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Magic: the Gathering - Shadows over Innistrad |OT| Blue's Clues
- Thread starter SigmasonicX
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He's the got with the career record for Home Runs in AAA, but never got more than a September cup of coffee in the majors
Angry Grimace
Two cannibals are eating a clown. One turns to the other and says "does something taste funny to you?"
I mean the actual answer is lesser competition.
It feels poorly positioned. It's just a deck that naturally starts slow which doesn't work as often in Modern as you would hope.
shrapnelmagnet
Member
lol savage
It was definitely a thing today now that you mention it, but to be fair Cedric and Patrick also discuss Ross's demeanour and dress.
It's part of the package.
WanderingWind
Mecklemore Is My Favorite Wrapper
Are you not?
The coverage team this weekend is especially bad at this. They're pretty hard to watch at times.
ThLunarian
Member
I won an eBay auction for Magic cards and paid for it last night, and this morning I got an email from eBay saying that they removed the listing and didn't say why. It said that if I already paid then don't worry about it, and if the item never arrives I should contact the resolution center.
How worried should I be that I just lost $200? Am I already dead?
How worried should I be that I just lost $200? Am I already dead?
10 times out of 10, ebay sides with the buyer. At worst, your money is in escrow for a little while until things are resolved. At best, you'll get your order in a couple of days.
I wouldn't worry too much, ebay has really good buyer protection. Maybe try contacting the seller if their account is still active?
Finally get to pull my Voices out of the binder, this deck looks like a lot of fun and all the cards I don't have are like $1 each: http://sales.starcitygames.com//deckdatabase/displaydeck.php?DeckID=103769
How?
Angry Grimace
Two cannibals are eating a clown. One turns to the other and says "does something taste funny to you?"
Turn 1 Forest - Arbor Elf
Turn 2 Forest - Forest, Utopia Sprawl, Acid Moss.
Interesting. Seems cute but kind of useless if you don't T1/T2 that.
Familienoberhauptvogel
Banned
Didn't SaffronOlive do a video with that a couple months ago?
Found it
http://www.mtggoldfish.com/articles/budget-magic-99-69-tix-modern-dark-dwellers-stone-rain
It plays Blood Moon, Stone Rain and Beast Within as well. I mean, I have all the cards anyway. I should test it online, but fuck getting Blood Moons.
Edit: I got it from here: http://www.channelfireball.com/articles/modern-rg-land-destruction-deck-guide/
Efro went 11-4 with it at GP LA.
Edit: I got it from here: http://www.channelfireball.com/articles/modern-rg-land-destruction-deck-guide/
Efro went 11-4 with it at GP LA.
That deck is pretty obnoxious, a lot of people have been playing it on Cockatrice recently. I'd still rather play against it than GDD Boom/Bust though, man that thing is annoying.
ThLunarian
Member
Makes me sad that Dark Dwellers are still a 2-dollar card :/ I preordered two playsets at that price, thinking that surely they would go up if they were that good.
And the thing is, they actually do seem to be good! Why are they so cheap?
Edit: Argh. Same thing with Drownyard Temple staying at a dollar.
/sigh
Non-land Rares have to be ubiquitous in standard and heavily played in other formats to get above a few dollars after a month or two in print. Its a positive side effect of Mythics!
charlequin
Banned
The pros are having fun with this one on Twitter today: https://t.co/dzYA5F48sW
Question is, loot or don't loot? Curious to hear people's thoughts before checking on what the pros are saying.
Question is, loot or don't loot? Curious to hear people's thoughts before checking on what the pros are saying.
ThLunarian
Member
I would personally not loot. You can already deal with the Serra Angel, and after that you're both in topdeck mode, where Looter will probably win you the game. You don't want to risk looting into Control Magic there and losing one of the two best cards in your deck.
Familienoberhauptvogel
Banned
I wouldn't loot. Given answer is better than spinning the wheel, can still loot it away mainphase next turn if absolutely necessary.
Pros apparently think it's
Pros apparently think it's
loot
divisionbyzorro
Member
You don't loot.
- The only card left in your deck good enough to make you pitch the Lightning Blast is a Control Magic.
- If Control Magic is on the top of your deck, your hand is almost certainly better as Lightning Blast + Control Magic than Control Magic + (the best of the next two cards).
- Things are also horrible for you if your opponent has Disenchants in his deck, since you pitched the only remaining card that could kill the Angel.
- Ergo, you don't loot.
divisionbyzorro
Member
Another way to think about it:
Looting is only bad if the top card of your library is exactly Control Magic (let's call this Scenario A). So 1/26 times it's bad for you.
You can take two hits from that Serra Angel (assuming no other funny business). This means you'll get three draw steps + three mainphase loots to find the Control Magic. If Control Magic is exactly 7 cards down (let's call this Scenario B), you'll wish you had looted. So 1/26 times it's actively good for you to loot in this situation.
