Yeah, if there's one thing we can be quite certain of it is that both of you are trackers.
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Love Boat [Mafia] |OT| Till Death Do Us Part
- Thread starter Burbeting
- Start date
The wonderful thing is that Karkhead have revealed their power is X-shot while Blawl have revealed it is unlimited. So both, if they're being honest, are compromised.
What? No. Correct me if I'm wrong, but all we have is Blarg claiming that whoever they tracked visited them and Kark claiming that he tracked Blarg, no?
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This is correct
Yes. If either isn't a tracker they have to pull a gambit and risk being caught.
Blawl not a tracker, but a killer targeting Karkhead would have had to guess that they in return targeted them.
Karkhead not a tracker, but a killer targeting Blawl would have had to known that a doctor also targeted them (if they're blocked there should be no action seen by anyone) and had to guess that Blawl targeted them and not the doctor.
I assumed there was a cop, but now that you mention it, there might not be.
Really? I haven't made my intent clear?
> "i'm going to fake a cop claim to get myself killed and save a PR!!"
> lead the lynch on a PR
Do you think he's scum or not?
I don't know. I think he's the person I'm most suspicious of, and if not for Blarg he would be my #1 lynch choice at the moment.
Oh ok, so you are suspicious of him.
All of those posts you quoted talk about bad play, I honestly thought you were pushing for a policy lynch for his D1 claim and other Crimes Against Mafia, but apparently not.
So why are you suspicious of Flux?
This killer/doctor theory involving Kark and Blawl makes little sense. The simplest and most likely explanation is they are both indeed trackers and one of them is scum.
We can guess all day as to what possible scenarios went down last night. But we can do that almost endlessly with other roles as well. That relies heavily on guessing player intentions and also having pretty big coincidences (like Kark or Blawl "guessing" the other tracked them and the doc getting lucky with his or her protect action). While possible, it doesn't seem very likely and we have no reason to believe that any more than anything else we have no evidence for.
Haha thank you.
We can guess all day as to what possible scenarios went down last night. But we can do that almost endlessly with other roles as well. That relies heavily on guessing player intentions and also having pretty big coincidences (like Kark or Blawl "guessing" the other tracked them and the doc getting lucky with his or her protect action). While possible, it doesn't seem very likely and we have no reason to believe that any more than anything else we have no evidence for.
We had fun with this version (made by HarlanRyudo) in the boat chat
Haha thank you.
I don't deny that it is very likely that Karkhead are trackers, but it is by no means certain yet.
Let's not forget that the scum team are an actual team. A cohesive unit. If either of the teams in contention right now are scum, it doesn't mean that they themselves have to be the tracker. Scum team could have another kind of investigative role, which would have then reported their results to the entire team and given them that info to work with.
This is very cool and good.We had fun with this version (made by HarlanRyudo) in the boat chat
Then Blarg or I would have seen a different pair of names
What do you mean? Why?
I know. I didn't mention it because the end result is still two trackers which is equally unlikely.
All of this thinking of Blawl's role claim and reasoning made me less sure he was the obvious choice:
VOTE: Karkador
I might change when I've read more. I'm by no means dead set on Karkhead.
Let's say Blarg is on the Mafia team, but is not actually the Tracker. The real Mafia Tracker is you, Fluxwave, who is passing him information.*
I target Blarg to track him. My result is "Their target last night: Karkador and Zippedpinhead". This means, barring any Switcher/whatever-the-fuck shenanigans, they targeted me to do something.
Meanwhile, Fluxwave tracks me. Your result is "Their target last night: Blargonaut & Kawl_USC"
Great, Karkador has a role and targeted Blarg - except, you also don't know what the nature of my targeting Blarg was about.
So theoretically, Blarg could at this point say "We targeted someone, and they targeted back". That much would be true, under this hypothetical.
...so actually, you're kind of right, but it only looks worse for Team Blarg, lol
* Not an actual claim of anything.
you think karkador is scum tracker, trying to push town in lynching the town tracker
but if blawl flips as town tracker, how do you think kark will explain away this?
For fun: What if they're both scum and this is an unbelievable plan?
best scum team of 2016
This is basically what I'm saying, yes, but I also don't see how this doesn't apply to your team.
Unrelated, but your thought experiment made me think of a setup with a scum, a scum watcher and a town tracker, let's call them S, SW and TT.
TT tracks S and sees that S is targeting them. SW watches S, possibly to catch any role blockers, and sees TT. Now they have the same info in a game with just one tracker.
