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[Mafia] NX Launch Night |OT| Back of the Line!

L

LaunchpadMcQ

Banned
cabot said:
I have slowly lost confidence in my opinion of Darryl as the day has went on.

I'm also thinking his flip could help me better determine Launch going into the endgame.

I hate myself.
Click to expand...

I was going to say something, but I didn't, though I guess now I should.

If we mislynch today, I think a lot of people are going to be revisiting me tomorrow and that's going to be disastrous because we'll be in MyLo tomorrow. I'm really, really pushing that you guys think about hard about your decision today.
 
T

Timeaisis

Member
Here's an updated list, for your viewing pleasure.

Top scum
cabot: Timeaisis, LaunchpadMcQ
Sorian: roytheone, Timeaisis
LaunchpadMcQ: roytheone, Darryl
Darryl: LaunchpadMcQ, Timeaisis
roytheone: Darryl, Timeaisis
Lone_Prodigy: Roy, Darryl, and Time.
Timeaisis: roytheone, Darryl

So either some serious bussing is going on or I'm not scum. ;)
 
L

LaunchpadMcQ

Banned
Has anyone given any thought to my previously being a commuter, yet Darryl is a bulletproof? There's something there, but I'm not sure what it is.
 
S

Sorian

Banned
LaunchpadMcQ said:
Has anyone given any thought to my previously being a commuter, yet Darryl is a bulletproof? There's something there, but I'm not sure what it is.
Click to expand...

What thought should we give to it? You weren't supposed to be a commuter, according to you, you either were never supposed to be a commuter or you were changed from commuter to sleepwalker shortly into the game. Either scenario leads to the same scenario though, I could see town having a limited BP member.
 
L

LaunchpadMcQ

Banned
Timeaisis said:
I'm not sure I follow.
Click to expand...

Sorian said:
What thought should we give to it? You weren't supposed to be a commuter, according to you, you either were never supposed to be a commuter or you were changed from commuter to sleepwalker shortly into the game. Either scenario leads to the same scenario though, I could see town having a limited BP member.
Click to expand...

image.php
 
S

Sorian

Banned
roy is down to 1 vote right now right? Because Launch moved to Darryl? (I only ask that because I put out the hammer bait yesterday, not offering it again). Yeah, sorry man but this is the one I'm feeling.

VOTE: roytheone

I was thinking Time and I still am but my biggest issue is that I think there are too few ordinary kid claims so I think scum is mixed in with the remaining PRs. I know what I am, I'm fairly certain I know what L_P is, and I'm basically naked out in the cold trusting Cabot's miller claim so that leaves Launch, roy, and Darryl and I trust roy's claim the least.
 
R

roytheone

Member
FUCK, i just realized something. Please don't turbo me yet, I made a huge miscalculation when I looked at what a misslynch would mean.
 
L

LaunchpadMcQ

Banned
Sorian said:
I'm not expecting game changing information here but no reason to have him sit at hammer time, especially if he might have something important to say.
Click to expand...

I am surprised you gleaned all this information from one off-hand comment lol

I'm just making sure he doesn't get turbo'd
 
R

roytheone

Member
Alright, so, if you guys lynch me today (or any other towny for that matter), we are going to be in misslynch--> lose tomorrow, right?

WRONG, if you lynch me or any towny today, we are going to LOSE.

In my calculation, I said a misslynch would lead to a 2 VS 3 situation. NO IT WOULD NOT!
Sorian is not town, he is neutral! I completely forgot that. And his win condition is to make it to the end, it doesn't matter if scum or town wins! So what happens if we misslynch today:

We have 2 town, 2 scum and 1 neutral that wins if he survives to the end. What do you think the neutral is going to do? Going to try and lynch a scum and risk getting night killed? No, of course not. Sorian wants to win! If he is smart, and he is!, he would just step out, ask who the Scum is, scum will step into the light, the three of them vote for one of the two remaining townies and BAM, Sorian and scum wins! AND THERE IS NOTHING TOWN CAN DO ABOUT IT, NOTHING.

A misslynch today is actively in Sorian his best interest! He will not get night killed because the scum would recognize this action as Sorian switching his alignment! And then they all, scum+sorian, will just step out in the open tomorrow and win. It is the safest way for Sorian to win! Sorian was pro town....up till now! Now it is better for him to switch sides! It minimizes the risk of getting NK and assures he wins tomorrow! HE IS NOW WORKING FOR THE SCUM!
 
C

cabot

Member
I knew Sorian was neutral and just assumed you'd counted him as town, but the point you raise is a valid one. There's nothing stopping Sorian from switching sides when there's a clear advantage to either scum or town.

A dire situation.
 
