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[QuantumBro]

I'm reposting my thoughts, so it doesn't get lost on the last page. I've changed nothing, but if you don't believe me, feel free to double check.




Good news to johnnyquicknives, you are no longer my #1 suspect. I now suspect Kalor is Mafia.

The main reason for my suspicion is that you were the starting vote for Egruntz's lynching, so I decided to look at all of your posts in this thread.

Nothing big stood out on day 1, except for this post...

I've been between the two crowds but we could vote for an inactive person. We could wait until the weekend and select from a list of whoever hasn't posted from the start.

In terms of anyone being suspicious no-one has really stood out to me so far as we haven't had much to talk about.

A quick note, killing an inactive tourist only helps the Mafia win faster. There should be no reason anymore that we should kill an inactive member. You were also the first person to bring up the idea of killing an inactive member, but you did admit to this in your list that I will get to later.

After Barry died, you posted this...

It's a shame that we've lost Barry so early. His ability had the opportunity to be useful. I can think of possible three reasons for his death.

1. He pointed the blame at one or more of the mafia members and if he connected the dots once he could do it again.
2. It was a random kill.
3. They killed the one who was talking the most.

If the mafia does have special roles, we won't see that influence kills until Night 2 or todays lynching round since they should only be getting information now.

I've bolded the part I find confusing. How does you know the special roles did not get their information till then. I'd like for you to explain this, even if it's just misunderstanding on my part.

Then came the vote for Egruntz...

I have to agree with you on this. While some of the posts could be defined as "filler" others were normal actions for a game such as Palmer's unvote to let Barry post his thoughts.

I've been changing my mind a lot about who I suspect. egruntz seems like a experienced player and that factor makes me trust them and also suspect them at the same time. Reading their long post it just felt like accusing people purely because they have been actively posting in the thread.

Some people have mentioned throwing out votes so we can get voting habits so I'm going to vote now. I'm not committed to this vote so I'm willing to change it at any point but it is purely because I'm curious to see what other people would vote.

VOTE: egruntz

You look like you're only voting for egruntz because of what Timeaisis said. You also establish a defense in this post which is "I didn't think I would get him lynched, I only wanted to see how every one else would vote."

Someone even calls you out before the day is over...

I've been thinking my vote against egruntz and I've been between two minds.

On one hand he seemed to be accusing certain people of filler and not accusing others who also had filler.

On the other his later posts read like someone who is a town member and just want town to play at a "higher" level with less talk about mechanics and more about the actual accusation process. This is the line of thought I've been slowly coming around to when I read more of their posts.




I realize that being the first to vote for egruntz makes me appear suspicious and my reasoning throughout the game has been shallow but I voted purely based on what I thought at the time. I did mentionthat I was open to changing it and just wanted to see where peoples votes were but I understand why you suspect me. If egruntz turns out to be town I will bear the burden of starting the vote against them but I have a feeling that the vote would of went this way anyway.

You're quick on the defense here, especially since you don't know whether egruntz is Mafia or not. The bolded part is especially suspicious since it's saying,"I pretty sure egruntz is not Mafia, but you can't blame me if he dies, because he would've been lynched anyway."

So we lynch egruntz and he turns out to be an ordinary villager. You must be sorry about this...

The fact that Duress was likely attacked on the first night is interesting. If there are more killing roles besides the mafia it seems odd that both of them might of attacked Duress last night.

Of course with this particular point we can't do much else besides wait and see if more one person dies tomorrow.

or not. You just ignore that it happened and jump on the confusion bandwagon.

And that's everything I found that added suspicion. But I'd like to take a look at the list you made.

The idea of the vigilant tourist trying to push their MO in the day phase is interesting. Of course I was the first person to mention it but at the time I thought it was a good way of lynching on D1 and not harming a active player. I went through and found everyone who mentioned that they were in support of lynching an inactive and wrote anything noteworthy about their posts. I might be missing a few but I think I got everyone.

Lord of Castamere

traube (First person to agree with the idea of lynching an inactive)

Kalor (First to bring it up)

pants

Staydead

johnnyquicknives

I checked and found examples for all the people you listed. However, you did leave out one member, intentionally or not, Timeaisis.

This post is saying we should lynch an inactive member, without using those words...

They aren't guaranteed tourists, though. Not by a long shot. Just because they have been quiet and needed to be proded does not mean they aren't mafia. Lurking is a legitimate mafia strategy.

I think lynching one of them makes the most sense, to be honest. We have the least to loose and the most cause for suspicion. Everyone else we've pointed fingers at lot more speculative and psychological.

Here's the possibilities if we lynch one of the non-participators
1) If they are town, they haven't really participated much anyway, so we haven't lost a valuable teammate
2) If they are mafia, hooray
3) They were a power role, shit

1 of these is good. 1 is neutral. 1 is bad.

Compare that with lynching anyone else that has seemed suspicious. Take, for example, nin, who lots of people seem suspicious of right now. If we lynch nin, here's the possibilities:
1) He was town. We lost an ally and someone who would've helped us ID scum by, at the very least, process of elimination.
2) He was mafia, woo
3) He was a power role, shit

2 of these are bad news. 1 is not.

Here's the important thing about accidentally lynching a townie that has not been participating: they aren't being proactive in the game. They may be "town" but they haven't done anything pro-town since the game started. Essentially, we wouldn't be lynching a teammate, we'd be lynching a bystander.

