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[Mafia] NX Launch Night |OT| Back of the Line!
- Thread starter CzarTim
- Start date
LaunchpadMcQ
Banned
I'm not sure what I can say. Darryl has not given much to work with, other than a shitty roleclaim that doesn't fit the narrative of the others so far and him trying to squirm his way out of death D5. Everything else, I can do all kinds of mental gymnastics to try to justify them as mafia, and the same can be done to justify them as town. I can only speculate as to what's going on, but chances are at this point, with such few players left, that I'm right.
One thing I'll never forget about Darryl, though, is that even though he doesn't post much, he's usually around. He was insanely active on the mafia board in AC, but only posted in the main thread a quarter of that. I'm not going to go into activity talk, but that "Good morning" post from end of D5 was 100% bullshit.
One thing I'll never forget about Darryl, though, is that even though he doesn't post much, he's usually around. He was insanely active on the mafia board in AC, but only posted in the main thread a quarter of that. I'm not going to go into activity talk, but that "Good morning" post from end of D5 was 100% bullshit.
LaunchpadMcQ
Banned
Also, something I can offer up that may clear me, my actions have been way too uncalculated. Even though I exaggerated my thoughts through text, I was still feeling some of that. Everything I've done has been at a moments notice, no conferring with anyone. Just throwing ideas out without thinking. Would I have left so much of a trail Day 2, for example, if I had actually stopped to consider my posts? The entire point of overacting was to purposely not do this, after all. Also, another example, trying to get a last minute train on squidy going instead of voting Blarg. Why would I do that if I were going to kill him next phase?
Besides which, I've been doing the opposite of bandwagoning on votes. I've done a few hammers that were conscious to what might happen if I didn't (ex. ties), but by and large, I've expressed my uncertainties many times.
Lastly, I was indeed the one who started the voting on roy yesterday [with some actual correct reasoning]. I don't have the post, but it's the one with all the Phoenix Wright gifs (pg 81). Plus, I made the link between my role and Roy's - I cannot stress this part enough, because I was 100% correct on this. I moved around a bit because of some uncertainties, but Roy was my guy.
Besides which, I've been doing the opposite of bandwagoning on votes. I've done a few hammers that were conscious to what might happen if I didn't (ex. ties), but by and large, I've expressed my uncertainties many times.
Lastly, I was indeed the one who started the voting on roy yesterday [with some actual correct reasoning]. I don't have the post, but it's the one with all the Phoenix Wright gifs (pg 81). Plus, I made the link between my role and Roy's - I cannot stress this part enough, because I was 100% correct on this. I moved around a bit because of some uncertainties, but Roy was my guy.
LaunchpadMcQ
Banned
And I know you're not going to say Roy was a bus at that point, because the vote didn't even come down to him until the last 30 mins.
We could have another discussion too. We know that roy bussed Fire in the early moments of day 2 and never got off that bus. How do you think the last teammate would have handled the roy situation? We never really had clear information against roy so I think it's possible that the last teammate would not have bussed roy super early but would he have jumped on by the end?
---------
Alternatively, we can take a new look at this list:
1. cabbeh [m] - miller
2. TheGoddamn [m] --> Timeaisis [m] - ordinary (claim)
3. roytheone [m] - scum tracker
4. Darryl [-] - one shot bullet proof grandma (claim)
5. Sorian [m] neutral survivor (claim)
6. batsnacks [m] - town jailer
7. Fireblend [m] - scum jack of all trades
8. Karkador [m] - town cop
9. Burbeting [m] - town watcher
10. SalvaPot [m] - ordinary
11. Ourobolus [m] - ordinary
12. LaunchpadMcQ [m] - sleepwalker (claim)
13. Lone_Prodigy [m] - one shot day vig (confirmed) town-aligned (claim)
14. Blargonaut [m] - ordinary
15. RetroMG [m] --> squidyj [m] - ordinary
Like we said yesterday, that's 5 ordinaries. Too little or just right? Answering that is important because I'm pretty certain now the last scum is just a goon, no PR. So if that's a good number of ordinaries then Time might be our guy, Fire lied by using his own role, roy lied about using his own role, maybe Time did the same? On the flip side, maybe 6 ordinaries is a better number? If so then Darryl or Launch made up claims that had, effectively, explained why neither have been night killed. Darryl's claim literally makes it so he can't have been night killed and Launch's is suspicious shit so scum would want us to do the dirty work on him.
