Probably but today isn't as obvious as yesterday so I'd like to discuss the finer points that we may gloss over in our bid for Salva, I didn't start with him because I figured we'd be getting there. Blarg's reaction so far today is selling me that he is a lost partner for NFA team. Salva has a high probability of being scum. When it comes down to it, going for probable scum is a better vote than going for a potential recruit but Blarg will have to go soon if my hunch made sense to you all if only because if there is a recruiter on their team, they will likely try Blarg now that I've brought it up if they didn't already.
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[Mafia] NX Launch Night |OT| Back of the Line!
- Thread starter CzarTim
- Start date
Probably but today isn't as obvious as yesterday so I'd like to discuss the finer points that we may gloss over in our bid for Salva, I didn't start with him because I figured we'd be getting there. Blarg's reaction so far today is selling me that he is a lost partner for NFA team. Salva has a high probability of being scum. When it comes down to it, going for probable scum is a better vote than going for a potential recruit but Blarg will have to go soon if my hunch made sense to you all if only because if there is a recruiter on their team, they will likely try Blarg now that I've brought it up if they didn't already.
LaunchpadMcQ
Banned
What's your hunch? Sorry, it's hard keeping track of everything on mobile.
If it's that Blarg wants to be targeted to be flipped, I concur, because from very early on that whole gambit of his reeked of "kill me plz"
Come on Launch.
I'll ask an easy question, just to get a feel of things. Who would rather vote for at this time? Blarg or Salva?
This is believable to me.
He said his top scum putting Salva to the side.
Killing me here Launch. This post below:
Basically that I think he is town-aligned currently but I believe that NFA can recruit him some how.
Blarg seems more of an unknown, so if I had to pick I'd say Salva. But Salva is based more on general suspicion than anything concrete, while Blarg is based on his Blarging of yesterday. That doesn't necessarily mean he's scum (or even that his roleclaim is true), but it's something worth keeping on the table to discuss.
So Salva. For now.
LaunchpadMcQ
Banned
Sorian pls, I just said it's hard keeping track
You give me a hard time when I'm on my windows phone, it's only fair.
Hasn't he himself confirmed that this was indeed the case? Only he says he wanted to be targeted so that the mafia wouldn't target burb, burb could watch him and we would have found another scum?
reread the post where I labeled you as scum, I said I was setting salva aside for it.
YOU'RE NOT MY SUPERVISOR.
LaunchpadMcQ
Banned
Using a Windows phone is a scum tell
I hate you all.
Ok, everyone who has beef with Salva, present your cases. I have a report to do, but I am feeling like Salva is a good choice for today; I can't justify it at the moment, though.
LaunchpadMcQ
Banned
Write a post justifying it*
Please, windows phone is better than anything you have, the true scum tell is that you would argue. Back on topic, here is my reasoning for a Salva vote:
I will probably end up agreeing with a Salva lynch today but I'd rather keep my vote on Blarg for now. I like to pretend that he is scrambling to come up with a story in the NFA chat though he is probably just busy or something.
Might as well quote myself, since I've been reasonably detailed already.
I was going to remove the compliment but that would be juvenile and scummy.
I also direct you to this post for a bit more detailed examination of Salva tunneling Blarg completely before then drive by voting batsnacks.
This was after Kark flipped, I'd like to point this out because
1) It was pretty mean and I hurt all my feelings on it
2) Pretty interesting reaction considering he was for getting batsnacks, despite batsnacks having the (slightly) less frustrating and believable behaviour for a claim.
I did notice this one as well and he even came back to it on day 2 saying something along the lines of " you guys didn't believe me yesterday with Kark, so you should actually listen to me today with Blarg" To be fair though, I don't think he went after Kark so his claim that he "knew" isn't something I can say was a lie.
Lone_Prodigy
Member
Want a brownie?
Oh my god do I EVER. I baked a batch of cinnamon rolls the day AC mafia won. they're all gone now
I think squidyj asked the same question at the end of day 2, and this was my response back then:
I still stand by it. His opinions of Blarg weren't that weird, the fact that he was so extremely dead set on lynching Blarg and not Fire is the thing that bugs me.
