Your read might not have changed, but your read was wrong.
-
Hey, guest user. Hope you're enjoying NeoGAF! Have you considered registering for an account? Come join us and add your take to the daily discourse.
Love Boat 2 [Mafia] |OT| Electric Boogalove
- Thread starter Burbeting
- Start date
hey_monkey
Banned
If you're saying Ouro's scum read had nothing to do with being blocked for you, sure. You knew. But it WAS a piece for us. For me, not the biggest. But it was a piece. Don't go to the far end of the scale here. Strikes as disingenuous and for what?
But does it really? The only way it changes the situation is if you don't believe Sorian's claim and think he's actually a scum hooker.
Long posts...
I actually put time in D3 talking about things and they didn't all come up as Ouro being scum. Here I am talking about voting patterns and how they didn't condemn Ouro as scum. On D2, I looked at the patterns and thought it said Ouro and FEP were collaborating. I then went over it D3 and my conclusion was a third path: that Ouro might have been a useful idiot to the affair.
I came in later to say this:
I think I might have attempted to swerve the votes if we had proof that Ouro was telling the truth. Sorian/Saw had the proof. My train of thought here isn't THAT hard to follow.
Are you talking about me posting his read?
I figured it fitted the conversation at the time. Trigger's activity is very on/off. He'll be gone for long stretches of time and suddenly posts a fair bit in our chat. I figured - seeing her seemingly wasn't active at the point and I liked his reads last night - that I might as well post them.
No?
The thing giving me doubt Ouro was town was partly that weird claim. It didn't make sense for him to be blocked twice which is why I speculated we had a jailor or something.
Since everyone seemed to just not acknowledge it:
I still want to know how claiming changes any of those things I said. We claim and what? KK's broad reads lists suddenly look better and Ouro just being there and not scum hunting is suddenly excused?
Monkey's post aren't even that long.
hey_monkey
Banned
Well, I'll keep this short for you:
You said before that you didn't report out. Now you're saying you did. Why the shift? And why not just explain before? Why the evasion? You can read the thread; you can read my posts.
hey_monkey
Banned
So here's the thing about this Darryl/Sorian situation:
It's a bad faith argument to say the roleblock veracity was either the ONLY reason to go ahead and lynch OK and it's bad faith to say it didn't have any bearing AT ALL. Working from these extremes isn't going to get us anywhere but into another of the back-and-forth shouting matches that have kind of dominated this game. Devil's in the details, guys.
But I'm out for a bit; shout all you want. For now:
Vote: Trigger
It's a bad faith argument to say the roleblock veracity was either the ONLY reason to go ahead and lynch OK and it's bad faith to say it didn't have any bearing AT ALL. Working from these extremes isn't going to get us anywhere but into another of the back-and-forth shouting matches that have kind of dominated this game. Devil's in the details, guys.
But I'm out for a bit; shout all you want. For now:
Vote: Trigger
The thing giving me doubt about Ouro being Town was his complete lack of doing anything until his ass was on the line so perhaps my perception is skewed. Finding out a town duo with no extra insight thought Ouro was scummy enough to block him twice wouldn't suddenly make me think "ah yes, Ouro is town how could I not see it before" lol
I don't understand what you're saying..
When did I say I didn't report out?
I didn't read your post so I didn't respond. It's faster to skim longer posts, especially when they're mostly summarizing stuff.
I see what you're talking about but I don't even understand what your intentions are here. I'm still confused. My points are still valid. You were pushing activity as a scum tell which is low-hanging fruit that feels desperate at this point. Everything I've said still stands. I never accused you of bandwagoning per se. Like, my scum read on you wasn't "Sorian is bandwagoning!". I said that you were pushing a lynch on a basis of low activity, which is true. I was just on my phone and I looked up to the posts. Found the one where you mentioned activity. Followed the trail of thought. Saw the activity angle stemmed from hey_monkey. I didn't say your reads were bandwagoning hey_monkey, just your angle of low activity. That honestly makes it worse.