I know some were saying we could no-lynch day 2, but that's usually a pretty bad plan. Sure, we don't have a helluva lot of information, but there's no guarantee we'll have any more day 3 either, seeing as how we haven't heard from our power roles at all yet. If we keep sitting on our hands, mafia will just pick off those of us who are trying to move the game forward, and try to force us into a stalemate each day, which is the worst thing we can possibly do.

tomakasatnav has a total of three posts. One of which is an interest in the game starting. The second is saying he slept through day 1, and the third is saying he agrees with the no-lynch day one. That's it.

I say if we vote for anyone, it's him.

And with all that written down, I'm going to vote and eat some breakfast, it's going to be a long day.
VOTE: Kalor

 

[johnnyquicknives]

I checked and found examples for all the people you listed. However, you did leave out one member, intentionally or not, Timeaisis.

This post is saying we should lynch an inactive member, without using those words...

I was looking through the inactive posts as well and took this post by KingKitty on day 1 to be in favour of lynching an inactive as well.

well, if we lynch nobody, and the night round comes, we'll still probably lose 2-3 or however many depending on the size of the mafia. if they're proactive.

unless the mafia choose to not kill anyone for the first night phase, but honestly why wouldn't they?

we should crack an egg, and see where the yolk falls.

That said I don't necessarily see it as suspicious, more likely just an oversight with the quantity of posts, but if we're looking at that list then it would be best to have it as complete as possible.

 

[QuantumBro]

I was looking through the inactive posts as well and took this post by KingKitty on day 1 to be in favour of lynching an inactive as well.



That said I don't necessarily see it as suspicious, more likely just an oversight with the quantity of posts, but if we're looking at that list then it would be best to have it as complete as possible.

He only said that because he was confused about how the Mafia. Once someone explained they could only kill one person a night, he retracted...

i have but usually there was only like 2 mafia.

if mafia can only kill one person, then it's a different matter, and I would learn closer to no lynch.

 

[pants]

Lots of posts! Thanks for the analysis Foshy, I certainly concur with a lot of it.

The idea of the vigilant tourist trying to push their MO in the day phase is interesting. Of course I was the first person to mention it but at the time I thought it was a good way of lynching on D1 and not harming a active player. I went through and found everyone who mentioned that they were in support of lynching an inactive and wrote anything noteworthy about their posts. I might be missing a few but I think I got everyone.

Lord of Castamere

traube (First person to agree with the idea of lynching an inactive)

Kalor (First to bring it up)

pants

Staydead

johnnyquicknives

To be clear, lynching an inactive was a tertiary option for me, the past two days I have been for no lynch, I didnt exactly get my way night two, but then again I wasnt strongly vocal about it because I'm not 100% confident it's the best play.

 

[kingkitty]

I was looking through the inactive posts as well and took this post by KingKitty on day 1 to be in favour of lynching an inactive as well.



That said I don't necessarily see it as suspicious, more likely just an oversight with the quantity of posts, but if we're looking at that list then it would be best to have it as complete as possible.

i have but usually there was only like 2 mafia.

if mafia can only kill one person, then it's a different matter, and I would learn closer to no lynch.

you posted twice on the same page after this post of mine. but i guess there's a chance you didn't see this post, or just glanced over it.

several pages later you even mentioned me in one of your posts as voting no lynch.

I would point out that, although the votes hit fast, myself, foshy, traube and kingkitty had all been posting in the prior 45mins or so and you can see the progress towards the no lynch votes.

were you simply forgetting?

it's interesting how you say this about egruntz:

I'm not quite ready to string up egruntz yet. The main reason is that I find his posts really confusing rather than outright suspicious, like it just seems a strange tactic for the mafia to go for.

That said some of our quotes he posted were definitely deliberately manipulative, as have been outlined by myself and others above. Twisting people words out of the context they were posted in seems pretty shady for sure. He's probably got a pretty promising future in selecting and editing quotes for movie posters!

and yet you're doing the same thing

i wonder what egruntz saw that made him vote for you.

 

[kingkitty]

then again, i could just be overreacting, sort of like how some people may have jumped the gun when it came to egruntz

 

[StayDead]

I wanted to lynch an inactive. I only voted for egruntz when it was beyond the point of no return for him and I know that probably looks suss, but I thought it'd be better to vote and play the voting game as it were as I was active until then.

By the way I'm not moving now until 3 weeks time as the move dates been changed so I won't be as inactive as I thought.

 

[johnnyquicknives]

several pages later you even mentioned me in one of your posts as voting no lynch.



were you simply forgetting?

This is my bad, I'm certain I seen it at the time but I went back last night because I felt like more people had been mentioning lynching an inactive than Kalor had mentioned in the list (Guessing thats why Quantum also went back and ended up mentioning Timeasis).
When I did that I wasn't looking for retractions, because once more detailed posts started to came in a few of us moved away from that idea since we had more to go on. I should have spent more time looking though as your retraction was fast.
Again, it wasn't something I found suspicious just something that seemed missing from Kalors list.

i wonder what egruntz saw that made him vote for you.

This is what he said he found suspicious about me. It's worth continuing reading for the responses etc.

When he voted for me my gut feeling was that it was due to me saying this, which he refused to comment on. This was what ultimately cemented my position to vote for him, which I previously hadn't been ready to do as I mentioned in my final post that you quoted.

 

[Zatoth]

Quoting myself here. One of my thoughts on the second day:

Kalor, Timeaisis and Palmer: Palmer did not really seem to be offended by egruntz's post. But Kalor and Timeaisis both start do defend him and then all three of them vote to lynch egruntz.

I have a feeling that at least one of those three is Mafia. Maybe even all three of them. But voting together would make them suspicious.

So that is something the Mafia would probably not do. But being aware of that they may do exactly that.

