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Mafia |OT| When Death is on the Line

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Karkador

Banned
His ability was a one time use, and it seems like he never got a chance to use it. I guess it's POSSIBLE two separate one-shot abilities were used on those first kill attempts at night, but it's more likely that he was waiting for an opportune time, and we still have two active killers; the mafia, and one other undetirmined.

Right, I just mean that if there are night-phasers who have kill abilities, and the "Vigilante" is the Town-aligned one, then maybe the "God Fearing American" was that role - still leaving it open for there to be Mafia or Neutral aligned night-phase killers.

As for johnnyquicknives's ability, I agree that he probably didn't use it. It was a one-shot ability. It would be a crazy shot in the dark on the first night, and for him to target Duress in revenge (and possibly suspecting he was Mafia tagging along with egruntz) on Night 2 would have been...not impossible, I guess, but maybe he figured that if Duress turned up Mafia, we would all let up off of him for the rest of the game. Still seems like a long shot.
 

ultron87

Member
Reposting for new page:

We need to start voting instead of waffling about on what side a role is on. If we start now we can at least have a shot of making a definitive decision instead of limping with a weak majority into hanging another townsperson. A 5-4 vote split like we had yesterday makes it incredibly easy for the Mafia to influence things to their advantage without doing anything particularly suspicious.

Let's look at the vote progression yesterday, as compiled by the departed Foshy: http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showpost.php?p=150120158&postcount=585
Roundup of the votes so far, because it's ending soon

quantumbro: kalor http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showpost.php?p=149296316&postcount=500

palmer: irfanaator http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showpost.php?p=149368568&postcount=510

amirox: kalor http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showpost.php?p=149613392&postcount=523

(kalor: irfanaator http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showpost.php?p=149685002&postcount=525 UNVOTE http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showpost.php?p=149824592&postcount=541)

ward: timeaisis http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showpost.php?p=149758934&postcount=536

johnnyquickknives: nin1000 http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showpost.php?p=149771123&postcount=538

irfanaator: palmer http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showpost.php?p=149996717&postcount=550

ultron: karkador http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showpost.php?p=150000749&postcount=552

karkador: johnnyquickknives http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showpost.php?p=150007766&postcount=554

foshy: johnnyquickknives http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showpost.php?p=150009368&postcount=555

pants: amirox http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showpost.php?p=150060047&postcount=559

kingkitty: kalor http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showpost.php?p=150093635&postcount=564

lordofcastamere: johnnyquickknives http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showpost.php?p=150098624&postcount=566

traube: kalor http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showpost.php?p=150104261&postcount=568

timeaisis: irfaanator http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showpost.php?p=150104387&postcount=569

staydead: amirox http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showpost.php?p=150104534&postcount=570

el topo: johnnyquickknives http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showpost.php?p=150112805&postcount=575

mattyG: johnnyquickknives http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showpost.php?p=150118121&postcount=583

johnnyquickknives: 5
kalor: 4
irfaanator: 2
timeaisis: 1
nin1000: 1
palmer: 1
karkador: 1
amirox: 1

This is the second time that Karkador has made a vote or post that turned the tide towards eventually hanging a townsperson. On Day 1 it was his post finishing off Egruntz's self destruction. On Day 2 it was the first vote for Johnny that built off a theory post Foshy had made 5 days before. Then other people hopped on the train and Johnny's death just snuck by.

I'm not suggesting that these people are all Mafia, but I think some are, and they saw the vote was going in a way they didn't want and decided to change it since it wasn't going particularly strongly in any direction. So they see Foshy's post, decide to piggy back off that and start the vote on Johnny, then kill Foshy at night to legitimizes the progression of the Johnny vote since the original idea came from a now confirmed tourist.

They also justified the voting for Johnny play with the "oh, people who voted for him died, but that would be a dumb to decide who to kill, unless that's exactly what he wants us to think!" which is a narrative they probably set up purposefully with the eventual plan of voting this way.

Vote: Karkador
 

Timeaisis

Member
Quoting myself for a new page. I think this warrants discussion.

Alright, so I had some thoughts on this matter. Firstly, there's two unanswered questions that are hanging over our heads that I think are very important to understand.

1. Is the extra killer mafia or town?
2. Is the "switcher" mafia or town?

So, let's go through the 'ol Timeaisis tries to list out the possibilities, starting with the extra killer being mafia.

Here's what we know
N1: Barry, [attempt on Duress?]
N2: Duress (required 2 hits, so we know the vig/hitman was active by this time), [attempt on Duress?]
N3: Foshy, Kalor (Kalor <-> Ward)

N3 - One Mafia hit and one Mafia hitman hit
a) Switcher is Mafia
Mafia and hitman target Foshy and Kalor, respectively. Mafia switcher switches Kalor for Ward to throw us off and create confusion.

b) Switcher is Town
Mafia goes for Foshy, hitman goes for Kalor. Kalor is protected by town switcher, likely someone who was against Lynching Kalor or Kalor himself is the Switcher.

N3 - One Mafia Hit and One Vigilante Hitt
a) Switcher is Mafia
Mafia targets Foshy, vigilante targets Kalor. Mafia Switcher protects Kalor from vigilante kill. This is interesting, because it would make sense for the Mafia to know the vigilante was likely to try to kill Kalor, seeing as Kalor had a lot of votes last night. This, of course, points to Kalor being mafia.

b) Switcher is Town
Mafia targets Foshy, vigilante targets Kalor. Switcher, who is on Kalor's side last night protects Kalor and switches him for Ward.

So what does this all mean? Well, it could mean a number of things, obviously. It all depends on if you think the second killer is mafia or town. I still think we have a vigilante, and not a mafia hitman. Why? Because they would have had to explicitly target Duress on day one or, they would've had to known by Day 2 Duress was a tough guy and double hit him.

I think the first is obviously more likely, but again, it would require the Mafia hitman to want to take out Duress Day 1, even though he wasn't being particularly active or troublesome, and then the hitman would have had to decide that he was worth trying to kill again on day 2, even though he survived the first time. This doesn't make a whole lot of sense to me. There were plenty of other high-profile Mafia targets on D2, and going for Duress again (without the guarantee that he'd even die, remember they don't know he's a tough guy yet) seems like a waste of a kill.

Therefore, it's my opinion that we have a vigilante. This aligns with my view of what a vigilante would want to do: progress the game and sniff out mafia.
D1: targets Duress for being inactive
D2: targets Duress again for thinking he has a special mafia role
D3: targets Kalor for suspecting he is mafia

Remember Kalor had the second most votes D3, and Duress was a prime suspect by Day 2. So it falls in line with the vig trying to kill a mafia. D1 Duress targeting was likely just killing off an inactive, which was recommended by me and many others on D1 anyway. So, it's likely the vigilante is "going with the flow" of the town's opinions and executing the second most popular opinion on any given day. This makes a lot of sense to me.

So where does that leave us, if the extra killer is a town vigilante? Well, here it is again. Again, it all depends on who the switcher is aligned with.

N3 - One Mafia Hit and One Vigilante Hitt
a) Switcher is Mafia
Mafia targets Foshy, vigilante targets Kalor. Mafia Switcher protects Kalor from vigilante kill. This is interesting, because it would make sense for the Mafia to know the vigilante was likely to try to kill Kalor, seeing as Kalor had a lot of votes last night. This, of course, points to Kalor being mafia.

b) Switcher is Town
Mafia targets Foshy, vigilante targets Kalor. Switcher, who is on Kalor's side last night protects Kalor and switches him for Ward.