You got another one in there? You could Becky Blarg and then we could continue on with other leads. I know you don't though, giving you multiple in a 15 person game would be ridiculous.
I take this thought back actually. This game was built on ridiculous.
So I just went back to see Salva's argument for Kark:
I mean it was pretty weak, and in fact he was with a majority of us who thought Kark was just a townie and not a PR. Then he drives suspicion onto me again, before claiming a no lynch, which seems a bit counter intuitive.
Certainly not enough of a reason there to claim 'I told you so' on D2. By his own logic he's an ordinary townie, but ridding the game of him only benefits town because it's less murky.
With that logic in mind, read his reply to my claim once again:
I brought this up with him before but I still don't understand this logic. I am an ordinary townie. Yes, the nature of my role means I will have to be lynched sooner or later, but my problem with Salva was that he was so unwilling to give me a chance at contributing, he just thought 'Disruption, fuck it.' and that was that.
Hilariously, saying this in the middle of Kark's ridiculous gambit which was such a huge distraction makes it even more strange!
I mean it was pretty weak, and in fact he was with a majority of us who thought Kark was just a townie and not a PR. Then he drives suspicion onto me again, before claiming a no lynch, which seems a bit counter intuitive.
Certainly not enough of a reason there to claim 'I told you so' on D2. By his own logic he's an ordinary townie, but ridding the game of him only benefits town because it's less murky.
With that logic in mind, read his reply to my claim once again:
I brought this up with him before but I still don't understand this logic. I am an ordinary townie. Yes, the nature of my role means I will have to be lynched sooner or later, but my problem with Salva was that he was so unwilling to give me a chance at contributing, he just thought 'Disruption, fuck it.' and that was that.
Hilariously, saying this in the middle of Kark's ridiculous gambit which was such a huge distraction makes it even more strange!
Funny you say that, I doubt anyone can use any other type of alignment check now so we will never know if you appear as NFA or fun or neutral in a search. At this point, you are basically claiming ordinary and a lynch on you would only be because you've done something to garner suspicion.
I don't really want to be an asshole but what great insight are we allowing ourselves to trust in when you flip town?
Nothing particularly awesome. That wasn't a point of arrogance, but I feel when you remove the suspicion from me, you can look back on my posts/thoughts/insights with some confidence and use it to aid your own views.
Having something to trust in this game is vitally important in my view, and you usually only get that trust with Mafia working together/certain PRs/death.
Eh, if we trust you then we trust you, if we don't then we don't. We aren't hurting for leads, if you are actually scum then we will catch you another way and being town won't mean much, it's not like town always tells the truth and scum always lies, we don't gain much right now knowing you are town for sure.
Still trying to get with YNNNY, kudos for the extended effort.
really
Every fucking time :l
Neat, another day another chance to be the most suspicious player in the game, I think its because of my avatar x).
Time to go through my reasoning for all my posts, I leave the interpretation up to you guys:
The First Day
This one is pretty simple, it was day 1 so we had nothing to go for. I am normally a pro-No Lynch player on the first day, but I felt that, for this particular shorter game, a lynch would be more effective. I already explained in detail why I thought this, but the short of is is that information is vital in shorter games. One lynch was enough for me.
Batsnacks played awful that first day, and he pretty much got steamrolled by all of us, in day one pretty much the one who claims the most suspicious dies, no matter the claim, and his jailer role was weirdly explained, then it was the matter of Lone_Prodigy one-shotting him, that honestly if I was on his position I would totally would too.
Then, after that, people got hot on Karkador´s trail. At first I felt that we might as well get him too, but as Karkador layed out more why he was doing what he was doing, the idea that he was actually a PR (Even a cop) was stronger in my mind. I did said so in here:
People think of this as "Jumping in logic", but Its just adapting the strategy to the current game. We had lost an important PR and Karkador was practicaly begging us in a Tsundere way to just let the day die.
Then there is my obsession with lynching Cabbeh. Well, here is the thing, on day 1.0 I suggested Cabbeh would a better option than batsnacks, pretty much because lynching a possible miller role is not as damaging as lynching a PR, and I had no reason to believe on cabbeh´s claim other than "I claimed early, so I must be innocent". Even now I still have my doubts, but the way he is been playing so far supports he is just a townie that got an unfortunate role, but in the context of day 1 me wanting to lynch Cabbeh made sense.