 

[Palmer_v1]

Quoting myself here. One of my thoughts on the second day:

Kalor, Timeaisis and Palmer: Palmer did not really seem to be offended by egruntz's post. But Kalor and Timeaisis both start do defend him and then all three of them vote to lynch egruntz.

I have a feeling that at least one of those three is Mafia. Maybe even all three of them. But voting together would make them suspicious.

So that is something the Mafia would probably not do. But being aware of that they may do exactly that.

Egruntz never particularly offended me with his post. Obviously I'd prefer if people didn't attack me, but I'm in favor of any posts with thought and reasoning, however faulty, behind them. Gives us something to talk about. I do wonder about Timeaisis, Kalor, and johnny though. If they were mafia, they couldn't defend each other and ignore me without possibly causing further suspicion. Did they jump to my defense cause they had to?

Kalor never registered as town or mafia to me before today, so I still don't have strong feelings about him one way or another.

I was inclined to trust Timeaisis in Day 1 and 2, but I no longer feel as good about it.

johnnyquickknives I'm just not sure. I'm inclined to lynch him if only because both of our dead were calling him out. It might also shake things up regarding his associates, which could be detrimental to myself since they've been defending me.

As always, Irfaanator tops my list of people to lynch. He's gotten a bit quieter lately as well.

Vote: irfaanator

 

[Kalor]

I would of posted earlier but I haven't been at a computer until now and I felt like I should respond to some of QuantumBro's points. I can understand why I could be suspected since I was the first to vote for egruntz, accidentally excluded Timeaisis from the list and I have been quick to establish a defense.

I won't go through all of your points as some of the things that I said do read as suspicious but there's a few which I should talk about.

I've bolded the part I find confusing. How does you know the special roles did not get their information till then. I'd like for you to explain this, even if it's just misunderstanding on my part.

While I didn't know it for sure, I assumed that the special roles would choose to get information during the night and find out whenever the next day starts. I might be wrong on that but that was what I assumed at the time.

I checked and found examples for all the people you listed. However, you did leave out one member, intentionally or not, Timeaisis.

The way that I found people for the list was use ctrl-f and search by "inactiv" since that would cover inactivity and inactive. It meant that I might miss people but it was quicker than reading through Day 1 and Day 2.

 

[Timeaisis]

Just in response to suspicion on me, I'd like to point out that I brought up the charges against egruntz and then pretty soon afterwards voted for him. Kalor had no bearing on my vote, so I'd hardly say that we voted together. I was going to vote for Egruntz regardless. As for defending Palmer, well, I feel strongly that Palmer is town, so I'm going to defend him if he's accused.

That being said, I was obviously wrong about egruntz. Apologies on that front.

In regards to today, irfaanator is next on my suspect list, but I'm not ready to throw a vote for him. He's been pretty quiet, actually. I'd like to hear where other people's opinions lie.

 

[MattyG]

I'm just getting caught up, so I don't want to jump to a vote just yet (since we don't want a repeat of what happened with egruntz). However, looking at what I've read on the last page, I think my top 2 suspects would be irfaantor and Kalor. I'll try to post later today or tomorrow with a little more detail once I've gone through everything.

 

[johnnyquicknives]

johnnyquickknives I'm just not sure. I'm inclined to lynch him if only because both of our dead were calling him out. It might also shake things up regarding his associates, which could be detrimental to myself since they've been defending me.

This is super interesting to me.

When I said yesterday

I do have one fairly major thought which has been niggling at me since the start of Day two that I have swung back and forth over. I'm going to do a bunch of re-reading and see if I can get my thoughts on it in order, and back them up properly

I was actually referring to you.

The crux of my thought was I felt that you were quite quick to be supportive of me (to the point that your above post surprises me since if you were to ask me to list my "associates" I'd probably have put you at the top of the list) when I posted this you were right behind me

This post is part of why I don't suspect johnny. The logic makes sense to me. I think Irfaanator is high on my suspect list, particularly with how defensive he got after his name got brought up.

At that point my name hadn't really come up in the discussion and your support kind of stuck out to me, particularly when it was reinforced

Otherwise, I feel like jonnyquickknives is town because his reasoning has seemed sound.

and probably made me notice your posts a bit more.

Moving on from that I noticed a few times when I would post something, and then notice that shortly after you would make a post reinforcing it. Obviously I'm not claiming any exclusive rights to accusations, and the two of us certainly weren't the only people mentioning them but, as I said, there was just something that made me notice your posts after the support.

I posted

Right now I am more suspicious of Amir0x, he also seems to have made quite a few posts with very little substance and something about this post (which directly follows Barry's long, and final, post) just seems a bit off too me, in light of recent events

and then egruntzgate kicked off. During that time you made a couple of posts, nothing majorly notable before you dropped your triple vote which was the three people that I had mentioned as being suspicious.

I'm going to have a busy weekend and may not be able to post much, so I'm going to throw out a few votes I'm okay with us.

Vote: Egruntz

I feel like he saw my name come up and decided to try and dogpile me(and others) to get a Tourist Lynched.

Vote: amirox

I don't like how silent he's gone, and his few posts haven't been particularly helpful.

Vote: Irfaanator

For all the reasons I've said previously, and more recently it's seemed like he avoided responding to accusations.

Egruntz was an obvious choice after the previous discussions. Ifranaator you already had mentioned as being suspcious of for the same reasons as me in the posts I quoted above. Amir0x who I had also just mentioned.


