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[Snah]

I don't see any Blu-Ray exclusive studios going neutral, especially with how well Blu-Ray is selling relative to its competition even at a much higher entrance cost.

 

[Walshicus]

It should be like the others in this thread.... post your sources, and they better not be junk, or get the banhammer.

20th Century going neutral has a slim to none chance of happening. If the junk rumor mill said Disney going neutral, it would have more credibility. 20th Century Fox has supported BRD all along because of its copy protection scheme and have publically stated this on many occasions. They don't feel that HD-DVD is secure enough and since its been cracked already, I guess they were right.

Yeah but so has the BD-ROM protection too, right?

I don't see any Blu-Ray exclusive studios going neutral, especially with how well Blu-Ray is selling relative to its competition even at a much higher entrance cost.

Of course you wouldn't. You're a BD fanboy as much as I'm a 360 fanboy.

Fact is neither format is outselling the other by a big enough margin to really make a difference. I'm sure there are many studios who'd rather make a quick buck from the HD-DVD audience than not. It's meant to be near-enough pennies to set up a HD production line isn't it?

 

[Opus Angelorum]

Yeah but so has the BD-ROM protection too, right?



Of course you wouldn't. You're a BD fanboy as much as I'm a 360 fanboy.

Fact is neither format is outselling the other by a big enough margin to really make a difference. I'm sure there are many studios rather make a quick buck from the HD-DVD audience than not.

Correct, it was much easier to crack the HD-DVD protection but AACS has been cracked on Blu-Ray as well.

 

[Kolgar]

Dave Vaughn, the fellow who's been "predicting" the Nielsen numbers these past several weeks, says he expects Warner to announce a decision before CES. As in, next week.

He says it's simply his "gut feeling," that he doesn't really know for sure. But given his other "predictions," I'm all ears.

I do hope something is announced one way or the other. I'm afraid I've cut back my HDM purchases a bit this past month simply due to the possibility of a decisive blow being dealt in January. I'm only buying exclusives these days, but I really want Planet Earth and I don't quite feel safe buying it for either format right now.

Maybe next week!

 

[oatmeal]

Are there any good Blu Ray burners out there yet?

I wouldn't mind dabbling a little in high definition disk production.

 

[avaya]

Any studio that currently supports either format exclusively (Sony Pictures Entertainment excluded) are simply loosing money on every release.

Due to a war. What your impying is that they go neutral so they can prolong a war that will destory both formats ever becoming sustainable real income streams to anyone other than the patent holders. They all need to pick one side, right now.

BTW MGM goes with Fox since SPE sold them the distribution rights to a lot of films except a couple of the Bond's. However Sony has a place on the MGM board because it was part of the Comcast/private-equity lead consortium which acquired the studio.

I would like to get a source on the Fox rumour as well. The Warner rumour talk started after a Lionsgate VP mentioned it publicly and trusted insiders confirmed that it was doing the rounds.

 

[Walshicus]

Are there any good Blu Ray burners out there yet?

I wouldn't mind dabbling a little in high definition disk production.

Just you and the missus eh? Like cameras does she? Is she a go-er, sir? Nudge nudge? Wink wink? Say-a no-a more-a.

 

[Opus Angelorum]

Dave Vaughn, the fellow who's been "predicting" the Nielsen numbers these past several weeks, says he expects Warner to announce a decision before CES. As in, next week.

Interesting, but then CES starts on the 7th so I don't see the significance.

 

[Snah]

Yeah but so has the BD-ROM protection too, right?



Of course you wouldn't. You're a BD fanboy as much as I'm a 360 fanboy.

Fact is neither format is outselling the other by a big enough margin to really make a difference. I'm sure there are many studios who'd rather make a quick buck from the HD-DVD audience than not. It's meant to be near-enough pennies to set up a HD production line isn't it?

And Fox, Disney, and Sony are bigger Blu-Ray fanboys than I am, so there goes your argument.

There's not enough bucks to be had at this stage for Blu-Ray exclusive studios to go neutral. And I'm sure that they also realize, just like many others, that supporting a stalemate will only prevent HD adoption in the long term, which is surely something they do not want. It'll cost them far more many $$$ long-term than any short-term gains that are to be had from going neutral.

 

[nubbe]

BD+ has not been cracked... more like by passed.
I don't see 20th going neutral given their aggressive tone about Microsoft's dealing with HDDVD.
It would also prolong the format dealings indefinitely which none of the big studios would like over the long term.

