Kickstarter games "in decline"

GavinUK86

GavinUK86

Member
http://www.eurogamer.net/articles/2014-10-02-kickstarter-games-in-2014-are-making-less-than-half-what-they-did-last-year

This new data comes from an analysis by consultancy firm ICO Partners. Based on data from the first half of the year - extrapolated to estimate its remaining half - ICO estimated that we'll see $27,023,480 poured into gaming projects this year. That sounds all well and good, but is rather lackluster compared to 2013's record of $57,934,417.

There's a few reasons for this. One is high profile flops likes Yogventures and Clang, while last year saw a number of known brands and developers flooding the crowdfunding site. We had Torment, Mighty Number 9, Elite: Dangerous, Camelot Unchained, Dreamfall, and Richard Garriott's Shroud of the Avatar all raking in dough from longtime fans.
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Last year there were 21 games that raised over a half million dollars. Comparatively, this year we've had three games breach that barrier: Amplitude HD, Unsung Story, and Kingdom Come: Deliverance.
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Furthermore, we've seen a roughly 20 per cent drop in successful gaming projects on the crowdfunding site. Last year we saw 446 successfully funded games on Kickstarter, while this year we're expected to only see around 350.
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Well, isn't that interesting?
 
The article itself is pretty much /thread. It touches upon high profile failures making users more cautious, fewer notable projects and competition with Greenlight.
 
I backed several high profile games in 2012 & 2013. Until they're all released I'm kind of done with backing for a while.

Also, a new generation is here that has finally brought a lot of content to occupy my time. The original kickstarter boom happened at the end of last generation when I was starved for new content to experience.

And as for the high profile flops, I've never heard of them. What is "Yogcast"? It's certainly not a Wasteland 2 or Divinity: Original Sin in my book.
 
http://www.gamesindustry.biz/articl...ers-report-suggests-kickstarter-is-in-decline

Expect a drop in pledge value this year of 50%.

However, where Thomas does see some cause for concern is in the amount of money being pledged to those projects. In the first half of 2014, $13,511,740.36 was pledged to games projects on Kickstarter. That's a lot of cash, but it pales in comparison to the total for last year. If we double the number for January-June 2014, we get $27,023,480.72 - again, an impressive commitment from backers. But, as ICO's research shows, that's less than half of 2013's total of $57,934,417.74..
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"If you consider that there have been 21 projects getting more than $500k in funding in 2013 and only 3 in 2014 so far, you might feel that Kickstarter is done for large projects," says Bidaux. "But looking at the projects profiles, a lot of those big hits in 2013 were banking on strong 'brands': Torment, Mighty Number 9, Elite, Camelot Unchained, Dreamfall, Richard Garriott's Shroud of the Avatar, etc. The three projects that raised over $500k in 2014 are Kingdom Come: Deliverance, Amplitude and Unsung Story. Hardly the wave of known brands that flooded Kickstarter last year."
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Perhaps the biggest factor, however, could be that eternal curse of the first to market - that a better known, better funded company with a bigger audience will adapt your idea and enter your market, pulling cash and attention away from your business. Enter Valve and Steam Early Access.

There are clear differences between the two, obviously. In fact, many games that go on to participate in Early Access have already achieved funding via Kickstarter. However, Early Access allows developers to maintain a longer, closer point of contact with backers/customers, on a well trusted and prevalent platform which is geared up for regular updates and community discussion. Whilst other crowdfunding alternatives like IndieGoGo may not have troubled Kickstarter too much, Early Access has had a definite impact.
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Do folks feel like that's true? Article also talks about "fatigue" and a "sour taste" from delayed or cancelled projects.
 
Kickstarter is a great idea and excellent games came out from it, but it seems that the great games are the exception, and the cancelled projects / scams are the norm.
 
It seems like its everything, not just one thing. I think its a very good thing that certain kickstarter projects turned out so well or the whole thing would have been doomed from the very start.

Surprised Vavle doesn't start its own form of fundraising for indie games. (early access is very different)
 
I remember the discussion about Kickstarter fatigue here on GAF, but then Pillars of Eternity happened, Torment: Tides of Numenera, and several other highly successful Kickstarters.