I still don't really know what to make of it all, it seems kind of innocuous, and if your posts were backing someone else I doubt I would have given them a second thought, but the whole time something about the support and backing up of suspicions just felt off to me.
I didn't want to mention it throughout day 2 because while part of me was suspicious about it but the other part thought that you might be a cop trying to gently sway the group in my favour or let me know that you knew I was town, and I didn't really want to draw attention to that. Now I can be pretty sure that you arent a cop I feel more comfortable posting about it.

So with that said, it's interesting that you don't seem to see yourself as an associate of mine (out of interest who do you feel were my associates?), either that or you're just distancing yourself from me, which does make sense at this point as I'm definitely moving up the suspect pile.

 

[tomakasatnav]

Has anyone done a summary post of people's reason for voting egruntz? Might have to go through and quote all of them, and maybe compare it up against the first vote.

 

[Palmer_v1]

This is super interesting to me.

When I said yesterday

I was actually referring to you.

The crux of my thought was I felt that you were quite quick to be supportive of me (to the point that your above post surprises me since if you were to ask me to list my "associates" I'd probably have put you at the top of the list) when I posted this you were right behind me



At that point my name hadn't really come up in the discussion and your support kind of stuck out to me, particularly when it was reinforced

and probably made me notice your posts a bit more.

Moving on from that I noticed a few times when I would post something, and then notice that shortly after you would make a post reinforcing it. Obviously I'm not claiming any exclusive rights to accusations, and the two of us certainly weren't the only people mentioning them but, as I said, there was just something that made me notice your posts after the support.

I posted

and then egruntzgate kicked off. During that time you made a couple of posts, nothing majorly notable before you dropped your triple vote which was the three people that I had mentioned as being suspicious.



Egruntz was an obvious choice after the previous discussions. Ifranaator you already had mentioned as being suspcious of for the same reasons as me in the posts I quoted above. Amir0x who I had also just mentioned.


I still don't really know what to make of it all, it seems kind of innocuous, and if your posts were backing someone else I doubt I would have given them a second thought, but the whole time something about the support and backing up of suspicions just felt off to me.
I didn't want to mention it throughout day 2 because while part of me was suspicious about it but the other part thought that you might be a cop trying to gently sway the group in my favour or let me know that you knew I was town, and I didn't really want to draw attention to that. Now I can be pretty sure that you arent a cop I feel more comfortable posting about it.

So with that said, it's interesting that you don't seem to see yourself as an associate of mine (out of interest who do you feel were my associates?), either that or you're just distancing yourself from me, which does make sense at this point as I'm definitely moving up the suspect pile.

I do consider myself to have been an associate, along with Timeaisis. I'm more likely to stay alive with you two around, since we seem to have similar trains of thought, and you both accepted me as a tourist. That's not neccessarily a good thing for the Tourists though, if it turns out one or both of you have been manipulating my loyalty. With that said, I'm willing to risk my own success if it means getting valuable information from/about you or Timeasis. The only reason I pick you over timeasis is that the last two people that were killed called you out specifically. I'm just not willing to lynch you yet myself, because there are other people I suspect far more. I'm also still hoping more information might come to light.

Does that make sense?

 

[irfaanator]

Tbh my vote this week would be for palmer_v1. Based on my response to foshy's and pamler's suspicions on me, http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showpost.php?p=147787718&postcount=413, it more looks like misdirection. I say I have a feeling about palmer is a mafioso and palmer straight away says I'm defensive? Comes out of nowhere with no evidence of that and me having no posts before that were I'm being defensive. And palmer hasn't said anything about that post so either he's avoiding the issue or as everybody can see just lynch me off so I won't cause further issues for him.

 

[Amir0x]

Hmmm... not sure who to vote for. Gotta read the last few pages

 

[Amir0x]

Boy these theories are complicated as shit, I gotta start writing stuff down. Get myself a white board and some yarn and pins.

Only reason I've been inactive is because I forgot to put this thread on Subscription notifications, and because it's not a common part of my routine yet I haven't yet got used to regularly visiting this topic. I'll get better!

I really don't have any good theories yet on who is what, it seems sort of like a shot in the dark at this point. I feel bad no matter who I vote for because I can't give a good reason for it yet...

...I'm sort of jumping between Kalor and johnnyquicknives, due to some of the persuasive posts in this topic. But not quite sure yet.

 

[pants]

Amir0x, tell us where you've been the last couple of phases, I see you posting everywhere on this forum but here, you cant fool me.

 

[Amir0x]

You know stuff and thaaaangs.

It's hard to remember the Community Forum sometimes!

 

[Rembrandt]

Johnny and Palmer's interaction are lowering my suspicion of them, as dumb as that is.

 

[Amir0x]

I guess I'm going to go with Kalor. But I really just am going with my gut at this point, I can't really decide definitively based on arguments made so far.

VOTE: Kalor

 

[johnnyquicknives]

I do consider myself to have been an associate, along with Timeaisis. I'm more likely to stay alive with you two around, since we seem to have similar trains of thought, and you both accepted me as a tourist. That's not neccessarily a good thing for the Tourists though, if it turns out one or both of you have been manipulating my loyalty. With that said, I'm willing to risk my own success if it means getting valuable information from/about you or Timeasis. The only reason I pick you over timeasis is that the last two people that were killed called you out specifically. I'm just not willing to lynch you yet myself, because there are other people I suspect far more. I'm also still hoping more information might come to light.

Does that make sense?

It was just interesting as I had been trying to work out what to post about my feelings on our interactions and your post helped me confirm some of that. Like I mentioned my feelings for you, Time, Foshy etc flip back and forth quite a bit, and really it's mostly just because you guys post a lot more to analyse.

