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Hi-Def Media Lovefest: The war is over and we can all go home.

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J

jjasper

Member
Onix said:
lol wat?
Click to expand...

Do you really think he had any control of the Blu Ray situation?

I said the same thing when all those people in the gaming forum were laughing at him for losing his job. Blu Ray was going to be in PS3 no matter what it was necessary for the success of the format. Sony HQ knew this and probably forced it upon the PS3, $599 be damned.
 
K

Kittonwy

Banned
GuessWho said:
well if hddvd is dead i'm gonna miss those red covers. I fuckn hate the blu covers, so...so nasty.
Click to expand...

I ready to dance on HD-DVD's grave, I hope it happens soon.
gladtomeetya.gif
 
A

avaya

Member
VanMardigan said:
It's my understanding that he was against it, but it was included regardless.
Click to expand...

Really? I always thought it was the complete opposite, machine was over-engineered and Blu-ray was part of that.

jjasper said:
I would be willing to bet he had no say in Blu Ray being a part of the PS3.
Click to expand...

Well this is a man who waited for HDMI 1.3 before he even considered sending the machine out for manufacture so I have my doubts on that. I think when it was clearly the leading cause in the delays I don't think the others would have let him drop it since all studio support for SEL at the time was based around PS3.
 
J

jjasper

Member
MassiveAttack said:
Until there is a definitive source that refutes this, Kutaragi had ultimate say over all the components in PS3. Why wouldn't he?
Click to expand...

Like I said before Sony knew Blu Ray being in PS3 was necessary for the format to succeed. They had invested millions in it and to not put it into their most anticipated and most likely best selling product would have been terrible for the format.

If not for PS3 Blu Ray would have died Sony knew this, and acted accordingly.
 
E

Evlar

Banned
MassiveAttack said:
Until there is a definitive source that refutes this, Kutaragi had ultimate say over all the components in PS3. Why wouldn't he?
Click to expand...
I imagine it was the Sony board saying "We should put Blu-Ray into PS3 to support the format" and Ken saying "OK". Not that Ken wouldn't have pushed in that direction anyway, he's the ultimate tech geek after all. But I don't believe for a second he was the lone architect of the Blu-Ray in PS3 strategy.
 
Forsete

Forsete

Member
MassiveAttack said:
Until there is a definitive source that refutes this, Kutaragi had ultimate say over all the components in PS3. Why wouldn't he?
Click to expand...

BDs future uncertain: LAWL, blame Ken. He put thur BD into the xXxpensive PS3. Ken killed Sony!

BD is victorious: Blah, Ken had no say.

Oh GAF.
 
V

VanMardigan

has calmed down a bit.
You know what, I did some research and it does in fact seem like Ken was definitely pushing for Blu Ray. So, I'll put it like Clemens and say I "misremembered", because I could've sworn there were folks with Kutaragi quotes stating that Blu Ray wasn't really his idea in the thread when he got fired (or demoted or whatever).

Instead, this is what I found:

Kutaragi also talked about his decision to adopt Blu-ray for the PlayStation
3 rather than wait a bit longer to see if the Blu-ray and HD-DVD factions
would come to a final conclusion on a unified disc standard. "E3 was the
last chance," Kutaragi said. "The PS3 is the console of the future, so I
wanted an extreme amount of capacity. But for that, we need cutting-edge
technology, and not technology that is currently available. My suggestion
was to come to an agreement with a physical format that is as close to [the
Blu-ray's] 0.1mm as possible. But the PS3 launches in spring 2006. If we had
continued to wait for a unified standard, we wouldn't be able to release the
PS3. We no longer have any more time. It's game over."

Kutaragi strongly stressed that he has no plans to compromise on the
Blu-ray's 0.1mm physical format, which gives it the upper hand to HD-DVD in
terms of capacity. However, he said that he could wait until spring 2006 to
see if Sony and Toshiba could come up with a unified standard that's still
based on the Blu-ray's physical format. As long as the change is only in the
disc's logical structure, the PS3 can still adapt to it with some software
updates. Despite Kutaragi's comments, it's been reported that Toshiba and
Sony are still in negotiations on a standard format.
Click to expand...

So yeah, the man should definitely be toasting right about now. Visionary status confirmed.
 