 

[Opus Angelorum]

Due to a war. What your impying is that they go neutral so they can prolong a war that will destory both formats ever becoming sustainable real income streams to anyone other than the patent holders. They all need to pick one side, right now.

BTW MGM goes with Fox since SPE sold them the distribution rights to a lot of films except a couple of the Bond's. However Sony has a place on the MGM board because it was part of the Comcast/private-equity lead consortium which acquired the studio.

I would like to get a source on the Fox rumour as well. The Warner rumour talk started after a Lionsgate VP mentioned it publicly and trusted insiders confirmed that it was doing the rounds.

They need to prolong the war though, consumers have yet to even embrace HD in general, so deciding which format to go along with is a very hard thing to do at this time.

Good point about MGM/Fox.

I'm looking for the articles I was reading concerning Fox.

There's not enough bucks to be had at this stage for Blu-Ray exclusive studios to go neutral.

Do you seriously think releasing a movie on both formats would decrease sales?

 

[StoOgE]

so, we have 1 uni is lying to keep wb neutral (so snah, was uni just praying wb didnt have their own data in your scenario?)

we have 1 completely bananas fox and lionsgate go neutral...

and a wb goes exclusive before ces...

this thread is worse than normal.

 

[Opus Angelorum]

this thread is worse than normal.

Awesome contribution to the discussion, come again.

 

[Snah]

They need to prolong the war though, consumers have yet to even embrace HD in general, so deciding which format to go along with is a very hard thing to do at this time.

Good point about MGM/Fox.

I'm looking for the articles I was reading concerning Fox.



Do you seriously think releasing a movie on both formats would decrease sales?

If it leads to a stalemate of both sides, then yes, I think sales in the longterm sales will be stifled because of lower HD adoption rates. Again, of course there's money to be made in the short term, but it's not enough to make them sway from their position.

 

[Snah]

so, we have 1 uni is lying to keep wb neutral (so snah, was uni just praying wb didnt have their own data in your scenario?)

we have 1 completely bananas fox and lionsgate go neutral...

and a wb goes exclusive before ces...

this thread is worse than normal.

I don't know. Can you tell me why Universal is reporting fabricated sales for Warner? I'm seriously at loss for an explanation.

 

[Opus Angelorum]

Again, of course there's money to be made in the short term, but it's not enough to make them sway from their position.

It depends how you define short term, I think the war will still exist in 2010.

Can you tell me why Universal is reporting fabricated sales for Warner? I'm seriously at loss for an explanation.

Wasn't their statement though based on sales at that time?

 

[avaya]

They need to prolong the war though, consumers have yet to even embrace HD in general, so deciding which format to go along with is a very hard thing to do at this time.

Sorry mate, you’ve lost me there. If that’s your opinion that’s your opinion but it seems highly illogical to me. The HD upgrade requires quite a bit of persuasion. That’s made harder if you add an extra dimension of risk into it: The format war, an industry divided and complete uncertainty.

 

[Beer Monkey]

I don't see any Blu-Ray exclusive studios going neutral, especially with how well Blu-Ray is selling relative to its competition even at a much higher entrance cost.

It's like game publishers. Make a 360 game, port it to PS3 even though it's only going to sell 1/5 to 1/3 as many copies. Except porting games is way more expensive compared to authoring a disc in a second format, and you are going to sell way more than 1/5 to 1/3 as copies by releasing an HD-DVD in addition to your Blu-Ray. I can definitely see more studios going neutral once they realize that they were lied to about this format war ending soon.

 

[Snah]

It depends how you define short term, I think the war will still exist in 2010.



Wasn't their statement though based on sales at that time?

Sales at that time were the same figures that we already have...that is, HP on Blu-Ray was outselling the HD-DVD version by 20-30%. They're the same figures we already have, but they were just not official yet.

 

[Snah]

It's like game publishers. Make a 360 game, port it to PS3 even though it's only going to sell 1/5 to 1/3 as many copies. Except porting games is way more expensive compared to authoring a disc in a second format, and you are going to sell way more than 1/5 to 1/3 as copies by releasing an HD-DVD in addition to your Blu-Ray. I can definitely see more studios going neutral once they realize that they were lied to about this format war ending soon.

I don't see it as like game publishers at all. The gaming industry supports multiple consoles, and has for quite some time. And publishers would rather see a 1 console future, regardless of how realistic that scenario is, because it's far more ideal from a publisher's perspective.