Your reasons for picking me totally do make sense, and people definitely should be considering why egruntz and duress voted for me (not that I feel there was anything of note there). Having said that I don't think you can't really put much stock peoples votes just because of their alliance. Yeah, they were tourists and didn't have any reason to be manipulative, but so are the majority of us, and no-one (power roles excluded) really knows anything. I sure know that the votes I'm making/considering are barely better than stabs in the dark at this point.
I think the more pertinent question is why did the mafia (or killer/vigilante) decide to target Duress, him being the only other person that voted for me? That's definitely a calculated, and highly noticeable, move to make.
As I mentioned before I don't know that theres a whole lot to be learned from me posting about it (NEWSFLASH: I'm a tourist!!!) but I would love to read why some other people think that might have happened.



I should probably give a heads up that my activity will likely drop for a few days as I'm away this weekend. Hopefully I'll work out my vote before I head off and I'll still keep up with the thread as much as I can on my phone.

 

[Kalor]

I


I think the more pertinent question is why did the mafia (or killer/vigilante) decide to target Duress, him being the only other person that voted for me? That's definitely a calculated, and highly noticeable, move to make.
As I mentioned before I don't know that theres a whole lot to be learned from me posting about it (NEWSFLASH: I'm a tourist!!!) but I would love to read why some other people think that might have happened.

It could be that the mafia/other killing role just picked a person who had been accused and tried to frame them without putting much thought into it. Your name was mentioned a lot when people talked about who was "suspicious" so there was the chance people might try to lynch you if they had a reason to suspect you (Such as killing someone who suspected you.) For a while I did suspect you but your recent posts have made me change my mind.



In terms of who I think is mafia, I've been finding it difficult to find a singular person since some people haven't posted a lot. Looking through the thread irfaanator is standing out a lot to me. They got quite defensive whenever they were accused and change their mind on lynching on Day 1. They say

not much from the first day. usually just gotta kill someone the first day and hope we can take some info on who dies/does not die during the night

Then later they reluctantly vote no lynch at a time where there was only 8/14 votes

hmmm, I guess I gotta no lynch as well.

VOTE: NO LYNCH

On Day 2 they decide to change their mind and is in support of no lynching on Day 1.

alright I reread the thread, but yea in my opinion no lynch helps out the townsfolk the first day in the fact that we don't run the chance of killing one of our special folk.

While it might be that they simply changed their mind on no lynching on Day 1 (and they weren't the only person) they do stand out a lot to me right now.


VOTE: irfaanator

 

[irfaanator]

It could be that the mafia/other killing role just picked a person who had been accused and tried to frame them without putting much thought into it. Your name was mentioned a lot when people talked about who was "suspicious" so there was the chance people might try to lynch you if they had a reason to suspect you (Such as killing someone who suspected you.) For a while I did suspect you but your recent posts have made me change my mind.



In terms of who I think is mafia, I've been finding it difficult to find a singular person since some people haven't posted a lot. Looking through the thread irfaanator is standing out a lot to me. They got quite defensive whenever they were accused and change their mind on lynching on Day 1. They say



Then later they reluctantly vote no lynch at a time where there was only 8/14 votes



On Day 2 they decide to change their mind and is in support of no lynching on Day 1.



While it might be that they simply changed their mind on no lynching on Day 1 (and they weren't the only person) they do stand out a lot to me right now.


VOTE: irfaanator

If you read this post here : http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showpost.php?p=146430902&postcount=78

I'm under the assumption that you have to kill somebody. When I find out that you don't, I switch to no kill

 

[irfaanator]

then the next post is this http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showpost.php?p=146440802&postcount=79

 

[kingkitty]

I'll probably slouch to a lynch decision before the Superbowl.

 

[Zippedpinhead]

I have been poring over the posts from Day 1 and day 2. I even have some ideas on who I think are mafia. I just wish I could confirm some of this...

 

[Zippedpinhead]

What I mean by "Confirmation" is I am currently thinking of people as "groups"

Kalor & Palmer_v1 and Infraanator, Quantumbro & AmiRox.

Kalor has been pushing for Ifraanator for a couple of days, as well as Palmer both throwing a couple of votes on him. Kalor said he would feel regret over starting the egruntz death march (of which I must admit, I contributed to the frenzy). However, his first post was

Of course with this particular point we can't do much else besides wait and see if more one person dies tomorrow.

Palmer_v1 is very active, but he made a rookie mistake with the voting three times in one post...

Spoiler

or was it...

If it was not an accident it was a wonderful way to throw off suspicion.

Ifraanator hasn't voted for Kalor, instead he defends himself immediately, which he has done all game. He was the first to vote for Egruntz, and never really thought about changing his vote back. Amirox is also up on Palmer_v1's list for his posting habits earlier in the game, threw his vote with Quantumbro against Kalor. However, Quantumbro seems pretty on the level, it was a well thought out post. He also noted that Kaylor was quick to come up with possibilities for the vigilante, something that a mafia person would

Looking at these groups, they seem opposed to each other. I have to assume that the mafioso would not throw votes on each other, and would instead deflect the votes elsewhere. So if we get rid of someone from either of these groups we may learn something.

TL: DR: Read the post...

 

[Palmer_v1]

What I mean by "Confirmation" is I am currently thinking of people as "groups"

Kalor & Palmer_v1 and Infraanator, Quantumbro & AmiRox.

Kalor has been pushing for Ifraanator for a couple of days, as well as Palmer both throwing a couple of votes on him. Kalor said he would feel regret over starting the egruntz death march (of which I must admit, I contributed to the frenzy). However, his first post was
Palmer_v1 is very active, but he made a rookie mistake with the voting three times in one post...