So either the switcher is town and is trying to protect Kalor from the killer (because they were "pro-Kalor" yesterday) OR the switcher is Mafia and trying to protect Kalor from the vigilante. Protecting Kalor seems like a weird choice for a town player, unless they were really sure Kalor was going to get targeted, or really sure Kalor wasn't mafia. They were likely worried Kalor would be the hit of a vigilante, since he was a prime suspect last night. The second option, of course, is Kalor is the switcher. And thirdly, the most interesting of the all: Kalor is mafia and the mafia switcher protected him from a vigilante hit. And finally, just to enumerate all possibilities: Kalor is not mafia, and a mafia switcher protected him to create confusion

So we have, if my theory about a town vigilante is true, we've got four possibilities:
1. Kalor was protected by a town switcher who was worried about a vigilante hit
2. Kalor is the switcher and protected himself from a vigilante hit
3. Kalor if mafia and the mafia switcher protected him from a vigilante hit
4. Kalor is town and the mafia switcher protected him from a vigilante hit to create confusion


As weird as it sounds, I'm currently leaning towards P3.

I'm of the opinion that johnny did not use his one-shot ability and we do indeed have a vigilante among us.

There's a lot of townies, it's very reasonable to assume that there is a one-shot killer (johbnny) in addition to a regular vigilante. Thus, I stand by my conclusion that our vigilante has been killing along town's opinions.

D1: Targets Duress for being inactive, similar to many town's opinions that we lynch an inactive
D2: Targets Duress again after him not dying, and some people showing suspicion towards him, probably thinking he's a special mafia role
D3: Targets Kalor, thinking they are mafia in agreement with many townies who voted for him the day prior.

Our "second killer" seems very town-aligned to me. He's not picking off players with no suspicion or anything.

Therefore, as I said before, I believe that either the switcher is mafia and protected Kalor from a vigilante hit (they would be fearful for the vigilante after he killed Duress along town opinion, after all) or someone the switcher is town and really thought Kalor wasn't mafia, so he protected him.

Second one seems weirdly aligned with Kalor for me to believe. I didn't see anyone hugely defending Kalor in the previous days, and I don't really see a reason a switcher would protect him over other players.

Like I said in my previous post I think either:

1. Kalor is mafia and was protected by a mafia switcher
2. Kalor is the switcher and protected himself
3. Mafia is fucking with us by protecting Kalor, trying to get him lynched today

I'd like to hear everyone's opinion of all this. Especially Kalor.
 
Wouldn't johnnyquicknives have been the Vigilante equivalent?

I agree karkador, I don't think crab would have given the town two different night time kill actions. I think three night time kill actions are a lot, especially with this game being 30 people.

It would have given the town the ability to kill three people each day, and the mafia only one. I think this edge, even if we did now know about it, would tip the scales. Now each team having two kills (1 day, 1 night for town, 2 night for mafia).

So I'm very suspicious of everyone who thinks that the second kill last night was a town aligned vigilante. It is far more likely that the mafia has the two remaining killers.
 
Mis-read the "once per game" for Johnny.

Still, I'm thinking that there isn't a town aligned vigilante anymore. I could be wrong and If I am I hope he/she is a better shot next time.

Thoughts on the "switch", maybe it is a player switch? Where kalor and ward's abilities were switched and a random tourist was chosen to be told of the change.

That would mean that kalor and ward are both tourists. Even if this was a mafia move, it would mean that the cop would instantly have someone to investigate (kalor)

of course the cop couldn't tell us anything, he hasn't decided to reveal himself (if he exists) . But even one person knowing would do a lot to stem the tide.
 

Palmer_v1

Member
I agree that we need to start getting our votes on the books, but not specifically that Karkador should be that person. I've yet to Lynch an innocent, and until I'm proven wrong, I'll stick to my line of reasoning from before.

Vote: MattyG

As for the secondary killers, have we given up on the possibility of a serial killer or other unaligned role?

I don't think Johnny is definitive proof of there being no further town aligned killers either. It was a one shot ability, so we could still easily have a Vigilante on our side.

My biggest current issue is trying to understand the quantumbro note and apparent Kalor/ward switch. I'm growing frustrated at not know what roles are possibly in the game, to the point that Crab may even be using some that don't exist outside of this game.

We have someone that can apparently redirect targets, but not a lot of information on how or why. Another person (or possibly the same) is able to find out information about some night actions, and then send that information to another player. Is it random or targeted? Everyone also assumes we have a cop and doc, but who knows for sure.

Just feels like the nature of this game gives a huge advantage to the Mafia since they can freely share their roles aamongst each other. Maybe we have some roles that will balance it, but it's impossible to tell so far.
 

MattyG

Banned
I agree that we need to start getting our votes on the books, but not specifically that Karkador should be that person. I've yet to Lynch an innocent, and until I'm proven wrong, I'll stick to my line of reasoning from before.

Vote: MattyG

As for the secondary killers, have we given up on the possibility of a serial killer or other unaligned role?

I don't think Johnny is definitive proof of there being no further town aligned killers either. It was a one shot ability, so we could still easily have a Vigilante on our side.

My biggest current issue is trying to understand the quantumbro note and apparent Kalor/ward switch. I'm growing frustrated at not know what roles are possibly in the game, to the point that Crab may even be using some that don't exist outside of this game.

We have someone that can apparently redirect targets, but not a lot of information on how or why. Another person (or possibly the same) is able to find out information about some night actions, and then send that information to another player. Is it random or targeted? Everyone also assumes we have a cop and doc, but who knows for sure.

Just feels like the nature of this game gives a huge advantage to the Mafia since they can freely share their roles aamongst each other. Maybe we have some roles that will balance it, but it's impossible to tell so far.
Can you expand a little upon why you're voting for me, so I can maybe prove my innocence? Is it only because I was the last one to vote for Johnny and you thought I was "waffling"?
 

Kalor

Member
I'd like to hear everyone's opinion of all this. Especially Kalor.

Right now not knowing if the second killing role is town or neutral makes it difficult to determine exact motivations. It seems strange to me that the mafia might effectively have another kill at night which makes me lean towards a neutral killer. If the killer is town aligned then they have been careless in who they tried to kill.

In terms of the switcher, it's hard to tell if they are mafia aligned or not since all we have is what they did last night. I've been thinking that they were town aligned but the fact that they chose Ward is interesting. Since Ward was the first person to accuse me on D2 they could of tried to "frame" me the same way Johnny might of been framed to some extent.

I'm not ready to put down a vote just yet but I have a good idea who I want to pick.
 

Karkador

Banned
Reposting for new page:

We need to start voting instead of waffling about on what side a role is on. If we start now we can at least have a shot of making a definitive decision instead of limping with a weak majority into hanging another townsperson. A 5-4 vote split like we had yesterday makes it incredibly easy for the Mafia to influence things to their advantage without doing anything particularly suspicious. [/quote]

I don't know if you misread, but this is what I was calling for, too. I do not want indecisiveness in the votes, and for the same reason, as I said here:

But aside from that, I felt that we were being very ambivalent in deciding who to kill, and IMO that puts the ball in mafia and night-phaser's court too much.

Personally, I have cut back on spelling out how actions might help mafia, because I don't feel like handing them any helpful tactics whatsoever.


This is the second time that Karkador has made a vote or post that turned the tide towards eventually hanging a townsperson. On Day 1 it was his post finishing off Egruntz's self destruction. On Day 2 it was the first vote for Johnny that built off a theory post Foshy had made 5 days before. Then other people hopped on the train and Johnny's death just snuck by.

Yes, I have made mistakes, and I am hesitant to lead a charge again after yesterday's deaths (especially considering that it felt like it could have been Foshy or me). Everyone who is Town is bound to make mistakes - we are the "uninformed majority". I've tried to own up to the mistakes by offering as much information from the mistakes as we can get - and I still do think it's moving the game along, little by little. But I feel that you're misrepresenting things a bit.

