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[RedSwirl]

Man, on the topic of dedicated handhelds dying, my own personal wish is for x86 handhelds to eventually become a thing and sort of revive dedicated handhelds by essentially becoming portable PCs for low-end games. I'm sure either now or within a couple years you could just run the PC version of something like Half-Life 2 on a portable device. We've already got Surface tablets running PC Skyrim at playable framerates.

I absolutely agree with this, especially now that the PS4 and Xbox One have good architectures for this. The industry switching to hardware upgrades every 4 or 5 years would probably help a lot, and it even seems to be the direction Nintendo is going as well. A PS4.1 and Xbox One.1 released in about 2018 with specs about as strong as possible for $400 but still just being an upgrade would be pretty great, new games would look and run better on the new hardware but also work on the old hardware(basically getting rid of the idea of cross gen games) and some games would be exclusive to the new hardware while some big old games would receive updates to look a little better and/or run a little better on the new hardware and they could slowly phase out the old hardware over a couple of years. It would also be nice to not have to worry about backwards compatibility or "losing" your library of games as you jump generations.

I kind of expect Sony and Microsoft to do this in practice, but I also sort of expect Sony to still call it the PS5. 2018 or so would be enough time for a complete cosmetic revision while upgrading the architecture and keeping the entire OS and software library. You still have "PS5 games" defining the new console, but 100% of PS4 games are backwards compatible. It would essentially be like the PS1-to-PS2 transition except Sony also maintains the same OS. Or they could just drop the numbers from the games themselves and just start calling them all "PlayStation" games. By that point it would be cool if Sony could get emulation BC going all the way back to the PS1 as well, creating a 25-year game library on one OS.

Actually I'd be surprised if Microsoft didn't further integrate Windows into the next Xbox.

 

[Jimrpg]

This is something I'd agree with as well, PC has seen a resurgence recently and whilst yes, there will be a lot of PC exclusives from A/AA developers a lot will also come to console thanks to initiatives from Sony/MS,



No way, once every year is overkill and would not work at all.

There is no need to change the standard 5 year console cycle (maybe slightly shorter) but it's more about the ecosystem and having games working across all dedicated hardware with that ecosystem.

How is it overkill? You can still play pretty much every game on the iPhone 5 and its been out for almost 3 years. There's the opportunity for users to upgrade but it wouldn't be mandatory. The developers could also develop for base level hardware, and then add extra tweaks to make it look better on slightly newer hardware. I bet there's plenty of people here who would buy a Playstation 4.1 or 4.2, this could have slightly higher clock speeds on the CPU or GPU, cheaper or better materials and new functions.

I don't think the whole standard 5 year console cycle fits modern consumerism anymore. Apple and other mobile companies are bringing new handsets to the market constantly and cheaply too by continuously reiterating on their designs. They've settled on good fast hardware but not top of the line stuff. Meanwhile the research and dev and the enormous capital cost of doing a console that is meant to be future proof for 5 years means that it invariably gets long in the tooth by the end. We're two years in the cycle and a mid range PC can beat the PS4 pretty handily. Not only that but with such a distinct generation change, Sony, MS and Nintendo can't guarantee, people will move onto their next platform. Really the only way to do it is, again like Apple make sure your purchases carry over at the very least.

 

[ScatheZombie]

Wait, someone that makes a living making games yet is fiercely passionate about the creation of it is a hobbyist? Never heard that creative definition before, sounds like tales from my ass. Out of curiosity what AAA studio do you work for? Oh lemme guess ya can't say

It almost seems like you harbor a bitterness towards the consumer base you create for, or maybe it's the work in general. Why did you get involved with game development initially?

It's interesting that your argument has devolved from whether or not any of the points I've made are valid to wild personal attacks. I'll just take that as I struck a personal nerve and move past it. But for reference, I've worked for Sony, Trion and NCSoft.

To answer your only reasonable question, yes, Tim Schafer, for example, is absolutely a hobbyist at heart. It's one of the key factors in why he struggles to be consistently successful and why he repeatedly fails with publisher relations. I'm not sure why that's such a contention point. Why is 'hobbyist' such a bad word? I don't put any negative connotation to it. The industry needs hobbyists. My argument was that you can't expect hobbyist ideology from a sector of the industry that is overwhelmingly professionally-minded. If you'd prefer we use different labels, sure, go for it. Call them apples and oranges. Or flamingos and unicorns. I don't really care. Does it really make any difference to the point at hand?

