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So no double kill unless it was blocked. Not sure why they went after irfaanator when he wasn't really influential and he was more suspected than trusted, I feel like. Maybe another target shift? Wonder if anyone got an owl again.
Otherwise, I fucking told you guys not to lynch kalor! I'll be back to post more thoughts about the voters later.
Otherwise, I fucking told you guys not to lynch kalor! I'll be back to post more thoughts about the voters later.
I think there are 2 potential killers out there. It could be either
1. Two of them Mafia alligned ( which seems rather unlikely seen that it would make the Mafia overpowered. )
2. One of them is Mafia alligned and the other one is a lonesome killer.
since one of them was blocked from another role ( thank you for that ,whoever you are )
we only got one death this night ( besides the lynching of Kalor ).
tomakasatnav
Member
For my own reference as much as anything, but in case others need a reminder of who's left and their voting activity
AbsolutBro - (Didn't vote, Didn't vote, Didn't vote, Didn't vote)
Amir0x - (No Lynch, Didn't vote, Kalor, Kalor)
El Topo - (No Lynch, egruntz, johnnyquicknives, Didn't vote)
Karkador - (No Lynch, egruntz, johnnyquicknives, Didn't vote)
kingkitty - (No Lynch, Didn't vote, Kalor, Kalor)
Lord of Castamere - (No Lynch, egruntz, johnnyquicknives, No Lynch)
Mattyg - (Didn't vote, Didn't vote, johnnyquicknives, Didn't vote)
nin1000 - (No Lynch, Didn't vote, Didn't vote, Didn't vote)
Palmer_v1 - (No Lynch, Didn't vote, irfanaator, Amir0x)
pants - (No Lynch, egruntz, Amir0x, No Lynch)
QuantumBro - (No Lynch, Didn't vote, Kalor, No Lynch)
Rembrandt - (Didn't vote, egruntz, Didn't vote, Kalor)
RobotNinjaHornets - (No Lynch, Didn't vote, Didn't vote, Kalor)
StayDead - (Didn't vote [replaced Xpike], egruntz, Amir0x, Didn't vote)
Timeasis - (Didn't vote, egruntz, irfanaator, Kalor)
tomakasatnav - (Didn't vote, Didn't vote, irfanaator, Didn't vote)
traube - (No Lynch, No Lynch, Kalor, Kalor)
ultron_87 - (Didn't vote, No Lynch, Karkador, Amir0x)
Zippedpinhead - (No Lynch, egruntz, Didn't vote, Amir0x)
Hopefully there aren't any mistakes, taken from Crab's vote posts.
AbsolutBro - (Didn't vote, Didn't vote, Didn't vote, Didn't vote)
Amir0x - (No Lynch, Didn't vote, Kalor, Kalor)
El Topo - (No Lynch, egruntz, johnnyquicknives, Didn't vote)
Karkador - (No Lynch, egruntz, johnnyquicknives, Didn't vote)
kingkitty - (No Lynch, Didn't vote, Kalor, Kalor)
Lord of Castamere - (No Lynch, egruntz, johnnyquicknives, No Lynch)
Mattyg - (Didn't vote, Didn't vote, johnnyquicknives, Didn't vote)
nin1000 - (No Lynch, Didn't vote, Didn't vote, Didn't vote)
Palmer_v1 - (No Lynch, Didn't vote, irfanaator, Amir0x)
pants - (No Lynch, egruntz, Amir0x, No Lynch)
QuantumBro - (No Lynch, Didn't vote, Kalor, No Lynch)
Rembrandt - (Didn't vote, egruntz, Didn't vote, Kalor)
RobotNinjaHornets - (No Lynch, Didn't vote, Didn't vote, Kalor)
StayDead - (Didn't vote [replaced Xpike], egruntz, Amir0x, Didn't vote)
Timeasis - (Didn't vote, egruntz, irfanaator, Kalor)
tomakasatnav - (Didn't vote, Didn't vote, irfanaator, Didn't vote)
traube - (No Lynch, No Lynch, Kalor, Kalor)
ultron_87 - (Didn't vote, No Lynch, Karkador, Amir0x)
Zippedpinhead - (No Lynch, egruntz, Didn't vote, Amir0x)
Hopefully there aren't any mistakes, taken from Crab's vote posts.
