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Hi-Def Media Lovefest: The war is over and we can all go home.
- Thread starter HyperionX
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Ignatz Mouse
Banned
Saying that CES is too early souncs like cognitive dissonance on the part of people who really, really want WB to go Blu but think the announcement about the conference means that they won't.
CES would be the *perfect* time to make such an announcement. It's right after Q4 results are in, and it's when the studios announce their plans for 3-6 months forward. Given the rumblings they were making a couple of months ago, the timing couldn't be more right.
I don't read that much into their conference speaking announcement at all, but to suddenly say that CES isn't the right time is just self-delusional wishful thinking.
CES would be the *perfect* time to make such an announcement. It's right after Q4 results are in, and it's when the studios announce their plans for 3-6 months forward. Given the rumblings they were making a couple of months ago, the timing couldn't be more right.
I don't read that much into their conference speaking announcement at all, but to suddenly say that CES isn't the right time is just self-delusional wishful thinking.
VanMardigan
has calmed down a bit.
Onix said:lolz no.
In other words, you were off by a hell of a lot more than 3 points
lulz, you suck at the interwebs.
VanMardigan said:
The war will never end if left only to Toshiba and Sony. Left up to them and the consumers the fight will keep puttering along month after month as it has been. Aside from some minor improvments (BD Profile 2.0, Triple Layer HD DVDs), the cards have been placed on the table and the formats are what they are. It will be up to the movie studios and/or retailers to end this.
VanMardigan
has calmed down a bit.
Now, why WOULDN'T Warner take a payout, regardless of who or why they choose? Does it make sense for them to leave money on the table if they are indeed going to pick a side? I ask because it seems obvious to me that either side would subsidize Warner's costs to keep producing movies on their side if all else fails. So if Warner's not taking any payments, and it wouldn't cost them anything extra to be format neutral, then why pick a side?
Ignatz Mouse
Banned
Anecdotal evidence time:
One of my local mom-and-pop video stores does both formats. Another one now has a sign saying they have Blu-Ray.
That's the first independent little store I've seen pick a side.
I don;t hink this mean anything, but was interesting to me (and conveneient).
One of my local mom-and-pop video stores does both formats. Another one now has a sign saying they have Blu-Ray.
That's the first independent little store I've seen pick a side.
I don;t hink this mean anything, but was interesting to me (and conveneient).
Ignatz Mouse
Banned
He didn't say they wouldn't take a payout, he sadi they wouldn't decide on that basis.
Ignatz Mouse
Banned
orio7 said:
Stretch of the Decade.
VanMardigan
has calmed down a bit.
Oni Jazar said:
But the retailers seem content to be dual format and the studios have all picked a side except Warner. What do we do now? More specifically, why should Warner, who seems to have splendid relationships with both sides, be the one to decide now? I mean, looking at it from Warner's POV, it seems unfair to have to pick a side. They seem reticent about playing kingmaker, and I don't blame them.
orio7 said:
Stop.
I'm format neutral, but I prefer HD-DVD, but I'm not emotionally invested at all. It's obvious that you are, and you're letting it cloud your thinking to the point of silliness. Saying that you're grasping at straws is an understatement and it's just riling people up.
We'll know Warner's intentions when they announce it...until then, let's just be happy that their films are available to supporters of either format.
VanMardigan said:
I think eventually WB will pick a side. I think the likely scenario is they pick a side after dual format players become the norm and the format war is a stalemate. At that point, who they pick wont matter to the consumer so much. I really just dont see a 60/40 (more or less) lifetime split being enough for Toshiba to cede anything. 40% of the revenue DVD makes for them now is better than 0%. Which means the moneyhats will keep rolling.
VanMardigan said:
They may be content for now but I don't think the retailers are that happy to sustain a dual market. And to answer your question there is nothing that we can do now. Like I said, either the studios agree to back one format, or the retialers actively stop stocking a format (unlikely at this point), or the format war will continue it's pathetic little fea dance on the ass of the DVD dog.
I agree that it's a big burden for Warner to be the kingmaker. Funny thing is Universal was in this exact same position last year. They had the ability to change the HDM market with a single word of neutraility. Now the focus happens to be on Warner.
StoOgE said:
Even 20% is better than nothing...