The movie industry, consumers, and retailers will suffer because of a stalemate in the format wars, and it will lead to larger losses in the future. Blu-Ray has all the momentum on its side from sales to CE support and studios (even at a much higher entrance price), so at this stage it makes very little sense for them to go neutral.

 

[Opus Angelorum]

Sorry mate, you’ve lost me there. If that’s your opinion that’s your opinion but it seems highly illogical to me. The HD upgrade requires quite a bit of persuasion. That’s made harder if you add an extra dimension of risk into it: The format war, an industry divided and complete uncertainty.

I understand what I said seems illogical, and I agree having a divided industry is not good for the consumer.

My argument though is looking at it from the point of view of the Blu-Ray Association and HD-DVD Group.

When they both believe that their own implementation of a High Definition standard is the correct one to go with, then in regards to Studio support they would welcome it from everyone (although obliviously preferring exclusivity).

 

[DarkJediKnight]

Do you seriously think releasing a movie on both formats would decrease sales?

Yes. Had there been only one format, a movie like Transformers would have probably sold around 1/2 million copies already in highdef. Having 2 formats prevents the curious from entering it. Only the hardcore people are buying discs.

As I've said before here, I've seriously cut back my purchases. In fact, I haven't bought a dual format release in months, because I seriously don't know which to get. So instead I bought nothing or an exclusive release. I want Blade Runner. Haven't bought it. Same with Pan's Labirinth, Harry Potters. Same deal...And this is coming from a guy with both formats and a $15,000 home theater setup I'm in the top 1% of Home Theater addicts. So that should give you all the proof you need. I know for a fact what if one format wins, I'm gonna toss the other player and sell off all the movies of that format to finance new purchases of the winning format.

 

[Opus Angelorum]

I know for a fact what if one format wins, I'm gonna toss the other player and sell off all the movies of that format to finance new purchases of the winning format.

Likewise.

I think the use of 'if' though is open to interpretation, personally I think this 'war' is far from over.' HD-DVD was pretty much dead and buried back in March now, not so much.

 

[Snah]

Likewise.

I think the use of 'if' though is open to interpretation, personally I think this war is far from over.

This war, if it continues on its present pace, probably still has a few more years. You'll see Blu-Ray continue to widen the divide as blu-ray players drop and as the PS3 drops in price, but HD-DVD will continue to live, if only to be on life support. They've done pretty much everything they can in terms of pricing to get people to support the format.

But...if Warner switches....that changes everything. If Warner goes Blu-Ray exclusive next year then this is over in 2008, and wouldn't be surprised to see Universal titles on Blu-Ray in 2009 along with Paramount.

 

[Beer Monkey]

And publishers would rather see a 1 console future, regardless of how realistic that scenario is, because it's far more ideal from a publisher's perspective.

So the smart thing for publishers to do is abandon the PS3 and make it happen that there's only one high-def console?

 

[Argyle]

Correct, it was much easier to crack the HD-DVD protection but AACS has been cracked on Blu-Ray as well.

AACS is the same on both formats, so yes, AACS on Blu-ray has been cracked, in the sense that hackers have had success teasing the keys out of the memory of PC-based players.

BD+ however has not (there are rips floating around but it seemed to me that they would only play back on one specific PC BD playback software, so they are not fully unencrypted) and since BD+ can be updated in a more robust fashion, it's premature to call BD+ completely broken.

 

[Snah]

So the smart thing for publishers to do is abandon the PS3 and make it happen that there's only one high-def console?

Nope, because obviously the two scenarios aren't genuinely comparable like you're making them out to be. There will always be multiple consoles, and the industry has supported this system for quite some time. This is the result of having much different hardware specifications, controllers, and now operating systems and online infrastructure. The experience is different on each console. That's why we have the Wii, DS, PSP, PS3, etc...even though they all accomplish the same thing -- i.e., playing videogames -- they differ substantially in their approach.

Movies all are looking to accomplish the same thing, and while yes there are hardware differences, they're not nearly as substantial as some of the consoles on the marketplace. So, is it smart for publishers to abandon the PS3? No. Is it smart for publishers to abandon Blu-Ray to go neutral for HD-DVD? No.

There's still the potential for a 1-format future.

There's no potential for a 1-console future.