I think you should add erguntz to that list.
I'm happy to be "investigated" for jumping on the egruntz train, but when I voted there was a) no chance in hell anyone else would be bandwagoned in at the last second or b) that my vote was going to change the outcome.
I chose not to vote (although I was late) last time since I didn't want to force a tiebreak or get someone lynched I had no suspicions for. It's safe to say that I, alongside pants had issues with the way amir0x was posting before, but I, maybe stupidly accepted his excuses. Perhaps I was wrong, but I think if we look heavily into the people voting for Kalor last time and find even just one mafian, we really need to look long and hard at Amir0x as he'd be a likely mafian being defended.
I'm not saying at this time I believe it is Amir0x, but it's a strong possibility if we find a mafian or two voting Kalor.
AbsolutBro
Member
I actually did vote for Amir0x last time, but Crab didn't see it.
Kalor was an ordinary tourist, and while that doesn't guarantee that Amir0x is mafia I stand by my vote.
tomakasatnav
Member
Yeah, I didn't put in any votes that missed the deadline, and just went with Crab's summary posts. Sorry if it's misleading anywhere.
AbsolutBro
Member
No worries. Apparently I glossed over Crab's comment about really late votes myself.
It's my first time playing a mafia game so I admit I have been extremely hesitant to put too much out there. As the game has gone on that's sort of going by the wayside.
Kalor: 7 / 11 [kingkitty, Amir0x, Timeaisis, Rembrandt, traube, irfaanator, RobotNinjaHornets]
These are the names we need to consider. I'm particularly suspicious of timeasis now. I just don't trust any of his reasoning for voting kalor. Felt like he threw a lot of convoluted arguments at the role swap thing just to get people to vote for him when others made far more sense. He and amir0x top my list for the moment.
These are the names we need to consider. I'm particularly suspicious of timeasis now. I just don't trust any of his reasoning for voting kalor. Felt like he threw a lot of convoluted arguments at the role swap thing just to get people to vote for him when others made far more sense. He and amir0x top my list for the moment.
Zippedpinhead
Member
I know it's the weekend, and one where a holiday that takes us away from computers occurs, so a lot of normal posters have been busy.
However, it's really weird that some our heavys eight posters who voted for kalor haven't posted yet...
I'm tempted to drop a vote for amir0x right away. He wasn't the person who started the whole kalor thing (that was QuantumBro two "days" ago) but I feel his actions "on the whole" have been the most suspicious.
Another good one would be timeasis, he seems really town, but his actions lately have been weird.
Also everyone who voted "no lynch", why did you do that? By voting no lunch you doomed kalor as he had a plurality of votes?
However, it's really weird that some our heavys eight posters who voted for kalor haven't posted yet...
I'm tempted to drop a vote for amir0x right away. He wasn't the person who started the whole kalor thing (that was QuantumBro two "days" ago) but I feel his actions "on the whole" have been the most suspicious.
Another good one would be timeasis, he seems really town, but his actions lately have been weird.
Also everyone who voted "no lynch", why did you do that? By voting no lunch you doomed kalor as he had a plurality of votes?
Just checking in because I haven't posted in a while. Been busy this weekend, so apologies.
I'll admit I was wrong about Kalor, but I still stand by my reasoning with the switcher. Likely it was a ploy all along, which fooled me. There's obviously lots more going on behind the scenes than we can even imagine.
Anyway, I'll post some updated thoughts tomorrow, but I will say that y'all have every right to consider me suspicious now. We need to analyze everyone's reading for voting Kalor, including mine.
I'll admit I was wrong about Kalor, but I still stand by my reasoning with the switcher. Likely it was a ploy all along, which fooled me. There's obviously lots more going on behind the scenes than we can even imagine.
Anyway, I'll post some updated thoughts tomorrow, but I will say that y'all have every right to consider me suspicious now. We need to analyze everyone's reading for voting Kalor, including mine.