S

Sorian

Banned
Yup, he's not wrong. Today is really your last day to hit scum. I have been town up until today and if you've noticed, I've been bandwagoning whatever vote has been happening and then unvoting when it gets to 3 (when I notice, roy sat at 3 for a long time yesterday and I played it off but I didn't intend for that). There are 6 of you left and you have to hit scum today, we've hit a point where the results of the vote don't actually matter to me, but that doesn't change the fact that you only have one shot at it. You could lynch me today but then you 100% miss scum and still only have that one chance tomorrow. The upside to keeping me alive is if you do hit scum today then I am in your pocket to help lynch the last one tomorrow or the next day.
 
T

Timeaisis

Member
roytheone said:
Alright, so, if you guys lynch me today (or any other towny for that matter), we are going to be in misslynch--> lose tomorrow, right?

WRONG, if you lynch me or any towny today, we are going to LOSE.

In my calculation, I said a misslynch would lead to a 2 VS 3 situation. NO IT WOULD NOT!
Sorian is not town, he is neutral! I completely forgot that. And his win condition is to make it to the end, it doesn't matter if scum or town wins! So what happens if we misslynch today:

We have 2 town, 2 scum and 1 neutral that wins if he survives to the end. What do you think the neutral is going to do? Going to try and lynch a scum and risk getting night killed? No, of course not. Sorian wants to win! If he is smart, and he is!, he would just step out, ask who the Scum is, scum will step into the light, the three of them vote for one of the two remaining townies and BAM, Sorian and scum wins! AND THERE IS NOTHING TOWN CAN DO ABOUT IT, NOTHING.

A misslynch today is actively in Sorian his best interest! He will not get night killed because the scum would recognize this action as Sorian switching his alignment! And then they all, scum+sorian, will just step out in the open tomorrow and win. It is the safest way for Sorian to win! Sorian was pro town....up till now! Now it is better for him to switch sides! It minimizes the risk of getting NK and assures he wins tomorrow! HE IS NOW WORKING FOR THE SCUM!
Click to expand...

Good point. That is if we have 2 scum for sure. Which I do think so. But we may only have one.

The other thing is...we can't really lynch Sorian. I mean, we can. But we'd hit a neutral (probably, unless Sorian is actually scum). Which would make it best case 3 town vs 1 mafia tomorrow and worst case 2 town vs 2 mafia tomorrow. Either way, it's mylo.

Our best bet is to go with our best bet for scum today. So, yes, your points are very, very valid, but it doesn't really change our strategy today. We still have to hit mafia.
 
S

Sorian

Banned
If anything though, I don't need to keep up pretenses anymore, my vote will only be used from this point on to end a tie. So town, I'd recommend you don't force a tie unless you want the dirty neutral to make the choices for you.
 
C

cabot

Member
I don't think more time will help this, if anything my convinctions have weakened and I'm even more uncertain over the span of this day.

Can't help to feel you'd just take some satisfaction on making sure Sorian doesn't win, Launch :p
 
S

Sorian

Banned
LaunchpadMcQ said:
We lynch Sorian today, we have more time to make a choice. What's more, we'll have less suspects as mafia will kill another one of us.
Click to expand...

You also have less votes overall. Tomorrow would put you at 3 town, 2 scum with only 3 needed for the hammer. It's a weak position because if anyone votes wrong for even a small amount of time then scum can end the day. You can go for me but the smarter play is to try to hit the scum today instead of tomorrow. Actually hitting today makes it 3 town, 1 scum, 1 neutral tomorrow and the neutral would be voting with you and actively trying to kill the scum again.
 
L

Lone_Prodigy

Member
One more thing I realized about Darryl being bulletproof: of course there's the mafia play of claiming bulletproof so you're guaranteed to survive the night (because scum don't kill themselves). But if he was town, and realizing the dire situation we're in, why not tease a PR to get scum to target him? He claimed before roy and had the chance to make something up. A wasted scum kill tonight would've been invaluable.
 
L

LaunchpadMcQ

Banned
cabot said:
I don't think more time will help this, if anything my convinctions have weakened and I'm even more uncertain over the span of this day.

Can't help to feel you'd just take some satisfaction on making sure Sorian doesn't win, Launch :p
Click to expand...

Maybe... but you forget we'll have less suspects, too.

Sorian said:
You also have less votes overall. Tomorrow would put you at 3 town, 2 scum with only 3 needed for the hammer. It's a weak position because if anyone votes wrong for even a small amount of time then scum can end the day. You can go for me but the smarter play is to try to hit the scum today instead of tomorrow. Actually hitting today makes it 3 town, 1 scum, 1 neutral tomorrow and the neutral would be voting with you and actively trying to kill the scum again.
Click to expand...

We can control the situation tomorrow.
 
C

cabot

Member
Lone_Prodigy said:
One more thing I realized about Darryl being bulletproof: of course there's the mafia play of claiming bulletproof so you're guaranteed to survive the night (because scum don't kill themselves). But if he was town, and realizing the dire situation we're in, why not tease a PR to get scum to target him? He claimed before roy and had the chance to make something up. A wasted scum kill tonight would've been invaluable.
Click to expand...

He's too suspicious, it would be pointless even trying to kill him at this stage if he is town.
 
