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[Zippedpinhead]

With Johnny being a tourist aligned killer, I am inclined to believe that the second death tonight was mafia related.

Hopefully the cop knows some information now. Serious, this is ridiculous.

Does anyone still want to vote for the same people from last time?

 

[Palmer_v1]

With Johnny being a tourist aligned killer, I am inclined to believe that the second death tonight was mafia related.

Hopefully the cop knows some information now. Serious, this is ridiculous.

Does anyone still want to vote for the same people from last time?

My gut is to keep voting for Irfaanator.

I'm assuming that Johnny never got a chance to actually use his ability, and we do in fact have two Mafia killers. Probably somewhere between 4-6 mafia based on the number of players we started with, so roughly 1 out of 4 of us are Mafia now.

I'm going with Irfaanator, amir0x, mattyg, and nin1000.

Irfaanator and amir0x for reasons that have been stated repeatedly, and nothing has really changed it in my mind.

Mattyg purely for this post: http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showpost.php?p=150117308&postcount=580. Just seemed like a mafia member waffling while he waited to see if he would need to push us towards a tourist instead of a mafia.

nin1000 because of what johnny said:

I thought it was interesting that I called Nin out, with one of the reasons being irrelevent posts and inactivity(despite seeming eager/excited) only for him to instantly come back and reply meaning he was almost certainly keeping an eye on the thread.

 

[Palmer_v1]

and if I'm right about mattyg, it means Kalor is probably Mafia too, since that's the only person with enough votes to have been at risk.

 

[pants]

Wow. Every time I think I have a handle on how many killers there are it seems like a new one appears :/

 

[nin1000]

nin1000 because of what johnny said:

I will have to explain myself one. I was the one who got the ball rolling on Jonny as I thought he was suspicious in my eyes, since duress voted for him and he had to die the following night.

Yes, in his eyes my posts had been irrelevant since I was indeed eager to play, but as some posts of you all, foshy and timeaisis especially, have said nearly everything important I did not see the urge to post my 'irrelevant' thoughts since I can not express myself on that same level.
I see nothing wrong with lurking btw.
I will get more involved in the game now if that is your wish Palmer.

 

[El Topo]

Well I screwed up. Again. Sorry johnny. I'll have to think about all this.

 

[pants]

*edit: Crap didn't see Crab's post.

Assuming you wanted to say something to me here, have at you

 

[Amir0x]

VOTE:Amir0x

I'm voting for you not because I'm convinced you are mafia, but because I am convinced your behavior is peculiar. You mentioned not remembering to post in this thread, but I kinda don't believe you for a second, you likely are subbed to this thread, like all of us. To me it's irreconcilably strange that I see you post tens of times in other threads throughout the day, but not here. I expected you to be the most active member, and the fact that you're not (especially since you likely know you're somewhat of an opinion maker on here) tells me you're either scared of being targeted or you have a role that allows you to influence this game without being overly vocal about it. That may not necessarily be a mafia role, but to my mind you're the absolute most peculiar person for me. (It sux, but it kinda counts against you that I'm familiar with you, but not so many of the other people in this thread, thus it's easy to see when you act odd)

Either this is going to completely bite me in the ass if I'm wrong, or it'll be me making a good decision, but I think I support this post. I know I myself haven't been the most active player, but I certainly haven't said I'd forgotten to post here since it's been on my subscription since I got in the game (when someone quit?).

I don't really know Amirox all that much, but I know he's been active outside of this thread, and I find it very odd that someone that active wouldn't subscribe a thread they're supposed to be posting in. It just doesn't seem to make any sense to me at all.

There's a lot going on between johnny and Kalor, but personally I haven't seen anything hugely condeming for either of them. Although saying that, so far I haven't seen that for anyone as it still seriously feels like we're shooting in the dark with the lynches. I'm going to make the decision purely based off of of his behaviour to:

VOTE:Amir0x

I just want to say now that the reason it's quite easy for me to miss subscribing is because in the entire time I have ever been on GAF, I have never intentionally subscribed to a topic. Ever. Like, not an exaggeration. I've accidentally done it a few times, but it's not something I use on purpose. Just like I never once used the ignore function on GAF in my entire decade+ here.

So this is the first 'active game' type topic I've participated in that pretty much requires it to be functional and as a result the first time I've found real utility in subscribing. But since I never do it, I simply forgot to subscribe up front (and further forget to set myself e-mail notifications to remind me of the subscription once it was on).

So nothing sinister here, although you're obviously free to ascribe whatever nefarious motives to 'forgot to subscribe' you like. ;P Seems rather innocuous to base a kill on, but I am decidedly just here to see the sights just like most of the rest of you find touristy-folks.