R

Raistlin

Post Count: 9999
jjasper said:
Do you really think he had any control of the Blu Ray situation?
Click to expand...

Given his then-position in the company ... I would say yes, he had some influence in it. Unless you assume he was a figure-head.
 
R

Raistlin

Post Count: 9999
jjasper said:
Like I said before Sony knew Blu Ray being in PS3 was necessary for the format to succeed. They had invested millions in it and to not put it into their most anticipated and most likely best selling product would have been terrible for the format.

If not for PS3 Blu Ray would have died Sony knew this, and acted accordingly.
Click to expand...

The PS3 being delayed because of BluRay (and costing a shit-load of money) was placed on Ken's shoulders BY Sony. That is actually a large part of why he was removed from being 'President'.

Ken wasn't just a primary pusher of using it in PS3 ... he was one of the primary overseers of BluRay in-and-of-itself. That was one of his babies.


Forsete said:
BDs future uncertain: LAWL, blame Ken. He put thur BD into the xXxpensive PS3. Ken killed Sony!

BD is victorious: Blah, Ken had no say.

Oh GAF.
Click to expand...

:lol

Exactly.
 
D

djkimothy

Member
avaya said:
Penton-Man saying Toshiba didn't know of the Wal-Mart decision, they were blindsided just like the WB announcement.
Click to expand...

Hmmm... the ownage continues. They should just end it already. I can't imagine what Toshiba's front office is like right now. Phone ringing off the hook for a comment.
 
R

Raistlin

Post Count: 9999
avaya said:
Penton-Man saying Toshiba didn't know of the Wal-Mart decision, they were blindsided just like the WB announcement.
Click to expand...

Well, if the Hollywood Reporter story was only tentative before, its basically become a self-fulfilling prophecy now.

With all the reports swirling, and now WalMart pulling the plug ... there really is no recourse at this point.
 
X

Xater

Member
Seems like no one wants to talk with Toshiba at this point. It's just too awkward I guess...

"Yeah you know we kinda don't want to support you any longer..."

"Bu-bu-but we are the ultimate consumer choice!"

"But you kinda don't sell..."

Uni and Paramount should hurry up so I can get my HD fix from them.
 
M

MassiveAttack

Banned
Onix said:
Well, if the Hollywood Reporter story was only tentative before, its basically become a self-fulfilling prophecy now.

With all the reports swirling, and now WalMart pulling the plug ... there really is no recourse at this point.
Click to expand...

Wal-Mart just wrote Toshiba's concession speech. It's all but a press release at this point... and probably a point or two uptick in Sony's share price.
 
R

Raistlin

Post Count: 9999
BTW - For the people complaining the AVS has thrown in their support of one over the other ...

btw even AVS's Mark Rubin called it a day.


"time to recognize the obvious and move on...

We all have had enough of this format war: it is hurting AVS and HDM: we (AVS) should get back to being a technical forum"

"So yes, from my standpoint it is over: we should work toward getting AVS back to a gentler, kinder place where folks come for technical advise"


Do you think it might be helpful to AVS to recommend Blu Ray as their choice for HDM much in the same way Best Buy are doing?

Mark Rubin: "Yes."

Talking about domino effect...
Click to expand...


:)


"The look and sound of obsolescence"
 
K

kaching

"GAF's biggest wanker"
VanMardigan said:
You know what, I did some research and it does in fact seem like Ken was definitely pushing for Blu Ray. So, I'll put it like Clemens and say I "misremembered", because I could've sworn there were folks with Kutaragi quotes stating that Blu Ray wasn't really his idea in the thread when he got fired (or demoted or whatever).

Instead, this is what I found:



So yeah, the man should definitely be toasting right about now. Visionary status confirmed.
Click to expand...
There's a number of early comments from Ken about the PS3 that made it clear he was pushing for something with a lot of Hi-Def muscle. Obviously some of that didn't make it past the drawing board, but Blu-Ray was always a good fit based on his stated direction for the PS3. The quote you found certainly confirms that rather definitively.
 
K

Kolgar

Member
avaya said:
Penton-Man saying Toshiba didn't know of the Wal-Mart decision, they were blindsided just like the WB announcement.
Click to expand...

How can anybody at Toshiba be 'blindsided' by anything right now?

Since January 4, for that matter?
 