I mean, either or if Blarg or Kark gets axed we're ditching some sort of scum either tonight or the next day. If we were to get it right and save the current town tracker, they would likely be a prime target for tonight's night phase.
I don't think either of these teams are gonna be around after today and tomorrow. Unless some fuckshit happens.
I don't think either of these teams are gonna be around after today and tomorrow. Unless some fuckshit happens.
Dusk Soldier
Member
I don't quite get this part. Isn't the scum kill normally down by a vote, or are you theorizing that Karkador's team is scum with a separate kill power, other than the regular night kill?
Well, even then, Blawl still targeted you somehow. So either he's a tracker that targeted you back, or he's lying about being a tracker but targeted you with something else.
I can't decide which is worse for them.
No? At least, I'm pretty sure it isn't based on the previous games I've played in. Dunno how it's handled here, but I'd assume there's a specific scum team that carries out the kill, like in the other games.
Maybe this is something Burbeting could officially comment on?
Scum's kill is almost always performed by one scum member and the scum team get's to choose who does it. There's usually no vote, just a concensus made in the scum chat and the player who they agreed upon either PMs the moderator or scum uses the scum chat to tell the moderator what they want to do. The latter (no PM) is a fairly recent rule in place for scum members that for whatever reason can't PM in time for the dead line.
Zippedpinhead
Member
At least, with us, if an alignment cop was to look at us, they would see town...
If this was strict tracker vs tracker you are right, but it's not. It's a tracker vs a tracker who (if investigated by an alignment cop) would show up as scum.
our role PM told us is that our target visited us...
But what if blarg had been swapped, and that person they were swapped with looked at us, and that person visited us... That would ALSO return that result (because all the PM says is "target" not a specific person. So by Blawl saying they looked and we looked back... Could be a lot of different things.
However, Occam's razor leads me to believe the simplest solution is the most likely, we looked at Blawl, Blawl looked at Kark and my team and then we got into this...
Dusk Soldier
Member
I quoted all of my reasons already. I don't know what more you want.
You've highlighted "bad play", you haven't explained why that makes you think he's scum.
You've blamed him for the NeverTim lynch a bunch of times. Ok maybe you really think that, but I don't find it very convincing - everyone is responsible for their own vote, I'm more worried about those easily lead than the one guy who suggests a target (with decent reasoning) and suddenly finds himself heading a bandwagon.
You also make a point of him leading this lynch on a town PR - this is a complete nonsense. Even if he's scum he'd have no way of knowing on D1 that NeverTim had a PR.
Someone is guaranteed going to be lynched on day 1. Someone else is almost guaranteed to get the blame/credit for that lynch, which more often than not will be on a townie (and there are more PRs than non PRs). Equating that first lynch "leader" to scum makes no sense, and such a weak argument aimed at a supposedly-influential player looks scummy in itself.
So is that all you have or do you have more to add? You've been gunning pretty hard for Flux as you yourself have pointed out.
Splinter imma let you finish, but first let me answer these questions
That's one of the scenarios I was thinking of after typing that out. STILL doesn't look good for Blarg.
It could, but that kind of con would benefit from some prep, wouldn't it? If either of our teams were setup that way, the one that claimed Miller Tracker day 1 is the one that looks more capable of pulling it off.
It's also assuming that if we were the ones running the "Fake Tracker" scheme, there just happened to be another player who happened to claim Miller Tracker in the first 30 minutes of the game?
Zipped and I weren't the ones who claimed a Miller Tracker on Day 1, heroically volunteering to be on the lookout for us in plain view.
That's one of the scenarios I was thinking of after typing that out. STILL doesn't look good for Blarg.
It could, but that kind of con would benefit from some prep, wouldn't it? If either of our teams were setup that way, the one that claimed Miller Tracker day 1 is the one that looks more capable of pulling it off.
It's also assuming that if we were the ones running the "Fake Tracker" scheme, there just happened to be another player who happened to claim Miller Tracker in the first 30 minutes of the game?
Zipped and I weren't the ones who claimed a Miller Tracker on Day 1, heroically volunteering to be on the lookout for us in plain view.
Well, the assumption would be that you came up with the plan after seeing the role claim and after being aware of whatever the hell happened on N1.
But I do agree that the preparation for a plan like this would be pretty applicable to Blarg's team, who came up with the setup on D1.