Spoiler

or was it...

If it was not an accident it was a wonderful way to throw off suspicion.

Ifraanator hasn't voted for Kalor, instead he defends himself immediately, which he has done all game. He was the first to vote for Egruntz, and never really thought about changing his vote back. Amirox is also up on Palmer_v1's list for his posting habits earlier in the game, threw his vote with Quantumbro against Kalor. However, Quantumbro seems pretty on the level, it was a well thought out post. He also noted that Kaylor was quick to come up with possibilities for the vigilante, something that a mafia person would

Looking at these groups, they seem opposed to each other. I have to assume that the mafioso would not throw votes on each other, and would instead deflect the votes elsewhere. So if we get rid of someone from either of these groups we may learn something.

TL: DR: Read the post...

I am legitimately a rookie to the forum version of this. I said as much back when Crab was first asking for volunteers/victims. I like to think I'm decent to good at werewolf IRL, but that's a hell of a long con if I was lying about stuff before we even knew a game was going to happen for sure.

I didn't expect to get grouped with Kalor, but I guess you have a point, though if a desire to Lynch irfaanator was your criteria, I'm surprised you don't include johnnyquickknives there. Also, do you not consider johnny and timeasis to be a group?

Kalor and Johnny are the two I hope to get the most information about based on the results of today/tonight.

I do want to focus on the people that lynched egruntz, particularly the latter half.

 

[Timeaisis]

Sorry I haven't posted in a couple days. Catching up on what I've missed.

Palmer, do you mind explaining why you view myself, you and johnny as associates? I'm not really suspicious or anything, just trying to understand the thought process behind these alliances that you guys seem to be forming.

 

[Palmer_v1]

Sorry I haven't posted in a couple days. Catching up on what I've missed.

Palmer, do you mind explaining why you view myself, you and johnny as associates? I'm not really suspicious or anything, just trying to understand the thought process behind these alliances that you guys seem to be forming.

You make it sound deliberate, which it's not, but like zipped just pointed out, it's often easier to lump people together into groups. I don't have time to go back and quote specifics, (

Spoiler

Dying Light awaits

)but the three of us have spoken in defense of each other to some degree previously. For example, Johnny said something early on that I agreed with, and made me think he was town. That makes me slightly favor anything else he says until new info comes to light. I sorta use a mental sliding scale. -5 means I'm 100% sure you're mafia, +5 is a tourist. You and johnny were probably +2 in the first two days. Irfaanator is a -3. Everyone else is somewhere in between.

The reason I ask Zipped about it is that I'm wondering if he deliberately avoided naming you as an act of collusion, he merely forgot, or he for some reason doesn't think that it is a thing. If it's the latter, I'd just like to know why.

I think I rambled a bit there, but hopefully my point is coming across. If I get time closer to when voting ends, I may just post my scale for every player for shits and giggles.

 

[Zippedpinhead]

I am legitimately a rookie to the forum version of this. I said as much back when Crab was first asking for volunteers/victims. I like to think I'm decent to good at werewolf IRL, but that's a hell of a long con if I was lying about stuff before we even knew a game was going to happen for sure.

I didn't expect to get grouped with Kalor, but I guess you have a point, though if a desire to Lynch irfaanator was your criteria, I'm surprised you don't include johnnyquickknives there. Also, do you not consider johnny and timeasis to be a group?

Kalor and Johnny are the two I hope to get the most information about based on the results of today/tonight.

I do want to focus on the people that lynched egruntz, particularly the latter half.

Truthfully, I almost grouped timeasis with you as well. But It didn't quite fit as well. My main criteria was being critical of the other group and votes, and while he has been critical of the other group, he also has looked at you and myself.

I didn't think of johnnyquickknives being in there either.

I'm posting this to try and get some discussion before we all head down the primrose path to a mafia win. I think this day will tell us a lot about some of the characters.

 

[Timeaisis]

Sorry I haven't posted in a couple days. Catching up on what I've missed.

Palmer, do you mind explaining why you view myself, you and johnny as associates? I'm not really suspicious or anything, just trying to understand the thought process behind these alliances that you guys seem to be forming.

You make it sound deliberate, which it's not, but like zipped just pointed out, it's often easier to lump people together into groups. I don't have time to go back and quote specifics, (

Spoiler

Dying Light awaits

)but the three of us have spoken in defense of each other to some degree previously. For example, Johnny said something early on that I agreed with, and made me think he was town. That makes me slightly favor anything else he says until new info comes to light. I sorta use a mental sliding scale. -5 means I'm 100% sure you're mafia, +5 is a tourist. You and johnny were probably +2 in the first two days. Irfaanator is a -3. Everyone else is somewhere in between.

The reason I ask Zipped about it is that I'm wondering if he deliberately avoided naming you as an act of collusion, he merely forgot, or he for some reason doesn't think that it is a thing. If it's the latter, I'd just like to know why.

I think I rambled a bit there, but hopefully my point is coming across. If I get time closer to when voting ends, I may just post my scale for every player for shits and giggles.

Cool, thank you for sharing your thoughts. I don't know if I consider myself allied with any particular group, but I am of the opinion that you and johnny are likely town.

 

[Ward]

A weird exchange between irfaanator and palmer I noticed.

Post 413: irfaanator claims to address foshy's issue from post 353 by quoting palmer’s post 280 where palmer calls out irfaanator for being defensive. irfaanator quotes his own 262 post and 2 more posts to prove he was not defensive.
Which, I would agree. I don't see irfaanator being defensive in any previous posts before 280.