The original argument was about a poster who was sad to see the industry shifting from creative art to profit-chasing products. There never was a shift. The shift is only in your perception of the industry. Anyone who thinks such a shift happened recently was only too naive or ignorant to see the mainstream market for what it really was, and still is. The number of pure, artistic creators is woefully minuscule and pushed out to the fringes of the industry. The creators you think are doing it 'for the art' are selling you a marketing line you want to hear. Maybe some of them believe it, but they're ultimately beholden to a system that couldn't give less of a fuck. It's not a good thing to hear, I'm sure, but it's the way things have worked for decades. If you think any major studio or publisher doesn't operate this way, you are very badly mistaken.

 

[Obliterator]

Well MGSV has already sold over 400k copies on PC and thats for a series that until recently had next to no presence on PC. It seems investing in PC for Konami is paying off

 

[spookyfish]

With all of their decisions lately, it's probably not Konami, either.

 

[wanderingprostheyltite]

It's interesting that your argument has devolved from whether or not any of the points I've made are valid to wild personal attacks. I'll just take that as I struck a personal nerve and move past it. But for reference, I've worked for Sony, Trion and NCSoft.

To answer your only reasonable question, yes, Tim Schafer, for example, is absolutely a hobbyist at heart. It's one of the key factors in why he struggles to be consistently successful and why he repeatedly fails with publisher relations. I'm not sure why that's such a contention point. Why is 'hobbyist' such a bad word? I don't put any negative connotation to it. The industry needs hobbyists. My argument was that you can't expect hobbyist ideology from a sector of the industry that is overwhelmingly professionally-minded. If you'd prefer we use different labels, sure, go for it. Call them apples and oranges. Or flamingos and unicorns. I don't really care. Does it really make any difference to the point at hand?

The original argument was about a poster who was sad to see the industry shifting from creative art to profit-chasing products. There never was a shift. The shift is only in your perception of the industry. Anyone who thinks such a shift happened recently was only too naive or ignorant to see the mainstream market for what it really was, and still is. The number of pure, artistic creators is woefully minuscule and pushed out to the fringes of the industry. The creators you think are doing it 'for the art' are selling you a marketing line you want to hear. Maybe some of them believe it, but they're ultimately beholden to a system that couldn't give less of a fuck. It's not a good thing to hear, I'm sure, but it's the way things have worked for decades. If you think any major studio or publisher doesn't operate this way, you are very badly mistaken.

There it is again, this kind of veiled animosity and combativeness towards a certain sector of the gaming public. Again, what was your primary motivation for entering the game industry? Money seems silly, as a comparable skillset would be more lucrative in other, and more stable fields of IT.

I take issue with hobbyist because it denotes an almost casual approach to the work or not having as vested a commitment to it, and it seems like it's anything but with people like Schafer. Again, you come off as bitter from your experiences in the industry, like you're trying to take it out on us poor ignant gamers that don't know better about the harsh realities of the almighty dollar when it seems more a case that you're unsatisfied working for the machine you're a part of.

 

[ScatheZombie]

There it is again, this kind of veiled animosity and combativeness towards a certain sector of the gaming public. Again, what was your primary motivation for entering the game industry? Money seems silly, as a comparable skillset would be more lucrative in other, and more stable fields of IT.

I take issue with hobbyist because it denotes an almost casual approach to the work or not having as vested a commitment to it, and it seems like it's anything but with people like Schafer. Again, you come off as bitter from your experiences in the industry, like you're trying to take it out on us poor ignant gamers that don't know better about the harsh realities of the almighty dollar when it seems more a case that you're unsatisfied working for the machine you're a part of.

I see. I don't look at a hobbyist that way at all. They are generally the most dedicated and committed people in the entire industry. Almost to their own fault.

Hobbyists are people who would do this even if they weren't getting paid. A professional is someone who does it, specifically, to make money. If they weren't getting paid, they might still make games in their spare time but they wouldn't be the same they're making within the industry right now. The AAA industry is probably 98% professional and 2% hobbyist, using that context, especially in any positions of authority and decision making.

I should also clarify that we aren't talking about the Tim Schafer's or independent developers or hobbyists of the gaming world. We're talking about Konami, a multi-national, multi-million dollar corporate publisher. You can't ascribe the traits of one to the other.

 

[wanderingprostheyltite]

I see. I don't look at a hobbyist that way at all. They are generally the most dedicated and committed people in the entire industry. Almost to their own fault.

