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[Mafia] NX Launch Night |OT| Back of the Line!

Sorian

Banned
k that was good Blarg, now let me take the baton. I'll tag you back in later, probably.

Sooooo we're definitely lynching batsnacks the verifiable Jailer today, right

Not cabbeh the unverifiable-except-through-lynching Miller

or Kakarot the Carrot

or LaunchpadMcQ the Wererabbit

or me

So let's say I don't believe batsnacks at all (I don't) but what is the harm in letting him have one night to jail someone and seeing if anyone steps forward to verify his claim? As I typed that sentence though, I realized there is no reason to expect that the jailer is always a town-aligned role.
 

roytheone

Member
Well, it seems pretty clear now that batsnacks will be lynched. I still think it would be better to go with Cabbeh his check plan, and lynch bat tomorrow if that doesn't prove his claim. If Batsnacks flips jailor in about 2 hours, that would be a HUGE loss for town, and I am not willing to take that risk when we have the option to check his claim without lynching him, even though he did behave pretty weird today.

What if I told you this wasn't even day 1's final form?

Didn't the last time somebody said this, Cabbeh almost immediately came out with his Millar claim? Let's hope you didn't jinx us with this ;)
 

Ourobolus

Banned
So let's say I don't believe batsnacks at all (I don't) but what is the harm in letting him have one night to jail someone and seeing if anyone steps forward to verify his claim? As I typed that sentence though, I realized there is no reason to expect that the jailer is always a town-aligned role.

The way I see it, if batsnacks is telling the truth, he's going to be lynched tonight anyway. Or the next night, if he is verified.
 

Sorian

Banned
The way I see it, if batsnacks is telling the truth, he's going to be lynched tonight anyway. Or the next night, if he is verified.

That's poor logic though, if you really think he will just be offed tonight then why waste our lynch with him? Why not let NFA waste their NK instead?
 

batsnacks

Member
So let's say I don't believe batsnacks at all (I don't) but what is the harm in letting him have one night to jail someone and seeing if anyone steps forward to verify his claim? As I typed that sentence though, I realized there is no reason to expect that the jailer is always a town-aligned role.
This is true, I have seen a mafia aligned jailer before.
 

Karkador

Banned
So let's say I don't believe batsnacks at all (I don't) but what is the harm in letting him have one night to jail someone and seeing if anyone steps forward to verify his claim? As I typed that sentence though, I realized there is no reason to expect that the jailer is always a town-aligned role.

Also, as a Town Jailer, he'd be so blind on N1, he might as well be working for NFA.
 

Sorian

Banned
Because he's not what he says he is, and wont be killed, lol

True. I dunno. But if he isn't telling the truth and is scum, then he'd still be around.

Just playing devil's advocate while we fall down the wormhole. Ok, so he lives to tomorrow, someone says they got a cigarette and looked cool or something. We lynch him anyway on day 2? And still go for either another high profile target today while we wait and see.

Like I said, I think he is lying but in a small game like this, I'd like to be more careful with potential PRs.
 

Karkador

Banned
The other potential plan of his is, if we let him, Mafia will arrange a no-kill on N1, and he'll claim that he must have jailed a mafia player, who is (conveniently) not going to confirm him because that would be outing themselves as mafia.

Then he'll name some random-ass person as the mafia he targeted.


DEAD WEIGHT
 

batsnacks

Member
The other potential plan of his is, if we let him, Mafia will arrange a no-kill on N1, and he'll claim that he must have jailed a mafia player, who is (conveniently) not going to confirm him because that would be outing themselves as mafia.

Then he'll name some random-ass person as the mafia he targeted.


DEAD WEIGHT

It would be just as efficient to just nk... The same number of townies die.
 

Sorian

Banned
The other potential plan of his is, if we let him, Mafia will arrange a no-kill on N1, and he'll claim that he must have jailed a mafia player, who is (conveniently) not going to confirm him because that would be outing themselves as mafia.

Then he'll name some random-ass person as the mafia he targeted.


DEAD WEIGHT

4126899-8617091212-xaZPu.gif


I like my Batman gifs

I stay convinced on batsnacks then. We're going to have to have a talk tomorrow depending on how batsy flips though. And Launch wants to talk to you as well so I'm not worried about being NK'd if that's the case.
 

Fireblend

Banned
This is a good point too though, if we let him jail, he'll probably screw it up and block an investigation tonight or something.

This is a good point. There are several scenarios in which his plan is just not going to work or work to our detriment - if we let him live he may block an important role and he might not even make it through the night (I'm almost convinced that's the best scenario). I expect there are ways for mafia to make use of the knowledge that there's a jailor in play and confuse our read of what happened during the night. If no one confirms him, how are we gonna tell between him being a bluffing scum or actually having hit scum? If someone does, how do we know they're not in cahoots?
 

batsnacks

Member
This is a good point. There are several scenarios in which his plan is just not going to work or work to our detriment - if we let him live he may block an important role and he might not even make it through the night (I'm almost convinced that's the best scenario). I expect there are ways for mafia to make use of the knowledge that there's a jailor in play and confuse our read of what happened during the night. If no one confirms him, how are we gonna tell between him being a bluffing scum or actually having hit scum? If someone does, how do we know they're not in cahoots?