I'm not suggesting that these people are all Mafia, but I think some are, and they saw the vote was going in a way they didn't want and decided to change it since it wasn't going particularly strongly in any direction. So they see Foshy's post, decide to piggy back off that and start the vote on Johnny, then kill Foshy at night to legitimizes the progression of the Johnny vote since the original idea came from a now confirmed tourist.

This is ignoring that Foshy himself didn't even vote for johnny until I voted for johnny, How are we supposed to piggyback on a post Foshy made, if Foshy made it after I did? and I explicitly voted for him because Foshy (and Timeaisis) made good arguments about it.. If I'm to be blamed for being too convincing, then hold others to the same standard, too...except, I wasn't even pushing that hard for johnny - I even told someone this:

If your tie-breaker favors Kalor getting lynched, then it seems you should vote Kalor from the start

El Topo is asking if the vote comes to a tie, can he automatically switch his vote - I told him to just straight-up vote for Kalor if he thinks he should be voted for. Why would I do that with the vote being so close? How does that fit into an orchestrated plan?


They also justified the voting for Johnny play with the "oh, people who voted for him died, but that would be a dumb to decide who to kill, unless that's exactly what he wants us to think!" which is a narrative they probably set up purposefully with the eventual plan of voting this way.

Okay, let's talk about what the Mafia can plausibly set up and orchestrate, because you are entering conspiracy theory territory.

We know from the Mafia interest thread that they have a chat room or something that they can communicate during the night phase.

Crab said:
Players who are allowed covert communication (mafia, and potentially some town power roles) will be given a secret third-party site to communicate on. This is so a) I can observe their communications in my role as moderator, and b) so that we can share it at the end for some fun. :p

I don't know how much communication is allowed on that, but it's probably significantly more than the pointing and pantomiming of a regular, in-person game of Mafia/Werewolf.

In order for them to setup any sort of coordinated attack or plan a narrative, they have to communicate there, during the night phase. That would lead me to believe that the Mafia doesn't have to actually say or interact much during the Day phase. Does that sound like a reasonable assumption? Some days ago, you said this:

]I don't like picking a low activity player. It doesn't seem that likely for a Mafia player to be less active.[/B] It is so incredibly easy to sound like an innocent while being active with text communication so it is really advantageous for them to be in here and typing arguments that lead the town astray. And if one of them was being inactive the mafia team has outside the thread ways to prod their members into being active once the conversation drifts to "kill the inactive people".

I disagree. There is a huge reason for why the Mafia doesn't have to be active, and it's because they can plan and make their moves entirely in this night phase chat room. Why even risk telegraphing moves to other Mafiosos during the day, when you can just plan there?

But speaking of telegraphing, it seems that in your post you've pretty much outlined exactly what you're doing now, which is to pick on a player who is "leading the town astray" because of his mistakes.

Mistakes that are pretty natural for the Town at this stage of the game. Gaining information is power for us, and you (as well as Amirox) have made it a point to underscore that we "aren't gaining any information", or "we have nothing to go on", despite there being some clear bits of info to take in. THAT is anti-town behavior, more so than anything else I've seen so far.

And now you're drawing attention away from what is clearly the fishiest and weirdest situation in the game so far to nominate me again? Are we all in on this conspiracy, again?
 

Palmer_v1

Member
Can you expand a little upon why you're voting for me, so I can maybe prove my innocence? Is it only because I was the last one to vote for Johnny and you thought I was "waffling"?

Yes, pretty much that. I appreciate your posted defenses, but it hasn't changed my mind yet.

I'm also still up for lynching Irfaanator, though.
 

MattyG

Banned
Yes, pretty much that. I appreciate your posted defenses, but it hasn't changed my mind yet.

I'm also still up for lynching Irfaanator, though.
Okay, that's fair enough I suppose. The only thing I can add in my defense is this-

Your whole theory seems to hinge on one thing; whether or not Kalor is a member of the mafia. If I understand your theory correct, you believe that I voted for Johnny because both Kalor and I are mafia, and you believe I was trying to steer the town away from voting for Kalor. However, if this were the case, why would I even mention Kalor if I never had any intention to vote for him? Why not just do what lordofcastamere did, cite Foshy's theory and immediately vote for Johnny? As I said before, the only reason I didn't vote for him immediately was because I thought we had more time to make up our minds than we did, and I intended to wait a while longer in case a more compelling theory emerged. When I realized that we had far less time than I though, I went with Johnny, who I'd already said was who I was leaning towards in the first place.

And as for the post of Johnny's I quoted and cited as suspicious, that was a genuine mistake on my part, and a pretty foolish one in hindsight. Now that we know Johnny is innocent, it seems so obvious that that was probably a joke. But at the time of voting, with the main argument for his guilt being that he was attempting to trick us into thinking he was "too obvious" to be mafia, it seemed to only reinforce his guilt.
 

pants

Member
I disagree. There is a huge reason for why the Mafia doesn't have to be active, and it's because they can plan and make their moves entirely in this night phase chat room. Why even risk telegraphing moves to other Mafiosos during the day, when you can just plan there?

This is why I generally look at who's most active as a sort of 'probably an ordinary townie' I feel the more power you have in this game the less likely you are going to try and sway people with words too. On that note sometimes being too vocal is suspicious as well.

About voting early, I havent made up my mind yet, I probably will during the course of the day as more posts come in.
 

ultron87

Member
You see, that's exactly it. No one had voted for Johnny yet. Foshy made a post awhile ago stating that he thought Johnny was Mafia, but then it just kind of dropped off without any votes. Until you brought it back up several days later and got the ball rolling on votes. You encouraged the idea and got some support behind it so Foshy and others would actually vote.

If I'm to be blamed for being too convincing, then hold others to the same standard, too...except, I wasn't even pushing that hard for johnny - I even told someone this:


El Topo is asking if the vote comes to a tie, can he automatically switch his vote - I told him to just straight-up vote for Kalor if he thinks he should be voted for. Why would I do that with the vote being so close? How does that fit into an orchestrated plan?
Either Kalor also is a townsperson or you could've called another Mafia in to make sure Johnny came out ahead.

(On the role switch conversation, I do think the person with the target switch ability is Mafia aligned, because that power just makes more sense from a mechanics perspective on that side. It basically functions like a role blocker. But we don't actually know if the kill was what was switched or if it was something else like a detective poking at Kalor or something along those lines.)

Okay, let's talk about what the Mafia can plausibly set up and orchestrate, because you are entering conspiracy theory territory.

We know from the Mafia interest thread that they have a chat room or something that they can communicate during the night phase.

I don't know how much communication is allowed on that, but it's probably significantly more than the pointing and pantomiming of a regular, in-person game of Mafia/Werewolf.

In order for them to setup any sort of coordinated attack or plan a narrative, they have to communicate there, during the night phase. That would lead me to believe that the Mafia doesn't have to actually say or interact much during the Day phase. Does that sound like a reasonable assumption? Some days ago, you said this:



I disagree. There is a huge reason for why the Mafia doesn't have to be active, and it's because they can plan and make their moves entirely in this night phase chat room. Why even risk telegraphing moves to other Mafiosos during the day, when you can just plan there?

I don't see anything suggesting that they can only communicate at night. And the sample role PM at the start suggests that they have a board where they can talk at any time. That makes it super easy to communicate and think "hey, we need to get them to vote for someone". "Oh, look Foshy was suspicious about Johnny, Kark go bring that up again."

But speaking of telegraphing, it seems that in your post you've pretty much outlined exactly what you're doing now, which is to pick on a player who is "leading the town astray" because of his mistakes.