I don't think this is an indication of crowd-funding losing its appeal or some form of Kickstarter fatigue. There was an enormous amount of new projects during those first two years, and a lot of them are just now coming out, or still in active development. It's only a matter of time before these developers come back to Kickstarter to start a new project. I also believe that once more of these Kickstarter projects get released and turn out to be great games people will be more willing to invest, perhaps either those who were hesitant before, or made smaller investments before. Secondly, it's obvious that the high-profile developers are getting the most attention. Having some level of trust that a Kickstarter can deliver is important, and most of these developers are still working on their Kickstarter projects.

For me personally Kickstarter has led to some of the best games I've played this year (Divinity: Original Sin although only partially funded, and Wasteland 2). Pillars of Eternity has enormous potential as well. Once Obsidian announces their next new IP Kickstarter project I will almost certainly support it. Other developers who have demonstrated they can release quality games will likely get my support as well. A few that I've backed this year include Darkest Dungeon, InSomnia, and the Pathologic remake.
 
I feel like people were donating to Kickstarter in bulk at the end of the last generation because big releases were slowing down and it was neat seeing some different stuff being pitched on Kickstarter.

Now that the new consoles are out and games are coming out for them at a decent clip there is less time and money going to Kickstarter. Just my take on the matter.
 
Reluctant-Hero said:
I backed several high profile games in 2012 & 2013. Until they're all released I'm kind of done with backing for a while.

Also, a new generation is here that has finally brought a lot of content to occupy my time. The original kickstarter boom happened at the end of last generation when I was starved for new content to experience.

And as for the high profile flops, I've never heard of them. What is "Yogcast"? It's certainly not a Wasteland 2 or Divinity: Original Sin.
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Yogcast is actually a pretty damn huge youtube channel with millions of watchers. They were one of the first people to well, make Minecraft popular.
 
Honorio said:
Kickstarter is a great idea and excellent games came out from it, but it seems that the great games are the exception, and the cancelled projects / scams are the norm.
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How many times does Stump's list need to be posted before its obvious this is a fallacy?
 
For me, a fatigue and sour taste has definitely set in. I think Mighty No 9 asking for even more money for voice acting after their first Kickstarter broke all records was the last straw for me.
 
overshoot.

Trigger
Peak of inflated expectations
trough of disillusionment
slope of enlightenment
plateau of productivity

Kickstarter is somewhere early in phase 3.
It isn't so easy to be a profitable games publisher after all. Stuff gets cancelled and investors lose money.

Except in kickstarter, investors upside is highly capped.

Imagine being a $1000 backer for kickstarter minecraft. How would you feel now with your signed poster and lunch memory with Notch. Would you ever do that again?
 
One thing that industry veterans mentioned is that developers have to contend with 2008-2013 AAA titles in the sub-$15 price bracket.

Another thing is that bigger companies themselves (e.g. Ubisoft) are jumping into the nostalgia market that was traditionally sparked by KS.
 
It's fatigue and sour taste here. I'll buy games that are finished and that appeal to me with a finished product, not based on vague promises that may or may not be lived up to. It's the same reason I stopped pre-ordering games.
 
Rule #1: Only kickstart games by reputable developers who have worked in the industry before. I've only kickstarted Grim Dawn, Wasteland 2, Pillars of Eternity and Mighty No. 9, specifically because they are from devs who I can trust.

Rule #2: Do not kickstart "debut" games by unknown developers.
 
Tempesta di Fuoco said:
Rule #1: Only kickstart games by reputable developers who have worked in the industry before.

Rule #2: Do not kickstart "debut" games by unknown developers.
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I also do this: Imagine the project completely falls apart and nobody ends up getting any pledge rewards. Are you still comfortable with the amount you pledged?
 
Swen Vincke at Larian had a blog post about this.

