its sister company Time Warner Cable) is putting increased pressure on new release DVD sales. Time Warner’s choices (we suspect the later option will be selected soon):

* If Warner Bros. and New Line continue to release in both next-gen formats or choose HD DVD exclusively, the format war is unlikely to end in 2008 (when Paramount and Dreamworks would have the opportunity to swing back to the Blu-ray camp).

* If Warner Bros. and New Line shift exclusively to Blu-ray in early 2008, we expect the format war to end rapidly as Universal and Paramount/Dreamworks will not have enough titles to sustain HD DVD for much longer.

Even with a single next-gen format by mid-2008 (we believe a Warner Blu-ray shift will kill off HD DVD within 6-9 months), we still believe consumer spending on DVD sales will be down about 3% in 2008 compared to 1% in 2007 (e-mail us if you want a copy of our DVD spending model). A single next-gen format should drive increased consumer interest in next-gen DVD and help the DVD business maintain floor space at mass merchant retailers (such as Wal-Mart, Target, etc…) in 2008/2009.

Creative success will become increasingly important in 2008, as the “halo effect” from the growth of the DVD industry had driven profitability across all movie studios. With the DVD “halo” gone and digital distribution still in its infancy, studios need to make profitable movies; catalog will no longer save them (particularly, as we suspect most consumers will not be re-buying their existing catalog in next-gen DVD, soon-to-be-known, simply as Blu-ray).

 

[VanMardigan]

It certainly doesn't look like he's certain. Matter of fact, I wouldn't be surprised if ignatz had told me he wrote that article. It seem like EXACTLY what's been discussed here tons of times. The same scenarios, everything. Unless he's being coy, it seems more like speculation than an analyst who has inside info.

 

[gkryhewy]

From cochiseguy at highdef digest:

So.... it's just a projection, but based on some pretty sound logic? Good find, by the way.

 

[justjohn]

can someone tell me, if they decide to release indiana jones trilogy, will it be on blu-ray as well. i'm confused by this whole paramount spielberg business.

 

[Elios83]

Well it's exactly what we're saying here, Warner going Blu at CES 2008 would mean format war over, everyone can think about making faster the transition from DVD to HD, Toshiba can make a good deal with Sony to produce BR players. Warner going HD-DVD or staying neutral for much longer would mean a total stale situation still open to new scenarios, with the most likely being that the formats will co-exist and neither of them will have the success of DVD (which is probably what the every major doesn't want).

 

[Ignatz Mouse]

If this is prediction, and not early reporting of rumor, then I agree (and it seems that it is).

And yes, I agree with the article completely, though I did not write it! :lol

It is pretty much what I've been saying, and I think without blinders on, most people with the facts would agree on those predictions. Only a backroom deal with WB is likely to keep HD-DVD going, IMHO. And yes, such a deal is possible.

 

[VanMardigan]

Only a backroom deal with WB is likely to keep HD-DVD going, IMHO. And yes, such a deal is possible.

So you don't think the BDA would provide incentives for WB to go Blu exclusive? Would Warner Bros. be stupid enough to NOT take cash for going exclusive to either camp? After Paramount/Dreamworks, things changed, and we know both sides have been in talks with WB. Whichever way WB swings, they're getting a backroom deal on top of whatever rationalization they make for picking a side.

 

[Ignatz Mouse]

can someone tell me, if they decide to release indiana jones trilogy, will it be on blu-ray as well. i'm confused by this whole paramount spielberg business.

We don't know anything concrete, but unanmed Paramount insiders have said that the HD-DVD exclusivity does not apply to Spielberg titles and that there's some stipulation that they'd have to be released on Blu-ray at a minimum. Spielberg sources have been reported as being pro-Blu so that fits, but none of it is direct communication.

Your confusion is understood. Nobody really knows, and for all we do know the Paramount deal might just mean that the Spielberg movies can't be released in HD at all.

 

[Ignatz Mouse]

So you don't think the BDA would provide incentives for WB to go Blu exclusive? Would Warner Bros. be stupid enough to NOT take cash for going exclusive to either camp? After Paramount/Dreamworks, things changed, and we know both sides have been in talks with WB. Whichever way WB swings, they're getting a backroom deal on top of whatever rationalization they make for picking a side.

???

I don't get where your first statement comes from at all. Of course the BDA would provide incentives. What I mean is that the back-room deal would be the only reason I can see for WB to go Red. I don't buy Paramount's rationalization and with sub-$300 BD players just coming out I don't think WB's standalone murmurings will carry much weight with the board, either. Aside from the aforementioned backroom deals, the only attractive exclusivity option for WB is Blu.

Again, this isn't a "both sides are equal" situation. Blu has a market advantage that Red would have to compensate for. Money will change hands either way.