I agree that any no lynch or no votes were as bad as directly voting for kalor.
I voted for Amir0x yesterday, actually. Just thought I'd point that out.
Alright, I'm sick of nothing happening as we get picked off one or two at a time at night and kill each other as well. Also, I think I'm probably going to die soon. So, time to be dramatic.
I have a role that lets me target someone at night and find out who else targets them. Im on the town side.
Im not going to say who targeted each person at this time (though I do have those names), because that would likely be blowing more Town roles cover than Mafia members, but I think there is stuff we can learn simply by the numbers. I think some insights into what has been happening at night will help things instead of us stumbling about entirely blindly. Also, this will hopefully lend me legitimacy in the eyes of those who know that they did target these people each night.
Night 1: I targeted Palmer_V1. He was targeted by one other person.
Not much I can say about this. I picked Palmer as someone who had at least posted a bunch. Someone might know something about Palmer? But it couldve been a more offensive role like a role blocker making a similar random guess.
Night 2: I targeted Timeaisis. He was targeted by three other people.
So a lot of people looked at Time this night. He was pretty talky, so that makes sense. This was the night that Duress died. My current theory is that one of these people was a Mafia trying to kill Time, another was a town doctor preventing that kill, and a third was something else. That would explain why only one person died that night. So, I think Timeaisis is town.
Night 3: Back to Palmer_V1. He was visited by one person.
I went back to Palmer as a semi random guess to try and catch a Mafia killer in the act, but didnt luck out. Shrug. We know theres another chance that someone might have some info.
Night 4: I got role blocked.
Assuming a traditional blocking role, someone targeted me to prevent me from doing anything. That suggests that someone on the Mafia team might think I have a power role, based on what Ive been saying/doing in the thread.
Which is accurate, I suppose, since I do indeed have a role. However, I havent really used the info Ive gotten from my role to develop my suspicions, since the only X person is obviously a Mafia I can get is if I get lucky and pick someone as they get killed and see who did it. I just have a list of people who have roles in some capacity, but not which team they're on. I'm guessing that roles are more likely to be on Town, but I really have no way to know.
This happening to me also makes me feel more okay about coming out like this, since my usefulness might be over due to blocks and/or I might be next on the kill list. Might have just survived last night so that I wasn't killed in proximity to voting for people to keep their name's clean. I'm okay with making myself a target like this, since I seem to be one already.
Soooooo in summary, my Night 2 report plus only one person dying that night suggests to me Timeaisis is probably cool and on the Town side.
Getting blocked on Night 4 suggests that my voting for Karkador and voting for Amirox seem to have risen the Mafias ire. Those two have pretty good records of voting for Townspeople too. Yup.
I have a role that lets me target someone at night and find out who else targets them. Im on the town side.
Im not going to say who targeted each person at this time (though I do have those names), because that would likely be blowing more Town roles cover than Mafia members, but I think there is stuff we can learn simply by the numbers. I think some insights into what has been happening at night will help things instead of us stumbling about entirely blindly. Also, this will hopefully lend me legitimacy in the eyes of those who know that they did target these people each night.
Night 1: I targeted Palmer_V1. He was targeted by one other person.
Not much I can say about this. I picked Palmer as someone who had at least posted a bunch. Someone might know something about Palmer? But it couldve been a more offensive role like a role blocker making a similar random guess.
Night 2: I targeted Timeaisis. He was targeted by three other people.
So a lot of people looked at Time this night. He was pretty talky, so that makes sense. This was the night that Duress died. My current theory is that one of these people was a Mafia trying to kill Time, another was a town doctor preventing that kill, and a third was something else. That would explain why only one person died that night. So, I think Timeaisis is town.
Night 3: Back to Palmer_V1. He was visited by one person.
I went back to Palmer as a semi random guess to try and catch a Mafia killer in the act, but didnt luck out. Shrug. We know theres another chance that someone might have some info.
Night 4: I got role blocked.
