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[Mafia] NX Launch Night |OT| Back of the Line!
- Thread starter CzarTim
- Start date
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LaunchpadMcQ
Banned
Also, I wasn't going to say anything, but in a Gafia first, I'm going to bus the mod to save my own hide.
This is when Tim asked me via PM if I wanted him to modkill me because of all the stuff going on and because I was acting very negatively (for the 2 people that would get that DR reference).
Blargonaut
Banned
I think I'm rooting for you, I feel like I gain from either death though.
FUCK YOU BITCH, ANSWER ME
Blargonaut
Banned
Bro, relax. There will be blood for the blood god.
The avatar of Miyamoto really sells this craziness to me.
Blargonaut
Banned
red
Blargonaut
Banned
I'm just waiting
LaunchpadMcQ
Banned
Salva pls
Ok well, we are playing a game of mafia here and Salva is taking his time so while we wait. I notice that some people said they want to do a no vote if anyone flips town, I just wanted to analyze what my thoughts will be depending on who loses and who flips what. I'm kind of thinking as I go so I'm using this as a tool to organize my own thoughts as well.
BLARG LOSES
Blarg is town: In this scenario, I'm more willing to look at the Launch is scum theory. I know that Blarg being town doesn't automatically mean he was right about Launch being scum but the reason I've been trusting of Launch is because I think Blarg has had nefarious motives from the start and that has kind of biased my opinion on how Launch has been acting. Note that if Blarg is a lost partner that isn't linked to the NFA chat then it would still allow me to revisit the Launch idea considering he would have no way of knowing who was fun-aligned and who was NFA aligned so his guess is as good as any.
Blarg is scum: For now, this would have me assume that Launch is town.I don't think a scum Blarg and scum Launch would have agreed to do such a heavy handed bus from the very beginning of the game and I doubly don't think that they would have kept the act going so strong once it was obvious that Fire got caught red handed yesterday.
Unfortunately, I can't glean much more from a Blarg flip. I still think he will flip as a lost partner but, otherwise, his main suspects and interests have been myself, Fire, Burb, and Launch. If he is scum, this is classic play of building a suspect list using one of your own partners. If he is town, then this is just a basic suspect list, I understand why all 4 of those players could come off as suspicious so not much to glean.
SALVA LOSES
Salva is town: This would be my least favorite result out of the 4 possibilities. A world where Salva loses and flips town tells us nothing. His main suspects have been cabot which makes sense in an effort to remove an unknown variable and Blarg which makes sense for the same reason. I am using this as evidence to think that he was trying to buy Fire an extra day but if Salva is just town, well then he was just inadvertently protecting scum but that happens in the game. I can't say I'd glean anything new from this.
Salva is scum: This would clear cabot for me easily. Salva did not hold any punches here so he had no problems if the vote swung towards cabot and that doesn't read as both of them being scum. I also don't worry about cabot being recruitable in any way because claiming miller would not be the way to draw attention to yourself. It's a claim that serves to basically make it so the scum leave you alone and wait for the town to do the dirty on you. This would also clear Blarg to me of being full NFA-aligned. My main theory is he is/was still a lost partner so that doesn't make me want to vote for him less but it would at least tell me that he has not been acting with partners during this time.
I'd also like to note that we have to keep in mind the players that aren't really affected by all of this. Timeasis, Darryl, roytheone, and squidyj are all people that don't have strong threads to the death of either of these two players but we need to keep them in mind or we may end up chasing leads for awhile while scum hangs back. That being said, squidy did go in on Salva quick and did the same near the end of night 2 so he'd be less likely to be scum if Salva flips scum but I don't see it as a full clear yet. Also, we should keep Prodigy in mind at all times. We assume he is fun-aligned based on the use of his power but you never know with this game.
After writing all of that out, I'm not sure I'd be on board with a no lynch vote after this little game concludes. We have leads to chase already and not pinning them down now just makes the list even bigger later. I am going to
UNVOTE
at this time though and wait to see the results of this game.
BLARG LOSES
Blarg is town: In this scenario, I'm more willing to look at the Launch is scum theory. I know that Blarg being town doesn't automatically mean he was right about Launch being scum but the reason I've been trusting of Launch is because I think Blarg has had nefarious motives from the start and that has kind of biased my opinion on how Launch has been acting. Note that if Blarg is a lost partner that isn't linked to the NFA chat then it would still allow me to revisit the Launch idea considering he would have no way of knowing who was fun-aligned and who was NFA aligned so his guess is as good as any.