ROLES so far

TOURIST ALIGNED

OLD COLONEL (once per game, override any vote to lynch player they choose, Barrylocke Note)
ORDINARY TOURIST (votes during the day for lynch, Egrutz Note)
REAL TOUGH GUY (can survive targeted killing once per game; Durress was killed meaning someone vote killed twice)
GOD-FEARING AMERICAN (once per game can select target to kill with your super awesome american gun cryingeagle.gif; Foshy note)

MAFIA ALIGNED

MAFIA GOON (each night can kill non-mafia aligned player)
SECONDARY KILLER OF SOME SORT (abilities?)



The fact that we can't figure out just how many killers can kill per night makes this especially tense. But I am really just genuinely unsure how to proceed, gonna definitely read more carefully this go around

Edit: Crap keep forgetting not to edit, but for the record I just added "Mafia Aligned" underlined bolded and this line that's all

 

[Deleted member 231381]

Whoops, thanks for that Amir0x, you made me realize I missed Duress' will! (sorry Duress)

If you're reading this, I'm dead. I knew this day would come, but I could not say due to the obscurity of everything. I'll see you all soon.

Also, just a reminder they're purely flavourful. No point analyzing them, I have done so myself to make sure nothing sneaks past the censors.

 

[Timeaisis]

My gut is to keep voting for Irfaanator.

I'm assuming that Johnny never got a chance to actually use his ability, and we do in fact have two Mafia killers. Probably somewhere between 4-6 mafia based on the number of players we started with, so roughly 1 out of 4 of us are Mafia now.

I'm going with Irfaanator, amir0x, mattyg, and nin1000.

Irfaanator and amir0x for reasons that have been stated repeatedly, and nothing has really changed it in my mind.

Mattyg purely for this post: http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showpost.php?p=150117308&postcount=580. Just seemed like a mafia member waffling while he waited to see if he would need to push us towards a tourist instead of a mafia.

nin1000 because of what johnny said:

I don't know how I feel about mattyg, but I agree with your suspicions of the others.

As for having an additional mafia hitman type role, it's still very possible we just have a vigilante who's killing off inactives. We don't know if johnny was able to use his ability, I kind of doubt it, but it's possible he also had a hand in offing Duress, but didn't admit to it.

 

[Amir0x]

Whoops, thanks for that Amir0x, you made me realize I missed Duress' will! (sorry Duress)



Also, just a reminder they're purely flavourful. No point analyzing them, I have done so myself to make sure nothing sneaks past the censors.

I was actually wondering about it, because I was so scarce for a reasonable direction to go in that I was starting to analyze the notes lol

 

[Kalor]

The second kill last night seems to confirm what most people thought.

I've been going back and forth on who I suspect this whole game but right now I'm thinking about:

Amir0x, nin1000 and irfaanator have stood out the most to me but everytime I suspect them, they say something that removes that suspicion.

Of course one of the mafia members could be Palmer or Timeaisis as they have been the more active participants which would allow them to seem like town and potentially manipulate people easily.

 

[Deleted member 231381]

Death is but a door, time is but a window. I'll be back.

(pretty impressed by the effort in johnny's)

 

[QuantumBro]

It looks like I found out something I shouldn't have. Anyone ever gotten a letter from a owl?

 

[Palmer_v1]

It looks like I found out something I shouldn't have. Anyone ever gotten a letter from a owl?

Nope.

 

[kingkitty]

poor quicknives

 

[tomakasatnav]

Ward's body was just something else. He looked like he'd been shredded, violently ripped limb from limb. I mean, there's even something that looks like toothmarks here and there. Frankly, it's quite enough to put one off one's delicious breakfast croissant.

Do we read anything into this particular style of killing, does it point to there being a third ... werewolf? role, one that wins by themselves if mafia or tourist are wiped out?

 

[Palmer_v1]

Do we read anything into this particular style of killing, does it point to there being a third ... werewolf? role, one that wins by themselves if mafia or tourist are wiped out?

Pretty sure Crab said the descriptions are purely for fluff, and should not be read into.

It's just better than saying, "Ward and Foshy died last night. Begin Day 4."

 

[Lord of Castamere]

It looks like I found out something I shouldn't have. Anyone ever gotten a letter from a owl?

11 years ago an owl delivered me a coupon for a free Blizzard.

 

[QuantumBro]

So I had to clarify something with Crab to make sure I'm not wasn't breaking any rules by talking about the pm I received. I can't quote the pm directly, so I'll just paraphrase it.

During the night, an owl appeared outside my window with an envelope in it's mouth. Inside the envelope was a note that read "Switch: Kalor and Ward".

I'm taking this to mean that Kalor was the original target for last night, which is making me very confused now. Anyone else receive a similar note ever?

 

[Timeaisis]

So I had to clarify something with Crab to make sure I'm not wasn't breaking any rules by talking about the pm I received. I can't quote the pm directly, so I'll just paraphrase it.

