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Magic: the Gathering - Shadows over Innistrad |OT| Blue's Clues
- Thread starter SigmasonicX
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Angry Grimace
Two cannibals are eating a clown. One turns to the other and says "does something taste funny to you?"
There's 26 cards in the deck and you can see 3 of them in the next untap cycle. I don't know that I agree that's "fetch to thin" levels of insignificant because even discounting Control Magic you still have ~43% of your deck being lands, which you straight up don't want at all at this point.
The big issue is that I simply can't agree that there's any "worst case" scenario. The worst case is drawing Control Magic off of a looter. Except your hand is appreciably better than it was before anyways. The fact that you hypothetically could have drawn it alone and had both isn't material at the time you looted because you really want Control Magic. It's the fastest route to winning the game in a game where everything else in your deck sucks. If you simply were given the opportunity to trade Lightning Blast for Control Magic, I imagine you'd just take it every time.
charlequin
Banned
My actual case is just based on the second and fourth scenarios, I agree the deck thinning is irrelevant. The upside of scenario 4 (where instead of not getting the CM next turn, you get it and keep the LB) is much bigger than the downside of scenario 2 (you lose the LB, although you do still have a CM) and both are equivalently likely, while every other possibility looting is irrelevant both ways.
The Technomancer
card-carrying scientician
Wait, wait a second. I've been misunderstanding this whole conversation. For some reason I thought Merfolk Looter was discard than draw. Now I'm really confused, why on earth wouldn't you loot? If you draw the CM, discard the Blast. If you don't draw the CM, keep the blast and discard whatever else you drew.
divisionbyzorro
Member
Nominally I agree. But upon further consideration I think the crux of the argument is that Serra Angel is so good that it increases the value of Control Magic to a high enough level that you don't care. The fact that it's hard to kill means that it's probably just as hard for your opponent to kill it, so you are willing to risk losing the Blast.
If this was a Wind Drake instead and you were at 6 instead of 12, I think it's a very very different argument.
Yeah, when people say "not close" I assume they're just comparing the situations where it matters and throwing out the remaining (vast majority) of situations where it doesn't.
Serious question relating to that question- how many people here know the exact contents of their limited deck at all times? I can usually keep track of the number of lands in the deck, my bombs, and my top removal options, but everything else basically gets lost in the course of playing the game, because it's not a constructed deck I have spent hours practicing with, it's a deck I built an hour ago.
For me, I'm not looting in that situation because while I know I have a Control Magic in my deck, I'm not 100% sure of the rest of the contents of my deck, and I know that Lightning Blast is an answer to the threat on the board.
For me, I'm not looting in that situation because while I know I have a Control Magic in my deck, I'm not 100% sure of the rest of the contents of my deck, and I know that Lightning Blast is an answer to the threat on the board.
"God's Beard!"
Member
Digging to 1-ofs is something that actually happens pretty often in limited. If I can increase my chances of making a likely game-winning play from 7.7% to 11.5% I'm going to take it.
I think just as interesting is what to do if you discard a blank eot then find a sift off the top 2 cards. At that point I probably let the Angel hit me once and try to draw into control magic.
charlequin
Banned
Exact contents no, but I always try to at minimum pay attention to my two best bombs and two best removal so I know if I have major outs to any given scenario. In almost any limited format I'm gonna know if I have a Control Magic to dig for or not.
divisionbyzorro
Member
What's interesting about this exercise is how powerful the "always loot" heuristic really is. I always knew that it was usually better to loot than not to. What I realize now is that my sensor for when it's not correct to loot isn't good enough, and I should probably just loot anyway no matter what because I'm more likely to be wrong by not looting.
Familienoberhauptvogel
Banned
that's rummage. And yeah easy mistake to make but it's really unlikely you're throwing away something essential and are just digging towards CM so I was completely wrong.
The reluctancy of losing value got the better of me.
Angry Grimace
Two cannibals are eating a clown. One turns to the other and says "does something taste funny to you?"
Well, if the situation were reversed and you had Control Magic in your hand and the only relevant card left in your deck was Lightning Blast, you probably wouldn't loot because the upside is nothing more than thinning your deck.
charlequin
Banned
FWIW, here's LSV's answer column, in which he lays out a similar case to the pro-loot side in this thread.
http://www.channelfireball.com/articles/lsvs-play-the-looter-problem/
http://www.channelfireball.com/articles/lsvs-play-the-looter-problem/
divisionbyzorro
Member
I disliked his choice of words about how worrying about answers to Control Magic was "missing the point." I think what he was getting at was "those cards aren't part of the parameters of this problem," but people are taking it to mean "those cards don't matter." Hindsight and all, but if you said "this is game one" as part of the parameters of the problem, it would probably help. I think he intended for the obscuring of your opponent's deck to keep stray information from entering the scenario, but for a lot of folks the unknown space was just so large that it was a hindrance to understanding the point of the problem.