Flux, whether it's a grand conspiracy or a simple case of opposite-team Trackers, the situation is effectively the same for now. It's us or it's them (or, worse of all, it's neither).
The more complicated suspicions are a possibility, but it's really just rampant speculation at this point.
The more complicated suspicions are a possibility, but it's really just rampant speculation at this point.
Either Blarg targeted Kark as a tracker or as something else. He still targeted Kark. I know we love keep thinking of multiple possibilities here, but we can simplify it into the following discrete scenarios:
1) Blarg and Kark are both telling the truth -- they are both town trackers who tracked themselves.
2) Kark is telling the truth, but Blarg is lying about being town/miller.
3) Blarg is telling the truth, Kark is lying about being town
4) Kark is telling the truth, Blarg is lying about being a tracker yet still targeted Kark last night
5) They are both lying
Discounting the scenario where they are both lying -- I see no way mafia gains from that, we can deduce...
We know Blarg targeted Kark last night? How? They both admit it. Kark says he sees Blarg target him, Blarg confirms he tracked Kark. The only other option here is that Blarg is lying about how he targeted Kark -- instead of tracking him he did something else completely. Which is bad.
Which, simplifying further, leaves us with the following two possibilities:
1) Blarg is a tracker as well who tracked Kark, but is also claiming Miller
2) Blarg targeted Kark in some other way
I think either of those possibilities are strong enough to lynch him today.
1) Blarg and Kark are both telling the truth -- they are both town trackers who tracked themselves.
2) Kark is telling the truth, but Blarg is lying about being town/miller.
3) Blarg is telling the truth, Kark is lying about being town
4) Kark is telling the truth, Blarg is lying about being a tracker yet still targeted Kark last night
5) They are both lying
Discounting the scenario where they are both lying -- I see no way mafia gains from that, we can deduce...
We know Blarg targeted Kark last night? How? They both admit it. Kark says he sees Blarg target him, Blarg confirms he tracked Kark. The only other option here is that Blarg is lying about how he targeted Kark -- instead of tracking him he did something else completely. Which is bad.
Which, simplifying further, leaves us with the following two possibilities:
1) Blarg is a tracker as well who tracked Kark, but is also claiming Miller
2) Blarg targeted Kark in some other way
I think either of those possibilities are strong enough to lynch him today.
Flux was the other thing wrong with D1, and I could at least openly come down on that.
I didn't feel like it was safe to question Blarg (the "Day 1 Strategy Guide"). There were too many risks in claiming Tracker then and there.
We probed a little - if you notice, I actually specifically directed my questions at Kawl, so as to not directly engage with the crazy. But we couldn't ask a lot of pointed questions without suggesting to the world that we were Trackers.
What was your motivation to engage with Blarg's team and claim on D2 instead of on D1? What changed?
We tracked them
Thanks. I had somehow forgotten about the Strategy Guide, but I thought about the need to not reveal yourself.
That leads to a follow up question you've probably been asked before, but I don't remember the answer. What changed and made you comfortable role claiming today? A claim yesterday would probably have done the same and either way this claim puts you (assuming you are town) at a high risk of being night killed.
That leads to a follow up question you've probably been asked before, but I don't remember the answer. What changed and made you comfortable role claiming today? A claim yesterday would probably have done the same and either way this claim puts you (assuming you are town) at a high risk of being night killed.
Zippedpinhead
Member
Well, normally a player doesn't claim an investigation role day 1...
Honestly? It was the whole mirror tracking. What If they have some sort of vacuum role they could kill us in the night and no one would ever know we had this issue.
Ultimately it came down to this: We figured a 1:1 scum for town lynch is a good deal for town and a terrible deal for scum.
Because you know for certain they're probably also trackers? Or were you hoping to catch them kill someone?
He claimed his goal was to get his team lynched to avoid having town lynch a PR. He ended up being the first on a bandwagon to lynch a PR. Any dumbass townie can get themselves lynched D1 if they try, so if that was really his plan then he failed spectacularly at it. It's not just bad play, it's literally the opposite of what he said he was trying to do.
Also, I'm not sure why you're going all out on me when I'm not pushing for a Flux lynch right now anyway. There's bigger fish to fry at the moment, and I'll probably change my views if/when we get some D3 info that clears him or makes someone else look even more suspicious anyway.
Zipped and I juggled a few options for who to track during the night. We then settled on Blawl, because we figured that as the player who was expected to report a result on D2(I was right; people were asking for the result right away), we could check it against that.