 

[Ignatz Mouse]

So the smart thing for publishers to do is abandon the PS3 and make it happen that there's only one high-def console?

Probably. But console analogies in this area are generally bullshit, and this one no less so.

I know, from experience, what benefits and drawbacks there are to virtual console monopoly, and movie-format monopoly. It's apples and oranges. Anyone drawing the analogy is spreading bullshit and ought to be slapped. Who started it this time? Snah? A slap for you.

 

[Snah]

Probably. But console analogies in this area are generally bullshit, and this one no less so.

I know, from experience, what benefits and drawbacks there are to virtual console monopoly, and movie-format monopoly. It's apples and oranges. Anyone drawing the analogy is spreading bullshit and ought to be slapped. Who started it this time? Snah? A slap for you.

Your reading comprehension and/or assumptions are poor.

 

[MechDX]

If Fox goes neutral I would feel bad for fans of both formats. They would announce 52 movies in the upcoming year. 10 would actually see release.:lol

 

[Ignatz Mouse]

Your reading comprehension is poor.

I take back the slap. And it's only poor because I've lost the stomach for close reading of this thread lately, so I skim.

A slap for you, beermonkey. You're ludicrous or purposefully obfuscating to bring draw such a flawed analogy.

 

[Christopher]

I still see no war going on how is 60/30 for most of the year a war? Is that not one sided?

 

[Beer Monkey]

I take back the slap. And it's only poor because I've lost the stomach for close reading of this thread lately, so I skim.

A slap for you, beermonkey. You're ludicrous or purposefully obfuscating to bring draw such a flawed analogy.

I'm just trying to clarify Snah's position. He says that the smart thing for the studios is to want a single video-platform future. I agree FYI.

He also says that the smart thing for game publishers is to want a single game platform future.

However, he feels that it is smart for movie studios to try to influence the future of the industry, and dumb for game publishers to try to influence the future of their industry.

I find it interesting. That is all.

 

[Azrael]

So this confirms that Universal was lying with their claim that the HD-DVD version of Harry Potter was outselling the Blu-Ray version. Something tells me they made that statement for a reason...why else would they blatantly lie unless they were worried about Warner switching sides?

I believe the exact words Uni used was sales of the HD DVD version were "outpacing" the Blu-ray version. From a certain perspective, that could still technically be true if the HD DVD version sold less but had a higher attach rate. It's intentionally misleading, as was claiming Spider-Man 3 only sold 30,000 copies by not counting sales of the boxed set, but it's not a lie in the strictest sense.

 

[Nicodimas]

I don't buy into the one console, operating system, Tv company, video format, etc is good for the consumer at all.

You may have to buy an extra device in regards to blu/HD, but the people are the winner. You can already get HD disks for 9 bucks a pop( 18-24 months in?) if you play it right and are patient. They are competiting on making the disks with more options and quality.

 

[Azrael]

With regards to Warner's decision.

They have stated unofficially that they want to see how both formats (hardware) sell over this holiday period, before deciding how to move forward.

Whilst this may be true, I think a more likely reason is the potentially much bigger rumour that two of the four Blu-Ray exclusive studios will announce their support for both formats by the end of January (most likely at CES).

The two being 20th Century Fox and Liongates.

I believe the source of that rumor is rdjam, who has been spreading various rumors about every Blu-ray studio but Sony defecting or going neutral for a year. He has less credibility than beatbox as far as high-def rumors go.

The Warner rumor at least has credible insiders (the Lionsgate exec and Penton Man) lending credibility to it.

 

[Azrael]

I'm just trying to clarify Snah's position. He says that the smart thing for the studios is to want a single video-platform future. I agree FYI.

He also says that the smart thing for game publishers is to want a single game platform future.

However, he feels that it is smart for movie studios to try to influence the future of the industry, and dumb for game publishers to try to influence the future of their industry.

I find it interesting. That is all.

The difference is that gamers are used to and resigned to format wars, while the average Joe who buys movies is not. Gamers by and large don't hold off on buying systems because there are other formats out there, while most movie buyers will wait until the format war is settled before they buy a player.

 

[MechDX]

I believe the source of that rumor is rdjam, who has been spreading various rumors about every Blu-ray studio but Sony defecting or going neutral for a year. He has less credibility than beatbox as far as high-def rumors go.

The Warner rumor at least has credible insiders (the Lionsgate exec and Penton Man) lending credibility to it.