Hobbyists are people who would do this even if they weren't getting paid. A professional is someone who does it, specifically, to make money. If they weren't getting paid, they might still make games in their spare time but they wouldn't be the same they're making within the industry right now. The AAA industry is probably 98% professional and 2% hobbyist, using that context, especially in any positions of authority and decision making.

Interesting, I guess it's an industry use of the term I've never been exposed to before now. It still strikes me as odd though that there's a correlation between hobbyist and the producer types like Levine, those making the shots as you said. I'd think you'd lump the pre-production crew in that category as well, those making the concept designs, level layouts, etc. Seems kind of diminishing to all the other creative roles even if the broader structure is dictated by a select few, unless we're talking grunt-like asset creation roles.

 

[maniac-kun]

The idea of evolutionary consoles is sensible at this point (if technically feasible).

iPad success is built on it, where the old apps all carry over for the most part.

When PS2/Wii generations respectively ended, the two platforms went from 150/100 million users in 7/5 years down to zero, and only grew to around 80/15 after 7/3 years.

A PS4.1 would have the benefit of 50m+ users already established, and in 2020 it would be 100m+, in 2025 150m+ etc etc. Growth wouldn't be so high as in launch year, but an established platform with upwards of 200 million users would be a fantastic environment for experimental games, maybe even a return of B-tier a la PS2 days.

There would also be organic turnover where PS4.1 owners upgrade to PS4.5 in 2020, and it would always be ongoing.

I wonder if NX is going down this route with the OS comments.

The current console makers are stuck in the old way of doing things. Its a stupid concept to reset the user base every 5-7 years.

 

[The Technomancer]

I don't...disagree with them? I think. I've had some similar thoughts for a while. I think PS4 sales are lulling people into a sense of security, but I think next generation is going to be rough to consoles across the board. I mean, TV boxes will remain a thing, but I think the business model everyone is used to is going to get completely upheaved.

 

[The Technomancer]

Because console sales aren't as good anymore, despite there being a huge presence in the field we are going to completely stop making games for consoles being based on these graphs it's been lower than other years.


... Yeah.

Konami exiting the console space was never a particularly bad business move. Yes, we lost a lot of IPs that a lot of people, myself included, care about, but I wouldn't particularly begrudge them that. My problem with them is solely that they were such huge dicks about it

 

[Spyder_Monkey]

I don't think consoles (especially the old way) will go way anytime soon. They still fulfill a need I don't think can ever truly be replaced by either consoles for PCs.

 

[ScatheZombie]

Interesting, I guess it's an industry use of the term I've never been exposed to before now. It still strikes me as odd though that there's a correlation between hobbyist and the producer types like Levine, those making the shots as you said. I'd think you'd lump the pre-production crew in that category as well, those making the concept designs, level layouts, etc. Seems kind of diminishing to all the other creative roles even if the broader structure is dictated by a select few, unless we're talking grunt-like asset creation roles.

It absolutely is. It's one of the big reasons the burn out rate for an average AAA developer is about 5 years. Most people come into the industry creative minded and then end up a cog in the machine that requires you do as your told. And as you are told has been dictated by a suit who looked over some market research documents and focus group testing panels. On a team of 200+, maybe a handful of high-ranking developers make any real impactful decisions. (I have been at both ends of this spectrum.) And those decisions are (almost) always weighed heavily by the drivers of revenue-generation, retention, and marketability.

You are honestly correct that I have a lot of frustration about how the system works, and how gamers, for the most part, are ignorant to how it works. I've had highly performing systems (from our internal metrics) get cut because the design spec didn't include specific monetization plans or wasn't a highly marketable 'back of the box' feature that could be easily spun into a marketing blurb. It happens constantly, across every place I've worked at, and every place my developers friends have worked at.

Very quickly, the most artistic hobbyist is beaten down until the words 'I'm just doing this for the paycheck' escape their lips. And it's usually at that point they either attempt to transition into another area of development - mobile, independent, etc. - or simply leave the industry entirely for a job that is 'just a paycheck' but doesn't have all the negative added baggage that comes from the games industry - crunch, relatively low pay, hit-or-miss benefits, etc. And that's how AAA development has operated for as long as I can remember.