Assuming a traditional blocking role, someone targeted me to prevent me from doing anything. That suggests that someone on the Mafia team might think I have a power role, based on what Ive been saying/doing in the thread.
Which is accurate, I suppose, since I do indeed have a role. However, I havent really used the info Ive gotten from my role to develop my suspicions, since the only X person is obviously a Mafia I can get is if I get lucky and pick someone as they get killed and see who did it. I just have a list of people who have roles in some capacity, but not which team they're on. I'm guessing that roles are more likely to be on Town, but I really have no way to know.
This happening to me also makes me feel more okay about coming out like this, since my usefulness might be over due to blocks and/or I might be next on the kill list. Might have just survived last night so that I wasn't killed in proximity to voting for people to keep their name's clean. I'm okay with making myself a target like this, since I seem to be one already.
Soooooo in summary, my Night 2 report plus only one person dying that night suggests to me Timeaisis is probably cool and on the Town side.
Getting blocked on Night 4 suggests that my voting for Karkador and voting for Amirox seem to have risen the Mafias ire. Those two have pretty good records of voting for Townspeople too. Yup.
Zippedpinhead
Member
Or that switchng role! That's five possibilities, though most likely two of them were the doctor and a killing role. Especially since only one person died.
Still it's a lot to work on.
It means that Palmer and timeasis are most likely town (with the multiple "looks" at Palmer, and the big hit on timeasis).
Ultron87, can you say if some of the role usages were the same people on different nights?
QuantumBro
Banned
As I said when I voted, I didn't feel like there was enough evidence at the time for me to believe the Amir0x was a mafia member.
Thanks for posting all the information you have! I wouldn't happen to be one of the names on that list, would I?
I really hope ultron87 says that either you or me were not involved with Timeaisis on night 2. Otherwise, it's going to be one hell of a clusterfuck figuring out what happened that night. I'm going to have to ask Crab some clarification questions in the meantime.
Getting back to ultons post made me rise an eye brown there.
He said
3 roles involved
Karkador seems to claim that he was involved that night. As I doubt he would claim mafia this means he would be one of the good guys
Quantum bro on the other hand asks,or says that he was involved that night aswell.
As quantum stated the day before that he was a power role, this means that Karkador could either be the mentioned doc or a mafia role. Since there were 3 persons looking into timeasis,this got a lot more interesting!
Sorry for the bad formatting, writing from the phone.
He said
3 roles involved
Karkador seems to claim that he was involved that night. As I doubt he would claim mafia this means he would be one of the good guys
Quantum bro on the other hand asks,or says that he was involved that night aswell.
As quantum stated the day before that he was a power role, this means that Karkador could either be the mentioned doc or a mafia role. Since there were 3 persons looking into timeasis,this got a lot more interesting!
Sorry for the bad formatting, writing from the phone.
AlteredForms
Banned
Hold on for just a moment. NeoGAF has a Mafia game? I've been playing on previous forums years ago. I'm getting in for the next match!
Zippedpinhead
Member
The issue wasn't that you thought or did not think amir0x was mafia, but that by voting no lynch you doomed kalor. By the time the last few no lynch votes came in, the only way to save kalor would have been a vote tie.
That's the issue and why those no lynch votes were so frustrating. My interpretation of that comes out to them saying "I don't care if kalor dies, I just don't want to vote for him or get blood on my hands with someone else"
I think we should consider everyone here in this game as no one besides Ultron87 made a pro town move.
Sad to hear your nonding with timeasis broke
pants
Member
This is silly logic.
Zippedpinhead
Member
Why? He had said he didn't want to vote for either, and didn't think either should get lynched that day, but then he didn't do anything about it.
It's not just who you vote for but how you vote.
I actually think QuantumBro is town, just trying to show him why his vote last night didn't actually do anything.
pants
Member
Speaking specifically for myself. I was never going to 'save' Kalor because I felt he was more suspicious than Amir0x yet i wanted a no lynch since i dont think either of them are guilty. I voted no lynch to reflect this.