Mistakes that are pretty natural for the Town at this stage of the game. Gaining information is power for us, and you (as well as Amirox) have made it a point to underscore that we "aren't gaining any information", or "we have nothing to go on", despite there being some clear bits of info to take in. THAT is anti-town behavior, more so than anything else I've seen so far.

And now you're drawing attention away from what is clearly the fishiest and weirdest situation in the game so far to nominate me again? Are we all in on this conspiracy, again?

What are these clear bits of info? You said it was okay to kill Johnny yesterday because that would confirm some stuff. What exactly did we learn from that? Please enlighten us.

I'm continuing to nominate you because of the actual facts we have to work on right now: who was killed at night, who was hanged, and who voted for them and when. Actions are what matter, not the words people can pour over forever and make sure they come out perfectly before they hit submit. And your actions have been pretty instrumental in the two mistakes the town has made so far.
 

Karkador

Banned
You see, that's exactly it. No one had voted for Johnny yet. Foshy made a post awhile ago stating that he thought Johnny was Mafia, but then it just kind of dropped off without any votes. Until you brought it back up several days later and got the ball rolling on votes. You encouraged the idea and got some support behind it so Foshy and others would actually vote.

They didn't vote for him yet, but they presented strong cases in favor of it - and if I recall, someone even said something like "I'll enter my vote for johnny later today, if nothing else comes up". I don't think those posters said all that without the intention of getting the ball rolling. I also don't see the issue with trying to get people to come to a consensus when a large split happens in the votes.

Either Kalor also is a townsperson or you could've called another Mafia in to make sure Johnny came out ahead.

I don't think Kalor is a townsperson, but I'm also pretty sure the Mafia can't talk to each other by day. I told him to vote for Kalor because he seemed intent on that, and because I didn't disagree with what was being said about Kalor.

(On the role switch conversation, I do think the person with the target switch ability is Mafia aligned, because that power just makes more sense from a mechanics perspective on that side. It basically functions like a role blocker. But we don't actually know if the kill was what was switched or if it was something else like a detective poking at Kalor or something along those lines.)

If the role switch ability involves someone dying (as in, if Ward died because Kalor was spared), then it seems that someone using that power probably has to know who they are using it on, and be okay with some other person dying for it.

If the switcher is Mafia, that pretty much guarentees that Kalor is also Mafia. There is no reason for a Mafia person to use that power on someone other than Mafia.

So, exactly why are you ignoring that?


I don't see anything suggesting that they can only communicate at night. And the sample role PM at the start suggests that they have a board where they can talk at any time. That makes it super easy to communicate and think "hey, we need to get them to vote for someone". "Oh, look Foshy was suspicious about Johnny, Kark go bring that up again."

I'm pretty sure it's been said somewhere. If not, we can ask Crab for confirmation.

In the table versions of these games, the rules typically make a point about all daytime communication needing to be public. No whispering, no passing notes. It would break the game if Mafia was allowed to chat at any time. It's arguably a little overpowered already if they can talk and strategize during the night.

What are these clear bits of info? You said it was okay to kill Johnny yesterday because that would confirm some stuff. What exactly did we learn from that? Please enlighten us.

I'm gonna make a separate post about it. I intended to, until this thing with the switcher came up.

I'm continuing to nominate you because of the actual facts we have to work on right now: who was killed at night, who was hanged, and who voted for them and when. Actions are what matter, not the words people can pour over forever and make sure they come out perfectly before they hit submit. And your actions have been pretty instrumental in the two mistakes the town has made so far.

Still not sure why you're singling me out as 'instrumental' any more than some other players. Egruntz was on his way out whether I voted or not. Johnny had already drawn suspicion from other active players, and the suspicion on him did not simply drop.

Also, for as much as you say actions are what matter, exactly where are your actions and contributions to the town? You have deliberately kept a low profile, and are now seizing on an opportunity to try to hang someone for
 

Karkador

Banned
*not being sure if people are town or mafia. I think all of my reasoning has been transparent, whether it's right or wrong.
 

Rembrandt

Banned
I'm leaning towards Kalor being Mafia. The idea of there being a town vigilante that's taking out the second most popular guess seems pretty likely. If so, I can see the switcher being Mafia aligned and protecting Kalor. I think switching with somebody that's been generally inactive is a smart way of not taking out somebody notable and drawing tons of attention to Kalor, especially with the votes and suspicions being as varied as they currently are. It's also likely that Kalor is town and the switcher and just protected himself, but that doesn't seem as plausible to me.

also why did that one poster get that note? does he have any special role or was it just random? It's possible he could be lying which would be pretty ballsy, but idk what's to gain from that besides for having the town eliminate another townie plus identify power members they should go for at night.

I'm leaning towards Kalor just because that's where all my suspicions lie, but I'll wait before casting a vote.
 

kingkitty

Member
Thinking this over, johnnyquickknives getting lynched doesn't give me any reason to change my vote from before.

And that mysterious message to quantumbro gives me more certainty that there's something fishy with kalor.

vote: kalor
 

Palmer_v1

Member
I really feel like lynching Kalor is a bad idea right now. I just wanted to say something rather than being as passive as when I thought Johnny was innocent and people started to gang up on him.
 

pants

Member
I dont think we're getting any better at voting tbh. We're forever voting based on the sparsest, most subjective evidence imaginable, not that I have anything better. I was hoping there would have been more posts by now so I could have more to work with at least.
 

Amir0x

Banned
Vote: Kalor

I haven't really seen any new arguments that are more convincing than the already flimsy ones I was using as guide for my vote on the last day.

I need something big to guide my hand already >_<
 
I'm tempted between voting for irfanaator and Kalor. largely the reasons from last vote.

Does anyone have any reason why I should vote for one over the other?
 

pants

Member
Day 4 will end on Tuesday 10th February at approximately 23:00 GMT.
That's more than a day and a half away for me. Sorry guys I'm going to vote closer to the end. I dont really have much to go on now and I'm not convinced of Kalor
 

Timeaisis

Member
I'm voting Kalor for reasons mentioned here. It's not the best to go off, but the switch move last nights puts some suspicion on him. It's the best I've got to go on right now. That being said, if someone has something convincing, by all means, share your thoughts.

I really feel like lynching Kalor is a bad idea right now. I just wanted to say something rather than being as passive as when I thought Johnny was innocent and people started to gang up on him.

You did call that, it's true. What's your reasoning behind Kalor being innocent? Honestly, I don't see any huge mafia tells in Kalor's play, but the fact that he's on a lot of people's radar and was targeted and protected last night just put me in enough of a place to vote for him. I can't show you specific posts either way where Kalor is being mafia. It's unfortunate, but I'm going off circumstances surrounding Kalor instead of Kalor's activity himself.

Anyway, I'd like to hear your thoughts, Palmer. I feel like we frequently share the same thought process.

But, for now.
VOTE: Kalor
 

Palmer_v1

Member
I generally just feel like he is one of the next obvious choices for Mafia to push us towards. I lean towards Tourist for him overall, and I feel like there are numerous other people who should be lynched before him. At this point in the game, if there are multiple people I suspect equally, I'd also prefer to lynch the less active.
 

Palmer_v1

Member
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
| Vote Count |
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

johnnyquicknives: 5 / 12 [MattyG, El Topo, Lord of Castamere, Foshy, Karkador]

Kalor: 4 / 12 [traube, kingkitty, Amir0x, Quantumbro]

irfanaator: 3 / 12 [Timeaisis, Palmer_v1, tomakasatnav]

Amir0x: 2 / 12 [pants, StayDead]

Timeaisis: 1 / 12 [Ward]

nin1000: 1 / 12 [johnnyquicknives]

Palmer_v1: 1 / 12 [irfanaator]

Karkador: 1 / 12 [ultron87]

The voting from previous day, just for reference. Following is our current votes for today.