Also, for what it's worth, I think there's a class of card that could be considered "better than Lightning Storm" but also be "not worth losing Lightning Storm." Something like Annihilate comes to mind; it's clearly a better card, but I don't think you'd need to dig for it? Actually, maybe thats not a great example seeing as how going up an extra card makes the looter way better... I'm sure I could come up with an example if I tried hard enough.
Also, for what it's worth, I think there's a class of card that could be considered "better than Lightning Storm" but also be "not worth losing Lightning Storm." Something like Annihilate comes to mind; it's clearly a better card, but I don't think you'd need to dig for it? Actually, maybe thats not a great example seeing as how going up an extra card makes the looter way better... I'm sure I could come up with an example if I tried hard enough.
divisionbyzorro
Member
I think it goes like this:
Level 0 Answer: "The card in my hand is good. I don't want to lose it. I won't loot."
Level 1 Answer: "The card in my deck is better. Looting can only upgrade my hand. I will loot."
Level 2 Answer: "The card in my deck isn't strictly better, and if it's on top of my deck and my opponent has an answer to it, I get blown out. The card in my hand also cleanly answers the problem on board. The upside doesn't justify the downside. I won't loot."
Level 3 Answer: "The card in my deck isn't strictly better, but it's better in a significant majority of cases. When it's better, it's also significantly better and cuts down on my opponent's draw steps to find an answer. I don't have any clear information that would lead me to believe that my opponent's deck has a high percentage of outs. The upside justifies the downside. I will loot."
Level 0 Answer: "The card in my hand is good. I don't want to lose it. I won't loot."
Level 1 Answer: "The card in my deck is better. Looting can only upgrade my hand. I will loot."
Level 2 Answer: "The card in my deck isn't strictly better, and if it's on top of my deck and my opponent has an answer to it, I get blown out. The card in my hand also cleanly answers the problem on board. The upside doesn't justify the downside. I won't loot."
Level 3 Answer: "The card in my deck isn't strictly better, but it's better in a significant majority of cases. When it's better, it's also significantly better and cuts down on my opponent's draw steps to find an answer. I don't have any clear information that would lead me to believe that my opponent's deck has a high percentage of outs. The upside justifies the downside. I will loot."
keeblerdrow
Member
Level 4 Answer: "You've already had 4 warnings for slow play today, including one game loss. It's time to make a decision, loot or pass priority."
charlequin
Banned
After I spent ten minutes writing out that post with the decision logic earlier I was thinking about how the difference between a scrub like me and a good player (much less a HOFer) is that it takes me ten minutes of concentration to get to the conclusion that LSV or PVDDR draws instinctively in seconds.
SigmasonicX
Member
Interviews about The Magic Dojo, the first Magic fansite. Lots of interesting early Internet stuff here.
EDIT: It was interesting reading about how the .com Bubble affected the Dojo.
EDIT: It was interesting reading about how the .com Bubble affected the Dojo.
A Serious Man
Member
I remember the Dojo although it sort of fell off a year before I started playing. My real bread and butter was The Sideboard magazine, I absorbed every word of every edition I could get my hands on.
Not much going on right now. We are a couple of weeks away from EDM spoilers. I think they start the 20th.
A Serious Man
Member
The 20th.
In other news, my Penguins are about to win the Cup and it looks like I may finally get out of my nightmare of a job. I have a second interview for a position that will not only allow me attend FNM's again but start going to GP's and weekend events regularly. It's something I've wanted to do for awhile but having to work 25+ hours every weekend made it a tad unrealistic.
Angry Grimace
Two cannibals are eating a clown. One turns to the other and says "does something taste funny to you?"
Eternal Masters was a bust and nothing comes out for a while, so yeah, nothing to talk about.
I'm skipping this weekend's release events because the format doesn't look fun, its that simple.
I'm skipping this weekend's release events because the format doesn't look fun, its that simple.
Hence my lamenting the lack of leaks
They used to fill these silences.You think the format sucking will have an effect on what EM does to prices, either way?
I usually hate the Penguins, and I'm not too happy about the prospect of them winning another Cup. But I'll be damned if this team this year didn't really earn it. Congrats man, maybe someday my Sabres can pull it off. Also congrats on (probably) getting out of a bad job! There's nothing worse.
Remember when Masticore was ranked the best creature of all time? Those were the days.
Angry Grimace
Two cannibals are eating a clown. One turns to the other and says "does something taste funny to you?"
Hence my lamenting the lack of leaks
You think the format sucking will have an effect on what EM does to prices, either way?
I usually hate the Penguins, and I'm not too happy about the prospect of them winning another Cup. But I'll be damned if this team this year didn't really earn it. Congrats man, maybe someday my Sabres can pull it off. Also congrats on (probably) getting out of a bad job! There's nothing worse.