I really gotta think that this war has more life left in it than any of us think it does. We're all hoping for 2008 to crown a champion, but if the moneyhatting continues, this thing could extend on much longer. If Toshiba is going to lose, why wouldn't they try to drag this out to keep DVD as the dominant format for as long as possible? Even if they get pounded in the hi-def war, it's in their best interest to keep DVD alive and healthy for quite some time.
But they haven't actually remained totally above the frey, they've certainly dipped down into it and played favorite with HDDVD. If they were completely agnostic, then every movie they've made available for HDDVD would also be available for BD.VanMardigan said:
Oni Jazar said:
Not as long as Toshiba can keep afloat by the DVD money that they roll in. Toshiba is a very healthy company and they can prolong this for quite some time. Studios will tire of the war before either one of the Blu or Red camps will, but are studios actually losing money on the hi-def market, or are the profits just very slim? I don't have any knowledge on this.
VanMardigan
has calmed down a bit.
They're all losing money, pretty much. Sony and Toshiba subsidize a ton of stuff, like disc replication costs and (in the case of Paramount) advertising, but it's still a money losing venture until the volume of sales rises. Which, according to Dave Vaughn, they are.
The problem with studios not choosing sides is that Sony IS a side, in the sense that their movie studio was going to be exclusive from the start. In that environment, Toshiba knew they had to get exclusive studios, so they did a deal with Universal. Paramount and Warner were also initially HD DVD exclusive, but later went neutral (likely because of the inclusion of Blu Ray in Ps3).
The problem with studios not choosing sides is that Sony IS a side, in the sense that their movie studio was going to be exclusive from the start. In that environment, Toshiba knew they had to get exclusive studios, so they did a deal with Universal. Paramount and Warner were also initially HD DVD exclusive, but later went neutral (likely because of the inclusion of Blu Ray in Ps3).
Christoff Yurievich
Member
they've always had problems with releases, Ocean's Giftset for one and some of the Kubrick's for another. They're the only company so far that has had issues making release dates and it's only for Blu-Ray releases. OMG the comspiracies!orio7 said:
Christoff Yurievich
Member
it wasn't supposed to be a serious post, sorry. :/
KZObsessed
Member
Just some info for people who think a Warner decision will definitely take place at CES or that if no decision takes place at CES then Warner will stay neutral:
Penton-Man (reliable Blu-Ray insider) has said two things recently hinting at a timeframe of the decision which he hasn't done before:
1. A meeting between Warner and BDA takes place the day before CES, so unless everything is signed sealed and delivered then or very soon after, there's a possibility it wont be announced at CES.
2. He also mentioned that some companies like to look at "Q5" sales which is basically what they call January sales. So it's also possible they'll wait til January's over until they announce BD exclusivity... if they announce it at all.
Penton-Man (reliable Blu-Ray insider) has said two things recently hinting at a timeframe of the decision which he hasn't done before:
1. A meeting between Warner and BDA takes place the day before CES, so unless everything is signed sealed and delivered then or very soon after, there's a possibility it wont be announced at CES.
2. He also mentioned that some companies like to look at "Q5" sales which is basically what they call January sales. So it's also possible they'll wait til January's over until they announce BD exclusivity... if they announce it at all.
Jeff-DSA said:
but a lot depends on what the projections are if they choose a side
eg if sales are projected to grow at 10% a year for dual format, but 20% a year if there is only one format, then that might make it worthwhile choosing sides and losing a little revenue in the short term. (all numbers made up for illustration only BTW)
also, there are probably some kinds of projections as to how many of each side would move over to the other side, should it go single format. eg if 50% of current HDDVD owners would buy a bluray player within 12 months, then that helps offset the potential lost revenue too.
its not a 'lost' 40% by any means.
StoOgE said:
after dual format players become the norm? Thats a stretch isn't it? There are how many dual format players out there right now? This is one of those arguments that I honestly don't understand. Unless people are using it so they don't lose playability in discs they have. simple facts would suggest that there is little interest in dual format players right now, and almost no intent by CE manufactuers to produce them. So do people put this argument forward purely because its the only solution they can see?
KZObsessed
Member
OokieSpookie said:
Those are awesome numbers, at a week where HD-DVD had one of their biggest exclusives.
Blu-Ray is easily gonna take every week in 2007 and probably every week in Jan 08 too.
Petrarca would have been proud. R.I.P old friend
Ignatz Mouse
Banned
Cheap dual-format players are the wish of the consumer-- unfortunately, they don't make much sense to the other parts of the market. If dual-format players were the same cost (or only slightly more) than single-format players, they would rule and the format war would be irrelevant (which is what we all want, right?). But they aren't.