Just today there’s been a report from a consultancy firm called Ico partners that there’s less money going to fewer game projects on Kickstarter. They project that Kickstarter earnings in 2014 will be half of what they were in 2013, and blame “the lack of low-hanging fruit, a waning enthusiasm – partly driven by some high-profile failures – and the introduction of some serious and well publicized alternatives”, the latter referring to the rise of Steam Early Access.

According to the article quoting the Ico report, half of the money in 2013 was brought in by the big names and the question is raised whether it’s really a case of waning popularity or just a gap in the schedule because all those big names are now busy delivering on their promises. And if the latter is the case, the question remains if this indeed negatively affects the smaller projects because less people are attracted to the crowd funding platforms.
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http://www.lar.net/2014/10/01/the-halo-effect/
 
Tempesta di Fuoco said:
Rule #1: Only kickstart games by reputable developers who have worked in the industry before. I've only kickstarted Grim Dawn, Wasteland 2, Pillars of Eternity and Mighty No. 9, specifically because they are from devs who I can trust.

Rule #2: Do not kickstart "debut" games by unknown developers.
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Pretty much, though I might throw a couple bucks at a game with a solid proof of concept (e.g. a playable demo).
 
adj_noun said:
I also do this: Imagine the project completely falls apart and nobody ends up getting any pledge rewards. Are you still comfortable with the amount you pledged?
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Rule #4: Only kickstart enough to get a copy of the game, so if the project falls apart, you only lose $15-$20 or so. If project gets going and is coming along, up your pledge to get higher rewards.
 
Not surprise. Steam Early Access shows how crappy a game can be and the cancellation of KS projects by multiple big names made ppl wary of it.

Though out of 6 projects I backed, only 1 has been released---Broken Sword 5. I guess them taking too long also contribute to it.
 
A lot of us who bought into the kickstarters from last year are waiting for them to deliver before throwing money to a bunch of new ones.
 
I think it's a bit of fatigue and also quite a lot of the bigger developers are either still working on titles or have barely released them. It'll cycle back around in a year or two. Right now there's still stuff by Inafune, Obsidian, Chris Roberts, Double Fine, Wayforward, Inxile, etc in the wings.

Personally between FTL, Divinity, Wasteland, The Banner Saga, and Shadowrun, I've been more than satisfied with the output. The only high profile ones that have really went bust or been letdowns were obvious stinkers (Yogcast) so I never really had any expectations for them.
 
This felt a bit, well, inevitable, and not in a bad way. There was a huge peak of interest, and now it's waned off in a natural way. I don't think it reflects much on the quality or otherwise of the delivered projects, just a natural decrease over time.
 
good...while the number of games decline, the expectations have risen....people arent willing to just accept BS anymore
 
Add 90's Arcade Racer to the list of games that may never see release.

Its developer, who was very communicative early, has been very quiet. Only two updates in six months and the game is nearly a year late.
 
Really unsurprising. Too many mismanaged projects will make people not want to pledge anything to anyone.
 
Honorio said:
Kickstarter is a great idea and excellent games came out from it, but it seems that the great games are the exception, and the cancelled projects / scams are the norm.
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Erm, it's actually the other way around.


Great games? Plenty of them already:

Divinity: Original Sin
Wasteland 2
Shovel Knight
FTL
Banner Saga
Star Citizen
Broken Sword 5
Hyper Light Drifter
The new Tex Murphy
Defense Grid 2
Pier Solar HD
Giana Sisters
Road Redemption
The Book of Unwritten Tales 2
Sir, You Are Being Hunted
Planet Explorers
Neverending Nightmares
Spintires
Chivalry: Medieval Warfare

And those are only a few examples, there are many other games that got funded and completed. There's also many games on development right now that seem great and don't seem to be headed for any kind of cancelation.


Meanwhile the only scam/cancellation I can name is the Yogscast Adventures thingy.
 