K

Kolgar

Member
I don't want to judge, but I think there's a difference between pumping your fist over a victory for your preferred format and HDM and general... and dancing on the loser's grave.

This has been all but over since January 4 and if the next phase of this thread is going to be simply grave dancing, I guess I'll call it quits here.

Been fun, guys. See you in the HDM (or should it be called "Blu-ray"?) thread!

Kolgar out.
 
V

VanMardigan

has calmed down a bit.
kaching said:
For the early recorders/players that went to market in Japan, but not for initial format R&D.
Click to expand...

I think this:

Kutaragi strongly stressed that he has no plans to compromise on the
Blu-ray's 0.1mm physical format
Click to expand...

kind of speaks to his role with Blu Ray, and it seems quite involved.

Been fun, guys. See you in the HDM (or should it be called "Blu-ray"?) thread!
Click to expand...

I hope to see you posting there. I think I'll hang around here until the official Toshiba announcement, and then never post here again. Every piece of news after that, including Tosh's transition to Blu Ray plans, should be posted in the other thread as well.
 
S

sonycowboy

Member
jmdajr said:
PS3 SAVED BLU-RAY

ITS A FACT!
Click to expand...

It's amazing it turned out that way. I think the general concensus was the Blu-Ray would help push the PS3 early on and that the PS3 would help push when the installed base ramped up.

It turned out that the formar war was so contencious and the costs so high, that it weighed as an albatross on the PS3, and kept the overall market down due to confusion. With so few players out there, the small amount of PS3's looked like the saviour for the Blu-Ray movie sales in the 2nd half of 07.

In the end though, Blu-Ray is going to pay massive dividends for Sony and now just maybe Blu-Ray can help push the PS3 the way it was supposed to be.
 
M

michaeld

Banned
Gaf's fav analyst Rob Enderle from last April
http://news.digitaltrends.com/talkback184.html
Wal-Mart Names HD DVD the Winner
There is one retailer that has the power to call the winner of the protracted Blu-Ray vs. HD DVD fight and that vendor is Wal-Mart. Over the weekend they apparently leaked plans to bring in a massive number of low cost (possibly sub $200) HD DVD players for Christmas.

The manufacturing side of this has apparently been in the works for a few years but this is the first time we have had projected prices for the result.

Why Wal-Mart, Why Now?

Wal-Mart uses DVDs to build store traffic. They tend to subsidize the price for the movies they feature to get folks into the stores and once there, these folks tend to buy other things. DVDs have been so effective for the company they threw their body at movie downloads initially and delayed the related services by several years. However, they have now realized that this kind of thing is coming regardless and have brought out their own movie download service to compete. But that doesn’t address the store traffic benefit that will be evaporating as people move away from DVDs for standard definition downloadable movies.

Wal-Mart sees the new high definition formats as a way to bring in store traffic again but they realized that won’t happen unless the players are affordable and there is only one standard. They recognized their own power in being king maker previously and are now using that power to drive the format that works best for them. They could care less about the technology as this is all about making money and they (like every other retailer in this space) know that two formats won’t allow the market to move outside of the fringes and the dual-mode players are simply way too expensive.

So they need one standard and a lot of players in market before their DVD customers wander off to download land and stops coming to Wal-Mart for movies.

Why HD-DVD and not Blu-Ray?

For Wal-Mart the only real metric is cost. Wal-mart doesn’t really make money off of the movies and do not sell high-end home theater equipment. They are known for aggressive prices and, as mentioned above, they subsidize their DVD sales. They needed something that could sell for under $200 soon and they needed the lowest cost of the new formats. This is where HD DVD shines, not only had Toshiba agreed to license to low cost manufacturers early on, but HD DVDs are pressed on the same lines that regular DVDs are, they require no major equipment change out and the blanks, when compared to Blu-Ray are less expensive as well.

This made the decision simple, Blu-Ray was just too expensive to make this work and any technical advantages were insignificant against Wal-Mart’s need for the lowest cost offering. For them it is about price and that is where HD DVD clearly has the sustainable advantage.

What does this Mean?

It means that any studio wanting Wal-Mart’s support after year end had better be selling HD DVD movies. Wal-Mart won’t be promoting Blu-Ray and, after year end, will increasingly focus their marketing on getting people to buy into HD DVD players and the related HD DVD movie from them.

