Is Alan Wake II destined to be a sales flop?

Represent.

Represent.

Represent(ative) of bad opinions
5 days away from launch and the lack of marketing would make Jim Ryan proud. Haven't seen a single TV ad, billboard or even launch trailer.

No word on when the review embargo lifts. Apparently codes still haven't even been sent out yet. Usually that speaks to lack of confidence in your product. However the game does look fantastic.

Not to mention it's releasing right in between 2 juggernauts. A week after Spider-Man 2, a week-ish before fucking Modern Warfare 3.

No marketing
Minimal hype
No review score hype
Releasing between two juggernauts

Massive sales flop incoming?
 
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Well the first one was a flop, and to be honest all Remedy games are flops of different levels, they're niche games for a niche audience that just happen to have high production values. Fans will enjoy it but it's not gonna be some massive hit.
 
SimTourist said:
Well the first one was a flop, and to be honest all Remedy games are flops of different levels, they're niche games for a niche audience that just happen to have high production values. Fans will enjoy it but it's not gonna be some massive hit.
Click to expand...
They can sell in the long way, but yeah, kind of a flop in the "normal way"
 
EGS exclusive.
~1/3 of the PC market excluded due the lack of a vertax shader path
Digital Only

They're certainly stacking the odds against themselves but I'm assuming someone ran the numbers and they determined that this was the optimal approach for them. If it fails, they'll have no one to blame but themselves.
 
yeah it was never going to set the world on fire but they are messing in multiple ways as well.
epic store and those hefty system reqs will hurt big time on pc.
biggest console base is currently busy with spider2,
should have released before that one.

maybe a 90+ meta would help, but not counting on it either.
 
I have a hard time paying 60$ for a 12 hr game, which is what I'm guessing Alan Wake 2 clocks in at. Unless it is doing something revolutionary, whether from a gameplay or story perspective, I'm going to wait for it to hit 30$ or so. Previews sounded great!
 
Lets just be grateful its even coming out. They got backing and support from epic, they got the opportunity to make this game. It will sell decently, both devs and players are winning here no matter how much copies they gonna sell. I wish them the best tho, im super stocked for it
 
Relying on Steam imo

The game looks great and ten times better than the original so word of mouth should be on its side.
 
rhodesianshepard said:
I have a hard time paying 60$ for a 12 hr game, which is what I'm guessing Alan Wake 2 clocks in at. Unless it is doing something revolutionary, whether from a gameplay or story perspective, I'm going to wait for it to hit 30$ or so. Previews sounded great!
Click to expand...

They said its their biggest game yet, around 18-20 hours
 
I loved the first Alan Wake and American Nightmare, but Remedy said this game is full on survival horror, which I do not like at all. I'm just hoping it isn't really that bad, otherwise I won't play it, maybe get gamepass for a month or something to try it. I liked the first game because it didn't take itself too seriously and had a lot of fun. This one seems to be the exact opposite.
 
Maybe they should have named it something else. Some might see it as a great looking horror game but haven't played the first game.
 
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Well Flop will depend on their budget an expectations.

Re4 remake which is a way more popular game from a way more popular franchise which launched with a stronger marketing campaign on more platforms (ps4 too), with a physical release and came to Steam on day 1 with lower system requirements sold 5 million units in 4 months.

If they are expecting Alan Wake to sell more than like 2 mill by the end of the year IMO they are being unrealistic
 
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Define flop?

Remedy already made Bank on this game.

Epic basically paid this game and then some, Remedy is already loaded with the ROI they needed.

Now as far as sales are concerned? Yeah being exclusive to EGS seals the deal on not doing great, maybe even very badly.

As for Consoles like you said it's coming right after Spidey and before Modern Warfare 3.

It's dead Jim.
 
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amigastar said:
I hope they will have success, i love Remedy. But you're right OP, not much marketing going on.
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Same with all of their games...

I'm a huge fan btw so I'll get it, I replayed through AW Remastered recently just for this, I'm hyped. But yeah I'll never understand why such a AAA/AAAA doesn't have more hype, their games are always awesome, at least as good as any AAA Sony solo exclusive.
 
Remedy were over the moon when Control did 2 million in 12 months.
For a SquareEnix exec thats a massive massive flop.....for them its a success.

qp5qbv1ve6461.jpg



Even after the "slow" sales of Control, this was the CEO speaking about how proud he was off the game:


Remedy CEO:
"We don't quite require the same huge lifetime numbers as many other games with bigger development budgets," CEO Tero Virtala told Games Industry.

"Therefore, even though Control didn't have chart-topping sales right from the get go, we are in a good position with steady sales. We always take the long view here."

Virtala added that launch sales aren't as important as they used to be for games. Thanks to digital distribution, games now continue to sell over a long period of time.