Naminator said:
People can donate ridiculous amounts of money for third rate indie games for only so long until they just give up.
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I'd like to know what you consider first-rate when

Divinity: Original Sin
Wasteland 2
Shadowrun: Returns
Shadowrun: Dragonfall
Xenonauts
Broken Age (Incomplete)
Kentucky Route Zero
FTL: Faster Than Light
The Banner Saga

are considered third rate. Furthermore Kickstarter is the reason we're in the RPG renaissance we're currently in, and there are still many which haven't been released.
 
thankfully.

this is exploitation at its finest. get money from someone else, bear no risk, no roi for those who put in cash, take all the profits, all while having the monthly income to survive and feed yourself and no deadlines.
 
Honorio said:
Kickstarter is a great idea and excellent games came out from it, but it seems that the great games are the exception, and the cancelled projects / scams are the norm.
Click to expand...

Scams are actually the vast minority, but they tend to get high-profile media coverage. Meanwhile, one of the potential GOTY candidates, Divinity: OS, barely gets any media coverage at all.
 
Arulan said:
I'd like to know what you consider first-rate when

Divinity: Original Sin
Wasteland 2
Shadowrun: Returns
Shadowrun: Dragonfall
Xenonauts
Broken Age (Incomplete)
Kentucky Route Zero
FTL: Faster Than Light
The Banner Saga
are considered third rate. Furthermore Kickstarter is the reason we're in the RPG renaissance we're currently in, and there are still many which haven't been released.
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Maybe I don't remember it correctly but weren't the most kickstarters not about to add some features and not about to make them possible in the first place?

The good ones are normally in a pretty advanced stage already.
 
Tempesta di Fuoco said:
Rule #1: Only kickstart games by reputable developers who have worked in the industry before. I've only kickstarted Grim Dawn, Wasteland 2, Pillars of Eternity and Mighty No. 9, specifically because they are from devs who I can trust.

Rule #2: Do not kickstart "debut" games by unknown developers.
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And yet, some of those debut games include stuff like Shovel Knight, The Banner Saga, FTL, SpinTires, Gods Will Be Watching, Darkwood...

Grief.exe said:
Scams are actually the vast minority, but they tend to get high-profile media coverage. Meanwhile, one of the potential GOTY candidates, Divinity: OS, barely gets any media coverage at all.
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Yup, this

People love to jump on the bandwagon and when some high profile failure or scam happens, and equally love to ignore all the numerous successful campaigns that have finished and released, are playable by backers, or get regular dev updates. At least that's what I've seen on NeoGAF
 
I wonder if overcrowding is also turning people away.

If anyone hasnt yet, check out some of the lesser/zero funded projects. People with no development experience, no gameplay, no concept art, nothing to show are asking for 70k+. There are people who will tell you in the pitch video with a straight face that they will be "hiring people" to make the game for them. Some guy apparently wanted like 100k to hire everyone you would want in a game studio for an MMO that he hopes will be Beta in 3 months.

Sifting through that kinda garbage has to be getting harder and harder for people.
 
People aren't trusting random people's ability to make a game budget before they even start anymore. Well, not as much, at least.
 
It'll boost back up when more of the high profile games are released and maybe the same devs that Kickstarted will do so again, but yeah it definitely couldn't keep up the same momentum forever, especially with those flops. (Another reason to dislike the Yogcast crew)
 
It was inevitable. we've already reached the point of saturation and bigger-name studios with well-known devs only makes it more difficult for no-names to get the support they need
 
Grief.exe said:
Scams are actually the vast minority, but they tend to get high-profile media coverage. Meanwhile, one of the potential GOTY candidates, Divinity: OS, barely gets any media coverage at all.
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The media is talking about it, if you follow people who write - they are all over the game.
 
ebullientprism said:
I wonder if overcrowding is also turning people away.

If anyone hasnt yet, check out some of the lesser/zero funded projects. People with no development experience, no gameplay, no concept art, nothing to show are asking for 70k+. There are people who will tell you in the pitch video with a straight face that they will be "hiring people" to make the game for them. Some guy apparently wanted like 100k to hire everyone you would want in a game studio for an MMO that he hopes will be Beta in 3 months.

Sifting through that kinda garbage has to be getting harder and harder for people.
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Resupurae did a lot of sketchy ones that are just bad. Funny thing is they didn't have to go digging to find bad Kickstarters.
 
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