If no one confirms me you just lynch me. Sort of sucks for me because mafia probably has a rb they can use on me but, oh well.
 

batsnacks

Member
Yes, but that doesn't misdirect players to look at non-mafia. Mafia NKing is easy. Setting up the conditions for the long game is the hard part.

I think it's pretty much the same thing, one is just riskier cause town can just not listen to me... Me and 1 townie of mafia's choosing still die.
 
We should NOT lynch batsnacks today. Leave him as a potential target for NoFun, and see if he survives the Night. He probably will, because NoFun will leave him alive because he's a valuable Daytime point of contention; but, if they do kill him, then he'll be dead anyway and his role will be confirmed that way.

Let him jail someone trustworthy tonight and see if his claim that his target will be notified of their jailing is true or not, by having that trustworthy target report back to us tomorrow.

I volunteer myself to be batsnacks' target. If we both survive tonight, I will tell you all if he jailed me or not, no puzzles or lies.

We should lynch cabbeh today, because we're going to have to eventually anyway since it's impossible for an Investigator to verify his true alignment due to his Miller-ness. As opposed to the slim chance that NoFun will kill batsnacks tonight, NoFun will NEVER kill cabbeh because he's a FunTown power role black hole AND an ever-present conversation piece.

We might as well do the deed on Day 1, and off cabbeh today, while it's still Early Bird hour up in this partay.
 

Karkador

Banned
The other potential plan of his is, if we let him, Mafia will arrange a no-kill on N1, and he'll claim that he must have jailed a mafia player, who is (conveniently) not going to confirm him because that would be outing themselves as mafia.

Quoting myself, Blarg style.

Thinking about it more, he could claim this even with Mafia getting an NK. The "mafia player" isn't gonna confirm, whether or not they did their NK.


DEAD WEIGHT
 

Sorian

Banned
We should NOT lynch batsnacks today. Leave him as a potential target for NoFun, and see if he survives the Night. He probably will, because NoFun will leave him alive because he's a valuable Daytime point of contention; but, if they do kill him, then he'll be dead anyway and his role will be confirmed that way.

Let him jail someone trustworthy tonight and see if his claim that his target will be notified of their jailing is true or not, by having that trustworthy target report back to us tomorrow.

I volunteer myself to be batsnacks' target. If we both survive tonight, I will tell you all if he jailed me or not, no puzzles or lies.

We should lynch cabbeh today, because we're going to have to eventually anyway since it's impossible for an Investigator to verify his true alignment due to his Miller-ness. As opposed to the slim chance that NoFun will kill batsnacks tonight, NoFun will NEVER kill cabbeh because he's a FunTown power role black hole AND an ever-present conversation piece.

We might as well do the deed on Day 1, and off cabbeh today, while it's still Early Bird hour up in this partay.

So, you're not interested in chasing the fox and the hound anymore, you'd rather go for cold info today? That's........well that's more sensical than normal.
 

cabot

Member
I appreciate the man who's been talking to himself all day feels I can't contribute any further to this game.

Thanks, Blarg.

Thank you as well, Blarg.

It's not a bad shout, and I must admit I'd still rather put bats to the test than burn him myself, I'm not going to vote for him. It's up to you guys if you think keeping me here is worthwhile.

VOTE: Karkador

because of his behaviour after my claim, and partly because he might worry that I'm actually a hunter and looking to go down with him. This thought amuses me.
 
Launchpad's Day End Summary (Not intended to be taken as gospel, but in the event of my death, to give you some thoughts which could help determine why I was killed)

batsnacks: Ok, this guy is guilty as hell. I haven't seen someone this guilty-looking in awhile. Full meltdown and everything. I think he is the best, most obvious choice for today. In the next phase, if he flips mafia, focus on his interactions with other players and his lack of interaction with other players.

Karkador: Second most suspicious person. Please, just because batsnacks is mafia does not mean Karkador isn't. He's been suspicious from the start, and he jumped on this batsnacks train when the going was good, probably to cover his own ass once he saw the writing on the wall. If I die, at least discuss the possibility that he's a mafia member. Kark's behavior since early on has been anti-town, erratic, and wholly negative. He tried to pull some shit, and it "worked" according to him. Yet, he was retreating for a good portion of the time and trying to flip things around on me. Maybe I took it a little personally, but he was being explicitly negative and attacking me, taking things I said and twisting them; what's more, he was straight ignoring many of the things I said which were more reasonable and replacing them with the opposite of what was said. Eventually, he calmed down. However, from the get-go he'd been advocating a no-lynch day 1; suddenly, batsnacks is looking pretty good on what is essentially the same evidence I've got on him, so he hedges his bets on batsnacks to buy some cred. It's incredibly suspicious behavior and it's worth scrutinizing after this day phase is over.