 

[wanderingprostheyltite]

It absolutely is. It's one of the big reasons the burn out rate for an average AAA developer is about 5 years. Most people come into the industry creative minded and then end up a cog in the machine that requires you do as your told. And as you are told has been dictated by a suit who looked over some market research documents and focus group testing panels. On a team of 200+, maybe a handful of high-ranking developers make any real impactful decisions. (I have been at both ends of this spectrum.) And those decisions are (almost) always weighed heavily by the drivers of revenue-generation, retention, and marketability.

You are honestly correct that I have a lot of frustration about how the system works, and how gamers, for the most part, are ignorant to how it works. I've had highly performing systems (from our internal metrics) get cut because the design spec didn't include specific monetization plans or wasn't a highly marketable 'back of the box' feature that could be easily spun into a marketing blurb. It happens constantly, across every place I've worked at, and every place my developers friends have worked at.

Very quickly, the most artistic hobbyist is beaten down until the words 'I'm just doing this for the paycheck' escape their lips. And it's usually at that point they either attempt to transition into another area of development - mobile, independent, etc. - or simply leave the industry entirely for a job that is 'just a paycheck' but doesn't have all the negative added baggage that comes from the games industry - crunch, relatively low pay, hit-or-miss benefits, etc. And that's how AAA development has operated for as long as I can remember.

I'd read plenty of burn out stories before but yeah, sounds like kind of a depressing field to be a part of unless you happen to strike gold and get to one of those coveted creative/producing positions, or become an anomaly as a successful "indie" dev, which I realize is a statistical lottery. Apologies for the frustration, all too often as a consumer of a hobby (heh) that's been a part of life forever you want to imagine the creators as being part of some sort of idyllic toyshop whistling happy tunes to complement the good experiences you have with said toys, but yeah it really is a labor force at the end of the day :|

 

[flattie]

I do agree that consoles should be looking to build a persistent platform that carries your library over regardless of the machine; something between a PC and a traditional console.

Shorter, sharper hardware cycles will help keep consoles from falling too far behind, and allow people to not have to worry about losing their game libraries.

Not only do I agree with this sentiment, but I fully expect it to become a reality.

 

[Steroyd]

In order to conquer on Mobile, Konami believe they will need ambition and creativity as well as a social community begind them.

Well then they're completely fucked in every regard.

 

[PHOENIXZERO]

Consoles going in that direction I thought has been kind of known since like 2010 or 2009 and very obvious since the first rumors came out about the next XBox and PS4 being x86 based. *shrug*

It's also a shame that large publishers like Square-Enix, Konami or Capcom don't want to make good smaller budget DD only games that can be released on consoles, handhelds and PC, shit like that new Breath of Fire is a travesty. Instead it's some mobile bullshit where they smell the money not so dissimilar to what they did when certain western games started taking off though I guess their home market is much, much more receptive.

The mobile space is like the absolute worst of Atari on steroids. The only thing saving it is the games being sold for peanuts and maybe customer rating systems as long as they're not flooded with BS ratings/reviews.

 

[mrpeabody]

A lot of powerful and uncomfortable truths.

The bright future predicted for PC in Asia was a surprise at first. But if the model is Kancolle and Dota, rather than traditional AAA, it makes sense.

Consoles becoming "evolutionary" (retaining APIs and compatibility across generations) would be wonderful. But to truly shorten the console cycle and make cross-gen the norm is an enormous economic and ecosystem challenge. How do you get there without losing the console benefits of specific hardware and bare-metal power? How do you make it viable for developers? It's hard to visualize.

Mobile is already highly oversaturated and (imo) more winner-take-all than traditional channels. A very scary market to enter. A Newzoo study from earlier this year found that you have to be in the top 100 iOS apps to turn a profit (link).

Hard to see how reusing PS3/X360 art assets on mobile will work, unless they're porting existing titles. On the other hand, familiar IPs like Metal Gear and Silent Hill are a big asset in getting noticed on the app store.

I wish we had a higher quality version of this image. What's that separate graph there on the right?

 

[Macrotus]

I'm not sure if this has been mentioned somewhere in this thread,
but Konami's Tokyo Game Show line up is pretty....meh..


http://www.konami.jp/tgs/title.html

[Consoles]
Metal Gear Solid V TPP (FOB Online/Metal Gear Online)
Winning Eleven 2016

[Mobile Games]
Winning Eleven Club Manager
Jikkyo Powerful Pro Baseball

[Partner Title]
Tokyo Zanado

Thats it....