We need to start voting instead of waffling about on what side a role is on. If we start now we can at least have a shot of making a definitive decision instead of limping with a weak majority into hanging another townsperson. A 5-4 vote split like we had yesterday makes it incredibly easy for the Mafia to influence things to their advantage without doing anything particularly suspicious.

Let's look at the vote progression yesterday, as compiled by the departed Foshy: http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showpost.php?p=150120158&postcount=585


This is the second time that Karkador has made a vote or post that turned the tide towards eventually hanging a townsperson. On Day 1 it was his post finishing off Egruntz's self destruction. On Day 2 it was the first vote for Johnny that built off a theory post Foshy had made 5 days before. Then other people hopped on the train and Johnny's death just snuck by.

I'm not suggesting that these people are all Mafia, but I think some are, and they saw the vote was going in a way they didn't want and decided to change it since it wasn't going particularly strongly in any direction. So they see Foshy's post, decide to piggy back off that and start the vote on Johnny, then kill Foshy at night to legitimizes the progression of the Johnny vote since the original idea came from a now confirmed tourist.

They also justified the voting for Johnny play with the "oh, people who voted for him died, but that would be a dumb to decide who to kill, unless that's exactly what he wants us to think!" which is a narrative they probably set up purposefully with the eventual plan of voting this way.

Vote: Karkador

I wondered about Ultron

Reposting for new page:

We need to start voting instead of waffling about on what side a role is on. If we start now we can at least have a shot of making a definitive decision instead of limping with a weak majority into hanging another townsperson. A 5-4 vote split like we had yesterday makes it incredibly easy for the Mafia to influence things to their advantage without doing anything particularly suspicious.

Let's look at the vote progression yesterday, as compiled by the departed Foshy: http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showpost.php?p=150120158&postcount=585


This is the second time that Karkador has made a vote or post that turned the tide towards eventually hanging a townsperson. On Day 1 it was his post finishing off Egruntz's self destruction. On Day 2 it was the first vote for Johnny that built off a theory post Foshy had made 5 days before. Then other people hopped on the train and Johnny's death just snuck by.

I'm not suggesting that these people are all Mafia, but I think some are, and they saw the vote was going in a way they didn't want and decided to change it since it wasn't going particularly strongly in any direction. So they see Foshy's post, decide to piggy back off that and start the vote on Johnny, then kill Foshy at night to legitimizes the progression of the Johnny vote since the original idea came from a now confirmed tourist.

They also justified the voting for Johnny play with the "oh, people who voted for him died, but that would be a dumb to decide who to kill, unless that's exactly what he wants us to think!" which is a narrative they probably set up purposefully with the eventual plan of voting this way.

Vote: Karkador

I wondered about ultron early on, but think he's probably town now. I'm not sure I agree about Karkador, but I trust Kalor more at this point.

I agree that we need to start getting our votes on the books, but not specifically that Karkador should be that person. I've yet to Lynch an innocent, and until I'm proven wrong, I'll stick to my line of reasoning from before.

Vote: MattyG

As for the secondary killers, have we given up on the possibility of a serial killer or other unaligned role?

I don't think Johnny is definitive proof of there being no further town aligned killers either. It was a one shot ability, so we could still easily have a Vigilante on our side.

My biggest current issue is trying to understand the quantumbro note and apparent Kalor/ward switch. I'm growing frustrated at not know what roles are possibly in the game, to the point that Crab may even be using some that don't exist outside of this game.

We have someone that can apparently redirect targets, but not a lot of information on how or why. Another person (or possibly the same) is able to find out information about some night actions, and then send that information to another player. Is it random or targeted? Everyone also assumes we have a cop and doc, but who knows for sure.

Just feels like the nature of this game gives a huge advantage to the Mafia since they can freely share their roles aamongst each other. Maybe we have some roles that will balance it, but it's impossible to tell so far.

My vote, for reference.

Thinking this over, johnnyquickknives getting lynched doesn't give me any reason to change my vote from before.

And that mysterious message to quantumbro gives me more certainty that there's something fishy with kalor.

vote: kalor

I distrust kingkitty more and more as the game goes on, but he did not pile on johnny yesterday. He did vote kalor yesterday as well. I want to go back and check all of his posts later.

Vote: Kalor

I haven't really seen any new arguments that are more convincing than the already flimsy ones I was using as guide for my vote on the last day.

I need something big to guide my hand already >_<

Really feel like he's Mafia, and is high on my list to lynch, but he did not vote for Johnny yesterday either. Again, second day voting for Kalor.

I'm voting Kalor for reasons mentioned here. It's not the best to go off, but the switch move last nights puts some suspicion on him. It's the best I've got to go on right now. That being said, if someone has something convincing, by all means, share your thoughts.



You did call that, it's true. What's your reasoning behind Kalor being innocent? Honestly, I don't see any huge mafia tells in Kalor's play, but the fact that he's on a lot of people's radar and was targeted and protected last night just put me in enough of a place to vote for him. I can't show you specific posts either way where Kalor is being mafia. It's unfortunate, but I'm going off circumstances surrounding Kalor instead of Kalor's activity himself.

Anyway, I'd like to hear your thoughts, Palmer. I feel like we frequently share the same thought process.

But, for now.
VOTE: Kalor

Really think we should be lynching some of the quieter players who have lynched innocent players.
 

Zatoth

Member
Not sure yet what vote.

I am still leaning towards Kalor.

The whole owl thing was really odd. Not sure what to make of it.

And I am not sure who targeted Kalor. But I don't think that Mafia would target the player who almost got lynched during the day. Kalor was a likely target for the next day anyway. So why would they pick him?
 

Palmer_v1

Member
Triple post! Reading back on Kingkitty, I didn't actually find anything that specifically worried me aside from being in the odd cluser of no lynch votes on day 1, and voting alongside Amir0x recently. That post, for reference:

Aside from his suspicions about Foshy, I did think there was some merit to what Barry pointed out about voting patterns. Particularly, that 7 minute cluster of No Lynch votes from the following, in order:

johnnyquicknives
Foshy
irfaanator
traube
kingkitty

Obviously now, 2 of those didn't work out, so maybe it's a bad idea to still pursue it, but there it is. Makes me want to go back and check Traube now! Traube, do you have any more thoughts about this post of yours?

Quoting myself here. One of my thoughts on the second day:

Oh. A lot happened yesterday.

Just some of my thoughts.

The whole filler-stuff of egruntz also struck me as odd. Looks like he felt himself cornered and so he went full defense by trying to analyse way too much out of some posts.

I don't really see the problem with "filler" posts. Some small talk is okay in my book.


Kalor, Timeaisis and Palmer: Palmer did not really seem to be offended by egruntz's post. But Kalor and Timeaisis both start do defend him and then all three of them vote to lynch egruntz.


I am also curious about Amir0x, who has not posted anything after Barry got lynched.



I have a feeling that at least one of those three is Mafia. Maybe even all three of them. But voting together would make them suspicious.

So that is something the Mafia would probably not do. But being aware of that they may do exactly that.

Now that Johnny did turn out to be innocent, I'm even more sure about Timeasis, and wonder if you are a mafia member trying to break up our trust.

Some more thoughts I had as I went back:

The people who voted egruntz:

Kalor, Timeaisis, Rembrandt, johnnyquicknives, Karkador, irfaanator, pants, Zippedpinhead, StayDead, El Topo, Lord of Castamere

The people who voted johnny: MattyG, El Topo, Lord of Castamere, Foshy, Karkador

Karkador, El Topo, and Lord of Castamere are on both those lists. Karkador has been discussed, but El Topo and LoC seem to be sliding under the radar, which I don't like.