In other words, it's a coinflip. In my opinion, the downside of Scenario A is slightly higher than Scenario B, but it's probably so close as to not matter.
EDIT: Actually, I'm failing to consider the cases where looting now saves you 4 life because you found Control Magic one turn sooner. This might turn the tides slightly in the favor of looting now?
Looting is only bad if the top card of your library is exactly Control Magic (let's call this Scenario A). So 1/26 times it's bad for you.
You can take two hits from that Serra Angel (assuming no other funny business). This means you'll get three draw steps + three mainphase loots to find the Control Magic. If Control Magic is exactly 7 cards down (let's call this Scenario B), you'll wish you had looted. So 1/26 times it's actively good for you to loot in this situation.
In other words, it's a coinflip. In my opinion, the downside of Scenario A is slightly higher than Scenario B, but it's probably so close as to not matter.
EDIT: Actually, I'm failing to consider the cases where looting now saves you 4 life because you found Control Magic one turn sooner. This might turn the tides slightly in the favor of looting now?
Angry Grimace
Two cannibals are eating a clown. One turns to the other and says "does something taste funny to you?"
I disagree. Control Magic is better than Lightning Blast and you give yourself a greater chance to get Control Magic if you loot. There's never a scenario in which you are forced to discard your answer to Serra Angel, but you'd certainly much rather steal it than kill it, but your likelihood of actually seeing Control Magic is 1/26 without looting and every remaining threat in your deck is far worse than Serra Angel and your opponent is in topdeck mode without Serra Angel, so they're unlikely to be answering it.
Basically, the answer to me is that Control Magic is so far superior to Lightning Blast that there's no real benefit to being greedy and trying to get both of them. You want to get topdeck Control Magic ASAP, and Blast the Angel only if you loot twice and draw once and don't see it. If you Blast the Angel, you are not in some kind of commanding position: you and your opponent are just both in topdeck mode with nothing but Hill Giants and Phantom Warriors in your deck.
divisionbyzorro
Member
However, the other thing to consider is that Lightning Blast is miles better than the chaff left in your library. If Control Magic is on the top - sure, you're upgrading Lightning Blast. But the value of upgrading Lightning Blast to Control Magic is so much lower than the value of upgrading some other card to Control Magic, or a land into a spell.
"God's Beard!"
Member
This is the most boring part of competitive magic. Nothing really new going on, everybody just sitting around waiting for the new spoiler season. GW tokens is basically the same list from the PT and still winning, EMA sucks so draft isn't really interesting. PPTQ season is taking a break so there's no local stuff to go to.
I wish there were west coast SCG Opens again :-(
I wish there were west coast SCG Opens again :-(
Familienoberhauptvogel
Banned
You are right there's 19 cards in the deck that either don't draw into more cards or provide an answer and or a chump block to serra angel
With 7 draws tops and 26 cards in the deck total that, coincidentally, makes it exactly certain you're gonna draw into an answer.
The Technomancer
card-carrying scientician
My instinct would be to hold onto the Blast and take 4, than loot away whatever I got next turn and the turn after looking for the CM
Angry Grimace
Two cannibals are eating a clown. One turns to the other and says "does something taste funny to you?"
The thing is that successfully casting Control Magic on Serra Angel rapidly wins you the game, whereas Blasting the Angel doesn't do anything but send you both topdecking with a very slight advantage of having a Looter available. But all the remaining dudes are Hill Giants.
divisionbyzorro
Member
I wouldn't assume our opponent only plays one relevant threat in the deck. You can't just set your library on fire to find the Control Magic and expect that you're guaranteed to win that way. 
Angry Grimace
Two cannibals are eating a clown. One turns to the other and says "does something taste funny to you?"
I wouldn't assume our opponent only plays one relevant threat in the deck. You can't just set your library on fire to find the Control Magic and expect that you're guaranteed to win that way.
The problem is that LSV intentionally gave you almost no information about your opponent's deck. But you do know he has 0 cards in hand and anything good he gets would have to be a topdeck. There's also the fact that your chance to actually topdeck Control Magic (the only relevant card you could draw) is incredibly low and you have 2 more chances to draw, and looting the first time increases your chances to see Control Magic on your draw or the loot after untap.
The issue that is relevant to me is that Control Magic is worth so much more in this scenario than everything else in your deck including Lightning Blast.
divisionbyzorro
Member
I'm pretty sure he did that because this is more of a personality test than it is a question wit a correct answer. Either the top card is Control Magic and you're sad because you had to pitch the best remaining removal spell in your deck, or the Control Magic was exactly one card further than you were otherwise able to dig and you're sad because you had to kill the Angel instead of Control it, or it doesn't matter. It's almost certainly just a coinflip.
Angry Grimace
Two cannibals are eating a clown. One turns to the other and says "does something taste funny to you?"
My guess is you are not sad you got Control Magic on the loot. Control Magic is just so much better than Lightning Blast. That's the point: you are not actually sad if you topdeck that one card because it rapidly wins you the game even if you end up having to discard Lightning Blast.