In short, the Blu-Ray aligned studios will now have to either support both formats or risk losing much of Wal-Mart's business and given how material this business is to them, you have to think that an anti-Wall-Mart decision would have a material impact on their bonuses and career longevity. It certainly puts Columbia Pictures, which is owned by Sony, in a particularly uncomfortable position.

So, if this move by Wal-Mart is true , and it appears to be (but we won’t know for sure for a few months yet), the format war is likely over and Wal-Mart has declared the winner.
Click to expand...
 
A

avaya

Member
From HDD:

How The Domino's Fell

2008-01-04: Warner announce they goes Blu-ray exclusive. Delay all their new HD-DVD releases and will stop completely with HD-DVD after May.
2008-01-04: Universals movie Lust, Caution is first announced for HD-DVD but this was a "clerical mistake" and the title should not have been announced for HD-DVD, only DVD.
2008-01-04: HD DVD Promotion Group cancel their press conference at CES.
2008-01-08: New Line goes Blu-ray exclusive. Pan's Labyrinth is the first and last HD-DVD disc from New Line.
2008-01-09: HBO goes Blu-ray exclusive.
2008-01-09: All quiet on Universal front.
2008-01-09: Microsoft announce they are neutral in format war. Amir Majidimehr quits Microsoft at 2008-01-15.
2008-01-10: Paramount delay titles.
2008-01-11: Constantin Film goes Blu-ray exclusive.
2008-01-14: Toshiba have a fire sale on their newest models just like then they sold out the A2 player. No new players announced from the only producer of HD-DVD players...
2008-01-14: Digital Playground said they might go Blu-ray exclusive during 2008.
2008-01-16: Senator Home Entertainment goes Blu-ray exclusive.
2008-01-17: Paramount announce it's complete Q1 2008 slate. One new title not announced before was included (The Kite Runner), otherwise nothing new.
2008-01-18: Universal announce it's first and only one movie after Warners announcement. The box art did emerge a week before Warners announcement and is the first new title since December 18. One title per months from Universal?
2008-01-20: R&B Films goes Blu-ray exclusive.
2008-01-21: Trans World, one retailer with more than 800 stores starts to make more room for Blu-ray
2008-01-22: Grant's Appliances, one of the top 30 electronics retailers in the US, goes Blu-ray exclusive.
2008-01-24: Circuit City have a clearance sale on their last HD-DVD players. The price is now $100.04 for the Toshiba HDA3. The price was later changed by CC to standard $149.
2008-01-24: SF Film, Swedish distributor, goes Blu-ray exclusive.
2008-01-24: Scanbox, Swedish distributor, goes Blu-ray exclusive.
2008-01-28: Woolworths, one of the bigger retailers in UK with 820 shops, goes Blu-ray exclusive.
2008-01-28: FS-Film, Finnish distributor, have gone Blu-ray exclusive. Confirmed by email and all HD-DVD pages taken off-line.
2008-01-29: Wal-Mart starts to have HD-DVD players labelled as clearance items.
2008-01-29: Saturn, one of the bigger German retailers, have a exchange program to replace HD-DVD with Blu-ray.
2008-01-30: National Geographic have gone Blu-ray exclusive.
2008-01-30: Sonic Solutions, the largest developer of professional mastering programs, goes Blu-ray exclusive.
2008-01-31: Surround Records, former HD-DVD exclusive distributor, goes dual-support.
2008-02-01: Paramount announce Sweeney Todd, the second new movie announced by them this year and the third for Paramount/Dreamworks+Universal.
2008-02-01: Imation stops making HD-DVD-R/RW media and goes Blu-ray exclusive.
2008-02-04: BAC Films, French distributor, goes Blu-ray exclusive.
2008-02-04: Manga Films, Spanish distributor, goes Blu-ray exclusive.
2008-02-04: Onkyo drops HD-DVD support, atleast for now, in UK.
2008-02-05: Universal announce their second title after Warners announcement.
2008-02-05: OVA Films, German distributor, goes Blu-ray exclusive.
2008-02-07: Filmmax, Spanish distributor, goes Blu-ray exclusive.
2008-02-06: Microsoft drop the price on the add-on.
2008-02-08: Universal drops the re-issues of two titles, a large part of all announced titles for 2008.
2008-02-08: HiFi Klubben, Scandinavian retailer, goes Blu-ray exclusive.
2008-02-11: Netflix goes Blu-ray exclusive.
2008-02-11: Best Buy recommend Blu-ray and prominently showcase Blu-ray.
2008-02-12: Tripictures, Spanish distributor, goes Blu-ray exclusive.
2008-02-13: Paramount postpone Star Trek: Season 2.
2008-02-13: Wal-mart stop selling the HD-A3 and leaving the last HD-DVD player, Venturers Toshiba player at clearance.
2008-02-14: Opus Arte, former HD-DVD exclusive studio, goes neutral.
2008-02-14: Cameo, distributor in Spain, goes Blu-ray exclusive.
2008-02-15: Wal-Mart goes Blu-ray exclusive.
Click to expand...
 