El Topo's early posts don't stand out to me in particular, but this series bothers me, and makes me lean towards mafia even more:

I have no idea who mafia is, but it seems our choice boils down to johnnyquickknives and Kalor, not because of particularly convincing reasons though, but because they're ahead of the rest.

I'll be honest, I've had other suspects, e.g. Palmer_v1 (given e.g. inconsistencies in his behaviour/comments) and irfaanator. Amir0x is suspicious as well, but then I'm willing to believe he just forgot. So I have to vote for Kalor or johnnyquickknives? I'll go with my guts.

VOTE:johnnyquickknives

Stupid question: I don't want a tie because that means we wouldn't lynch someone. Can I set up my vote such that I automatically switch to Kalor if we're at a tie?

If I vote Kalor, he's ahead by two votes and almost through. People will look at that and think "Meh, might as well vote Kalor". Since I haven't had much time to follow the thread lately, I listened to my guts, but I don't want to force other people to do the same, especially if they were more active than I was.

That makes sense. I think the problem is that some people have been very vocal and active, which means there's a lot more "ammunition" against them and it puts them in the spotlight.

I honestly don't really like either nomination. I mean if I was mafia, I'd lay back and enjoy the town tearing itself apart, I wouldn't vote first and I wouldn't post really lengthy explanations on who could be mafia. From my little experience in real life mafia (or werewolf actually), it's usually those that stay in the shadows.

The problem is that there could always be that one guy that tries to fool us all, you know? Sometimes the obvious choice is the right one, even if it's not what I would do.

I completely agree with your analysis and in general I would expect mafia (and special roles I guess) to keep a low profile, but I think deliberately being inactive and then lying about it would be a dick move and I'm not sure if he'd do that. So either he lied about it or he forgot about it, in which case he probably has an unimportant role?

Lord of Castamere's posts don't seem particularly suspicious, however. Just worrisome due to inactivity and bad voting.

With all of that said, I'm changing my vote.

Vote: El Topo
 

El Topo

Member
I might explain myself more clearly later, but my inactivity has been solely due to real life stuff (and if absolutely necessary I can inform Crab why I've had so little time for this). It's difficult to keep track of all the activity in this thread, so while I've posted quite a bit at GAF, I've mostly stayed out of here because (simply put) I had little idea of what was going on here. Posting without knowing what has happened wouldn't have contributed to the thread and instead just confused people.

As for my vote for johnnyquickknives, he was on my list (aswas kalor) from earlier, so I decided to vote for him without (admittedly) having followed the thread much. I agree though that my inactivity - as I explained myself earlier - could have been interpreted as suspicious and that my votes have been, well, shitty.
 

Zatoth

Member
Traube, do you have any more thoughts about this post of yours?

Not much changed for me according to my suspicion for Kalor, Timeasis and you. Although I don't believe that all of you are Mafia. Can't imagine for Mafia to vote in a row.

Like I said I still lean towards Kalor.

I also don't trust Amir0x. I find it hard to believe that someone who is posting here so long does not use subscriptions. But I give him the benefit of the doubt for the moment.
 

Kalor

Member
So I can see where this day is likely going to end but I don't mind that much.

As for the owl thing, I think the switcher is a town member who thinks I am innocent and saw me as a potential target last night. Of course I can understand why people see them as a mafia role and see me as a mafia member if they follow that line of thinking. I was a potential target by the neutral or town aligned killer so the mafia wanted to protect me. Of course that would require me to be the mafia, which I'm not.

Personally I am going to vote for Amir0x based on a few points that keep nagging at me. They keep editing posts and some of them don't mention the fact that they edited it besides the small edit message. They haven't posted at all about their own suspicions and arguments for anyone, only relying on others arguments and never mention what posts they read. Here's the three posts where they focus on me for reference.
I still maintain Kalor right now since there is some weirdness going on there clearly now after that events, but I am withholding any votes til I read more of people's perspectives this round. I am lost.

Vote: Kalor

I haven't really seen any new arguments that are more convincing than the already flimsy ones I was using as guide for my vote on the last day.

I need something big to guide my hand already >_<
I guess I'm going to go with Kalor. But I really just am going with my gut at this point, I can't really decide definitively based on arguments made so far.

VOTE: Kalor

Initially looking at it, it appears to be three posts talking about their vote regarding me, but there are no arguments for why they suspect me. They rely on other peoples arguments and they don't even refer to the specific arguments that they are basing their vote on. I read through all their posts and I don't see any of their own arguments or suspicions, they jump onto a bandwagon and go with the flow. It will be me today and someone else tomorrow if they last that long. They also keep focusing on me. Sure I can understand why someone would suspect me but they barely even consider voting for other people in their posts.

The reason behind not talking about their suspicions could be that they don't want to accuse other mafia members or appear to be ignoring other people in their list.

For all I know I am reading into something that isn't there but it has been bugging me the more I read their posts. There are a few more posts that seem suspicious but I felt like I was reaching when I wrote about them.

If I do end up getting lynched or dying, I recommend looking at this post if Amir0x is alive tomorrow.

VOTE: Amir0x
 
VOTE:

I've had some suspicions about Amir0x for a while, from his gung-ho-ness to missing a day, to eagerly awaiting coming back. I want to vote for him, but I also think that his voting and posting has been very suspicious.

I also want to vote Kalor, I still think it's possible that he had a Mafia role that allowed him to switch a nighttime vigilante death with a random townsperson. This was probably a one time, night death only deal (similar to duress, where a day death probably would have killed him right out but he could survive one night deaths). This is assuming the second kill was a town aligned vigilante.

Another good target would be lord of castemere, he always seems to show up for the final vote and help kill a townsperson.
 
Voting for Kalor is a mistake. I'm damn sure after the events of last night that Kalor is town. I see no reason that anyone would save them, unless they knew that they were protown. It's possible that the Mafia saved them, but I think it was a Mafia hit. Killing Kalor would give a perfect blanket to any Mafia members who voted for Johnny. It would make it difficult for anyone to get singled out. It's also possible that Kalor was targeted because they're a Roled Town. In any case right now I believe the former. Which means a Mafia most likely voted for Johnny.

As for who that Mafia is, I'm not sure yet. There are reasons to be suspicious of all 4 of us. I'm still thinking it all over, but I'm probably going to vote for one of Johnnys lynchers before the day's up.
 

MattyG

Banned
Looking back at some of Amir0x's suspicious posting and voting behavior (mostly what was brought up in a few of the posts above) is making me lean towards voting for him. But just like last vote, I'm mostly basing this off of others' observations instead of my own, and I don't want to just jump on the bandwagon again and end up lynching another innocent. We still have a day and a half I believe, so I'll wait until tomorrow morning-ish to cast my vote, just in case anything else comes up.
 

Karkador

Banned
As for the owl thing, I think the switcher is a town member who thinks I am innocent and saw me as a potential target last night. Of course I can understand why people see them as a mafia role and see me as a mafia member if they follow that line of thinking. I was a potential target by the neutral or town aligned killer so the mafia wanted to protect me. Of course that would require me to be the mafia, which I'm not.

Kalor, I'm still really unclear of what the switcher thing with the owl meant, and I feel like you haven't given a good enough explanation.

Now, assuming that QuantumBro was not lying to us (which I'll get to later), I see three possibilities here.

Possibility #1) The switcher is Mafia, and they used their power on a known person to protect Kalor from a potential night-lynch, and deflect it to some player they know is not one of their own. Mafia would logically only protect other Mafia - even more so if the ability is a one-shot.