These are just things to think about and discuss. I'm not going to get to the answer on my own so I'm trying to put out data so I can get some input/
---------
Alternatively, we can take a new look at this list:
1. cabbeh [m] - miller
2. TheGoddamn [m] --> Timeaisis [m] - ordinary (claim)
3. roytheone [m] - scum tracker
4. Darryl [-] - one shot bullet proof grandma (claim)
5. Sorian [m] neutral survivor (claim)
6. batsnacks [m] - town jailer
7. Fireblend [m] - scum jack of all trades
8. Karkador [m] - town cop
9. Burbeting [m] - town watcher
10. SalvaPot [m] - ordinary
11. Ourobolus [m] - ordinary
12. LaunchpadMcQ [m] - sleepwalker (claim)
13. Lone_Prodigy [m] - one shot day vig (confirmed) town-aligned (claim)
14. Blargonaut [m] - ordinary
15. RetroMG [m] --> squidyj [m] - ordinary
Like we said yesterday, that's 5 ordinaries. Too little or just right? Answering that is important because I'm pretty certain now the last scum is just a goon, no PR. So if that's a good number of ordinaries then Time might be our guy, Fire lied by using his own role, roy lied about using his own role, maybe Time did the same? On the flip side, maybe 6 ordinaries is a better number? If so then Darryl or Launch made up claims that had, effectively, explained why neither have been night killed. Darryl's claim literally makes it so he can't have been night killed and Launch's is suspicious shit so scum would want us to do the dirty work on him.
These are just things to think about and discuss. I'm not going to get to the answer on my own so I'm trying to put out data so I can get some input/
I'm considering your other post and I'll respond to it after I get more work done but you know that phoenix wright post of your was vote 3 of 4 on roy right? I mean yes, I was flip flopping around purposely but I don't think you guys noticed that and Time was securely on roy for the most of the day. So true, I wouldn't say it was really ready for a bus yet but I wouldn't say you started the voting on roy.
LaunchpadMcQ
Banned
With correct reasoning, I said. As in something tangible.
LaunchpadMcQ
Banned
I think the more concerning topic here is why you aren't sold on Darryl. His claim was ass. It was just bad. Then I called him out on it, and he came back with "oh no, it's actually got more".
Here's what I think is actually happening, and why we haven't seen this 3rd mafia ability yet. It's a passive/reactionary ability. If I were to hedge my bets, I would say it probably activates when the mafia player is killed and they get like 2 night kills or something. Darryl came into D5 acting suspicious as all hell. Roy even said that Darryl was acting obviously suspicious, which was likely an attempt to draw attention to it so we'd lynch Darryl and Roy would get this power-up. He was trying to get lynched yesterday, is the gist of this, and the way to make yourself look just suspicious enough is to make up an almost believable roleclaim that the town will debate over, and eventually lynch due to lack of anything better. However, the backfire here happened because of Roy's claim bringing so much attention to himself and not always being able to predict how a town will react.
Here's what I think is actually happening, and why we haven't seen this 3rd mafia ability yet. It's a passive/reactionary ability. If I were to hedge my bets, I would say it probably activates when the mafia player is killed and they get like 2 night kills or something. Darryl came into D5 acting suspicious as all hell. Roy even said that Darryl was acting obviously suspicious, which was likely an attempt to draw attention to it so we'd lynch Darryl and Roy would get this power-up. He was trying to get lynched yesterday, is the gist of this, and the way to make yourself look just suspicious enough is to make up an almost believable roleclaim that the town will debate over, and eventually lynch due to lack of anything better. However, the backfire here happened because of Roy's claim bringing so much attention to himself and not always being able to predict how a town will react.