To say someone should vote Amir0x to force a 'no lynch' like I said when he did it is pissing off 13 active voters for the sake of your own vanity. If someone had voted that way I would immediately vote for them when the day phase opened, even if I knew they were 100% innocent, because that's a big fuck you to everyone that put themselves out there to vote and supply their arguments. No one is bigger than the town, if you cant state your case convincingly and rely on such trickery you're impeding the process.
To say someone should vote Amir0x to force a 'no lynch' like I said when he did it is pissing off 13 active voters for the sake of your own vanity. If someone had voted that way I would immediately vote for them when the day phase opened, even if I knew they were 100% innocent, because that's a big fuck you to everyone that put themselves out there to vote and supply their arguments. No one is bigger than the town, if you cant state your case convincingly and rely on such trickery you're impeding the process.
Zippedpinhead
Member
I completely agree, except not everyone is voting. In fact none of our lynches have been a complete consensus and have all been "plurality votes". By fracturing the town the mafia have been able to steer our votes towards other townies (in fact I would bet half of the kalor votes are mafia). If the goal was to not kill anyone yesterday that was the only play.
Vanity has nothing to do with it. Stopping the mafia from running our lynches should be the goal.
Zippedpinhead
Member
Exactly, the longer we are in the game without killing a mafia, and the more fractured our votes are the more likely the mafia can swing votes towards town or block a mafia kill.
I gaurantee you that the mafia would do a vote tie no lynch to save themselves if they can.
Thats the reason why, although I missed the deadline that I voted for no lynch. I didn't want to force a tie as I knew it'd be bad news as Im sure I mentioned before.
pants
Member
The mafia are never going to vote as a block so at least they cant overpower us, this is our advantage. We have to believe by discussing it as openly and transparently as possible, the fact that they cant really block vote will ensure they cant really tamper too much. We just need to stick to it and not waver. What we are lacking so far is communication, we all post too little (I dont want this thread to be filled up by nonsense posts but I do feel we arent all always sharing our thoughts enough) ultron87 has done the right thing here by laying it all out when he suspected that he was in a bind, I'm a bit dissapointed that it's resulted in 10 posts in the last 12 hours.
I sincerely believe they have been voting for each other in low risk votes so as to have proof they arent mafia when one of them falls. I mean what better out can you have that showing you voted for a mafioso when they go?
pants
Member
The first thing we're all going to do when we nail a Mafia is see how they voted previously correct? then we could just go through the votes and notice the same block of 3 - 4 guys voting together and they'd be toast. I assume they are voting for each other and mixing up their votes as much as possible to not appear to be a voting block.
Also I disagree. I think they will double down and sacrifice one of their own if it will take suspicion away from them for a few rounds. I can see a play where they even go into a full on thread spat with each other to strongly imply they arent together.
I mean ask yourself what you would do if you were mafia, you wouldn't do the most obvious things ever. People on neogaf in general are a bit above average intellect wise.
I dont, no one does. All we have are reasonable assumptions and data ultron gave us.
Yes, you were both on my report for Night 2, along with one other.
I didn't really intend to put anyone on blast and cause them to reveal that they have a role (which is why I didn't name names), but here we are. I feel like if you guys are going to claim you have a role you might as well go all the way at this point instead of holding back any potential info.
Zippedpinhead
Member
Karkador, ultron87, and QuantumBro
At least with two killers we can figure out if there is a town aligned killer or two mafia killer roles. A town aligned killer won't target you three (assuming your roles are town), two mafia aligned killers will.
So we can learn a lot, regardless of what you share, but if you feel comfortable sharing some specifics that would be awesome
At least with two killers we can figure out if there is a town aligned killer or two mafia killer roles. A town aligned killer won't target you three (assuming your roles are town), two mafia aligned killers will.
So we can learn a lot, regardless of what you share, but if you feel comfortable sharing some specifics that would be awesome
Well now we have three more potential targets for mafia tonight. I hate to say it, but you guys might as well roleclaim at this point.
Once we establish what QuantumBro and Karkador are, we may be able to suss out what the other person is. Especially if one are investigators of some kind and have some more info on some people.