Possibility #2) The switcher is Neutral, and pretty much in this game to confuse the shit out of everyone and try to survive 'til the end. This switcher wouldn't really care who lives or dies, just who is likely to get bit at night. It's possible that this Neutral Switcher has been entering the command every night, but it only succeeded once.

Possibility #3) The switcher is Town, and this is where it gets a little complicated. If this Town switcher is not Kalor, then someone else decided - for whatever weird reason - to save a person they are not certain is aligned with them, by sacrificing someone who they are also not certain is aligned with them. Why would a Town player ever take this gamble? What is even the point of it?

If the Town switcher IS Kalor, then it's understandable (but still kind of brutal and dangerous) that he would use his ability to protect himself at night, sacrificing someone else in the process. Kalor could easily confirm this for us by telling us he's the switcher.

If the Neutral switcher is Kalor, then I think we should lynch, if only because he's not Town (even though he's more or less doing the same harm as a Town switcher)


NOW, WITH THAT OUT OF THE WAY


It's also entirely possible that this switcher thing is a red herring, and I will acknowledge that. It's possible that the switcher is irrelevant, and Ward was directly targeted.

The thing is, this is QuantumBro's report, and we're at the mercy of what he is or isn't saying. From what I know of these games, there is usually a role that can listen to commands people are inputting. If we assume QuantumBro has this role, I have to point out that he must have investigated a specific person to get that information.

This "letter from an owl" business is just weird, especially since he first asked if anyone else got a letter from an owl, as if this wasn't something he did with his role.

So that's what strikes me as odd. Why not reveal who he investigated, and shed more light on who this switcher is? Why this secrecy?


AS FOR THE AMIROX VOTE

I'm not against it, and I can be moved to vote this way. I pointed out in an earlier post that Mafia, in this particular game, have a clear incentive to stay quiet during the day, and while I don't like relying on "tells" to play the game, I think acting as if the Town has "nothing to go on" just feels like a move to undermine the daytime discussion.


Voting for Kalor is a mistake. I'm damn sure after the events of last night that Kalor is town. I see no reason that anyone would save them, unless they knew that they were protown. It's possible that the Mafia saved them, but I think it was a Mafia hit. Killing Kalor would give a perfect blanket to any Mafia members who voted for Johnny. It would make it difficult for anyone to get singled out. It's also possible that Kalor was targeted because they're a Roled Town. In any case right now I believe the former. Which means a Mafia most likely voted for Johnny.

What makes you "damn sure" it's a mistake? This makes me very curious, and I'm having trouble following your reasoning. Can you please elaborate?
 

Timeaisis

Member
Kalor, I'm still really unclear of what the switcher thing with the owl meant, and I feel like you haven't given a good enough explanation.

Now, assuming that QuantumBro was not lying to us (which I'll get to later), I see three possibilities here.

Possibility #1) The switcher is Mafia, and they used their power on a known person to protect Kalor from a potential night-lynch, and deflect it to some player they know is not one of their own. Mafia would logically only protect other Mafia - even more so if the ability is a one-shot.

Possibility #2) The switcher is Neutral, and pretty much in this game to confuse the shit out of everyone and try to survive 'til the end. This switcher wouldn't really care who lives or dies, just who is likely to get bit at night. It's possible that this Neutral Switcher has been entering the command every night, but it only succeeded once.

Possibility #3) The switcher is Town, and this is where it gets a little complicated. If this Town switcher is not Kalor, then someone else decided - for whatever weird reason - to save a person they are not certain is aligned with them, by sacrificing someone who they are also not certain is aligned with them. Why would a Town player ever take this gamble? What is even the point of it?

If the Town switcher IS Kalor, then it's understandable (but still kind of brutal and dangerous) that he would use his ability to protect himself at night, sacrificing someone else in the process. Kalor could easily confirm this for us by telling us he's the switcher.

If the Neutral switcher is Kalor, then I think we should lynch, if only because he's not Town (even though he's more or less doing the same harm as a Town switcher)


NOW, WITH THAT OUT OF THE WAY


It's also entirely possible that this switcher thing is a red herring, and I will acknowledge that. It's possible that the switcher is irrelevant, and Ward was directly targeted.

The thing is, this is QuantumBro's report, and we're at the mercy of what he is or isn't saying. From what I know of these games, there is usually a role that can listen to commands people are inputting. If we assume QuantumBro has this role, I have to point out that he must have investigated a specific person to get that information.

This "letter from an owl" business is just weird, especially since he first asked if anyone else got a letter from an owl, as if this wasn't something he did with his role.

So that's what strikes me as odd. Why not reveal who he investigated, and shed more light on who this switcher is? Why this secrecy?


AS FOR THE AMIROX VOTE

I'm not against it, and I can be moved to vote this way. I pointed out in an earlier post that Mafia, in this particular game, have a clear incentive to stay quiet during the day, and while I don't like relying on "tells" to play the game, I think acting as if the Town has "nothing to go on" just feels like a move to undermine the daytime discussion.




What makes you "damn sure" it's a mistake? This makes me very curious, and I'm having trouble following your reasoning. Can you please elaborate?

I agree with your assessment of the switcher. For the switcher to be town, he'd have to be taking a risk switching Kalor for Ward, both of which he has no idea knowing if both (or one) is town or mafia. It just seems like a gamble that isn't worth taking, especially with so many suspect of Kalor in the first place. So either they really really think Kalor is town, for some reason which we cannot fathom, or the switcher is Kalor. Those are the only two possibilities if the switcher is town.

The important bit here is if someone really, really, really thought Kalor was town and decided to protect him, don't you think we would have seen that reasoning written down at some point? Correct me if I'm wrong, but I've seen zero good defense of Kalor today or yesterday except for Kalor himself. Castamere just said "it's a mistake", but hasn't said anything further.

Now, if the switcher is mafia, it's either misdirection or they are protecting Kalor. Misdirection is a weird strategy here, however. Either they'd be utilizing a mafia hit on Kalor, then switching it to Ward to fool us, or figuring Kalor would be hit by a vigilante and switching it, again, to fool us. Both of these would require them to figure that we would notice their moves, and it would be reported by someone (QuantumBro, in this case). That's a pretty multi-layered plan, there, and requires a bunch of assumptions on the part of the mafia. Therefore, I'd conclude that a mafia switcher is protecting Kalor. It's the most logical use of mafia switcher, Kalor was high on the target list yesterday, it just makes sense.

So, finally, I come to the exact same conclusion I came to yesterday, with one extra addendum, thanks Karkador.

1. Kalor is mafia
2. Kalor is the switcher
3. Someone (the switcher) has a damn good reason why Kalor is town that they're not sharing


Of course, QuantumBro could be playing some crazy game here. In which case, you should speak up if you've got more information on these events. You've already painted a target on your back to the mafia by revealing the information in the first place, so it really doesn't do any good to hide any further information (if you have it).

Speak now or forever hold your peace, folks.
 
What makes you "damn sure" it's a mistake? This makes me very curious, and I'm having trouble following your reasoning. Can you please elaborate?

There is a possibility that the switch was Mafia based and the owl an unintentional by product. I'm not feeling it though, and the last thing I want to do is string up another innocent over a false Mafia ploy.

If Kalor is innocent that's two wasted weeks trying to lynch them with nothing to show for it.
 

Karkador

Banned
I'd also like to add that the Switcher could not have anticipated that someone would reveal their command, so I feel like the move itself was not made to throw us all off. We weren't supposed to see it. It was done primarily to protect someone, or it was done by Mafia to throw off the other killers (or vice-versa).
 

Karkador

Banned
There is a possibility that the switch was Mafia based and the owl an unintentional by product. I'm not feeling it though, and the last thing I want to do is string up another innocent over a false Mafia ploy.