LaunchpadMcQ
Banned
Hey, HEY, do you know how hard it was to distill day 2 into a readable chunk? THAT WAS THE DAY BLARG WENT INSANE. That was rough going for awhile.
LaunchpadMcQ
Banned
QUACKQUACKQUACK
I mean, yes, I will fully admit that claims that come out in smaller chunks usually look bad. If someone is going to role claim, I much prefer they do it right. What's the flavor name? What's the ability? What's a bit of flavor from the description? If your ability involves doing action, what have you done each night? And yes, Darryl drip fed it to us. He only gave us the name and ability. Then I had to ask (twice) why grandma was one shot bulletproof then after answering that, he also finally also told us that little timmy would love his new NX and his copy of nintendoland.
LaunchpadMcQ
Banned
The name he gave us was Hayden, and that sounds like a name someone named Darryl would come up with. The evidence is pretty damning if you ask me.
I'm aware of the name he gave, I was hoping he would come and correct me though. Come on now, how am I supposed to summon him if you never give him anything to say?
LaunchpadMcQ
Banned
Lol you know how many times I've said something to bait someone and you come in and answer?
Yeah yeah, whatever. Your bait isn't as good as mine though. Obviously.
QUACKQUACK
idk
LaunchpadMcQ
Banned
Screw you spectator thread, I know what y'all are saying about us!
Alright well, I think you paint a pretty clear picture that you believe myself, Launch and Darryl are all suspect.
A few things to defend myself:
- I voted Sorian because I felt strongly that someone was lying and Sorian seemed (at the time) the likely liar. I can see that wasn't the best thought out vote now. I also had just entered the game.
- My vote for Fire came after Blarg admitted hew was full of shit. It made a lot more sense and, in my mind: made Sorian look like less of a liar and Fire more like a killer. I will admit, it did look a little bandwagon-y.
Well, that's my defense. I don't think there's anything overly scummy I've done. I was just getting into the game when the Blarg vs Fire debate was in full force, so I was kind of getting my bearings.
As for who's my biggest suspect out of Launch and Darryl...well, it's still Darryl. Darryl points out not only that Fire could've switched, but proded Sorian whether or not he could lick himself. And he keeps coming up with alternatives for what could've happened other than Fire being the killer. Fire having switched successfully even after Blarg's gambit or Burb being the true mafia instead of Sorian and Fire.
This reads like late-day misdirection or a last ditch effort to save Fireblend. Remember he was just on about Sorian being our guy before.
Then, like an hour later (maybe when he finally caught up with the thread), he votes Fire and parrots some obvious reasoning for it.
The most interesting thing, to me, however. Is this post...
Myself and Darryl are both listed as top scum for roy, which doesn't make any damn sense. Roy is scum so he should be protecting other scum? This kind of makes Darryl look less scummy here. Surely roy wouldn't just call out Darryl as his top scum so easily, would he?
A few things to defend myself:
- I voted Sorian because I felt strongly that someone was lying and Sorian seemed (at the time) the likely liar. I can see that wasn't the best thought out vote now. I also had just entered the game.
- My vote for Fire came after Blarg admitted hew was full of shit. It made a lot more sense and, in my mind: made Sorian look like less of a liar and Fire more like a killer. I will admit, it did look a little bandwagon-y.
Well, that's my defense. I don't think there's anything overly scummy I've done. I was just getting into the game when the Blarg vs Fire debate was in full force, so I was kind of getting my bearings.
As for who's my biggest suspect out of Launch and Darryl...well, it's still Darryl. Darryl points out not only that Fire could've switched, but proded Sorian whether or not he could lick himself. And he keeps coming up with alternatives for what could've happened other than Fire being the killer. Fire having switched successfully even after Blarg's gambit or Burb being the true mafia instead of Sorian and Fire.