Blarg is scum: For now, this would have me assume that Launch is town.I don't think a scum Blarg and scum Launch would have agreed to do such a heavy handed bus from the very beginning of the game and I doubly don't think that they would have kept the act going so strong once it was obvious that Fire got caught red handed yesterday.
Unfortunately, I can't glean much more from a Blarg flip. I still think he will flip as a lost partner but, otherwise, his main suspects and interests have been myself, Fire, Burb, and Launch. If he is scum, this is classic play of building a suspect list using one of your own partners. If he is town, then this is just a basic suspect list, I understand why all 4 of those players could come off as suspicious so not much to glean.
SALVA LOSES
Salva is town: This would be my least favorite result out of the 4 possibilities. A world where Salva loses and flips town tells us nothing. His main suspects have been cabot which makes sense in an effort to remove an unknown variable and Blarg which makes sense for the same reason. I am using this as evidence to think that he was trying to buy Fire an extra day but if Salva is just town, well then he was just inadvertently protecting scum but that happens in the game. I can't say I'd glean anything new from this.
Salva is scum: This would clear cabot for me easily. Salva did not hold any punches here so he had no problems if the vote swung towards cabot and that doesn't read as both of them being scum. I also don't worry about cabot being recruitable in any way because claiming miller would not be the way to draw attention to yourself. It's a claim that serves to basically make it so the scum leave you alone and wait for the town to do the dirty on you. This would also clear Blarg to me of being full NFA-aligned. My main theory is he is/was still a lost partner so that doesn't make me want to vote for him less but it would at least tell me that he has not been acting with partners during this time.
I'd also like to note that we have to keep in mind the players that aren't really affected by all of this. Timeasis, Darryl, roytheone, and squidyj are all people that don't have strong threads to the death of either of these two players but we need to keep them in mind or we may end up chasing leads for awhile while scum hangs back. That being said, squidy did go in on Salva quick and did the same near the end of night 2 so he'd be less likely to be scum if Salva flips scum but I don't see it as a full clear yet. Also, we should keep Prodigy in mind at all times. We assume he is fun-aligned based on the use of his power but you never know with this game.
After writing all of that out, I'm not sure I'd be on board with a no lynch vote after this little game concludes. We have leads to chase already and not pinning them down now just makes the list even bigger later. I am going to
UNVOTE
at this time though and wait to see the results of this game.
theprodigy
Member
Assuming they redo it if they get down to one like in the actual game, it's 40% on the first cycle for the player who goes second as well.
True but (and I'm going off of memory here) didn't a lot of his suspicion on you go away when you claimed miller? Seemed like the appropriate reaction given the circumstances at the time so I can't say if it meant much.
LaunchpadMcQ
Banned
Too many scenarios where I'm scum, 1/10.
Get back in the puppy play pen.
LaunchpadMcQ
Banned
I do, which is why I will say no more. Where's Salva though? I feel like we are forced to a standstill here while we wait.
given the current situation, if they rebuild on 1
25% chance for blarg to just win on salva's next pick.
25% chance for blarg to lose on his next pick.
25% chance for blarg to win on salva's 2nd pick
25% chance for the game to rebuild
so now blarg has a 50% chance to win and a 25% chance to lose and a 25% chance to carry on for a cycle.
25% chance for blarg to just win on salva's next pick.
25% chance for blarg to lose on his next pick.
25% chance for blarg to win on salva's 2nd pick
25% chance for the game to rebuild
so now blarg has a 50% chance to win and a 25% chance to lose and a 25% chance to carry on for a cycle.
We are playing this:
That is right, to make it fair for both parties, is going to be a game of pure, unadultered, dumb luck.
I need CzarTim for this one, or another trustworthy moderator that can be our judge for this game.
The premise is simple. Our moderator chooses one of the five detonators to be the bad one, while the other 4 are duds. Only the moderator will know which one is the BOOM one.
We take turns picking them. As I was the one making the challenge, I´ll let you blargonaut to choose if you want to go first or second, and from there we go one/one.
Now we just have to decide if the loser can be mod killed or just vote for himself. I´ll rather modkilled, but that really depends on what Czar thinks about it and if its allowed or not. Either way, we are going to have some fun!
Salva said they are playing this mario party mini game specifically and the plungers reset if the detonator is not chosen after 4 are picked, a new color would be chosen, and they continue on.
Correct.
theprodigy
Member
Not really, it's 40% to win and 40% to lose at the start of a cycle either way.
So this is why Mario Party makes everyone crazy when they play it.
I'm not saying the overall probability is different but I'd prefer to eat the 20% chance to just lose at the start and go the rest of the cycle in a superior position.