D

djkimothy

Member
michaeld said:
Gaf's fav analyst Rob Enderle from last April
http://news.digitaltrends.com/talkback184.html
Wal-Mart Names HD DVD the Winner
Click to expand...

His most recent, Feb 13.

http://news.digitaltrends.com/talkback234.html

How Blu-Ray Won the Fight and Why It Probably Won’t Matter

:lol :lol

Many retailers have been piling on what has been a long string of bad news for the HD DVD camp and announced they were going to stop selling HD DVD players. Most recently, Best Buy and Netflix indicated they would be dropping HD DVD. Then, one Blu-Ray customer figured out he had been screwed by the Blu-Ray side and started a class action suit against one of the major Blu-Ray companies, something that is likely to accelerate.

As we went into the 4th quarter of 07, Toshiba and the HD DVD camp was certain they had this wrapped up. Their player prices were well below the Blu-Ray offerings, they had picked up several new studios and Sony’s PS3 was looking more like an anchor on Sony’s future than a help to Blu-Ray. In addition, they seemed to believe that Time Warner was going to go exclusively HD DVD shortly after the end of the year and had planned a massive announcement with Microsoft for CES.

The word “surprised” seems to be an inadequate term to describe what happened to them in January while their executives were in route to CES and Warner came out in favor of Blu-Ray, turning what was expected to be a victory for HD DVD to a route. Let’s chat about overconfidence and what happened.

Nintendo

With numbers showcasing that the PS3’s world wide sales went up sharply in the 3rd quarter there should be little doubt that much of this gain was due to extreme shortages of Nintendo’s Wii. The Wii had been on constraint for much of the year and Nintendo failed to bring on-line adequate manufacturing resources to meet demand, and the end result was that parents who wanted something for their kids were left with the Xbox 360 or the PS3. While both the Xbox and the PS3 seemed to benefit in the US, in Japan the Xbox underperforms Japanese sourced products sharply and it appears almost all of this demand went to the PS3 which turned in massive numbers according to Sony.

It was unlikely that parents in North America or Japan were going to buy their children two game systems and due to price advantages alone the Wii should have had much of this business, but you can’t buy what the stores didn’t have and premiums being paid for the few Wiis that did exist took the systems close to Sony prices which favored Sony.

The PS3 Advantage

Currently, Sony is feeling its oats and claiming they will bypass the Xbox 360 in Europe and, according to them, they are now outselling the Xbox 360 there 3 to 1. Given this is a 4th quarter market and we are likely in the slowest period for Game system sales I’m not sure I would connect those dots yet myself, but there is no doubt that Sony’s product is doing much better.

With the war all but decided it appears the Blu-Ray drive in the Sony is starting to become an advantage particularly given that the PS3 is currently the only affordable Blu-Ray offering that is likely to support the coming Blu-Ray 2.0 specification coming out early next year. So if you want a Blu-Ray product that won’t soon be obsolete you have to get an updatable product and that leaves you with the PS3 for the closest thing to a set-top box solution right now.

But, overall, you can’t deny that PS3 sales were a huge advantage for the Sony camp as the year closed.

Toshiba: Overconfidence Helped Defeat

Sony was between a rock and a hard place, if they lost the Blu-Ray fight the PS3 would have been collateral damage and the impact on Sony financially might have been terminal. This means that Sony, much like anyone fighting for their life, was willing to do almost anything to ensure they didn’t fail.