In post 306 irfaanator had replied directly to palmer's post 280 stating he has to defend himself. How in post 280 does irfaanator claim he has to defend but in 413 claims and I would agree, he wasn't defensive. Why didn't he argue it in post 280?

Foshy’s issue was whether irf was proactive, not about being defensive.

Though, my main suspect would be Timeasis, just based on how confident he seems to be to lynch- tomakasatnav, irfaanator, before settling on egruntz. He jumped on egruntz quick. Many people have posted baseless suspicions, at least egruntz backed up his hunches.
One post that bugs me is when he asked everyone to post who they think is town, it just felt like a reach asking everyone to let the mafia know how well they are blending.

VOTE: Timeaisis

 

[MattyG]

A weird exchange between irfaanator and palmer I noticed.

Post 413: irfaanator claims to address foshy's issue from post 353 by quoting palmer’s post 280 where palmer calls out irfaanator for being defensive. irfaanator quotes his own 262 post and 2 more posts to prove he was not defensive.
Which, I would agree. I don't see irfaanator being defensive in any previous posts before 280.

In post 306 irfaanator had replied directly to palmer's post 280 stating he has to defend himself. How in post 280 does irfaanator claim he has to defend but in 413 claims and I would agree, he wasn't defensive. Why didn't he argue it in post 280?

Foshy’s issue was whether irf was proactive, not about being defensive.

Though, my main suspect would be Timeasis, just based on how confident he seems to be to lynch- tomakasatnav, irfaanator, before settling on egruntz. He jumped on egruntz quick. Many people have posted baseless suspicions, at least egruntz backed up his hunches.
One post that bugs me is when he asked everyone to post who they think is town, it just felt like a reach asking everyone to let the mafia know how well they are blending.

VOTE: Timeaisis

I'm very on the fence about Timeaisis. You're right, they do seem confident and quick to jump to the lynch, but it's hard to definitely tell the motivations behind it based on anything that they've said so far.

 

[johnnyquicknives]

Cool, thank you for sharing your thoughts. I don't know if I consider myself allied with any particular group, but I am of the opinion that you and johnny are likely town.

I don't really either (its why I kept putting associates in inverted commas), but there is a link there in that Palmer backed up a few of my posts, then egruntz called both of us out, and you were pointing out the flaws in egruntz posts.

At the time I didn't feel like you were posting in support of me as much as you were just pointing out how flawed egruntz post was and until the above post I'm not sure you had put out a post specifically saying anything positive about me. When you go back over the whole egruntz thing though we were probably the two people making longer posts against him so I can see how we get lumped together a bit.


I'm really nowhere near being ready to vote but kind of want to get one in so I'm going to throw out a few thoughts.

Irfanaator was on my list in day 1, im still not sure about him but I'm less suspicious than I was then.

Amir0x I still have a negative gut feeling about. The problem is that he hasn't really been active so I don't think I'll learn anything from killing him (which is the issue with a lot of the less active players).

Nin1000 came up a lot in peoples suspicions on day one, when he was most active, and then faded into the background. Any recent posts have been around the game rather than getting involved in any of the real suspicion/defence debates. I'd be inclined to think this is self-preservation but the fact that he seems eager to get involved at the start of Day 3 (well technically during night 2) does make me a bit suspicious.

Tomakasatnav is in a similar spot, he's become less active after early accusations, but a couple of his posts are a bit more involved so I'm slightly less suspicious than I am of Nin.


I think I'm going to
VOTE: Nin1000
Reasons
- Drop in activity after being accused
- Irrelevent posts (about catching up, general posts about the game rather than really getting involved)
- A few posts about being impatient or excited, but then not really getting involved during the day phases.

it's admittedly a stab in the dark but I do want to get a vote in now incase I can't get back on before Sunday.

 

[nin1000]

Sorry johnnyquicknives for literarry kicking the day off and leaving, with me suspecting you. At that time i thought you were a guy we all had to consider and throw an eye on but as the day went on several other players have become a lot more interesting.

Kalor's decision on voting irfaanator does not make much sense in my eyes, as he explained his posts in a way that make a lot of sense. Even though he was accussed by Kalor he does not go into agressive mode and try's to counter vote for him.
Maybe he knows Kalor will get some votes from other players, but atm i do not consider him mafia.

As ward pointed out Timeaisis seems very confident, i do understand why someone would vote for him but on the other hand i believe he is Town.

Thanks Zippedpinhead for this vote

What I mean by "Confirmation" is I am currently thinking of people as "groups"

Kalor & Palmer_v1 and Infraanator, Quantumbro & AmiRox.

Kalor has been pushing for Ifraanator for a couple of days, as well as Palmer both throwing a couple of votes on him. Kalor said he would feel regret over starting the egruntz death march (of which I must admit, I contributed to the frenzy). However, his first post was
Palmer_v1 is very active, but he made a rookie mistake with the voting three times in one post...

Spoiler

or was it...

If it was not an accident it was a wonderful way to throw off suspicion.

Ifraanator hasn't voted for Kalor, instead he defends himself immediately, which he has done all game. He was the first to vote for Egruntz, and never really thought about changing his vote back. Amirox is also up on Palmer_v1's list for his posting habits earlier in the game, threw his vote with Quantumbro against Kalor. However, Quantumbro seems pretty on the level, it was a well thought out post. He also noted that Kaylor was quick to come up with possibilities for the vigilante, something that a mafia person would

Looking at these groups, they seem opposed to each other. I have to assume that the mafioso would not throw votes on each other, and would instead deflect the votes elsewhere. So if we get rid of someone from either of these groups we may learn something.