The way I saw it, bats claimed jailer, cabbeh claimed miller. There was a way to confirm batsnacks (Just investigate him), there was no way to confirm cabbeh. Therefor, with the information at that moment, cabbeh made more sense.
The Blargonaut Adventures
From the first second of the game, Blargonaut acted weird. By been oddly quiet. Then, he started with the red pill/blue pill debacle. Blargonaut gameplay has always been about crazy risk and Batman Gambits, so it was weird to me how... mellow he seemed.
He was the first person I voted for seriously and if no one had talked I would have wanted him lynched. Karkador, Cabbeh and Batsnacks stepped up to the spotlight, so I dropped him for now So it was relieving to me when he did his role reveal on Day 2.
Day 2
For starters, this day was far better than the first one. The death of Ourobolus was not a big blow, due to his ordinary kid nature, and I am sure Ouro will be ok it was him instead of someone important. What Day 1 had on quantity, Day 2 had in quality. Burbs (RIP) came in with brilliant information and gave us two main suspects: Sorian and Fireblend.
At this point, I was pretty much on agreement that Fireblend had to die. I had some debate about the validity of Sorian´s claims and a bit of leftover drama from cabbeh, but it was a pretty easy solution. Sorian´s claim was early and well put enough that it pretty much left Fire as the only possible guilty party. Fire had a weak defense that seemed to convenient to work, but we did entertain the idea because this is a game about deception
and we have to take every possible scenario into account.
Then Blargonaut came up with the lighting rod stuff.
Seriously, why did he had to do that? The thing is, when people say "blarg gotta blarg" I don´t buy it. Blarg, as crazy as he is, always has something in mind to gain. Since the first time he mentioned his plan, I found it odd. I was thinking it was bullshit. And as such, the chance that Fire was been framed was slight in my mind. So I worked on breaking Blargonaut argument as much as I could, something that others tried to do but pretty much dismissed after a while.
I didn´t like how everyone just up and accepted Blargonaut´s plan, a player that I have found suspicious from the very beginning and continue to think so, but I will explain why in a moment.
In my attacks on Blarg I never, ever dismissed Fireblend as a NFA. At most I said there was a chance that he was framed, but it was very slight, and in my proposal of lynching Blargonaut I made it clear that Fireblend should be next. The reason I wanted Blargonaut lynched first was because his plan required the complete cooperation of town and he claimed to be an NFA player that turned good, how convenient is that? In that moment, I was not going to let a self-claimed NFA player to lead town.
After Blargonaut retracted, it was even more suspicious to me. Blargonaut was not really that close to be lynched and he came back with an overly serious apology that even included a suggestion of getting himself mod-killed, that to me was just silly, even if that last part wasn´t serious.
But then I realized that his role claim had a fatal flaw since the beginning, because if he knew he was lying, then the NFA most know he was lying too, because, again, the NFA KNOWS who they killed. So Blargonaut was not really deceiving or confusing NFA, he was deceiving town. I don´t know if Blargonaut did this in purpose or it was just a mistake to ignore this flaw, but it would have make all this gambit pointless if Blarg was thinking for the benefit of town. Based on this, I kept my suspicion on him even after claiming he was lying, because his lie could only benefit NFA even before knowing Fire´s real alignment.
Now that we know that Fireblend is both NFA and a switcher, it make us wonder what exactly was Blarg trying to do. We have to take into account that Fireblend multiple actions sound EXTREMELY valuable to town, blocking roles, switching players, killing if needs to be, all this is great to have on the dark side.
Maybe Blargs gambit was to get lynched instead of Fireblend? I don´t know. Maybe he was trying to clear suspicion of Fireblend, but instead he got them both in a dangerous position, so he had to pull out. Or maybe he was trying to protect burbs, as he was saying, trying to confuse NFA and didn´t realized how his plan had this flaw until much later. Retracting make it worst, because now we have to question why he had to lie at all, so by retracting we just have to, well, trust his word.