During the night, an owl appeared outside my window with an envelope in it's mouth. Inside the envelope was a note that read "Switch: Kalor and Ward".

I'm taking this to mean that Kalor was the original target for last night, which is making me very confused now. Anyone else receive a similar note ever?

Whoa. No, I certainly have not.

It seems to me like you got a message of a special ability being used. Switching out any target of Kalor to the target of Ward. But why you? Are you a special role?

This is getting interesting...

 

[Deleted member 231381]

For the reference, I can neither confirm nor deny what I do or do not send. I can only comment on mechanical stuff.

 

[Timeaisis]

Alright, I suppose I'll analyze this turn of events.

QuantumBro gets a message of the text "Switch: Kalor and Ward". Sounds to me like an ability firing off that is redirecting any ill-effects from Kalor to Ward. Ward was killed, so we can assume Kalor may have been the original target.

Of course, QuantumBro could by lying about this whole thing (for some reason). That seems unlikely to m since Kalor was QuantumBro's last vote. Identifying Kalor as the real target would put a spotlight on QuantumBro (and everyone else who voted for Kalor). Would seem like a very bad idea for him to do that in this phase of the game. If he wanted to use some tricks to confuse us, he would likely have chosen another name apart from Kalor to claim was switched with Ward, to not put unnecessary eyes on himself. Therefore, I conclude QuantumBro really did receive this PM.

Now, what does that mean? I take it to mean, as I said, that Kalor and Ward's targets were switched. We were already confused as to why Ward was killed off. He wasn't super active and didn't seem like much of a threat to mafia. Many posited that Ward was the target of a vigilante, which would align with this supposed vigilante's MO of killing of inactive players.

However, this is a wrinkle in that theory. If Kalor and Ward were indeed switched, someone obviously was protecting Kalor and used Ward as "fodder". But why protect Kalor? We did have a pretty heated debate as to whether or not Kalor was mafia last night. Was this "switcher" role trying to protect Kalor from a vigilante kill? Possibly. A mafia kill? Maybe. It really depends.

If anything, this further convolutes the groups we chose to analyze today. We know have two real death and three potential targets. We have to analyze everyone they voted for and everyone who voted against them. That's a lot of data.

To me, this seems like a huge campaign from the mafia to further complicate the game. I don't know who this "switch" role is aligned with, but protecting Kalor seems like a pretty odd thing to do, especially considering Kalor is most likely the #1 suspect for a lot of people today.

 

[Palmer_v1]

Alright, I suppose I'll analyze this turn of events.

QuantumBro gets a message of the text "Switch: Kalor and Ward". Sounds to me like an ability firing off that is redirecting any ill-effects from Kalor to Ward. Ward was killed, so we can assume Kalor may have been the original target.

Of course, QuantumBro could by lying about this whole thing (for some reason). That seems unlikely to m since Kalor was QuantumBro's last vote. Identifying Kalor as the real target would put a spotlight on QuantumBro (and everyone else who voted for Kalor). Would seem like a very bad idea for him to do that in this phase of the game. If he wanted to use some tricks to confuse us, he would likely have chosen another name apart from Kalor to claim was switched with Ward, to not put unnecessary eyes on himself. Therefore, I conclude QuantumBro really did receive this PM.

Now, what does that mean? I take it to mean, as I said, that Kalor and Ward's targets were switched. We were already confused as to why Ward was killed off. He wasn't super active and didn't seem like much of a threat to mafia. Many posited that Ward was the target of a vigilante, which would align with this supposed vigilante's MO of killing of inactive players.

However, this is a wrinkle in that theory. If Kalor and Ward were indeed switched, someone obviously was protecting Kalor and used Ward as "fodder". But why protect Kalor? We did have a pretty heated debate as to whether or not Kalor was mafia last night. Was this "switcher" role trying to protect Kalor from a vigilante kill? Possibly. A mafia kill? Maybe. It really depends.

If anything, this further convolutes the groups we chose to analyze today. We know have two real death and three potential targets. We have to analyze everyone they voted for and everyone who voted against them. That's a lot of data.

To me, this seems like a huge campaign from the mafia to further complicate the game. I don't know who this "switch" role is aligned with, but protecting Kalor seems like a pretty odd thing to do, especially considering Kalor is most likely the #1 suspect for a lot of people today.

What I'm most confused about is why QuantumBro received a note about these actions? What potential roles could be involved with this type of information gathering/providing?

 

[kingkitty]

What I'm most confused about is why QuantumBro received a note about these actions? What potential roles could be involved with this type of information gathering/providing?

maybe some tourist investigator has the ability to send messages to other players

i can see why quantumbro was sent this, because he led the charge towards kalor.

also he posted this:

Before the day ends, anyone have any suggestions for who the cop (if there is one) should investigate?

