Was about to make a thread on this but was waiting for someone else to first.
It is kind of crazy to think that the console segment in Japan hasn't grown the past five years and yet PC has nearly
tripled in its size within the same time span. If such growth continues, it will ultimately come at the expense of console market share within the country. Yes mobile has dropped maybe 5% during that period, but it has nearly 70% of Japan's gaming market share even now. Needless to say, PC growth won't encroach on mobile anytime soon, but could in fact relegate consoles to the lesser platform in the territory given another five years, and given Sony/SIE and/or Microsoft don't innovate for market share growth again.
And this should be
particularly worrisome for Sony/SIE (IMHO), for a variety of reasons. For starters, it debunks the idea that PC is not a competitor to console: we have an example right here where PC is gaining market share mostly at the expense of the console market, be it a stagnating market (mainly due to PlayStation and Xbox), or declining market (same). Secondly, while "PC" is a catch-all for a bevy of different storefronts, the dominant OS Japanese gamers are likely using for those is Windows...which Microsoft owns. Meaning, this is at worst a lateral gain, and in ways a net gain for Microsoft in something they've always wanted to do: squeeze Sony out of the gaming market as a threat (as a platform holder).
The last but most concerning thing is, what's happening in Japan could just as easily happen in other, more Western countries where currently PlayStation is making some small gains over Xbox. There are several European markets where PC is a pretty sizable segment, and if what happens in Japan happens in those places, PC gaming's growth (if it grows) would come predominantly at the expense of console market share. Arguably, we are seeing this already in some European countries: despite being roughly on par with PS4 launch-aligned in Japan, ahead of PS4 launch-aligned in the US, launch-aligned in the UK and supposedly seeing big sales in emerging markets like China, the PS5 is still globally some 2+ million behind PS4 launch-aligned. Why is that? Chances are, it's because of several European markets, and if those gamers aren't jumping on PS5 yet aren't strictly staying behind on PS4, where are they going? Chances are, it's PC.
What's more, I don't know if systems like the PS5 Pro are answers to addressing this potential problem. In fact they might be enabling more migration to PC, not less. Especially this gen where, rightly or wrongly, some feel that the gen has barely started and yet there's already a mid-gen refresh. These people could feel as though they're being told their initial purchase of the regular system was a waste of time, and that the "real" PS5 is coming out now. So, if they sold their PS5 prior and wanted to get the "real" PS5...welp pay up $700. If they're somewhere that they can't trade in their used PS5...welp pay up the $700 for the "real" PS5. This isn't my POV BTW; I'm just saying there is probably some small portion of PS5 owners who might be feeling this way, and this could lead them towards alternative platforms to invest in, such as PC (specifically, any number of the major storefronts on PC, most likely Steam).
This trend could also prove that chasing more power for the sake of more power, isn't the answer going forward either. So people expecting the next PlayStation to be some 50 TF/100 TF 64 GB monster with a 5090-level GPU...they might want to go take a nap and refresh themselves. Because that just isn't happening, especially not when budgets & TOD (Time of Development) for AAA titles keeps increasing.
Ultimatey I'm glad that PC gaming is seeing growth, but if I'm Sony or Microsoft, it should be concerning that in markets like Japan it's mainly Nintendo who's keeping consoles afloat. It should be concerning that Japan may not be an outlier in this as time goes on. It should be concerning that PC's growth is mainly coming at the expense of consoles. And if I'm Sony/SIE, it should be concerning that all of this PC gaming growth is in some way still under the domain of Microsoft since it's happening with Windows as the dominant PC OS.
If I'm Sony/SIE, I either try getting a PS PC launcher going ASAP and push it to high heaven, or I do everything to drive innovation in value and catalog with PlayStation hardware to grow the console market in an additive way (i.e not just relying on scooping up Xbox or Nintendo market share to grow PlayStation's). And right now it just feels like SIE are meandering somewhere in the middle of those two choices. The time to make the decision should be
now, not five years from now, and they have to choose one because it's not gonna be possible to do both simultaneously. It simply won't be possible, without one suffering at the expense of the other. We've seen it in action already with Microsoft, and they have the advantage of owning Windows and being a $3 trillion mega-conglomerate.
Makes sense. A lot of games are getting PC ports out faster these days, if not day one. And PlayStation getting more and more expensive + moving away from their types of games. Another reason why Nintendo Switch is king and dominating in the east.
Microsoft and Xbox going hybrid would a smart choice going forward, if they go the route. I wouldn't be surprised if they catch up or daresay surpass PlayStation next generation (in Japan); if they release a semi decent PC/console. The handheld in particular.
They would not catch up to or surpass PS in Japan next gen even with a hybrid PC/console approach to their business model and features for the platform. Because even if PS declines gen-on-gen, they'd still do 5-6 million with PS6 (potentially 9-10 million w/ a proper handheld + PS6) and that's with the current trajectory PS5 is seeing.
MS's approach next gen would not be in pushing volume, and they'd likely target 20-25 million lifetime if things go right (and they're the only ones manufacturing the hardware). That probably gives them 2-3 million in Japan between whatever configurations they go for. Now, if they do everything right in terms of the hardware approach and also get other OEMs onboard, maybe that could increase to 4-5 million in Japan.
IF they got SEGA as one of those manufacturers, and depending on what type of devices SEGA decided to make, they could probably get within 7-8 million lifetime in Japan.
So not enough to meet or beat a best-case for Sony/SIE, but it'd be significantly more competitive and would be the best Xbox has ever done in Japan for a generation. Again though, it staying this close kind of assumes Sony/SIE keep making mistakes in Japan, push high hardware prices next-gen and don't have software appealing to the market. It also kind of assumes Switch 2 performs on par with Switch in Japan . If Switch 2 were to do better than Switch 1 there, it'd mainly come at the expense of PlayStation sales. If Sony/SIE don't have a proper portable companion next-gen, then MS could beat them with a hybrid PC/console approach in that market, provided they themselves don't make any major mistakes.
But if Sony/SIE actually start prioritizing Japan again with the hardware & software, they'd likely quickly reverse whatever declines in momentum PS5 is bringing and would be able to start tracking to perhaps hit between PS4 & PS3 numbers there. If they also reversed or scaled back in certain policy decisions regarding multiplatform, make PS+ more appealing & reasonably priced, or do something drastic like remove the online paywall...well no, MS can't compete with
all of that and a likely PS6 portable no matter how good an offering they bring with the next line of Xbox hardware.
Then again, they wouldn't need to, and could comfortably carve out a healthy niche in Japan. Certainly better than any Xbox generation beforehand, by a wide margin.