 

[Sorc3r3r]

Mobile riscks underlined by the graphs are huge, already at work and getting bigger as more pubs try to enter in the mobile space.
There is a lot of money there but seems to me a modern gold rush.

Then the strategy to evade those riscks seems pretty poor, of a mobile mgs i couldn't care less, I've strong feeling that a console gamer in general will not bite, whatever franchise is used, to the mobile ecosystem.
It's another way of fruition of the media a way that goes over the games themselves in my opinion.

 

[RetroDLC]

People who are interested in how the management and investment of game development works, read the main post many times over. This is as raw and specific you'll see a publisher ever reveal how they work and make business decisions.

What the games industry needs is a Christopher Nolan - a known creative director who will flesh out the entirety of a project, pitch it perfectly to investors and complete it with no problems, while possibly even coming under budget. The evolution of game engines has reduced the amount of investment a project needs to make into tech, but the advancement of graphical quality and gameplay complexity has ramped up the cost of content creation and the need for worthy programmers who can implement and perfect gameplay quickly.

 

[Dio]

I'm not sure if this has been mentioned somewhere in this thread,
but Konami's Tokyo Game Show line up is pretty....meh..


http://www.konami.jp/tgs/title.html

[Consoles]
Metal Gear Solid V TPP (FOB Online/Metal Gear Online)
Winning Eleven 2016

[Mobile Games]
Winning Eleven Club Manager
Jikkyo Powerful Pro Baseball

[Partner Title]
Tokyo Zanado

Thats it....

And Tokyo Xanadu has nothing to do with Konami, Falcom is just sharing a booth with them at TGS.

 

[Nordicus]

Konami notes this growth in Mobile and says that it is a great move as Mobile is very important and already more and more traditional gaming companies are moving into mobile where already there are 250+ new games being released each day on the app stores. Whilst not all publishers/companies are moving to mobile, quite a lot are. However there are some downsides to this as well, in particular two risks. He calls these risks a red ocean and a black hole. Rather than type out the below I'll let you guys read through the two risks that can affect companies moving into mobile gaming.

I am glad there is some acknowledgment that Konami won't be the only one trying to rush to this gold mine, and they might eventually find themselves trying to make profit in an environment that's just as competitive and cut-throat, if not more so due to reliance on one lucky hit here and there making up for dozens of inevitable duds.

The mobile red ocean/black hole was interesting. However that strategy of reusing 360/PS3 assets might be good for them in the short term but won't provide for something that is sustainable in the long term. It will also only redden the ocean and accelerate the rise in dev costs on mobile for everyone. After a few years when users start getting bored and want something new, the black hole may well open up.

Overall the presentation says to me that Konami is out of ideas, and although there are more options than ever in terms of gaming platforms the whole gaming landscape is one big red ocean. User expectations grow with time and so development costs on every platform go up, however with massmarket smart devices with digital games user expectations of price go down.

My thoughts exactly.

There's no way the competition will keep making small budget games forever, and if Konami will start reusing console assets, they'll accelerate the push until they find themselves with much bigger competition and no assets to reuse

 

[Sumio Mondo]

It's interesting seeing how different another Japanese company like Square-Enix who are diving right in to AAA this gen with loads and loads of game vs. Konami's/SEGA's massive scaling back of AAA games. Will be interesting to contrast who is the more successful when all is said and done.

 

[BocoDragon]

It's interesting seeing how different another Japanese company like Square-Enix who are diving right in to AAA this gen with loads and loads of game vs. Konami's/SEGA's massive scaling back of AAA games. Will be interesting to contrast who is the more successful when all is said and done.

Konami might continue to survive and be profitable as a business. But they have torpedoed any opportunities to build themselves up as an entertainment brand.

Square Enix is tomorrow's Marvel, in that they will have cultivated a fanbase for years to come that might prove to be massively lucrative someday.

 

[mieumieu]

It's interesting seeing how different another Japanese company like Square-Enix who are diving right in to AAA this gen with loads and loads of game vs. Konami's/SEGA's massive scaling back of AAA games. Will be interesting to contrast who is the more successful when all is said and done.

Square-Enix has more mobile games in operation and in development than Konami could imagine, though. SQEX is a contents company first and foremost, whether it is games (console, mobile, MMO), publishing, etc. while Konami has sports clubs and gambling.

 

[FinalxxSin]

$60 games with microtransactions is such a terrible model. I'm sure it's successful for Konami but it screws consumers over so badly.