My vote would be for timeaisis. He's taken up the leader role and I'd like to know if he can be trusted.

make of that what you will

 

[Lord of Castamere]

What I'm most confused about is why QuantumBro received a note about these actions? What potential roles could be involved with this type of information gathering/providing?

Well, looking at the list of the deceased, 3/6 had one time use roles. I think it's a safe bet that there are even more people with niche, and active, roles.

It's definitely interesting to say the least.

 

[Timeaisis]

maybe some tourist investigator has the ability to send messages to other players

i can see why quantumbro was sent this, because he led the charge towards kalor.

also he posted this:



make of that what you will

Yeah, must be some kind of an investigator that can intercept ability uses. I guess it makes sense to send it to QuantumBro, as he was for lynching Kalor. But then...QuantumBro would had to have shared that with us (which he did so that's good). Kind of a gambit to reveal that information to him, knowing he could not share it, considering he was voting for Kalor? But, this leads me to trust QuantumBro more. It seems something odd to just make up or lie about, and he is giving us the information he has. Pro-town move no matter how you look at it, unless this is all just some grand deceit, but I doubt it.

As for the cop investigation thing. Surely the cop has investigated someone, maybe me. I wonder who? I'd really like to know what the cop knows, if anything. But it's hard to make the call whether he should reveal himself just yet, as he'd be a pretty huge mafia target. At any rate, if someone wants to investigate me, by all means go ahead.

What I'd say for the cop, if you are listening: if you find information implicating someone tell us. Otherwise, probably best not to reveal that you investigated someone and they came up clean. That doesn't get us much and puts you at unnecessary risk.

 

[Karkador]

Well, shit, I was gonna comment on the night events, but this is a very strange twist.

I think the way the message was worded (naming Kalor first) does imply that it was something meant to protect Kalor - and he was almost lynched yesterday, while Ward seemingly wasn't on the radar at all.

If there is an actual command that switched who would die at night, the person responsible probably still didn't know for sure who was going to die, but they wanted Kalor protected.

As for this being the only message; either nobody else is saying they got a letter because it's too revealing, or the command was ineffective and didn't send someone a letter, or one of our dead also happened to get an owl letter, but can't say it.

We're gonna have to look at this role from different perspectives. Why would a Town player use this ability? Why would Mafia or neutral players use this ability?

 

[QuantumBro]

Whoa. No, I certainly have not.

It seems to me like you got a message of a special ability being used. Switching out any target of Kalor to the target of Ward. But why you? Are you a special role?

This is getting interesting...

No idea. I'm just a blue, but that's what everyone will claim.

Alright, I suppose I'll analyze this turn of events.

QuantumBro gets a message of the text "Switch: Kalor and Ward". Sounds to me like an ability firing off that is redirecting any ill-effects from Kalor to Ward. Ward was killed, so we can assume Kalor may have been the original target.

Of course, QuantumBro could by lying about this whole thing (for some reason). That seems unlikely to m since Kalor was QuantumBro's last vote. Identifying Kalor as the real target would put a spotlight on QuantumBro (and everyone else who voted for Kalor). Would seem like a very bad idea for him to do that in this phase of the game. If he wanted to use some tricks to confuse us, he would likely have chosen another name apart from Kalor to claim was switched with Ward, to not put unnecessary eyes on himself. Therefore, I conclude QuantumBro really did receive this PM.

Now, what does that mean? I take it to mean, as I said, that Kalor and Ward's targets were switched. We were already confused as to why Ward was killed off. He wasn't super active and didn't seem like much of a threat to mafia. Many posited that Ward was the target of a vigilante, which would align with this supposed vigilante's MO of killing of inactive players.

However, this is a wrinkle in that theory. If Kalor and Ward were indeed switched, someone obviously was protecting Kalor and used Ward as "fodder". But why protect Kalor? We did have a pretty heated debate as to whether or not Kalor was mafia last night. Was this "switcher" role trying to protect Kalor from a vigilante kill? Possibly. A mafia kill? Maybe. It really depends.

If anything, this further convolutes the groups we chose to analyze today. We know have two real death and three potential targets. We have to analyze everyone they voted for and everyone who voted against them. That's a lot of data.

To me, this seems like a huge campaign from the mafia to further complicate the game. I don't know who this "switch" role is aligned with, but protecting Kalor seems like a pretty odd thing to do, especially considering Kalor is most likely the #1 suspect for a lot of people today.

On one hand a neutral player could've targeted Kalor to see if he was Mafia or Mafia could've killed him to show us he was a villager and go after me today for leading the lynch against him yesterday. So fucking confusing.

What I'm most confused about is why QuantumBro received a note about these actions? What potential roles could be involved with this type of information gathering/providing?