TL: DR: Read the post...

As i did not look at the game the same way you did , the theory of "groups" did not came to mind until that moment.

As for lynching , well we still have 2 more days so i will hold back with my vote on who to chose.

 

[tomakasatnav]

One post that bugs me is when he asked everyone to post who they think is town, it just felt like a reach asking everyone to let the mafia know how well they are blending.

Huh, didn't notice that or read it like that.

Voting for people like Timeasis is difficult because your instinct is not to vote for the active players since they're more often than not pushing the game on, but that shouldn't matter in a mafia or town decision.

Still need to do all the egruntz votes quotes, will try tonight!

 

[Kalor]

So I've read up on the thread since I last posted and irfaanator explained his posts quite well and I can understand where they are coming from. This unvote may play into some peoples narrative of me and irfaanator working together but my reasons for voting him seem invalid as of right now.

Kalor has been pushing for Ifraanator for a couple of days, as well as Palmer both throwing a couple of votes on him.

While this is a small detail for me to correct, I never pushed for irfaanator on other days. I went and checked just in case I forgot but I never even mentioned them.

UNVOTE: irfaanator

 

[Karkador]

First of all, let me say that I generally agree with Foshy and Timeasis's analyses that it seems clear there is more than one killer active in the game. However, I'm not convinced that it's impossible for Duress to have been targeted twice on N2.

Good points. However, I still do feel strongly it's a vigilante. Or as Foshy pointed out, a neutral-aligned Killer type role. I do not think it's a mafia hitman.

My reasoning is thusly:
Duress had to be targeted twice, meaning he was either targeting twice in one night, or (at least) once in N1 and once in N2. Note that I'm assuming the Hitman and the Mafia are aligned and can communicate.

I think if it's possible for there to be a Hitman (or any kind of separate Mafia-aligned role that communicates with Mafia at night), the likelihood of a coordinated double-strike on Duress is very likely.

Assuming it's a Hitman, let's look at it this way:

Night 1 targets - Barry, Duress;
Mafia and Hitman attack two separate targets, Duress survives.

Day 2, At this point in the game, everyone is talking about a potential Doctor being out there, not someone who can take multiple hits like a Tough Guy.

Mafia is probably legit shook about Duress at this point, and suspect he's a Doctor. Why? Because without much to go on, a Doctor's most likely move is to protect themselves on Day 1. That would explain how he survived the attack.

Day 2 involves egruntz aggressively calling out mafia tactics like he wants a huge target on his head. Duress is the only one to stand by him in voting, as if Duress needed more reasons to be on someone's kill list at this point.

Night 2 targets - Duress and...Duress?

If Mafia and Hitman think he's a Doctor (AND someone voting against them), and a Doctor can only help a character survive one hit, then there's absolutely a clear reason for them to coordinate - a two-hit combo would ensure that "Doctor Duress" goes down.

 

[Zippedpinhead]

So with 24 hours to go we have two votes for kalor, one vote for irfaanator, one vote for nin1000, and one vote for timeasis.

I am really torn with who to vote for. there are some compelling arguments, and I think we can learn a bunch.

However, I think what we are going to learn tonight is rough.

 

[Deleted member 231381]

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
| Vote Count |
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

Kalor: 2 / 13 [Quantumbro, Amir0x]

irfaanator: 1 / 13 [Palmer_v1]

Timeaisis: 1 / 13 [Ward]

nin1000: 1 / 13 [johnnyquicknives]

Everyone should have received a PM by tonight informing them there are 24 hours left. I'm starting sending them now.

EDIT: also, if we can get posts from El Topo and RobotNinjaHornets, we might see our first no-prod night. I'm proud of everyone else for managing so far this day, well done.

EDIT 2: this is literally the most tedious shit ever because of GAF's lack of a multiple recipient feature and the fact you have to wait 30 seconds between messages, so I may do this in batches. gone alphabetically as far as L. the moral of this story is use this 24 hours wisely as the very sight of the send new message button is exhausting me

 

[El Topo]

Sorry I haven't posted in the past days. A lot of work came up. I'll have to go through the thread and make up my mind.

I know being inactive is unfair and harms the game, I apologize for that.

 

[Zatoth]

@Crab: What would happen if the votes lead to a tie at the end of the day?

 

[Deleted member 231381]

@Crab: What would happen if the votes lead to a tie at the end of the day?

12. In the event of a day ending with no player having a plurality of the votes, then the game will proceed to the next night phase with nobody lynched ("no-lynch").

.

 

[Zatoth]

Oh, thx.

Was just looking for it in the "Voting, Lynching, and Death" section.

 

[Amir0x]

Alright we're all over the map. Can we discuss the votes so far?

Kalor (2)
irfaanator (1)
Timeaisis (1)
nin1000 (1)

Ok, so this is our lineup it seems for potential lynch. Honestly the problem is nobody has really stood out much, no matter what intricate theorizing people are doing about this person or that person. There's just not a lot to go on right now. No consensus at all.

There were a few posts on this page that made a "fumes-esque" argument about Kalor which was basically the best argument I heard so fa and the only reason I voted, but even that was weak to say the least.

Can people who voted for irfaanator and Timeaisis make the argument for them vs. Kalor or nin1000?

 

[irfaanator]

For me I have to vote for palmer_v1. He still hasn't explained why he thought I was being defensive in the beginning, and the more I think about it, I just feel like he was trying to divert attention when I said I suspect him.

palmer_v1