I don't mind microtransactions, but only in budget priced or F2P games.

I know games now and these days take a lot more time to create, so I'd rather have the base price be increased than to have people get charged for DLC in most cases. That's just me though.

 

[chromatic9]

Not sure the big budget game model can transfer to PC completely or even to a large extent. If the consoles do phase out then PC will be like a last bastion for the traditional large screen games, they will be kept alive somewhat. Witcher 2 and 3 are good examples of without and with console. Certainly this model can survive and the oldies carry it on.

I see much more interesting things taking shape in just 10 years time, with younger generations and how they consume the media. VR/AR and how this quickly moves.

PC can facilitate lots of things. I have seen for years that open PC can be the future and can come in many forms but lets say we have a big budget VR wave the masses want then I can also see Samsung Sony or whoever offering dedicated hardware and streaming for more relaxing software.

 

[RealityCheque]

That's a lot of chart porn.

Either way, fuck off Konami.

 

[Steroyd]

I know games now and these days take a lot more time to create, so I'd rather have the base price be increased than to have people get charged for DLC in most cases. That's just me though.

The issue is that the ones generally complaining about the cost of development, or are doing gross implementations of DLC and Microtransactions are the ones whose games sell in the millions.

There are a lot of distribution models these days, that even lower-than-AAA-tier can thrive.

 

[Durante]

I think that it's interesting that their idea for making consoles F2P-viable is pretty much turning them even more into (closed) PCs.

 

[John Kowalski]

Marketing will ALWAYS win out over reputation.

I doubt a large majority of the people who bought MGSV know or care who Kojima is. When a game gets reviews this high and a marketing campaign like this a lot of people will jump in regardless of the lack of previous experience or knowledge (see: TW3).

Not always. Not that I think their brand is soiled because the Lord knows that doesn't happen in this industry (thanks gamers, pfff) but once in a while companies have to do real drastic stuff to clean their names, like get out of the market for some years or even change their names. And that's assuming it will work, because sometimes it doesn't!

 

[1.21Gigawatts]

I think the mobile market is very different from the console market, and many publishers will learn that the hard way.

The mobile market mainly consists of casual gamers and there are a few things casuals do differently than the core market on console.
1. They don't care for franchises. You think your known IP will take of based on name recognition or a sequel to a successful title will be successful, too? Think again.
2. You think your brand is worth anything in the mobile market? You think because you're Nintendo or Konami people will try your stuff? No...
The people who know your brand don't care for touchscreen experiences, at least not in connection with your brand and your IP.
Mario? Great! Mario without buttons? Fuck off!

In my opinion the mobile market is extremly hard. Of course there is a huge install base and small games that are good can probably make money, but I think these big publishers are after the money games like Candy Crush and Clash Of Clans make, but I am pretty certain that you can't plan these kinds of hits.
I would be very surprised if any big publishers lands a hit like that.



Other than that I agree that handshelds are dead, VR is high risc and AR is still many years off, I could see VR only becoming mainstream in the second or third gen when eye tracking and foveated rendering is in.
I also agree that the console market isn't exactly a growing market anymore.

 

[ZhugeEX]

A lot of powerful and uncomfortable truths.

The bright future predicted for PC in Asia was a surprise at first. But if the model is Kancolle and Dota, rather than traditional AAA, it makes sense.

Consoles becoming "evolutionary" (retaining APIs and compatibility across generations) would be wonderful. But to truly shorten the console cycle and make cross-gen the norm is an enormous economic and ecosystem challenge. How do you get there without losing the console benefits of specific hardware and bare-metal power? How do you make it viable for developers? It's hard to visualize.

Mobile is already highly oversaturated and (imo) more winner-take-all than traditional channels. A very scary market to enter. A Newzoo study from earlier this year found that you have to be in the top 100 iOS apps to turn a profit (link).

Hard to see how reusing PS3/X360 art assets on mobile will work, unless they're porting existing titles. On the other hand, familiar IPs like Metal Gear and Silent Hill are a big asset in getting noticed on the app store.

I wish we had a higher quality version of this image. What's that separate graph there on the right?

Here you go-

 

[Klart]

Consoles will change, some day they won't even play discs (Yeah that sucks), maybe they'll have upgradeable parts

SEGA were such visionaries with the 32X & SEGA CD.

 

[Iced Arcade]

Because Konami makes a whole fucking lot more money via gambling.

Every casino I go to is 90% Konami pachislots.