 

[mollipen]

So you don't think the BDA would provide incentives for WB to go Blu exclusive? Would Warner Bros. be stupid enough to NOT take cash for going exclusive to either camp? After Paramount/Dreamworks, things changed, and we know both sides have been in talks with WB. Whichever way WB swings, they're getting a backroom deal on top of whatever rationalization they make for picking a side.

I think the point is, if Warner was to make a decision based on current and future sales, and not a hat full of money, a lot of (most?) people would argue that the only logical decision for Warner to make would be Blu-ray. If Warner went blue, it could be because of a payoff, or because they think it's the better choice financially and strategically. If Warner went red, it would most likely only be due to a payoff.

 

[VanMardigan]

Whichever way Warner goes, they're getting a hat full of money. The rest of their rationalization is for us to debate, nothing more. I'm sure they'll make it sound real nice and all, like Paramount tried to do. But ultimately, it's about the money, since I"m sure that either side could take whatever concerns they have about publishing on their format go away.

 

[Ignatz Mouse]

I think the point is, if Warner was to make a decision based on current and future sales, and not a hat full of money, a lot of (most?) people would argue that the only logical decision for Warner to make would be Blu-ray. If Warner went blue, it could be because of a payoff, or because they think it's the better choice financially and strategically. If Warner went red, it would most likely only be due to a payoff.

I'm sure WB will get some sort of deal, but yes, that's pretty much what I was saying. A backroom deal is the *only* reason WB would go Red, while to go Blu, there's a market advantage as well.

 

[HokieJoe]

Steve Jobs has enormous influence within Disney as the largest shareholder and the position as the biggest tech evangelist in the media business.

He will continue to oppose Microsoft's attempts to push proprietary Windows Media and HDi solutions within the entertainment business. As long as Microsoft continues to push for their standard to be adopted by the industry, then Jobs, if he is in any position to fight it will fight it. He has widespread intra-industry support behind him.

Disney’s marketing has been FOX-like. In your face and everywhere. It’s what Disney do.

This doesn’t rule out Disney supporting HD-DVD. I mean hell could freeze over and they could do it. Don’t rule it out. As for FOX, I'd expect them to pull out of HD optical altogether if Warner goes Red.

Paramount’s defection was unbelievable. Not only to observers but to their own employees! However looking at some of the directors working for the company that they would succumb to such money was somewhat predictable: Alan Bell worked under Warren Lieberfarb (key founder of DVD). Steve Nickerson the former WHV President also worked under Lieberfarb.

Jobs will push what stands to benefit Apple first. That could mean opposing MS; or it could mean Apple supports a path which brings us to digital downloads faster. I don't think it's a far stretch to imagine Apple wanting exactly what MS wants- digital downloads. The question is, in whose proprietary format will these downloadable movies reside: Apple, MS, or some other player?

 

[djkimothy]

Got my US version of Jin-Roh BD today !

http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v297/bebpo/jinroh003.jpg[IMG]
[IMG]http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v297/bebpo/jinroh011.jpg[IMG]
[IMG]http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v297/bebpo/jinroh005.jpg[IMG]

500 page storyboard book + 20 page color pamphlet + movie.

Basically it's identical in packaging to the Japanese DVD LE which came with the dvd (same cover as US BD) + 500 page book. Since I never got the Japanese LE, I'm really happy they included this stuff for the US BD.

The transfer should be identical to the JPN BD release.

I love that Bandai Visual uses the Japanese packaging for their US releases. I just wish they'd announce more US dates. Would rather buy US sets for $20 cheaper. Don't want to pay Japan prices for Char's Counterattack, Escaflowne movie, and Cowboy Bebop movie. >_<[/QUOTE]

Sweet package, I wish they did this stuff with the more mainstream stuff.

 

[avaya]

Jobs will push what stands to benefit Apple first. That could mean opposing MS; or it could mean Apple supports a path which brings us to digital downloads faster. I don't think it's a far stretch to imagine Apple wanting exactly what MS wants- digital downloads. The question is, in whose proprietary format will these downloadable movies reside: Apple, MS, or some other player?

Microsoft getting a foothold situation with HDi and WMV is certainly not something that Apple wants at all.

 

[polyh3dron]

The New York Times is now reporting that Warner might go Blu. The momentum is growing.

 

[HokieJoe]

Microsoft getting a foothold situation with HDi and WMV is certainly not something that Apple wants at all.

Then again, as I stated before, Apple most likely does want digital downloads. Nothing is very clear cut here without knowing all of the inside angles.

 

[OokieSpookie]

The New York Times is now reporting that Warner might go Blu. The momentum is growing.

Unfortunately that is just a rehash of the Business Week rumor.

 

[polyh3dron]

Unfortunately that is just a rehash of the Business Week rumor.

Yeah, these BusinessWeek and New York Times guys can't be trusted.