Ignatz Mouse
Banned
Kastro said:
No, it's a warning message-- if one of these formats doesn't take hold and become mainstream, the world will be overrun with vampires.
VanMardigan
has calmed down a bit.
kaching said:
No, you're confused. You were asking why the studios didn't just remain neutral, and I was explaining that there was no way that could've happened because Sony's movie division wouldn't have been neutral. That means that Blu Ray would have all the movie studios (including the neutrals). Because of this, Toshiba had to secure movie studios as well in terms of exclusivity. The closest thing we could've gotten would've been Uni and Sony movies exclusive, and all other studios neutral.
mrklaw said:
no, my point was this war wont end, because Toshiba will continue to write checks for the forseable future to keep stuidos exclusive. Toshiba wont throw in the towel because they are only 40% of the market (the same could be said for Sony if roles were reversed). and until one of these formats becomes so profitable for studios that moneyhats cant make up the difference, Toshiba will be able to buy studios
Yes, because the majority of this thread pining away for one format or the other to win over the past year has truly proven to be the more realistic wish of the consumer. The only thing that happens to be driving the plausability of that wish as any more realistic at the moment is a rumor of WB picking a side. But if that doesn't turn out to be true or doesn't turn out to be a complete defection on WB's part (like they only agree to timed exclusives for BD or simply announce that they're finally filling in the gaps in the BD support to date), then we can look forward to another year of Blu Pacmans still trying to swallow a red slice that's just a little too big for them.
I simply think there's a good chance that the balance of 2008 will continue to be a stalemate, which will give dual format player mfgrs plenty of time to refine their processes in order to produce $299 dual format players by the next holiday season. This isn't wishful thinking, it's unfortunately more about tired familiarity with the obstinate nature of these corporations and their tendency to be unable to resolve their differences until outside forces resolve those differences for them.
I simply think there's a good chance that the balance of 2008 will continue to be a stalemate, which will give dual format player mfgrs plenty of time to refine their processes in order to produce $299 dual format players by the next holiday season. This isn't wishful thinking, it's unfortunately more about tired familiarity with the obstinate nature of these corporations and their tendency to be unable to resolve their differences until outside forces resolve those differences for them.
kaching said:
Ironic considering Microsoft's original claim for supporting HD-DVD was supposedly about respecting consumers.
I think WB is going to announce in Q1 2008, but I'm not expecting to hear it at CES. DVD sales are declining. Every studio has a vested interest in ending the format war. Thanks to the Blu Shutout of 2007, buying a victory is no longer plausible.
kaching said:
I concur with this. We arent getting one format, unless BRD is consistenlty killing HDDVD, and Im not talking 70/30. As long as Toshiba has the prospect for long term profitablity, they will continue to fight BRD. and unless one of these formats actually starts making studios money (and alot of it), studios who are trying to hit short term earnings forcasts for investors will take the payday.
The best chance for consumers to end the war at this point is cheap dual format players becoming the norm, effectively ending the format war. At that point, it wont matter what format a movie comes out on to anyone. It all goes in the same machine, just like DVDs do now. I would also assume the colored boxes would go away at that point.
Maybe it is myopic on the studios part, but clearly they are willing to do it now.
No, I was actually asking two things. The first thing I asked was, "Why even get involved?". Which is why I said that if only the studios beholden to Sony because they're owned by them were the only ones to produce content for BD, then the format would have gone nowhere. The point I'm driving at is that all the studios who weren't owned by CE Mfgr, i.e. the rest of them, could have easily refused to release content to either format in the first place and forced a format consolidation that way. But they didn't. They then proceeded to choose sides, basically right down the middle. In light of that, despite all the points made about a format war not being to the benefit of any of the industry players, the customers and so forth, it still happened and still perseveres. WB siding one way or the other is the great white hope, but there's not much else there to suggest an end to the standoff is coming anytime soon.VanMardigan said:
OokieSpookie
Banned
theBishop said:
Correct.
January will be very important, as will maybe february depending on how nice they want to be.
CES will not be the place and I like to think that most have known this, there is still the "christmas tree" effect where it will be seen whether there is any effect by players under the tree as it were.
Either way all things still point to a blu shift and until I am told differently I will go by that.
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