If Kalor is innocent that's two wasted weeks trying to lynch them with nothing to show for it.

So you're saying that the Switcher's own role sends an owl out to notify a random person of their deed? I think the Switcher's role would probably tell them that happens though, in which case it WOULD be possible for the Switcher to have done it to deliberately throw us all off.

I don't know if an owl carrying a letter really makes thematic sense with that, but okay, it's also something to consider.

Now, I feel like QuantumBro could confirm whether or not that's the case.
 

ultron87

Member
I'm going to try to type some more stuff later tonight, but just wanted to say this in regards to the current conversation:

We don't know if the revealing of the switch command is part of the switcher role or if it some other role causing it to happen. The switch role itself could have the clause "If you use this and it changes the result of an action, a random player will receive a notification." Or there could be a role that lets you send another player's action to someone else.

The lack of any knowledge of what the roles are makes all this very difficult.
 
So you're saying that the Switcher's own role sends an owl out to notify a random person of their deed? I think the Switcher's role would probably tell them that happens though, in which case it WOULD be possible for the Switcher to have done it to deliberately throw us all off.

I'm not sure. The way I see it there are 3 main options.

A: Kalor Town
-Kalor is targeted by Mafia
-Switcher switches kill to Ward
- Kalor is switcher, random owl(or targeted owl) is sent to QuantumBro
- Third Party is Switcher, random owl(or targeted owl) is sent to QuantumBro

B: Kalor Mafia
-Kalor is targeted by Vigilante/Third Party
-Switcher switches kill to Ward
- Kalor is switcher, random owl(or targeted owl) is sent to QuantumBro
- Third Party is Switcher, random owl(or targeted owl) is sent to QuantumBro
- Mafia switches kill to protect Kalor, random owl(or targeted owl) is sent to QuantumBro

C: QuantumBro is Lying
-Kalor is targeted by Vigilante/Third Party/Mafia
-Switcher switches kill to Ward
- Quantumbro is switcher or lying, no owl was sent

I don't have enough evidence for a lynch, especially after what happened last day.
 
So I read through all the votes and I haven't found anyone to go with. I don't think Kalor is Mafia after the events of last night and the reasoning for suspecting Amirox is shallow at best, so what if he didn't add the thread to his subscriptions. I have one or two I'm looking at and I'll post some thoughts later tonight after doing a bit more research.

I'm surprised everyone thinks that the switcher was protecting Kalor, I think they were trying to protect Ward by switching him with someone who everyone thought was Mafia. That's why I'm having second thoughts on accusing Kalor and why I'm not going to vote for him this round.

NOW, WITH THAT OUT OF THE WAY


It's also entirely possible that this switcher thing is a red herring, and I will acknowledge that. It's possible that the switcher is irrelevant, and Ward was directly targeted.

The thing is, this is QuantumBro's report, and we're at the mercy of what he is or isn't saying. From what I know of these games, there is usually a role that can listen to commands people are inputting. If we assume QuantumBro has this role, I have to point out that he must have investigated a specific person to get that information.

This "letter from an owl" business is just weird, especially since he first asked if anyone else got a letter from an owl, as if this wasn't something he did with his role.

So that's what strikes me as odd. Why not reveal who he investigated, and shed more light on who this switcher is? Why this secrecy?

Of course, QuantumBro could be playing some crazy game here. In which case, you should speak up if you've got more information on these events. You've already painted a target on your back to the mafia by revealing the information in the first place, so it really doesn't do any good to hide any further information (if you have it).

Speak now or forever hold your peace, folks.

I had nothing to do with receiving the message, as I mentioned earlier if I had the power to investigate, I would've investigated Timeaisis last night. I have no idea why it was sent to me, it's also the only message I have received.

I'd also like to add that the Switcher could not have anticipated that someone would reveal their command, so I feel like the move itself was not made to throw us all off. We weren't supposed to see it. It was done primarily to protect someone, or it was done by Mafia to throw off the other killers (or vice-versa).

So you're saying that the Switcher's own role sends an owl out to notify a random person of their deed? I think the Switcher's role would probably tell them that happens though, in which case it WOULD be possible for the Switcher to have done it to deliberately throw us all off.

I don't know if an owl carrying a letter really makes thematic sense with that, but okay, it's also something to consider.

Now, I feel like QuantumBro could confirm whether or not that's the case.

I don't think the switcher and the owl are related. The pm I got made it seem like the owl was sent to me after the action occurred, by another person. Due to rules I am unable to post the message word for word, but if you have any questions, just ask and I'll do my best to answer them.
 

El Topo

Member
Alright, some shit is happening!

I'll accept El Topo's explanation for now, and change my vote(again)

Vote: Amir0x

Thanks. Again, sorry for not having been particularly active lately, at least the next few days I should have more time though. I'll try to contribute a bit more, which means first I have to read through the last few pages.
 

Karkador

Banned
So I read through all the votes and I haven't found anyone to go with. I don't think Kalor is Mafia after the events of last night and the reasoning for suspecting Amirox is shallow at best, so what if he didn't add the thread to his subscriptions. I have one or two I'm looking at and I'll post some thoughts later tonight after doing a bit more research.

It's not just that he didn't add the thread, it's more the general lack of care for the daytime discussion/participation. Like I said, in this particular game, where the Mafia apparently have their own nightphase chatroom to talk, I think there's a bigger incentive to not participate by day. But Amir0x is certainly not the only one guilty of this, so I don't think he's the only one who needs pointing at for that.


I'm surprised everyone thinks that the switcher was protecting Kalor, I think they were trying to protect Ward by switching him with someone who everyone thought was Mafia. That's why I'm having second thoughts on accusing Kalor and why I'm not going to vote for him this round.

Yeah, you're right - it really does come down to how you read "SWITCH: Kalor and Ward". Was the target Kalor or Ward? We may never know, but if it was meant to protect Ward, it clearly failed.

I had nothing to do with receiving the message, as I mentioned earlier if I had the power to investigate, I would've investigated Timeaisis last night. I have no idea why it was sent to me, it's also the only message I have received.

Yeah, I remember you saying that. It sounded like you were trying to deny being a Cop, not some other kind of investigative/spy role. Mind you, I'm not accusing you of anything, I just ask that if you're leaving any piece of this out, please don't.


I don't think the switcher and the owl are related. The pm I got made it seem like the owl was sent to me after the action occurred, by another person. Due to rules I am unable to post the message word for word, but if you have any questions, just ask and I'll do my best to answer them.[/QUOTE]

So maybe it's possible that someone ELSE is the investigator, who targets someone to survey, and then the owl goes to another player to give them the info?

If this investigator doesn't want to reveal themselves, maybe we should give them instructions on who to spy on, and who to send the message to (if possible)?
 

Rembrandt

Banned
Ami is still incredibly suspicious to me, but it's for the same reason as before, his lack of activity in here, but for now, Kalor is still my first guess.

Vote: Kalor
 

pants

Member
So it's between Amir0x and Kalor? If that's the case despite my earlier post accusing Amir0x of being suspicious (I still think he is, but not dangerous just yet) i'd lean towards Kalor this round out of the two of them. I cant really find anything consistently bad happening based on Amir0x's few day posts, but that could also be just what he wants to project =P
 
After going through this last page a couple of times, I think I'm going to sit this round out. The consensus is between Kalor, who I no longer suspect after the events of last night, and Amir0x, who I don't feel strongly about either way.

I don't feel great about accusing anyone else right now, since a lot of my theories are just grasping at straws. I really wish the cop would stop being a coward and tell us what they know.

I might be tempted to vote for Amir0x if it looks like that will save Kalor from being lynched, but for now...
VOTE: No Lynch
 
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