This reads like late-day misdirection or a last ditch effort to save Fireblend. Remember he was just on about Sorian being our guy before.
Then, like an hour later (maybe when he finally caught up with the thread), he votes Fire and parrots some obvious reasoning for it.
The most interesting thing, to me, however. Is this post...
Myself and Darryl are both listed as top scum for roy, which doesn't make any damn sense. Roy is scum so he should be protecting other scum? This kind of makes Darryl look less scummy here. Surely roy wouldn't just call out Darryl as his top scum so easily, would he?
LaunchpadMcQ
Banned
Hey guys, I think LP's brownies might be getting to me.
What if one of us is mafia and we don't even know it?
What if one of us is mafia and we don't even know it?
He most certainly could. Anytime anyone asked me while I was still alive, I said Nin was one of my top scum in cthulhu game. It depends on the player, there is reasoning to paint a teammate as very town or as very scummy. The least likely scenario though is to just never mention a teammate at all, that just doesn't seem to happen because you always feel the need to do something to interact with your teammates, either to protect them or distance yourself from them. roy wasn't allowed to talk about Fire in that post so I'm confident that one of the 4 people he mentioned was the last teammate. That doesn't tell us much anymore today but that's why I also asked what people thought about whether he would paint his teammate as top town or top scum.
LaunchpadMcQ
Banned
Ok let me pocket that theory for if we don't get mafia today lol
Too hairbrained
Too hairbrained
It's kind of hilarious to me that myself, Darryl and Launch are all on there. It's as if he knew it would come down to us.
Going back to this post that Time mentioned just now (this is where Darryl flipped and jumped on that Fire bandwagon after catching up with the thread). Crazy thought, but let's say Darryl is the scum and he really was indisposed this entire time. From the PoV of the thread, he missed the entirety of the Blarg gambit because he didn't post that entire time. Let's say he was away from the scum thread during that time as well. Does the bolded read as Darryl berating Fire a little bit for not taking the opportunity when he had the chance?
I noticed it on my read through last night and I do find it interesting that he was really sold on me being dishonest but still went for Fire only because he seemed to have given up. A lot of people did that though, the bandwagon went to Fire and left me out in the cold, which was great for me at the time but doesn't tell me much looking back on it.
LaunchpadMcQ
Banned
I don't believe this to be true. If he wasn't posting, it was on purpose. The mafia must have known somewhat that Blarg's claim was bullshit because of Roy's ability (assuming he was telling the truth about how he used his ability), so Darryl may have been waiting for the dust to settle, then appear to come in late.
Also, Sorian, I don't think you give Darryl enough credit. He's actually very clever.
Not even somewhat, I'm 100% convinced that scum knew Blarg was making up a story. Even if roy didn't actually track Blarg on night 1, he did track someone and he saw that he wasn't on Burb's report so he knew no lightning rod thing happened night 1 which, by extension, means that scum team had NO reason to actually believe the claim though they may have feigned ignorance during the gambit.
And no, don't worry, I'm aware that no one playing is dumb in any way. That thing I bolded still reads as a snide comment, we could also take it to mean that Fire was the one that disappeared for awhile and scum team was trying to convince him to take advantage of the Blarg situation more and he never did.
LaunchpadMcQ
Banned
You're misunderstanding me. Just like we weren't sure of the mechanics of the game on D2, and just like we're not sure where Burb ended up on N1, the mafia could have been unsure as to what was really going on even if they had some proof. I had some proof that the lightning rod was untrue, as well, yet it didn't make anyone really sure about it, either.
Scum team had 3 people to discuss this. I think they would have been more sure of their conclusion. roy also seemed pretty sure of what happened just by himself based on what he said in the thread, he backtracked a few times but he always immediately came back to Blarg must be lying within a few posts and his "uncertainty" read more (to me and in hindsight) as him trying to get us to waver on Blarg just enough that it would make sense if he dropped his vote from Fire and put it on Blarg in hope of seeing his flip and knowing for sure one way or another what was really happening. Blarg coming in and going "Fuck it, I lied" in the final hours messed up any shot of that plan though.