New RUMOR today: Toshiba, MS, Warner Bros and Universal had a private meeting yesterday. I cant wait till next Sunday when hopefully at least some of this mess will be more clear.

Dont even get me started on penton man. Guy comes off as a pedophile to me.

 

[Azrael]

New RUMOR today: Toshiba, MS, Warner Bros and Universal had a private meeting yesterday. I cant wait till next Sunday when hopefully at least some of this mess will be more clear.

Dont even get me started on penton man. Guy comes off as a pedophile to me.

I'll admit his flirting with that chick creeps me out too and is very unprofessional IMO, but his insider status isn't in doubt.

 

[Snah]

I'll admit his flirting with that chick creeps me out too and is very unprofessional IMO, but his insider status isn't in doubt.

He was flirting with some broad on a blu-ray forum?

 

[Kleegamefan]

Likewise.

I think the use of 'if' though is open to interpretation, personally I think this 'war' is far from over.' HD-DVD was pretty much dead and buried back in March now, not so much.

Yeah...those week in week out beatdowns by Blu Ray have really injected some momentum in HD DVD!!!!

 

[lupin23rd]

Heaven forbid a guy flirt with a girl on an internet forum. I always find the guys posts interesting, more interesting than most format war posters anyways.

Maybe we should get some cute girls posting pics in here, give us something interesting to talk about than all these rumors. :lol

 

[Kleegamefan]

New RUMOR today: Toshiba, MS, Warner Bros and Universal had a private meeting yesterday.

Oh I just bet that was a real cozy get together:lol


I am sure Tosh, Uni and most of all, Microsoft are waving ludicrisD) amounts of money in front of Warner to to keep them from going Blu...


All of the HD DVD cards that were *SUPPOSED* to shift the HD war ($99 players, Matrix, Transformers, HDi, Wal-Mart support and too many others to name) have already been played and have not resulted in shifting support or marketshare away from Blu.....So I am sure this little wenie-roast will be a "last stand" towards keeping HD DVD alive.....I could even see Micosoft throwing enough.....uh.... "incentives" at Warner to make them go red exclusive!


*heh*

 

[Walshicus]

Maybe we should get some cute girls posting pics in here, give us something interesting to talk about than all these rumors. :lol

...

Yeah, Sony going red tomorrow is more likely.

 

[markom58]

Almost turned purple today but BB were out of stock of the $299 Sony BRs. I was gonna try for the 40gb PS3 but a friend disuaded me from it saying that stand alones are a lot better. Is that true?

 

[polyh3dron]

I believe the source of that rumor is rdjam, who has been spreading various rumors about every Blu-ray studio but Sony defecting or going neutral for a year. He has less credibility than beatbox as far as high-def rumors go.

This fucking rdjam aka HD NOW guy is a nutcase, making up baseless rumors and such.

He has completely fucked up High Def Digest with his spam along with a couple others.

That place is worse than AVS used to be since all the AVS trolls moved over there.

 

[VanMardigan]

Well this thread's gone to hell again. Who came back from a ban??


Oh.


And I bet Warner is having meetings with both sides. It's only natural, but I really don't see a move happening either way. Unless mega bucks are involved, and I know both Sony and Toshiba are probably reluctant to go another several hundred million in the red for an exclusivity agreement.

 

[lupin23rd]

New RUMOR today: Toshiba, MS, Warner Bros and Universal had a private meeting yesterday. I cant wait till next Sunday when hopefully at least some of this mess will be more clear.

Dont even get me started on penton man. Guy comes off as a pedophile to me.

Nice of the syndicate to invite Paramount to the table! :lol

Should we read anything into that?

Otherwise, this actually sums up why the format war needs to end. These 4 companies (and Paramount) are pretty much the only companies that actually care about the format - why don't they just drop it and end this shit now.

 

[Snah]

Almost turned purple today but BB were out of stock of the $299 Sony BRs. I was gonna try for the 40gb PS3 but a friend disuaded me from it saying that stand alones are a lot better. Is that true?

Nope. Your friend is an eeeediot.

The PS3 is currently the best, and most future proof, of ALL blu-ray players...especially now that it is profile 1.1 compliant.

 

[MechDX]

Almost turned purple today but BB were out of stock of the $299 Sony BRs. I was gonna try for the 40gb PS3 but a friend disuaded me from it saying that stand alones are a lot better. Is that true?

No. The PS3 is a far better BD player than pretty much every stand alone out now.