I wouldn't assume our opponent only plays one relevant threat in the deck. You can't just set your library on fire to find the Control Magic and expect that you're guaranteed to win that way.
That's what i'm thinking too. We're all playing as if we're goldfishing, but each turn the opponent can put out a new threat too.
Angry Grimace
Two cannibals are eating a clown. One turns to the other and says "does something taste funny to you?"
There are 4 Shock in the deck.
divisionbyzorro
Member
There's literally nothing else left in your deck that can deal with the Serra Angel if the Control Magic gets Disenchanted, or Negated, or the opponent has some sort of protection spell, or an Unsummon, or any number of other things. If you believe the opponent literally can't draw anything, then you should be comfortable winning with Hill Giants in the scenario where you have to Blast the Angel.
EDIT: Okay, sure I guess you could cobble together a scenario where you two-for-one yourself to kill an X/4.
Angry Grimace
Two cannibals are eating a clown. One turns to the other and says "does something taste funny to you?"
You are playing way too conservatively if you are worried about Disenchant. He has 0 cards. If he topdecks something he topdecks something.
Exactly. I don't want either, I want both. Especially since without Blast I don't have an answer if Control Magic is Answered, and Blast also gives me a virtual Time Walk if I draw Control Magic.
divisionbyzorro
Member
Yeah, I feel like it's a mistake to tunnel vision on "Control Magic or bust!"
charlequin
Banned
So LSV and PVDDR both consider the answer to be loot by a big margin, so it's funny to me to see y'all going the other way. I am 99% confident that those guys are making the correct call on this. I was going to lay out my case for why you should loot, but:
Grimace covered it pretty much completely. "He might topdeck another threat" is actually a very bad reason to avoid this line of play; the upside of potentially winning much faster more than outweighs the hypothetical world where he has some insane secret topdeck to beat you. This is actually one of the things I've seen pros mention a lot in "how to get better" type articles: players by default play too conservatively with resources because they think about what they "might" be able to get from them in hypothetical future scenarios, while the right answer is usually to leverage them for advantage right away when you have the chance.
"God's Beard!"
Member
Yeah when I saw the LSV thing a few days ago I was surprised people didn't want to loot. Drawing Control magic and having to discard is such a small percentage and that's basically the only card you'd see where you're not totally happy you looted. And even then you'd rather have the control magic.
divisionbyzorro
Member
I had written something up here, and then I had a bit of a revelation. I have been completely ignoring the fact that my opponent is empty handed. Not that I was actively playing around something, but I wasn't considering the implication that I need to answer the Angel now while he can't do anything about it. So I don't actually have time to waste. If I don't draw Control Magic, I'm probably firing off Blast anyway. So either way, I'm not going to pass the turn with a removal resource in hand. I've been improperly biasing my opinion based on conserving a resource that I can't afford to conserve. Pitching Blast to the yard doesn't matter because it's going there anyway; not looting just increases the chance that Control Magic gets drawn later and played on something less good.
I capitulate. Loot.
I capitulate. Loot.
charlequin
Banned
Forget about the looter for a second. Think about it in terms of your next topdeck. What cards are left in the deck that make it appreciably more likely for you to win? It's really just Control Magic, which is essentially a 2-for-1 (eliminates opponent's threat, gives you one of your own) and puts your opponent on a minimum 3-turn clock unless they can directly answer it -- every other card is a worse clock or a blank, basically.
Similarly, if you topdeck the Control Magic in your draw phase next turn, do you cast it on the Serra Angel? Yes, immediately, even though that leaves you "open" to an x/5 threat the next turn, because that 2-for-1 and clock makes you likely enough to win that the hypothetical future threat isn't worth worrying too hard about.
Given both of those, it seems clear that looting is the right play. Looking at the current loot plus the start of next turn (draw step and additional loot) there are a few possible scenarios:
- You whiff three times. In this case the only effect your choice made was to get rid of one non-Control Magic card and therefore incrementally improve your chances to draw it on future turns (very slight positive) and there's no downside.
- You draw Control Magic off the loot. This is the case with a downside since you lose Lightning Blast, and you would've gotten it anyway next turn off the draw. You're still better off here than the situation where you don't have a CM, but worse off than if you hadn't looted.
- You loot, then you draw CM on your regular draw. This scenario means your choice was completely neutral -- you don't lose Lightning Blast, and you would've gotten Control Magic anyway (off your loot the following turn.)
- You draw Control Magic off of your second loot. This is the jackpot -- you get to keep Lightning Blast, you get your Control Magic, and you would've had to wait an extra turn if you hadn't looted the first time. This is just enormous, probably game-winning, value.
So essentially, out of the 26 possible positions Control Magic could be in your library, looting is a minimal upside in 23, completely neutral in one, has a downside in one (though one where your overall chance of winning still goes up), and has enormous upside in one. Given all that, I think mathematically you pretty much have to loot.
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