LaunchpadMcQ
Banned
I wholly disagree. Anyone who is absolutely sure of anything in this game, regardless of alignment, is either a liar or an idiot. They were probably only slightly less confused than we were.
Lone_Prodigy
Member
After reading Sorian's giant D2 post, I was starting to think Time was our last scum.
Now, after reading the posts this morning, I'm swinging back towards Darryl.
Yes, Time being an ordinary fits the role distribution, but this is a game with overpowered mafia. Why not buff town a bit by lowering the number of ordinaries?
And there's also last night to consider. Why kill cabot instead of me? cabot did a last-minute vote on Launchpad. My vote was on roy but I was telling everyone to gun for Darryl if I bit it. Now look at the day so far: not exactly a lot of suspicion on Launch (then again he's posting at Sorian levels so he's not going to self-implicate).
I'm still undecided on Darryl or Time. To the actual scum, kudos for playing so well. Then again, I never thought town would be a situation to win after how badly we've played haha.
Now, after reading the posts this morning, I'm swinging back towards Darryl.
Yes, Time being an ordinary fits the role distribution, but this is a game with overpowered mafia. Why not buff town a bit by lowering the number of ordinaries?
And there's also last night to consider. Why kill cabot instead of me? cabot did a last-minute vote on Launchpad. My vote was on roy but I was telling everyone to gun for Darryl if I bit it. Now look at the day so far: not exactly a lot of suspicion on Launch (then again he's posting at Sorian levels so he's not going to self-implicate).
I'm still undecided on Darryl or Time. To the actual scum, kudos for playing so well. Then again, I never thought town would be a situation to win after how badly we've played haha.
LaunchpadMcQ
Banned
This is actually a very good point. This makes me look pretty bad.
LaunchpadMcQ
Banned
Oh, and Darryl has suddenly come off trying to vote me today in this day phase. It's strange because he didn't have much in the way of a well-reasoned argument against me, suddenly he's not buying when the squidy and cabot kills actually provide some evidence against me.
Did I say strange? I meant bizarre as fuck.
Did I say strange? I meant bizarre as fuck.
I agree that this is something worth thinking about. I would have killed you if I were scum because cabot being alive was probably the most likely to lead to 4 suspicious characters today instead of 3. The fear that he wasn't really a miller was always there but I think you've been tabled from scum talks because it's just so unlikely that a day kill was done by scum. cabot was chosen for a reason and the reason is obvious. Scum has been trying to frame Launch for two days now but then it goes right back to how obvious it is so it could just as easily be Launch doing the killing, thinking we won't take the bait, and that we'd actually distance ourselves from the bait instead.
Lone_Prodigy
Member
How messed up is it that the only person I trust is a licking neutral cow?
I haven't seen anything terribly incriminating so I'm going back to my original gut, which was Darryl as town and Time as scum. If I'm right, we win. If I'm wrong, I die tonight and Darryl and Launch can go to sudden death with a cow hammer.
I've heard all I need to from Time. Would like to hear from Darryl before I vote. Until then, I'm eating the rest of my brownies.
I haven't seen anything terribly incriminating so I'm going back to my original gut, which was Darryl as town and Time as scum. If I'm right, we win. If I'm wrong, I die tonight and Darryl and Launch can go to sudden death with a cow hammer.
I've heard all I need to from Time. Would like to hear from Darryl before I vote. Until then, I'm eating the rest of my brownies.
Of course I questioned his claim and prodded. I was onto Launch/Sorian very early on, very obviously. I've held everything they did to scrutiny. I obviously considered a scenario where Fireblend was town. Go back to that day and I wasn't even the first person to ask that question. Launch did.
You end your post with a question with an obvious answer. Manipulation.
I've never lied about my activity in this game. Ever. Mafia is a post-in-phone-time activity. The post rate was way too high early game. Also, I'm sitting in Bangkok airport if you need to know why I haven't posted since the day started and why I voted early. I thought the game would end before I got off. Sitting here waiting on a train to open. I hate to even talk about this stuff as a factor in whether or not I'm scum.