"Control continues to sell, which is good. It has the proven high-quality and uniqueness, and the word-of-mouth that keeps growing. There is still a big audience out there that hasn't yet heard of Control. These are all factors that support the longer-term sales," Virtala said.
"Virtala is happy that Control managed to establish itself as a new IP. For being a mostly self-funded project on a tight budget, and a new IP to top it all off, Control has done pretty well for Remedy"
www.vg247.com

Control was developed in 3 years with a €30 million budget

Control may not have topped the charts, but Remedy is happy with how the game is selling.
www.vg247.com www.vg247.com




Atelier Ryza sold 500,000 units and Gust nearly shit their pants at that level of success.......500,000 units would be considered low for some western indie titles.


So you really have to define flop based on budget, team and their own sales expectations.
What we might consider low they might consider high.
Its not going to do 10 million units, its not going to do CoD numbers, but for them thats fine, it might as well be an indie title considering they are publishing with EGP.
 
You make a good point about the lack of codes being sent out. You would think reviewers would have the game by now, judging by how much they previewed it before.

The game might be great, but I fear it might be a bugfest upon release. We'll see how it fairs, it could have some legs with a few sales.
 
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Predict poor launch sales followed by new life once they release it on steam. Maybe they will call the steam release, Alan Wake Super Edition.
 
EGS exclusive, high system requirements with 0 support for pascal and under, lack of physical

no ones buying this game lol.
 
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I will always try to support devs that don't have the budget for it but willing to go the extra lengths for their game. Unfortunately, one of their actions prevents me from doing so. When they release a physical copy, you can immediately add me as a customer.
 
This isn't a mass market game like Arachnid Fellow. I imagine that many people into it have been made aware of its release and have seen previews. This is a game for people with the very latest hardware who want something impressive, and those people are actively looking for content.
 
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Represent. said:
5 days away from launch and the lack of marketing would make Jim Ryan proud. Haven't seen a single TV ad, billboard or even launch trailer.

No word on when the review embargo lifts. Apparently codes still haven't even been sent out yet. Usually that speaks to lack of confidence in your product. However the game does look fantastic.

Not to mention it's releasing right in between 2 juggernauts. A week after Spider-Man 2, a week-ish before fucking Modern Warfare 3.

No marketing
Minimal hype
No review score hype
Releasing between two juggernauts

Massive sales flop incoming?
Click to expand...

I feel like I never see commercials for games on TV anymore..
 
It will flop. PC version will sell about five and a half copies due to EGS scloosivity and HW reqs, and console gamers don't much give a fuck about Alan Wake.

Over long term, with sales and potential steam release, it might get into black, but I doubt it will happen in the first year.

But hey, parents of fortnite kids are footing this bill, and it is better spent on AW2 than on some fortnite expansion or whatever.
 
Represent. said:
5 days away from launch and the lack of marketing would make Jim Ryan proud. Haven't seen a single TV ad, billboard or even launch trailer.

No word on when the review embargo lifts. Apparently codes still haven't even been sent out yet. Usually that speaks to lack of confidence in your product. However the game does look fantastic.

Not to mention it's releasing right in between 2 juggernauts. A week after Spider-Man 2, a week-ish before fucking Modern Warfare 3.

No marketing
Minimal hype
No review score hype
Releasing between two juggernauts

Massive sales flop incoming?
Click to expand...
On PC it's Epic Store Exclusive as well. It also requires RDNA 2+ and GeForce 2000 series or higher GPUs.
 
Will it matter?

This is going to be a poster child for Path Tracing, Nvidia will have pumped many Spondoolies into Remedy coffers to help with the budget, in anticipation of more GPU sales.
 
These super demanding on hardware games also have VERY long tails. A lot of PC gamers buy showcase games when they upgrade their PCs. Cyberpunk, Control, Crysis and similar stay relevant for much longer than just the launch window.

I am not getting it now, but will be first in line when I upgrade.
 
They have a relatively small team of 130 people so their sales requirements won't be as high as other AAA releases. That being said, they are doing absolutely everything they can to piss off as many people as possible with this one (EGS exclusive, very high PC requirements, no physical release, 'Alan Woke II'), so it would not surprise me if they struggle to hit their targets.
 
Wasn't it implied that sales arn't important as Epic has funded everything to do with it in favour of making it a complete exclusive? I get the feeling that's why they've pushed to make this such a beast graphics wise too.
 
Now that the specs have been released (with mesh shaders requirement) along with Epic exclusivity, yes. How did these decisions make sense during production planning?
 
The development cost has already been covered. And if it fails, what are the impacts? Remedy already has their Max Payne remakes lined up, so it's not like their company hangs in the balance here.

I honestly don't think it will sell well compared to heavy hitters, but I'll be buying it day one and be glad that it was made.
 
I really really liked the series when it came out. American Nightmare was awesome and the series as a whole really resonated with me, especially being on a huge Twin Peaks kick at the time. That said, I just have sooo much to play; and much more that I haven't even picked up yet that if in the smallest of chances I had time or money for an extra game at the moment the fact that it's on Epic kinda kills my enthusiasm for getting it.