And I don´t trust him. My logic tells me that this was not accident. I think Blarg tried either take the chance to prove himself worthy of town or get himself lynched instead of fire so fire can have another day for his actions. All this, of course, speculation.
About Fireblend
Here is what is weird to me. He has a lot of awesome abilities, why settle in just getting a kill? NFA should have other members that have a kill command that don´t have as many useful abilities as fire did, so why should they waste fireblend´s command on the kill?
So here is a possibility: He was saying the truth about the switching. He did switch Sorian and Ouro and this got Ouro killed. But this begs the question, Why?. If the NFA decided to kill Ouro, then there is no need to have him be switched with sorian, and the same could be said the other way around, so why did this happen?
I checked Fire´s role description and no where it mentions the NFA private forum, so I want to ask to CzarTim, do they have a chat room? Or are they all in-communicated? The role did mention making the faction night kill by using the command REMOVE, but i find it weird there is no redacted part about the chat.
So maybe NFA can´t communicate and that is why both a switch and a kill happened?
Eh, Occams Razor and all that, maybe I am thinking to much into it, but fact is we have no leads right now and I still find Blargonaut extremely suspect about his actions in day 1, his role claim and plan in day 2, and said retraction in the same day 2.
Vote: Blargonaut
Time to go through my reasoning for all my posts, I leave the interpretation up to you guys:
The First Day
This one is pretty simple, it was day 1 so we had nothing to go for. I am normally a pro-No Lynch player on the first day, but I felt that, for this particular shorter game, a lynch would be more effective. I already explained in detail why I thought this, but the short of is is that information is vital in shorter games. One lynch was enough for me.
Batsnacks played awful that first day, and he pretty much got steamrolled by all of us, in day one pretty much the one who claims the most suspicious dies, no matter the claim, and his jailer role was weirdly explained, then it was the matter of Lone_Prodigy one-shotting him, that honestly if I was on his position I would totally would too.
Then, after that, people got hot on Karkador´s trail. At first I felt that we might as well get him too, but as Karkador layed out more why he was doing what he was doing, the idea that he was actually a PR (Even a cop) was stronger in my mind. I did said so in here:
People think of this as "Jumping in logic", but Its just adapting the strategy to the current game. We had lost an important PR and Karkador was practicaly begging us in a Tsundere way to just let the day die.
Then there is my obsession with lynching Cabbeh. Well, here is the thing, on day 1.0 I suggested Cabbeh would a better option than batsnacks, pretty much because lynching a possible miller role is not as damaging as lynching a PR, and I had no reason to believe on cabbeh´s claim other than "I claimed early, so I must be innocent". Even now I still have my doubts, but the way he is been playing so far supports he is just a townie that got an unfortunate role, but in the context of day 1 me wanting to lynch Cabbeh made sense.
The way I saw it, bats claimed jailer, cabbeh claimed miller. There was a way to confirm batsnacks (Just investigate him), there was no way to confirm cabbeh. Therefor, with the information at that moment, cabbeh made more sense.
The Blargonaut Adventures
From the first second of the game, Blargonaut acted weird. By been oddly quiet. Then, he started with the red pill/blue pill debacle. Blargonaut gameplay has always been about crazy risk and Batman Gambits, so it was weird to me how... mellow he seemed.
He was the first person I voted for seriously and if no one had talked I would have wanted him lynched. Karkador, Cabbeh and Batsnacks stepped up to the spotlight, so I dropped him for now So it was relieving to me when he did his role reveal on Day 2.
Day 2
For starters, this day was far better than the first one. The death of Ourobolus was not a big blow, due to his ordinary kid nature, and I am sure Ouro will be ok it was him instead of someone important. What Day 1 had on quantity, Day 2 had in quality. Burbs (RIP) came in with brilliant information and gave us two main suspects: Sorian and Fireblend.
At this point, I was pretty much on agreement that Fireblend had to die. I had some debate about the validity of Sorian´s claims and a bit of leftover drama from cabbeh, but it was a pretty easy solution. Sorian´s claim was early and well put enough that it pretty much left Fire as the only possible guilty party. Fire had a weak defense that seemed to convenient to work, but we did entertain the idea because this is a game about deception
and we have to take every possible scenario into account.
Then Blargonaut came up with the lighting rod stuff.