LaunchpadMcQ
Banned
You almost had me.
I probably would have said something earlier but there were distractions and things just didn't add up as it was. I didn't have time to look around the edges when there were clowns in the middle. At this point the idea that the game is being led by the highly active seems dumb. It is too big of a mess and now 2 mafia have been caught. It was obviously not their strategy.
Do you find it odd that Time was the first person to put a real vote down on roy yesterday (by giving a reason, I was first but my vote was accompanied by a forceful demand that he role claim) and he never removed that vote?
Lone_Prodigy
Member
I was looking through yesterday's posts too. Time suspects roy more than Darryl. But he also goes "you can lynch me but you'll see when I flip town". I'm getting a "the pool of suspects is too small, let's bus each other so the other gets away" vibe.
If we lynched Time yesterday and he flipped scum, we'd be inclined to believe roy since Time went so hard after him. But we lynched roy and he flipped scum.
Hmm food for thought.
I read it backwards and if Time were scum it would have read to me like he thought it was game over and he was being bussed, but the script flipped after he heavily committed himself
I don't know how much I can do to defend myself other than say I've willfully voted for both scum. That, and I was pretty intense on lynching roy yesterday. Even aftr his roleclaim, I still went hard on him. I think that speaks for itself that I'm town.
I realize I'm very middle-of-the-road, just like Fire and roy were, but that's how I play. The only time I've been passionate this entire game has been yesterday about roy and I ended up being right. Take that however you want it.
I realize I'm very middle-of-the-road, just like Fire and roy were, but that's how I play. The only time I've been passionate this entire game has been yesterday about roy and I ended up being right. Take that however you want it.
I honestly think the answer is Time. I think the final ace in the hole yesterday was roy "suddenly" having the epiphany that I was a neutral and would vote with scum today if they both made it through day 4. This wasn't an epiphany at all. They both voted for each other with the escape plan being that they would cause last minute suspicion on me if it wasn't going their way. They lined their votes up on each other early so they would look good if one of them did end up flipping but the real hope was that they could set me up to be the lynch target in the last hour if votes weren't straying to someone else like Launch or Darryl.
The set up
All according to keikaku
The pitch
.......and Launch fucks it up by throwing caution to the wind and throwing a vote on someone that had no chance of winning the lynch at the time.
Plan fails and Time doubles down on his roy vote so he still gets those bonus points for staying strong on scum.
That's how I read yesterday, maybe I'm a fool.
The set up
All according to keikaku
The pitch
.......and Launch fucks it up by throwing caution to the wind and throwing a vote on someone that had no chance of winning the lynch at the time.
Plan fails and Time doubles down on his roy vote so he still gets those bonus points for staying strong on scum.
That's how I read yesterday, maybe I'm a fool.
LaunchpadMcQ
Banned
It doesn't look like Darryl is going down today, huh?
Sigh.
Sigh.
Then you're a fool, Sorian. You're mistake is that you believe scum are doing some crazy footwork here to stay alive when all they have to do is play under the radar. I pushed harder for roy yesterday than anyone and we got it. If you lynch me you're all going to kick yourself when you realize I have been playing in town's best interest the entire game.
I've voted two scum off. I made the swing for roy and knocked it out of the park. Do you really think this was some elaborate set-up plan to make me look good? You're argument is based on what you think the motivations of for scum and how you'd do it if you were really clever. My argument for roy and Darryl is that if it quacks like a duck and it looks like a duck it probably is a damn duck.
I've voted two scum off. I made the swing for roy and knocked it out of the park. Do you really think this was some elaborate set-up plan to make me look good? You're argument is based on what you think the motivations of for scum and how you'd do it if you were really clever. My argument for roy and Darryl is that if it quacks like a duck and it looks like a duck it probably is a damn duck.
You really think it's Darryl?