There are a few roles in epic mafia that are sort of like this, such as the penguinand the caroler.

maybe some tourist investigator has the ability to send messages to other players

i can see why quantumbro was sent this, because he led the charge towards kalor.

also he posted this:



make of that what you will

If you're accusing me of being the cop, I'll just say two things: a. I would've announced I was the cop much earlier, that's how I play Mafia and b. I would've had a report on Timeaisis today, not the confusing mess I got.

Yeah, must be some kind of an investigator that can intercept ability uses. I guess it makes sense to send it to QuantumBro, as he was for lynching Kalor. But then...QuantumBro would had to have shared that with us (which he did so that's good). Kind of a gambit to reveal that information to him, knowing he could not share it, considering he was voting for Kalor? But, this leads me to trust QuantumBro more. It seems something odd to just make up or lie about, and he is giving us the information he has. Pro-town move no matter how you look at it, unless this is all just some grand deceit, but I doubt it.

As for the cop investigation thing. Surely the cop has investigated someone, maybe me. I wonder who? I'd really like to know what the cop knows, if anything. But it's hard to make the call whether he should reveal himself just yet, as he'd be a pretty huge mafia target. At any rate, if someone wants to investigate me, by all means go ahead.

What I'd say for the cop, if you are listening: if you find information implicating someone tell us. Otherwise, probably best not to reveal that you investigated someone and they came up clean. That doesn't get us much and puts you at unnecessary risk.

I'm probably going to be targeted by the Mafia tonight, so it probably would've been better for me to say nothing. Even if the cop doesn't have any information implicating someone, we at least have three people (possibly less) who we can trust are mafia. Plus we need an extra night to confirm if the cop is legit, since it could just be a Mafia member in disguise.

Only thing that makes against the cop revealing themselves is that if the switcher is on the mafia's side, it would be a really easy kill, even with the doctor. For some reason though, I don't think the switcher is on the mafia side, it would make them too overpowered.

 

[kingkitty]

If you're accusing me of being the cop, I'll just say two things: a. I would've announced I was the cop much earlier, that's how I play Mafia and b. I would've had a report on Timeaisis today, not the confusing mess I got.

no need to be defensive

I'm simply saying you asked a cop to investigate timeaisis

and then the next round you get a mysterious message about a switching ability

did this mysterious cop listen to your suggestion?

 

[QuantumBro]

Well, shit, I was gonna comment on the night events, but this is a very strange twist.

I think the way the message was worded (naming Kalor first) does imply that it was something meant to protect Kalor - and he was almost lynched yesterday, while Ward seemingly wasn't on the radar at all.

If there is an actual command that switched who would die at night, the person responsible probably still didn't know for sure who was going to die, but they wanted Kalor protected.

As for this being the only message; either nobody else is saying they got a letter because it's too revealing, or the command was ineffective and didn't send someone a letter, or one of our dead also happened to get an owl letter, but can't say it.

We're gonna have to look at this role from different perspectives. Why would a Town player use this ability? Why would Mafia or neutral players use this ability?

I've been thinking about that. Town player tries to guess who the Mafia is going to target and who they think a Mafia member is and switch them so the Mafia member dies instead. Neutral wouldn't make a lot of sense for this role, since what's the win condition for this role if all you can do is switch people. Mafia can always get a kill on whoever they want since they can just switch that player with someone who they don't think is going to be protected and go after them.

As I stated before, I think it's a town role since if the Mafia had the power they'd be way too overpowered. At this point I'm suspecting the kills come from a neutral killer and the Mafia (2 in total right now).

 

[StayDead]

I just want to say now that the reason it's quite easy for me to miss subscribing is because in the entire time I have ever been on GAF, I have never intentionally subscribed to a topic. Ever. Like, not an exaggeration. I've accidentally done it a few times, but it's not something I use on purpose. Just like I never once used the ignore function on GAF in my entire decade+ here.

So this is the first 'active game' type topic I've participated in that pretty much requires it to be functional and as a result the first time I've found real utility in subscribing. But since I never do it, I simply forgot to subscribe up front (and further forget to set myself e-mail notifications to remind me of the subscription once it was on).

So nothing sinister here, although you're obviously free to ascribe whatever nefarious motives to 'forgot to subscribe' you like. ;P Seems rather innocuous to base a kill on, but I am decidedly just here to see the sights just like most of the rest of you find touristy-folks.

I still can't believe someone could browse GAF and be able to follow topics without subscribing to them, but I'll give you the benefit of the doubt for now.

 

[QuantumBro]

no need to be defensive

I'm simply saying you asked a cop to investigate timeaisis

and then the next round you get a mysterious message about a switching ability

did this mysterious cop listen to your suggestion?