A wise player once said:
"Lynch all the scummy people and you'll end up with only scum left"
So you're saying lynching kitsune was a mistake?🤔
I get what you mean, but I feel like there's a difference between someone who's playstyle is just naturally erratic and feels scummy as opposed to someone that was purposefully being dodgy for two day phases.
It's snarky, but I mean it. Answering for AB there made it look like you were a teammate. I'm asking AB stuff because I'm trying to read him.
Ask yourself if they're trying to look townie. Most scum will try. Townies just DGAF.
I wasn't 100% sold Ouro wasn't scum (though I got more sure near the end, those last few were quite pure), but he had done enough townie stuff (like genuinely townie, not easily copied) for me to read him as town with the FEP interaction bring the main one.
I feel like that only holds up for newer players though. There are plenty of veteran players that will not bother to try and look Town regardless or will switch up their playstyle just for the sake of it.
I guess. I can't remember coming across that, but I might have.
But I digress, why are you voting Crimson and Sophia? I agree we probably have scum voting kitsune, but their votes were pretty decisive. They've also put down decent effort imo.
In what manner would you say they were decisive? While they did mention concerns about kitsune at earlier points neither made much noise with their votes, nor did they actively push for a kit lynch. Then D3 they very much just sat on the sidelines for the most part not really engaging. It feels to me like they made their presence felt early on and have been coasting off of that since. Combine that with the likelihood of a bus on kitsune plus thinking at least one scum was probably on the Orb lynch and the result is three days of voting activity that doesn't make me feel great combined with their actual play since the mid point of D2 being underwhelming. Like I said, I don't think they're scum with Kark/Xbro and my argument fits them just about as well. I just lean more towards Crimson/Sophia at this point.
I wish it was my plan, lol
Sorry for being unclear. They were decisive because kitsune barely lead for most of the day and those two votes didn't move. If they had voted elsewhere that could've saved kitsune.
I don't believe Crimson was available again that day and Sophia made a point of saying she was voting with her partner and that his suspicions were a key reason why. Without Crimson being available it's hard to say one way or the other how convinced they were at the time.
Who would you say is the scum on that lynch if not them?
Me
I'm not really sure actually. I also think it's possible only townies voted for them.
Sure, it's possible. Lots of things are possible. I'm just trying to follow up on what seem like the most likely scenarios.
starsketch & absolutbro (3)
natiko
franconp
crimsonfist
nomadic sparks
rac & acohrs (1)
sawneeks
trigger & ty4on (1)
sorian
hey_monkey
natiko & nomadic sparks (1)
nin1000
darryl & nin1000 (1)
sorian
nomadic sparks
sawneeks & sorian (2)
acohrs
darryl
crimsonfist & sophia (1)
natiko
franconp
crimsonfist
nomadic sparks
rac & acohrs (1)
sawneeks
trigger & ty4on (1)
hey_monkey
natiko & nomadic sparks (1)
nin1000
darryl & nin1000 (1)
sorian
sawneeks & sorian (2)
acohrs
darryl
crimsonfist & sophia (1)
natiko
Vote: Starsketch
Sorry, I was off to take a nap to see if I could sleep away some of the sickness so I typed that out real quick. I understand that it formed a small piece of other people's reads. Here's the thing though, no one in particular cited the roleblock as their main reason for lynching Ouro, or even a top reason, it was always an extra though. I told you all countless times to consider the angle of a town hooker and you all snapped at me each time. The talk of "why would they block the same person twice" was never much of a knock on Ouro but more on the eventual finding of the roleblocker.
Could you accuse me of waiting so that I didn't distract from the Ouro lynch? Probably, I had a solid read there and I saw no reason to stick my head out when he was already struggling to spin it around anywhere. You got the claim today because I was left with a much bigger list of suspects now and the cards needed to be on the table to make sense.
That's the issue though, well a lot of issues. First off, pretending that low activity is a low hanging fruit and thus isn't going to get us to our goal is disingenuous. You've been scum reading me all game and really, if I do anything, you'd probably spin it to be bad. The other bigger issue here is that you found a post you didn't like. Looked back for the context and then stopped when you had enough to spin it negatively. Nevermind that there was still more context and you find that the low activity is a smaller part of a bigger issue.