I can vouch for this. I work in a casino and we have a shit ton of konami slots.

 

[EGM1966]

Great post OP. No surprises in any of this really. PC and mobile have shown better growth for a while and it was obvious only the hardcore Nintendo handheld fans and exclusive IP have enabled them to carve a niche vs mobile devices.

Understanding get the Wii combined with split market strength of PS3/360 caused an unusual spike in home console market growth you see that home consoles are viable but not growing fast. The death of mid-tier (although I think there's signs it might return) and focus on AAA or smaller titles on console hasn't helped home console as a play to grow software and new IP either although I think this is improving and may improve home consoles as a place to put mid tier games alongside PC.

 

[Skinpop]

I see. I don't look at a hobbyist that way at all. They are generally the most dedicated and committed people in the entire industry. Almost to their own fault.

Hobbyists are people who would do this even if they weren't getting paid. A professional is someone who does it, specifically, to make money. If they weren't getting paid, they might still make games in their spare time but they wouldn't be the same they're making within the industry right now. The AAA industry is probably 98% professional and 2% hobbyist, using that context, especially in any positions of authority and decision making.

ins't a hobbyist by definition a professional as soon as he makes a living doing his hobby? you seem to have an argument going that unless money is prioritized above everything else, you are a hobbyist and I can't agree with that.

 

[ZhugeEX]

How is it overkill? You can still play pretty much every game on the iPhone 5 and its been out for almost 3 years. There's the opportunity for users to upgrade but it wouldn't be mandatory. The developers could also develop for base level hardware, and then add extra tweaks to make it look better on slightly newer hardware. I bet there's plenty of people here who would buy a Playstation 4.1 or 4.2, this could have slightly higher clock speeds on the CPU or GPU, cheaper or better materials and new functions.

Because it would be impossible to pull off and unsustainable.

 

[GlamFM]

Quality thread. Thanks OP, very insightful.

 

[Sakujou]

wow, what kind of inside information.

konami is in a weird transitional position. i still havent read any information about kojima, what he thinks about this...
would he be even allowed to talk about this?

i just think, its time to move on.

i hated the way kojima handled the successors of mgs games.

this is the last game
this is the last game
this is the final game
what the fuck, wie have been hearing this since mgs3.

i dont like games which have too many successors which also do have a connection.

on the other hand, seeing annual games/mobile games/f2p/endless runners makes me cringe too

 

[Quasar]

How is it overkill? You can still play pretty much every game on the iPhone 5 and its been out for almost 3 years. There's the opportunity for users to upgrade but it wouldn't be mandatory. The developers could also develop for base level hardware, and then add extra tweaks to make it look better on slightly newer hardware. I bet there's plenty of people here who would buy a Playstation 4.1 or 4.2, this could have slightly higher clock speeds on the CPU or GPU, cheaper or better materials and new functions.

I imagine I would upgrade just to get say UHD bluray support, especially if the system was made quieter.

 

[ScatheZombie]

ins't a hobbyist by definition a professional as soon as he makes a living doing his hobby? you seem to have an argument going that unless money is prioritized above everything else, you are a hobbyist and I can't agree with that.

No. I may have a wildly different perspective because I also have my feet dipped in the pool of board game development and tabletop miniatures. In that area, the line between the hobbyist and the professional is exactly as I describe. "Making money" is an unclear misnomer in deciding in which camp you fall into. A hobbyist is making something they are passionate (the ugliest word in the industry) about and hoping that someone likes it enough to pay them. A professional is tailoring a product for a market. In tabletop miniatures, for example, hobbyists are people who sculpt or paint minis in ways that they want, without any distinct or expressed consideration for the end user. They're doing it for themselves, first and foremost, because they love doing it. A professional is either looking at the market themselves and determining an under-served audience and targeting them with a specific product OR taking orders for a specific product type from a major publishing house or distributor with the expressed goal of marketing and selling their product to that target audience.

It's a difference of purpose and mindset, not a magical threshold you cross once someone buys the thing you made.

In my opinion.

 

[Akhe]

Me

Konami

Nope...

 

[Kralamoonard]

Am I the only one in here who doesn't want new "upgradeable" consoles to release as early as 2018 with the same architecture etc with improved GPU/CPU's etc or whatnot?