Toshiba, on the other hand, was so confident they were winning they felt no need to really push hard in the 4th quarter and let prices actually drift up for their HD DVD players which started the quarter with sub-$100 sales for older products and sub $200 prices for newer products but ended the quarter with prices drifting well above $200.

One thing you learn about pricing is that it is easy to go down but the market will probably not move with you if you go up and this was a significant tactical mistake. Now, given how strongly the PS3 ramped I’m not sure that keeping the prices low would have changed this outcome but letting them drift up did make the Blu-Ray win more certain.

Why Time Warner Called the Fight

Supporting two formats wasn’t doing anyone any good and the market was clearly signaling it was going to move to downloads long term and, particularly with the writer’s strike, Time Warner couldn’t wait 5 years. Blu-Ray movie sales stayed marginally ahead of HD DVD sales throughout most of the 4th quarter and the PS3 numbers clearly indicated there was a massively larger potential future opportunity for Blu-Ray. Add to this that Sony was likely willing to give Time Warner almost anything they wanted while Toshiba didn’t think they had to, and you get the recipe for the decision that Time Warner made. Though, I think it came too late.

Should You Buy a Blu-Ray Player?

With Blu-Ray 2.0 on the horizon you are still better picking up a PS3 if you will use it for games and can live with the Blu-Ray library. If you can use a PC solution and because there are still a lot of HD DVD movies, I’d suggest one of the new super hybrid-drives. Gateway just brought out a PC with one and Addonics has one that I’ve been using and like (and it works with a laptop but not on an airplane). This is because there are still a lot of movies both out and coming which will be HD DVD only for awhile.

Of course with the market moving towards downloads, if you have a high speed connection you may want to wait a bit and see what your cable , DSL or PC company is going to bring to market.

In the end the lesson here is don’t back a company up against the corner unless you are willing to do what it takes to deliver the killing blow and overconfidence isn’t the path to victory. Toshiba is clearly learning both lessons the hard way this year.


The End for Both

With the early adopters of both HD DVD and Blu-Ray (at least those that don’t have a PS3) likely really upset about their choices right now. Both (except for PS3) are looking at premature obsolescence which, as I mentioned in the opening, is likely to lead to more legal action before we are done. And with Microsoft, Apple, Cisco, and virtually all of the movie studios now moving to downloads (along with folks like Netflix) it just seems like the market is going to move on to me. Right now, if you want to watch movies on a plane or in a car, you really can’t easily use Blu-Ray anyway (few laptops, none of them Apple laptops, have it as an option) and buying several copies of the same movie, on top of the Blu-Ray premium, just seems excessive to me. Now there is an alternative HD format entering the segment that addresses the portability issue and, clearly another format isn’t going to help folks choose.

The real question in my mind is whether the folks like Apple will get this right first (the libraries are very limited) or the Cable companies will simply own this segment. Cable companies move slower but they subsidize the hardware which cuts down dramatically on the cost. I simply don’t see anything to suggest, including the PS3 sales numbers, that we are going to have enough Blu-Ray players in the market before downloads go mainstream and Blu-Ray will go the way of the Laser Disk as a result. Of course Blu-Ray could live on as a kind of wicked mini-lightsaber.

Seriously, if you look at this in-depth review of HD downloads, if the download side can get the content and people have the bandwidth, it truly is now good enough and far more convenient.
Click to expand...
 
R

Raistlin

Post Count: 9999
VanMardigan said:
Apparently, even in terms of disc structure. Did you read my quote?
Click to expand...

Yes ... I was just reiterating since there appears to still be people that were unaware. In case you didn't notice, I was already aware of his involvement :p


IIRC, the 4 primary large-scale projects Ken was involved in during his post as Sony Prez where:

* Sony/Samsung LCD establishment
* BluRay
* CELL
* PS3
 
Z

Zombie James

Banned
sonycowboy said:
With so few players out there, the small amount of PS3's looked like the saviour for the Blu-Ray movie sales in the 2nd half of 07.
Click to expand...

IIRC, Blu-ray software sales beat out HD-DVD software for all of 2007.
 
R

Raistlin

Post Count: 9999
GuessWho said:
so wait when blu ray is declared winner this mess of a thread can finally be closed.
Click to expand...

I hope so.


Once it is official, I say lock this thread within a day ... and then sticky the HDM thread.
 
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