Seriously, why did he had to do that? The thing is, when people say "blarg gotta blarg" I don´t buy it. Blarg, as crazy as he is, always has something in mind to gain. Since the first time he mentioned his plan, I found it odd. I was thinking it was bullshit. And as such, the chance that Fire was been framed was slight in my mind. So I worked on breaking Blargonaut argument as much as I could, something that others tried to do but pretty much dismissed after a while.
I didn´t like how everyone just up and accepted Blargonaut´s plan, a player that I have found suspicious from the very beginning and continue to think so, but I will explain why in a moment.
In my attacks on Blarg I never, ever dismissed Fireblend as a NFA. At most I said there was a chance that he was framed, but it was very slight, and in my proposal of lynching Blargonaut I made it clear that Fireblend should be next. The reason I wanted Blargonaut lynched first was because his plan required the complete cooperation of town and he claimed to be an NFA player that turned good, how convenient is that? In that moment, I was not going to let a self-claimed NFA player to lead town.
After Blargonaut retracted, it was even more suspicious to me. Blargonaut was not really that close to be lynched and he came back with an overly serious apology that even included a suggestion of getting himself mod-killed, that to me was just silly, even if that last part wasn´t serious.
But then I realized that his role claim had a fatal flaw since the beginning, because if he knew he was lying, then the NFA most know he was lying too, because, again, the NFA KNOWS who they killed. So Blargonaut was not really deceiving or confusing NFA, he was deceiving town. I don´t know if Blargonaut did this in purpose or it was just a mistake to ignore this flaw, but it would have make all this gambit pointless if Blarg was thinking for the benefit of town. Based on this, I kept my suspicion on him even after claiming he was lying, because his lie could only benefit NFA even before knowing Fire´s real alignment.
Now that we know that Fireblend is both NFA and a switcher, it make us wonder what exactly was Blarg trying to do. We have to take into account that Fireblend multiple actions sound EXTREMELY valuable to town, blocking roles, switching players, killing if needs to be, all this is great to have on the dark side.
Maybe Blargs gambit was to get lynched instead of Fireblend? I don´t know. Maybe he was trying to clear suspicion of Fireblend, but instead he got them both in a dangerous position, so he had to pull out. Or maybe he was trying to protect burbs, as he was saying, trying to confuse NFA and didn´t realized how his plan had this flaw until much later. Retracting make it worst, because now we have to question why he had to lie at all, so by retracting we just have to, well, trust his word.
And I don´t trust him. My logic tells me that this was not accident. I think Blarg tried either take the chance to prove himself worthy of town or get himself lynched instead of fire so fire can have another day for his actions. All this, of course, speculation.
About Fireblend
Here is what is weird to me. He has a lot of awesome abilities, why settle in just getting a kill? NFA should have other members that have a kill command that don´t have as many useful abilities as fire did, so why should they waste fireblend´s command on the kill?
So here is a possibility: He was saying the truth about the switching. He did switch Sorian and Ouro and this got Ouro killed. But this begs the question, Why?. If the NFA decided to kill Ouro, then there is no need to have him be switched with sorian, and the same could be said the other way around, so why did this happen?
I checked Fire´s role description and no where it mentions the NFA private forum, so I want to ask to CzarTim, do they have a chat room? Or are they all in-communicated? The role did mention making the faction night kill by using the command REMOVE, but i find it weird there is no redacted part about the chat.
So maybe NFA can´t communicate and that is why both a switch and a kill happened?
Eh, Occams Razor and all that, maybe I am thinking to much into it, but fact is we have no leads right now and I still find Blargonaut extremely suspect about his actions in day 1, his role claim and plan in day 2, and said retraction in the same day 2.
Vote: Blargonaut
LaunchpadMcQ
Banned
No chat, one less thing to worry about.
So please read everything else, the part about the chat was more relevant about Fire and why he decided to kill instead of using another action. So with that out of the way, I think the most obvious solution is that Fire just decided to do the killing and he was picked up by bubs.
Now, the fact that there is chance and all NFA can communicate with each other means that hey know what each other can do,so that means that the NFA would be aware of the value of Fireblend as a member and that may explain why blarg wanted to get attention away from him with his claim.