Sorry, it seemed like you were accusing me of being the cop. I don't think the message came from a cop, because of certain things that were said in the PM.

I still can't believe someone could browse GAF and be able to follow topics without subscribing to them, but I'll give you the benefit of the doubt for now.

This is the first thread I've subscribed to as well. It's easy enough to follow threads without it, since I'm on here daily.

 

[AbsolutBro]

Frick. Another night, another special tourist lost. ;_; RIP to the fallen.

Originally I was inclined to believe Palmer was mafia. There's nothing really specific, beyond how he seemed to automatically seem to try to lead, but as the game has gone on I'm no longer inclined to think that way. Either that or I've fallen for his Palmery wiles.

Kalor being protected(?) is certainly odd. Not that Kalor specifically was chosen, but that an owl decided to drop in on QuantumBro. It would be a little funny if Kalor ended up being Mafia, and some tourist unknowingly protected him.

I do wonder why QuantumBro shared this though. I mean, it puts a target on his back without really telling us anything. "Switch: Kalor and Ward". It could mean anything, could be related to any side's ability, and really doesn't gain us anything. It could imply that Ward and Kalor are on opposite teams, but it's still just an implication.

Finally, props to johnny on a pretty badass death note.

 

[MattyG]

Mattyg purely for this post: http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showpost.php?p=150117308&postcount=580. Just seemed like a mafia member waffling while he waited to see if he would need to push us towards a tourist instead of a mafia.

My intention wasn't to "waffle", I just wasn't completely sure who I wanted to vote for and I thought there was a lot more time until the voting deadline. Once someone let me know that the deadline was only an hour out, I went with my gut and voted for johnny.

 

[pants]

I just want to say now that the reason it's quite easy for me to miss subscribing is because in the entire time I have ever been on GAF, I have never intentionally subscribed to a topic. Ever. Like, not an exaggeration. I've accidentally done it a few times, but it's not something I use on purpose. Just like I never once used the ignore function on GAF in my entire decade+ here.

So this is the first 'active game' type topic I've participated in that pretty much requires it to be functional and as a result the first time I've found real utility in subscribing. But since I never do it, I simply forgot to subscribe up front (and further forget to set myself e-mail notifications to remind me of the subscription once it was on).

So nothing sinister here, although you're obviously free to ascribe whatever nefarious motives to 'forgot to subscribe' you like. ;P Seems rather innocuous to base a kill on, but I am decidedly just here to see the sights just like most of the rest of you find touristy-folks.

I'll drop it for now, consider my vote earlier a 'heads up im watching you" =P

 

[pants]

After stop start reading all morning due to work being dumb and busy, holy crap lots happened. QuantumBro, thanks for coming forward, this is going to need another rethink.

 

[Zatoth]

Do we read anything into this particular style of killing, does it point to there being a third ... werewolf? role, one that wins by themselves if mafia or tourist are wiped out?

May have something to do with the owl.

 

[Zatoth]

So the owl was either another player protecting Kalor by switching the target or Kalor himself had the power to do so right?

In the first case the question would be why someone used it on Kalor?

Mafia would make sense to protect their own. But as was already mentioned that may be to powerful of a action to have for the Mafia.

Although it probably is a one-time action. So may not work again.

 

[Amir0x]

I still can't believe someone could browse GAF and be able to follow topics without subscribing to them, but I'll give you the benefit of the doubt for now.

I don't really follow topics that way I guess. Especially community topics... I rarely post in those sorts of threads over the long term. Jus' not my style haha. I've been here for a decade+, I wish there was a way for a mod to confirm how many subscriptions I've had over the years. I remember a few times I accidentally subscribed to something and noticed a bit later and I removed those subscriptions, but seriously if they could check they'd probably see 5-6 quick accidental subscriptions in all my 10+ years here. Very tiny indeed.

I mean really we're all just voting with our gut right now, there is so little indication of how to vote right now. These are the fumes we're working on now... that someone claiming they failed to subscribe is suspicious

I still maintain Kalor right now since there is some weirdness going on there clearly now after that events, but I am withholding any votes til I read more of people's perspectives this round. I am lost.

 

[ultron87]

The only thing we can really determine from this, assuming it isn't an elaborate ruse, is that Kalor was going to die during the night. This certainly suggests that the Mafia was going to kill him. We haven't seen any real evidence for a non-mafia killer being active, given that only townspeople have died so far and that we've already lost someone on the town side with a one-shot kill power. There can't be that many of those floating around.

He could very possibly have just been protecting himself or maybe someone has a power that redirects all possible night actions.

 

[Kalor]

I saw this earlier but didn't have the time to post since I was on my phone.

This is a strange turn of events, at least for me. It seems weird that the mafia might of tried to kill me since they could just try to get me lynched today and kill someone else last night. Of course the real revelation from this is that we have someone who can swap all night actions against someone to someone else.