No, I just mean its such a limited, unexciting product that people will get their box, open it and that's it. There's no reason to discuss the format like it matters in any way. MM2015 had a triple GP that was highly attended with video coverage and was a very good draft format (even if it was worse than MM1).
That's what we *should* be talking about, we just aren't because the product is meh, the limited format looks meh, and it caters to a dead format. Its basically Commander fodder.
Not to mention Standard is just solved. GW Tokens is the best deck. Running 4 Languishes isn't even good enough because Gideon is overpowered.
Familienoberhauptvogel
Banned
context?
I'm already doubting going to the draft since for the same I could buy like 3 or 4 of the 12 or so singles I want for COMMANDER YEAHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH
Familienoberhauptvogel
Banned
I assumed but they aren't gonna depreciate much would be my guess.
Dude! I thought they had release spoilers on the new set. Got my hopes up lol
Can't wait to open up my boxes when I get home tonight if USPS/Amazon is accurate with their delivery time.
Nah Commander is way out. WAAAAAAAAY OUT
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IlxfUahVw0s
Weekly Top 5 r/custommagic submissions
Some wacky cards in there.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IlxfUahVw0s
Weekly Top 5 r/custommagic submissions
Some wacky cards in there.
A Serious Man
Member
Matt Sperling explains the Looter dilemma.
Sabres should be pretty good sooner rather than later, although I don't know if Bylsma is the man to lead them to the Cup. Maybe he's learned some things since he got booted out of Pittsburgh.
Sabres should be pretty good sooner rather than later, although I don't know if Bylsma is the man to lead them to the Cup. Maybe he's learned some things since he got booted out of Pittsburgh.
I really hope you're right. Watching you guys (hell, any consistent team) be good every year is maddening when we've been going the opposite direction. I think Dan B is our stepping-stone coach. He'll get them the basic fundamentals and maybe get them sniffing playoffs, if not to a low seed, then a higher profile coach will come in and push them the rest of the way. He juggles the lines between games like Brian Kibler with a full grip in the feature match area. I don't know if he did that to the Pens, but he's far from a fan favorite so far.
divisionbyzorro
Member
The first video just muddles the point. I think he kind of gets there, but there are only two cases that matter for this one decision: the one where the Control Magic is on top of the deck now, and the one where the game ends with Control Magic on top of your deck. Each of those cases is equally likely. So it's misleading to talk about "all these other cases where Control Magic is not on top" when discussing the likelihood of finding it.
What turns it from a near coin flip into an "absolutely should loot" is the powerful clock that Control Magic can become when used straight away. You shouldn't just look at whether or not you get Control Magic eventually, but should place significant value on getting it earlier. If the card is third from the top, you still get it next turn if you loot now and that's super valuable. If you don't, you won't see it until after taking another hit and letting your opponent draw a card.
BBD with my favorite take: I'm not looting, I'm not talking about it, and fuck all you judgemental assholes
https://twitter.com/braunduinit/status/739977806499586049
https://twitter.com/braunduinit/status/739977806499586049
charlequin
Banned
Yeah, I think the "one preview common" promotion they did for years (Onslaught until... Kamigawa? Ravnica?) was great, I don't know why they stopped that.
Banned
lol buffalo teams being good at sports
SigmasonicX
Member
Well, to give you guys something else to talk about, the planned header image for the Eldritch Moon OT will by default be this:
With the logo and details included, of course. However, I'm also planning on including a bunch of notable moons, since there's a ton of open space. What I have so far:
1. Majora's Mask moon
2. Super Galaxy Dai-Gurren (Gurren Lagann)
3. Space Colony ARK (Sonic Adventure 2)
4. Soul Eater's moon
5. My Little Pony's moon (from first episode)
6. A Trip to the Moon's moon
7. Hatched moon from Doctor Who's "Kill the Moon"
8. Moon with "CHA" etched into it from The Tick
9. Sailor Moon
10. Infinite Tsukuyomi from Naruto
11. Actual notable moons like Titan and Europa.
Any others you guys want?
With the logo and details included, of course. However, I'm also planning on including a bunch of notable moons, since there's a ton of open space. What I have so far:
1. Majora's Mask moon
2. Super Galaxy Dai-Gurren (Gurren Lagann)
3. Space Colony ARK (Sonic Adventure 2)
4. Soul Eater's moon
5. My Little Pony's moon (from first episode)
6. A Trip to the Moon's moon
7. Hatched moon from Doctor Who's "Kill the Moon"
8. Moon with "CHA" etched into it from The Tick
9. Sailor Moon
10. Infinite Tsukuyomi from Naruto
11. Actual notable moons like Titan and Europa.
Any others you guys want?
It's really silly that they stopped. They should start it back up.
What's "lol" to you is life to me. Thanks... lol
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