Also, I want to say I really don´t mind if I get lynched, I know my way of playing is conflicting and direct to the point, I don´t have a problem making enemies and throwing ideas out there of how things could have happen, it really bothers me how easy everyone was on dismising Blarg, first when he claimed lightning rod (THAT EVERYONE BELIEVED) and then when he said he was lying (THAT, AGAIN, EVERYONE BELIEVED), so excuse me if I want lynched a person that has pretty much lied to town every single move he has made. If that makes me suspicious, then so be it.
So please read everything else, the part about the chat was more relevant about Fire and why he decided to kill instead of using another action. So with that out of the way, I think the most obvious solution is that Fire just decided to do the killing and he was picked up by bubs.
Now, the fact that there is chance and all NFA can communicate with each other means that hey know what each other can do,so that means that the NFA would be aware of the value of Fireblend as a member and that may explain why blarg wanted to get attention away from him with his claim.
Also, I want to say I really don´t mind if I get lynched, I know my way of playing is conflicting and direct to the point, I don´t have a problem making enemies and throwing ideas out there of how things could have happen, it really bothers me how easy everyone was on dismising Blarg, first when he claimed lightning rod (THAT EVERYONE BELIEVED) and then when he said he was lying (THAT, AGAIN, EVERYONE BELIEVED), so excuse me if I want lynched a person that has pretty much lied to town every single move he has made. If that makes me suspicious, then so be it.
Why is that? Because its too long? lol, sorry.
LaunchpadMcQ
Banned
Even in light of all the evidence, most of what you guys are saying about Salva can be said about Blarg, yet Blarg tried to kill me. As "pro-town" as his play might have seemed, the likeliest outcome was going to be me dead, not a no-kill night. What's more, why back off this claim? Most of us were buying that shit or at least buying it enough to take a wait-and-see approach with him.
Also, what happened to hounding me down? All of a sudden, it seems like he's lost his train of motivation. Isn't that suspicious as hell, coming off of heavy tunneling so haphazardly?
VOTE: Blargonaut
Also, what happened to hounding me down? All of a sudden, it seems like he's lost his train of motivation. Isn't that suspicious as hell, coming off of heavy tunneling so haphazardly?
VOTE: Blargonaut
I don't think Fireblend killed Ouro, either. I think Fireblend switched Ouro with someone else that a different mafia targeted. They did this simply because of misdirection. Fireblend can claim switcher (and be honest) and someone could have still watched whoever the first target was and clear whoever the actual killer is. It was to cover their assses, in my opinion.
Kind of backfired because of Burb, though. That's way too many people targeting one guy that died to not vote for one of them. Fire's claim seemed weak at the time, but it was just because he was probably lying about who he switched Ouro with. I still think he switched him with someone.
1) I don't know what Kark was doing, but he maybe begged at one point in the extended D1, but it was nowhere near deadline. By then he was being weirdly smug and incredibly irritating to be honest
2) Did you do this? No you didn't. I'll redirect you to THIS POST RIGHT HERE IN THE CAPITAL LETTERS. I will remind you that this is every post you made between batsnacks roleclaiming and you placing a vote on batsnacks not long before the Becky.
Notice how there's absolutely no mention of batsnacks post claim. Ouch.
3) If you're going to quote yourself, try and be accurate. I've numbered your actual quote where you say you trust my claim because of the 'no heat' reason which you downplay so hard in todays post.
4) I remember quite a lot of people having a problem with Blarg's plan. In fact, I think Sorian alone was up for it. Then Launch for about 2 hours. Everyone else had the very same arguments of not liking Blarg leading the lynch and deciding who to kill on his own whim. So much misinformation here.
5) Blarg is an issue, but his lynch didn't have as many benefits of Fire's flip. He would simultaneously confirm Burb and drop some suspicion from Sorian. His claim was also weak, which I went in detail IN THIS ALL CAPITALISED LINK HERE FOR YOUR CONVENIENCE
My vote stays.
LaunchpadMcQ
Banned
Yet, why did Burb see Sorian and Fireblend? If a switch occurred, Burb would have seen the final resulting actions on Ouro; he would not have been switched himself.