In terms of why someone used their action on me, they might of believed that I was innocent and saw me as a target for the killing roles and so protected me.

That is unless this whole thing is a ruse but if that is the case I don't know who this is meant to benefit.

 

[Zippedpinhead]

Ok finally caught up with everything that has happened

I'm thinking that the mafia crossed voted a bunch last day vote.

The final vote that killed Johnny was MattyG, timeaisis was the only vote from ward (which does cast some shadow on him).

The mafia killed two medium to low activity players. Foshy was fairly active and ward played once or twice a day.

With Johnny "investigating the vigilante". I'm pretty sure he never killed anyone.

 

[Timeaisis]

Alright, so I had some thoughts on this matter. Firstly, there's two unanswered questions that are hanging over our heads that I think are very important to understand.

1. Is the extra killer mafia or town?
2. Is the "switcher" mafia or town?

So, let's go through the 'ol Timeaisis tries to list out the possibilities, starting with the extra killer being mafia.

Here's what we know
N1: Barry, [attempt on Duress?]
N2: Duress (required 2 hits, so we know the vig/hitman was active by this time), [attempt on Duress?]
N3: Foshy, Kalor (Kalor <-> Ward)

N3 - One Mafia hit and one Mafia hitman hit
a) Switcher is Mafia
Mafia and hitman target Foshy and Kalor, respectively. Mafia switcher switches Kalor for Ward to throw us off and create confusion.

b) Switcher is Town
Mafia goes for Foshy, hitman goes for Kalor. Kalor is protected by town switcher, likely someone who was against Lynching Kalor or Kalor himself is the Switcher.

N3 - One Mafia Hit and One Vigilante Hitt
a) Switcher is Mafia
Mafia targets Foshy, vigilante targets Kalor. Mafia Switcher protects Kalor from vigilante kill. This is interesting, because it would make sense for the Mafia to know the vigilante was likely to try to kill Kalor, seeing as Kalor had a lot of votes last night. This, of course, points to Kalor being mafia.

b) Switcher is Town
Mafia targets Foshy, vigilante targets Kalor. Switcher, who is on Kalor's side last night protects Kalor and switches him for Ward.

So what does this all mean? Well, it could mean a number of things, obviously. It all depends on if you think the second killer is mafia or town. I still think we have a vigilante, and not a mafia hitman. Why? Because they would have had to explicitly target Duress on day one or, they would've had to known by Day 2 Duress was a tough guy and double hit him.

I think the first is obviously more likely, but again, it would require the Mafia hitman to want to take out Duress Day 1, even though he wasn't being particularly active or troublesome, and then the hitman would have had to decide that he was worth trying to kill again on day 2, even though he survived the first time. This doesn't make a whole lot of sense to me. There were plenty of other high-profile Mafia targets on D2, and going for Duress again (without the guarantee that he'd even die, remember they don't know he's a tough guy yet) seems like a waste of a kill.

Therefore, it's my opinion that we have a vigilante. This aligns with my view of what a vigilante would want to do: progress the game and sniff out mafia.
D1: targets Duress for being inactive
D2: targets Duress again for thinking he has a special mafia role
D3: targets Kalor for suspecting he is mafia

Remember Kalor had the second most votes D3, and Duress was a prime suspect by Day 2. So it falls in line with the vig trying to kill a mafia. D1 Duress targeting was likely just killing off an inactive, which was recommended by me and many others on D1 anyway. So, it's likely the vigilante is "going with the flow" of the town's opinions and executing the second most popular opinion on any given day. This makes a lot of sense to me.

So where does that leave us, if the extra killer is a town vigilante? Well, here it is again. Again, it all depends on who the switcher is aligned with.

N3 - One Mafia Hit and One Vigilante Hitt
a) Switcher is Mafia
Mafia targets Foshy, vigilante targets Kalor. Mafia Switcher protects Kalor from vigilante kill. This is interesting, because it would make sense for the Mafia to know the vigilante was likely to try to kill Kalor, seeing as Kalor had a lot of votes last night. This, of course, points to Kalor being mafia.

b) Switcher is Town
Mafia targets Foshy, vigilante targets Kalor. Switcher, who is on Kalor's side last night protects Kalor and switches him for Ward.