I feel like the Star lynch is a shot in the dark. I honestly do. There could be scum behind that door but it's more likely to be town (on the basis of pure numbers which is an argument I hate but when there is nothing to read it's kind of true). What do we even gain if it's wrong?
The same as with any other lynch?
What lynch would actually gives us info if it's a mislynch?
It's not my preferred choice either. That being said it does have the positive note of weeding out a non-entity that is at best a null. Who do you lean scum on at this point? I feel like I only know nin/darryl are on your list but no others (could just be faulty memory).
Your an odd one to come at this angle. Isn't your whole theory that I'm scum protecting my last teammate Star? If you're wrong on either of us, it blows that whole guess up. But you're actually the only one I really have an answer for. Everyone else just seems like they want to check Star. If she is town then that sucks, back to the drawing board, nothing gained or lost and similarly, if she flips scum, I'd beat people would only look at today's interactions and that's it. Her team has been a nonentity.
My list is nin/Darryl, Ty/Trigger, and Kark/Xbro. Personally, I'm not as sold on Kark and Xbro because I still like Xbro's interactions but Kark drags it down and it's clear that Xbro's vote on kitsune was shit and well within the range of a bus. I know you are looking for my opinion on Sophia and Crimson and, I'm not sure. They built up a lot of good will day 1 with me and I think they handled kitsune perfectly from a town perspective but I still see it here and there where Crimson asks questions for the sake of asking, either because it's already been answered or he doesn't end up doing much with the answer and Sophia is definitely letting him take the lead. So, really I don't know. I have them leaning back and forth at the drop of a hat.
That's a lot of words for not answering my question. Let's go again:
You say it's we wouldn't gain info lynching Star so, What lynch would actually gives us info if it's a mislynch?
hey_monkey
Banned
All I'm saying is I think we do need to take the nuanced approach. It felt like in arguing with Darryl you were just removing that aspect and it is part of the discussion and I wanted to pull it back before people started constructing narratives.
I agree. And I see fran there but even with a mislynch we can analyze votes and patterns. Here it gives us nothing except knowing that an unknown is out of the game. Even scum could vote for Star at this point to get townie points to help take down legit town. It would be risky if they're the last, but if it's an experienced scum player, someone with confidence they could get to end game... it's something to consider.
And it may be better to weed now than to weed later. We have several hours yet though and maybe something swingy will happen.
I have some other responses to things coming in a bit.
Literally everyone else, save roc and acohrs. If I'm lynched, suddenly Darrly very much looks like he was trying to fling shit. If monkey and Royal are a town, suddenly people who were hard against the silencer town angle look suspect because scum knows they are town and wants that easy lynch. Natiko and Nomadic as town would bring nin into question. nin and Darryl as town would bring myself into question and a finding both Darryl and I are town would bring into question anyone who sat on the sidelines of the argument.
I'm not sure why this is new to you that town flips also provide new read opportunities. Star doesn't have any of those interactions because she hardly played. Her only interaction I can even think of is the random read on you and how that was the same choice kitsune made which you've already asked me about. I think that was NAI.
Assuming two scum boats are left do you think there's a moderate chance that those three boats house them? Or do you feel one of these boats is scum and from there you would try and re-evaluate to find the third?
One of your leans is Ty/Trigger - do you think they handled the kit lynch in a scummiest manner than Crimson/Sophia then?
I can understand that perspective, it just feels like a frustrating place to lynch because it would be hard to gain much info from the vote barring a counter wagon with movement at day end. Then again half the people aren't voting currently so today feels bad regardless.
The main appeal to a Star lynch really is just removing a null from the game and hoping by chance she's scum. There's no doubt in my mind barring a lynch soon that she will reach lylo. We have two mislynches left and a no lynch. That equates to three night kills barring a successful block. There's no chance Star's group is in that set of three and if lynching Star here feels bad to some lynching her in lylo would only feel worse. My point being for those of you that think a Star lynch is the right choice it kind of feels like now or never, at least to me.
So your logic is that if someone is hardly posting we shouldn't lynch them? You said it yourself she didn't interacted a lot with other players but in one of her only interaction was getting defensive about a post directed for a know scum. That's a valid angle, even if for your is just NAI based on your meta read.