Once we establish what QuantumBro and Karkador are, we may be able to suss out what the other person is. Especially if one are investigators of some kind and have some more info on some people.
QuantumBro
Banned
No worries, I'm a bit surprised I survived last night, so I'm not too worried about being a target tonight. It'd be a lot easier if we could communicate with PMs. You shouldn't reveal the last person, since they might not be Mafia.
I'm waiting on Crab to answer a few questions I have and then I'll reveal my role and the information I know for night two.
Err, woah, hang on. I said "let's be careful how we talk about this" because I think we can do this without roleclaiming. At least, I don't feel the need to reveal my role just yet.
I came out for two reasons:
1) It's clear now that ultron was nominating me based on this info, but I always got a sense that he was working with an incomplete picture - and I was right. Still, I thought he was being as honest as he could be, and I now believe he's good - so I've never retaliated with a nomination, just counter-arguments. Also, he's still alive after two days of putting heat on me, so that should say something.
2) We can't be led astray again with shaky information that is at the mercy of one person's discretion, like the last day. I am vouching for his info to confirm that we can work with this.
I came out for two reasons:
1) It's clear now that ultron was nominating me based on this info, but I always got a sense that he was working with an incomplete picture - and I was right. Still, I thought he was being as honest as he could be, and I now believe he's good - so I've never retaliated with a nomination, just counter-arguments. Also, he's still alive after two days of putting heat on me, so that should say something.
2) We can't be led astray again with shaky information that is at the mercy of one person's discretion, like the last day. I am vouching for his info to confirm that we can work with this.
It's true, many of us (myself included) fell into that trap yesterday. I do, however, think we have much greater opportunity now. We can individually corroborate ultron's claims much better if we reveal some information on ourselves.
Ultron has a total of 3 names. Two of which we now know. If we include myself and ultron, that's five members we can deduce the affiliation of (assuming we discover the 3rd, at ultron's discretion). Unlike QuantumBro' switch information, which was more or less a blind name-drop with no added info, this we can individually credit or discredit.
I think it's in our best interest for each of us to roleclaim at this point. I understand we're at a point where roleclaiming is painting an obvious target on one's back, but honestly, by willingly admitting you were on ultron's list you've already revealed you are, at the very least, a power role. I do understand your hesitance, however. If one of the three are indeed a doctor or a cop, revealing might be a mistake at this juncture, especially if there's little information gained from it. But if it leads to having a good feel on someone being mafia, it may be worth it.
I'm very much willing to roleclaim, as I'll need to verify ultron's story and further corroborate QuantumBro's information (whatever it may be), as it will at the very least, determine the innocence of these posters. But I will agree that we need to tread lightly here. The order at which we roleclaim is very important.
Say, I roleclaim first. You, QuantumBro and the third mystery person now have a chance to parrot my info, disguising yourselves. A mafia could for example, claim role cop, and just use what I claimed immediately. We'd have no idea whether or not they'd be telling the truth at that juncture. It's tricky, so I think we should discuss how we'll go about it.
However, returning to the point of your post, Karkador. Do you have an idea of how we could go about utilizing this information without having to individuall roleclaim? I was thinking something like a "vote" system where each person involved would basically agree to the narrative that is presented, or deny it. Say, Ultron reveals all three names, and gives an account of what he thinks happened. Then, all four of us could vote to "agree" or "deny" his account. It's true a person's role could still be deduced, but we'd be able to, eventually reach a narrative of which we're all in agreement, thereby having a good read on what went down night 2 without explicitly indentifying anyone.
For example:
Ultron says something along the lines of:
"Kark, quantumbro, and ??? all targeted Timeaisis night 2. One of them tried to kill him, one of them protected him, and one investigated him. The investigator concluded he was Town and a [some role]"
Then, we four vote on this information. Considering it contains lots of individual pieces, it will be difficult for mafia to determine what part we disagree with if we disagree. If we don't come to a unanimous agree/disagree, Ultron (or someone else, possibly) paints a different possible account. We continue voting until we find one that we all agree on.
Sure, it's not failsafe, but we can think outside the box here to avoid roleclaiming, if we want to.
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