Ourobolus: I'm not saying that he's entirely trustworthy, but I'm less inclined to believe he's mafia since he's been pushing for batsnacks since the beginning of the day phase. If there's anything to note here, it's that Ouro would be a very dangerous mafia and capable of something like this. He's learned a lot in a short period of time, and whereas he was relatively quiet in the AC mafia, he's learned that he can't play like that and get away with it anymore. Still, there's nothing solid on him yet, so I would suggest for now just keep an eye on him.

Sorian: He's an ally I made in this phase, but I am extremely weary of trusting him. A lot of the time, there's always at least one mafia who is extremely active in the thread to try to mask his guilt; Sorian fits that bill, but then so do I. I'm writing this with the expectation that I'll be dead when you read it, so keep him in the back of your mind at the very least. He's done nothing to prove that he's town, other than activating a lot of Trap Cards™.

Blargonaut: I enjoy Blarg's posts, but he's got a real vendetta against me for some reason or another. Truthfully, my feeling is that he's town or that he's very good at pretending to be town. He's got the tunnel vision; however, most of what he's said is true, even about my behavior. Still, as he's said himself, he's been acting slightly differently in this game, which could be indicative of something.

cabbeh: cabbeh's extremely suspect, but I think he just goofed up. He should have roleclaimed earlier in the day phase. As was discussed, after the first few minutes, a Miller claim will always look suspicious as hell. Well, realistically, one should be suspicious of a Miller claim at any point. I don't think he's a role that wants to be lynched, yet I can't dismiss that possibility.

Darryl: Focuses on stuff the rest of the town doesn't discuss much. He might know what he's doing, he might not. I can't say for sure. He's a pretty confusing piece of this puzzle, and that's reason enough to keep an eye on him.

On the margins: These are the players I have trouble coming up with anything solid on.
SalvaPot - makes a series of reactionary posts; disappears for a significant amount of time.
TheGoddamn - no presence. Typically, in a 4 mafia member game, 1 member is really active, 1 is moderately active, and the other 2 quiet. I think there is at least one quiet member in the mafia this game, as I have too many players I don't have a read on.
roytheone - band
Fireblend - wagon
Burbeting - ing
Lone_Prodigy - no presence.
RetroMG - Too much house remodeling, not enough mafia playing.

Launchpad: Closing thoughts about myself. I was initially not very straight forward with the town because, frankly, I wanted to cover my own ass. But, that's not what feels natural to me when playing mafia, so I latched onto something that came off as extremely suspicious and pursued it aggressively. I still think I had good reason to do so, and I think my aggressiveness eventually led into [what I'm hoping is] a successful mafia lynch, so I have no regrets there. Many of you are suspicious of me for good reason; others, not so much. I hope as time goes on (or if I turn up dead), you'll believe I'm a townie. Even though we've had a strong start, and I believe we're a strong town, we still have to keep our wits about us in the coming phases because I think things are just going to get more difficult from here.

I'm gonna post my final 4 since the days almost over:
Lone_prod
Retro
Kark
Ouro

Then there's this shit. Rule is, whatever a mafia member says after they've been busted, it's important to focus on it. 1 of these 4 is definitely mafia.
 
Blargonaut: I enjoy Blarg's posts, but he's got a real vendetta against me for some reason or another. Truthfully, my feeling is that he's town or that he's very good at pretending to be town. He's got the tunnel vision; however, most of what he's said is true, even about my behavior. Still, as he's said himself, he's been acting slightly differently in this game, which could be indicative of something.

AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA
 

Sorian

Banned
Sorian: He's an ally I made in this phase, but I am extremely weary of trusting him. A lot of the time, there's always at least one mafia who is extremely active in the thread to try to mask his guilt; Sorian fits that bill, but then so do I. I'm writing this with the expectation that I'll be dead when you read it, so keep him in the back of your mind at the very least. He's done nothing to prove that he's town, other than activating a lot of Trap Cards™

Always suspect me, ALWAYS suspect me. That's fine, I know I try to lead all the time and it's no good if people just blindly follow, that doesn't help anyone. That being said, fuck trap cards, they've only led to my own demise.

Is it, Sorian

IS IT

It is but a few things that have been said are making me think I should go for Kark instead of batsnacks. I actually quite trust cabbeh now so I don't need to flip him yet to see his info but I think he might have a better nose for what smells than some of us.
 

batsnacks

Member
I mean, we don't need to lynch Kark. I think he's a good lynch but if anyone is interested I would be down for some shenanies onto Lone_Prodigy.
 

Sorian

Banned
Also, let's be real, if there is an override in this game, the command would obviously be

BACK OF THE LINE: Blargonaut
 
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