S

Sorian

Banned
LaunchpadMcQ said:
We can control the situation tomorrow.
Click to expand...

No more than you can today and I'd actually contend that you'd have a harder time tomorrow. The two scum can coordinate secretly and they need not fear voting together and causing a turbo situation because they win right when they pull that off. Today, they don't have that power and they'll have to think twice before voting together and might even have to bus one of their own.
 
T

Timeaisis

Member
Sorian said:
You also have less votes overall. Tomorrow would put you at 3 town, 2 scum with only 3 needed for the hammer. It's a weak position because if anyone votes wrong for even a small amount of time then scum can end the day. You can go for me but the smarter play is to try to hit the scum today instead of tomorrow. Actually hitting today makes it 3 town, 1 scum, 1 neutral tomorrow and the neutral would be voting with you and actively trying to kill the scum again.
Click to expand...

True, but if we miss today we're at 2 town, 2 scum and 1 neutral. Roy has got a point that you'd probably just side with scum to ensure you survive.
 
S

Sorian

Banned
Timeaisis said:
True, but if we miss today we're at 2 town, 2 scum and 1 neutral. Roy has got a point that you'd probably just side with scum to ensure you survive.
Click to expand...

You are 100% correct. The only real secret I was keeping today (which wasn't really a secret, I find it hard to believe that roy was the first to notice it) is that you were really at mylo today and not tomorrow. That doesn't change the fact that town's votes hold more power today than they do tomorrow. Killing me and then trying to coordinate 3 town to vote for the same person tomorrow is going to be near impossible, one mistaken vote and scum would turbo and win.
 
C

cabot

Member
I feel like we're huddling round a fire, friend and foe alike. Realizing the toll this has all taken on us.

I'm stealing all your marshmallows before I await the great light, suckers.
 
L

Lone_Prodigy

Member
Timeaisis said:
Here's an updated list, for your viewing pleasure.

Top scum
cabot: Timeaisis, LaunchpadMcQ
Sorian: roytheone, Timeaisis
LaunchpadMcQ: roytheone, Darryl
Darryl: LaunchpadMcQ, Timeaisis
roytheone: Darryl, Timeaisis
Lone_Prodigy: Roy, Darryl, and Time.
Timeaisis: roytheone, Darryl

So either some serious bussing is going on or I'm not scum. ;)
Click to expand...

From this list, everyone thinks two of these four are scum:

Launch
Time
roy
Darryl

Scenario 1: We lynch one of them, we hit town. One of cabot or me (the two townies pretty much above suspicion at this point) dies tonight.

That leaves 3 suspected scum, 1 of cabot or me, and Sorian. 2/3 chance of hitting scum, but if we hit town we lose. We hit scum, we're left with 1 town, 1 scum, and 1 neutral. Is that a tie?

Scenario 2: We lynch, we hit scum. Cabot or me dies tonight. 1/3 chance of hitting scum tomorrow, same conditions as above.

Scenario 3: We lynch Sorian. Cabot or me dies tonight. 2/4 chance of hitting scum tomorrow, same conditions as above.
 
T

Timeaisis

Member
LaunchpadMcQ said:
Whoever is town and alive, do this because fuck Sorian
Click to expand...

Is it weird that I'm actually considering this as an option? Voting for Sorian today is like a wasted vote, imo. Voting someone else gives us a chance to at least hit scum today.

But if we mislynch today, roy points out that Sorian can just side with scum and win the game tomorrow at 3-2. Which is absolutely true.

So...
If we mislynch today we aren't mylo tomorrow if we all fakeclaim scum, then we all just go with our guts like we're doing now and hope for the best.
 
S

Sorian

Banned
roytheone said:
Is the voting spreadsheet fucked up for everyone else? It would be a very inopportune time for that thing to break down.
Click to expand...

It's not being updated, not sure where Tim is actually.

Lone_Prodigy said:
From this list, everyone thinks two of these four are scum:

Launch
Time
roy
Darryl

Scenario 1: We hit scum, we're left with 1 town, 1 scum, and 1 neutral. Is that a tie?
Click to expand...

This is not a tie, if you look back at FIre's win condition, it is for NFA-aligned to hold majority vote. Me being alive would prevent their win in that situation.
 
L

LaunchpadMcQ

Banned
Timeaisis said:
Is it weird that I'm actually considering this as an option? Voting for Sorian today is like a wasted vote, imo. Voting someone else gives us a chance to at least hit scum today.

But if we mislynch today, roy points out that Sorian can just side with scum and win the game tomorrow at 3-2. Which is absolutely true.

So...
If we mislynch today we aren't mylo tomorrow if we all fakeclaim scum, then we all just go with our guts like we're doing now and hope for the best.
Click to expand...

I'm actually looking forward to tomorrow now lololol
 
R

roytheone

Member
Can I get a voting update? sorian said he would choice if it is a tie, and I think he would go for a misslynch to make sure Scum doesn't NK him. Don't want that.
 
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