Also we would get the same info of the rest as the rest of the lynch possibilities because, even if she hardly participated in the game, people has been talking about that pair since day 1. We know who is trying to avoid a lynch there, who is jumping on an easy wagon and who is actually suspicious of her.
I would probably re-evaluate after one but I'd be completely unsurprised to find both scum in those 3. As I said above, I think the way Sophia and Crimson handled kitsune seemed very natureal to me. It wasn't "perfect" which I would expect from scum but it was perfect in terms of progression and natural feeling.
Like I said, I'm aware that if we did lynch them that we have the time leading directly to her lynch to read but there is nothing there for the rest of the game. I'm not saying we shouldn't lynch them, I'm saying that it's a random shot in the dark and if town, just allows scum to go on the easy vote. You say that you can see who is actually sheeping and who is actually suspicious but I highly doubt that to be honest.
I ask just due to the votes on the kit lynch. If Ty/Trigger are scum or both the other groups are scum (and super so if Ty/Trigger and either one of the other groups are scum) then a kit lynch could have easily been avoided. Pretty sure of those four all were available close to day end to change votes if they had wanted. Personally Kark/Xbro are the ones that I would pick out of those three. Ty I could see but the early vote makes me doubt it. Nin is the hardest one for me to see just cause it eschewed from what Darryl wanted, prevented a tie, and his attacks on nomad today would seem really short sighted if nin is scum. Maybe nin is just on a whole other level though lol
For me the difference on Sophia/Crimson is there was no way for them to both hop off, Crimson was busy. Also was just curious if your suspicions towards Ty/Trigger were influenced by their voting on kit since Ty voted very early but Trigger voted very late. If Ty hadn't had the early vote I would probably be more in agreement there.
I would probably re-evaluate after one but I'd be completely unsurprised to find both scum in those 3. As I said above, I think the way Sophia and Crimson handled kitsune seemed very natureal to me. It wasn't "perfect" which I would expect from scum but it was perfect in terms of progression and natural feeling.
Like I said, I'm aware that if we did lynch them that we have the time leading directly to her lynch to read but there is nothing there for the rest of the game. I'm not saying we shouldn't lynch them, I'm saying that it's a random shot in the dark and if town, just allows scum to go on the easy vote. You say that you can see who is actually sheeping and who is actually suspicious but I highly doubt that to be honest.
Hah, thanks phone.
But is it worth saving her using all of your resources? That just paints a target on everyone once anyone flips and kitsune didn't look long for this world.
But is it worth saving her using all of your resources? That just paints a target on everyone once anyone flips and kitsune didn't look long for this world.
Is it worth coordinating everyone to move? Definitely not, but outside of Ty most of those votes came late. I definitely think we'll find scum there, just not as certain on finding two boats. Maybe though.
That pair wasn't widely scum read tho. Getting in position for a bus I can see scum reading, but actually bussing from D1 into D2 just seems excessive.
I'm looking a bit more into Crimson and Sophia tho. Don't think Star is the right lynch ATM
If you may, I'd like to see quotes and stuff showing this progression you saw.
I'll do this tonight (real world tonight not night phase), I did just get home but I'm not going to peruse right this second.
Not at all. The point stood alone. You just won't let anything go and you can't stomach anyone reading you as scummy for something you can't control. It's really irritating. These conversations aren't all happening with you as a participant. Me finding you scummy isn't a negotiation. If you're town, it would be helpful if instead of getting antagonistic over criticism, you just explained yourself. We can all work it out for ourselves. My God, you'd save everyone so much time. I would argue this out but Crim had a solid point with letting you guys stay a bit longer.
If this is a scum play it's like you guys are sadists. I swear to God it is like you're mocking me. Everything I call you and your team out for, you come back and call me out for it. It is truly bizarre and pretty amusing tbh
Threadmark
I've been reading this a fair bit. Crimson, Sophia, why the muted response? What did you think of it back then? Anything from your own chat at the time?
I've been reading this a fair bit. Crimson, Sophia, why the muted response? What did you think of it back then? Anything from your own chat at the time?