So either the switcher is town and is trying to protect Kalor from the killer (because they were "pro-Kalor" yesterday) OR the switcher is Mafia and trying to protect Kalor from the vigilante. Protecting Kalor seems like a weird choice for a town player, unless they were really sure Kalor was going to get targeted, or really sure Kalor wasn't mafia. They were likely worried Kalor would be the hit of a vigilante, since he was a prime suspect last night. The second option, of course, is Kalor is the switcher. And thirdly, the most interesting of the all: Kalor is mafia and the mafia switcher protected him from a vigilante hit. And finally, just to enumerate all possibilities: Kalor is not mafia, and a mafia switcher protected him to create confusion

So we have, if my theory about a town vigilante is true, we've got four possibilities:
1. Kalor was protected by a town switcher who was worried about a vigilante hit
2. Kalor is the switcher and protected himself from a vigilante hit
3. Kalor if mafia and the mafia switcher protected him from a vigilante hit
4. Kalor is town and the mafia switcher protected him from a vigilante hit to create confusion


As weird as it sounds, I'm currently leaning towards P3.

 

[Palmer_v1]

I assume most typical switcher roles are only effective versus night actions, as opposed to Lynching?

 

[irfaanator]

Wouldn't the mafia know that Kalor is mafia if he was the target? Like if his ability is a one time use, does he vote with other mafia members or just become a tourist like the rest of us after last night? It makes more sense to me that the mafia knows who all is on their side, so my assumption has to be that somehow Kalor is a neutral vigilante that was targeted by the hitman and survived by either purposefully or randomly throwing Ward under the bus.

 

[irfaanator]

also what would cause a vigilante to strike now? time base or that the specific job that quicknives was died by lynch.

 

[Karkador]

Wouldn't johnnyquicknives have been the Vigilante equivalent?

 

[Palmer_v1]

Wouldn't johnnyquicknives have been the Vigilante equivalent?

His ability was a one time use, and it seems like he never got a chance to use it. I guess it's POSSIBLE two separate one-shot abilities were used on those first kill attempts at night, but it's more likely that he was waiting for an opportune time, and we still have two active killers; the mafia, and one other undetirmined.

Semi-related, I just saw foshy posting elsewhere and got a little sad. I hope Crab has given the dead a separate forum where they can rant and rave about our decisions.

 

[ultron87]

We need to start voting instead of waffling about on what side a role is on. If we start now we can at least have a shot of making a definitive decision instead of limping with a weak majority into hanging another townsperson. A 5-4 vote split like we had yesterday makes it incredibly easy for the Mafia to influence things to their advantage without doing anything particularly suspicious.

Let's look at the vote progression yesterday, as compiled by the departed Foshy: http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showpost.php?p=150120158&postcount=585

Roundup of the votes so far, because it's ending soon

quantumbro: kalor http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showpost.php?p=149296316&postcount=500

palmer: irfanaator http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showpost.php?p=149368568&postcount=510

amirox: kalor http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showpost.php?p=149613392&postcount=523

(kalor: irfanaator http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showpost.php?p=149685002&postcount=525 UNVOTE http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showpost.php?p=149824592&postcount=541)

ward: timeaisis http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showpost.php?p=149758934&postcount=536

johnnyquickknives: nin1000 http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showpost.php?p=149771123&postcount=538

irfanaator: palmer http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showpost.php?p=149996717&postcount=550

ultron: karkador http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showpost.php?p=150000749&postcount=552

karkador: johnnyquickknives http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showpost.php?p=150007766&postcount=554

foshy: johnnyquickknives http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showpost.php?p=150009368&postcount=555

pants: amirox http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showpost.php?p=150060047&postcount=559

kingkitty: kalor http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showpost.php?p=150093635&postcount=564

lordofcastamere: johnnyquickknives http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showpost.php?p=150098624&postcount=566

traube: kalor http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showpost.php?p=150104261&postcount=568

timeaisis: irfaanator http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showpost.php?p=150104387&postcount=569

staydead: amirox http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showpost.php?p=150104534&postcount=570

el topo: johnnyquickknives http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showpost.php?p=150112805&postcount=575

mattyG: johnnyquickknives http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showpost.php?p=150118121&postcount=583

johnnyquickknives: 5
kalor: 4
irfaanator: 2
timeaisis: 1
nin1000: 1
palmer: 1
karkador: 1
amirox: 1

This is the second time that Karkador has made a vote or post that turned the tide towards eventually hanging a townsperson. On Day 1 it was his post finishing off Egruntz's self destruction. On Day 2 it was the first vote for Johnny that built off a theory post Foshy had made 5 days before. Then other people hopped on the train and Johnny's death just snuck by.

I'm not suggesting that these people are all Mafia, but I think some are, and they saw the vote was going in a way they didn't want and decided to change it since it wasn't going particularly strongly in any direction. So they see Foshy's post, decide to piggy back off that and start the vote on Johnny, then kill Foshy at night to legitimizes the progression of the Johnny vote since the original idea came from a now confirmed tourist.

They also justified the voting for Johnny play with the "oh, people who voted for him died, but that would be a dumb to decide who to kill, unless that's exactly what he wants us to think!" which is a narrative they probably set up purposefully with the eventual plan of voting this way.

Vote: Karkador