I mean, call me old fashioned, but I'd rather stay with (and am comfortable with) having a 7 year console cycle in 2020, with REALLY new hardware at a good and affordable price. At least then I'll have time to finish my PS3/4 games

Nah, but seriously, I mean I could see how people favour the first option, especially if it is backwards compatible, but idk, I feel like it'd be too soon, rushed and I wouldn't have fully enjoyed the generation.

 

[Neoxon]

Man, on the topic of dedicated handhelds dying, my own personal wish is for x86 handhelds to eventually become a thing and sort of revive dedicated handhelds by essentially becoming portable PCs for low-end games. I'm sure either now or within a couple years you could just run the PC version of something like Half-Life 2 on a portable device. We've already got Surface tablets running PC Skyrim at playable framerates.

But we aren't at that stage, yet. The only ones who are in any position to continue with handhelds is Nintendo, & they're most likely going to be using ARM for both the NX Console & the NX Handheld since ARM is a proven architecture for handheld systems.

I kind of expect Sony and Microsoft to do this in practice, but I also sort of expect Sony to still call it the PS5. 2018 or so would be enough time for a complete cosmetic revision while upgrading the architecture and keeping the entire OS and software library. You still have "PS5 games" defining the new console, but 100% of PS4 games are backwards compatible. It would essentially be like the PS1-to-PS2 transition except Sony also maintains the same OS. Or they could just drop the numbers from the games themselves and just start calling them all "PlayStation" games. By that point it would be cool if Sony could get emulation BC going all the way back to the PS1 as well, creating a 25-year game library on one OS.

Actually I'd be surprised if Microsoft didn't further integrate Windows into the next Xbox.

Actually, all signs point to Nintendo being the first to do the shared OS thing with all of their consoles & handhelds.

Am I the only one in here who doesn't want new "upgradeable" consoles to release as early as 2018 with the same architecture etc with improved GPU/CPU's etc or whatnot?

I mean, call me old fashioned, but I'd rather stay with (and am comfortable with) having a 7 year console cycle in 2020, with REALLY new hardware at a good and affordable price. At least then I'll have time to finish my PS3/4 games

Nah, but seriously, I mean I could see how people favour the first option, especially if it is backwards compatible, but idk, I feel like it'd be too soon, rushed and I wouldn't have fully enjoyed the generation.

You'll most likely get a taste of upgradable consoles with the NX Platform next year. By this I mean new hardware upgrades for both Nintendo's consoles & handhelds that share pretty much all of their software from before (think iPhone upgrades from 5-5S-6-6S-etc., just not as frequently).

 

[Momentary]

I agree with almost everything they said. Especially about consoles needing to stop being close ended hardware. They need to focus more on the OS/digital store front aside of things. MS has already taken the first step into that direction and it seems Nintendo might be doing the same with NX. We just have to see how this pans out.

 

[faridmon]

I basically agree with everything thing Konami said, especially the console being more "evolutionary" part.

Yea, they actually makes sense, and they are upfront about it. Unlike many other companies who dances around the issue.

Me

Konami

Nope...

Have you actually read the OP? These type of posts is not helpful at all.

We know you hate Konami, boohoo!

 

[Suzushiiro]

Konami exiting the console space was never a particularly bad business move. Yes, we lost a lot of IPs that a lot of people, myself included, care about, but I wouldn't particularly begrudge them that. My problem with them is solely that they were such huge dicks about it

Yeah, it's like a divorce- it would be one thing if they just said "this isn't working for us anymore" and parted with us (the audience for $60 console games) on amicable terms, figuring out a fair way to handle custody of the kids and how to split the assets. It would be sad for us, but we'd understand and not be too mad about it. But that's not what they did- they burned the fucking house down and took the kids to another country where we'll never see them again.

 

[ZhugeEX]

One thing I've been wanting to post is this chart I made. It shows Konami's best selling franchise, Pro Evolution soccer which has sold 90 million units across all entries. Digital Entertainment is still the biggest source of revenue for Konami but at this point they only have 3 major franchises on offer which are Soccer, Baseball and Metal Gear. With this years Metal Gear they'll have good results for Fiscal 2016 but baseball and Soccer have been slipping into irrelevance very slowly.

Certainly in the traditional digital entertainment space on console it'll be interesting to see what they do with these 3 IP's. At this point I'm not entirely sure what Konami's plan is, I know they said they want to continue with Metal Gear and they'll certainly continue with Pro Evo but I wonder if these will continue to be their only console centric games and if Konami will even bother bringing other IP to console or just stick with these main ones?

Thoughts?