I have so much to play already that to fracture my collection and annoy my future self would bug me. I'll wait for it to come to Steam. By then, maybe I'll have played some of all the shit I need to play.

I hope it does well though. I really like Remedy as a studio and have been a fan for 25+ years or so. Not everything they've done has been a homerun, but more often than not, you can at least see the passion and care they have for what they release.
 
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It certainly has some things going against it. Epic exclusive. Digital only. Sequel to an Xbox exclusive. Being an Alan Wake fan myself I hope it does well, but I have realistic expectations.
 
Considering Steam concurrent player count seems to be the only valid success metric I suspect it won't do that great.
 
SimTourist said:
Well the first one was a flop, and to be honest all Remedy games are flops of different levels, they're niche games for a niche audience that just happen to have high production values. Fans will enjoy it but it's not gonna be some massive hit.
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Well said.

If you're a gamer who loves SP games with cinematics in third person view, where the game is one part drama cut scenes and one part action/thriller gameplay, Remedy games are going to score highly. If you dont like these kinds of games, steer clear.
 
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Fbh said:
Well Flop will depend on their budget an expectations.

Re4 remake which is a way more popular game from a way more popular franchise which launched with a stronger marketing campaign on more platforms (ps4 too), with a physical release and came to Steam on day 1 with lower system requirements sold 5 million units in 4 months.

If they are expecting Alan Wake to sell more than like 2 mill by the end of the year IMO they are being unrealistic
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Control sold about 400-500K by July 2019, and I gather it was a disappointment, but not catastrophic. I'm guessing AWII lands around there, too.

Edit: this number is misleading. See Black_Stride Black_Stride 's response
 
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The first one didn't sell well at full price and the second one is only available at epic (understandable through funding but still) and digital exclusive to consoles. I cant imagine it hitting sales targets.
 
LaughingStock said:
I'll wait for the steam release.
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Denton said:
It will flop. PC version will sell about five and a half copies due to EGS scloosivity and HW reqs, and console gamers don't much give a fuck about Alan Wake.

Over long term, with sales and potential steam release, it might get into black, but I doubt it will happen in the first year.

But hey, parents of fortnite kids are footing this bill, and it is better spent on AW2 than on some fortnite expansion or whatever.
Click to expand...

I seriously doubt this ever comes to Steam. If it was a simple moneyhat then yes but Epic published this. Epic currently only has 2 games on Steam.
 
I dont think remedy cares how many copies it sells. They got an Epic store payout. As long as the moneyhat is a decent bag of money, who cares. Remedy got the money.

Remedy games dont typically sell well anyway. So might as well take an e-store payout to cover costs instead of trying to make it selling millions of copies. There is no way AWII sells a lot of copies no matter how many platforms and PC e-stores it's on.
 
I think it will do better than those expecting it to flop will do.

But I don't think it will be world beating or even close.
 
Grildon Tundy said:
Control sold about 400-500K by July 2019, and I gather it was a disappointment, but not catastrophic. I'm guessing AWII lands around there, too.
Click to expand...

Funny cuz the game came out in August 2019.

And they [Remedy and 505 Games] were very happy with the games performance.
The CEO of Remedy and 505s parent companies investor call pointed out the performance was better than expected as they dont expect 10 million units day one or whatever SquareEnix executives expect these days.


qp5qbv1ve6461.jpg



Remedy CEO:
"We don't quite require the same huge lifetime numbers as many other games with bigger development budgets," CEO Tero Virtala told Games Industry.

"Therefore, even though Control didn't have chart-topping sales right from the get go, we are in a good position with steady sales. We always take the long view here."

Virtala added that launch sales aren't as important as they used to be for games. Thanks to digital distribution, games now continue to sell over a long period of time.

"Control continues to sell, which is good. It has the proven high-quality and uniqueness, and the word-of-mouth that keeps growing. There is still a big audience out there that hasn't yet heard of Control. These are all factors that support the longer-term sales," Virtala said.
"Virtala is happy that Control managed to establish itself as a new IP. For being a mostly self-funded project on a tight budget, and a new IP to top it all off, Control has done pretty well for Remedy"
 
It's not gonna sell a lot but I'm glad it exists. Just wish someone else had picked it up instead of epic, it wouldve done well on steam.
 
rhodesianshepard said:
I have a hard time paying 60$ for a 12 hr game, which is what I'm guessing Alan Wake 2 clocks in at. Unless it is doing something revolutionary, whether from a gameplay or story perspective, I'm going to wait for it to hit 30$ or so. Previews sounded great!
Click to expand...

Good thing they said the game is more like 15-20 and the price is $50 and not $60 then!
 
Yeh like where is marketing for this game lol, seems like epic run out of money and don't really believe in this game, might have been a good idea to be PlayStation exclusive, that way sony would have marketed it. And would've been some extra buzz for being exclusive.
 
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