Hey guys, so I was reading wikipedia about the betamax VS VHS format war to see how long THIS format war could go on for.
Betamax launched in 1975 and sony didn't basically wave a white flag of failure up until 1988 when they released their first VHS player. That's 13 years. Now, in the current market prices are adoption rates are moving much faster then they did in 70's and 80's but even half of 13 years is still 6.5 years. Let's go ahead and round that up, 7years. Even if by some miracle bluray sales stagnate and HDDVD starts moving up to eclipse BD in the next 12 months giving HDDVD a share of 70% of the market - the same thing happened in beta vs vhs in 1984, that would mean 2-3 years of bluray movie exclusitivity from at the very least sony and the companies it owns.
Looking at it the other way , the way things seem to be progressing. Bluray slowly eclipsing HDDVD on a worldwide basis , well if toshiba / universal follow the same path that sony did in the past it'll be 2-3 years after a consistent 70:30 split of the market in blurays favour. So even if that happens this year that would mean 2011 is the earliest you'll see HDDVD die, just in time for the next xbox to come out the door with 51 gb HDDVD's and further prolong this. Warner will likely stay dual format for as long as they can make money on both sides of the fence, paramount will probably go back to dual format releases after that 18 month agreement runs out at the end of this year and stay dual format for as long as they are making money. Universal though, I can't see them ever supporting a sony format. They'll go digital download only before they'd release a bluray in north america.
So basically what my long ranting is saying, if you were going to go purple or even red only you may as well do it now because you'll get a few years out of it.