I don't think this is correct at all.
People may not like it, but people will pay/play it anyway. People on a budget don't play MTG in the first place. The problem is that the user experience is so fucking miserable right now.
I guess we're just making fundamentally different assumptions about what people want.
I think that you're leaving piles of cash on the table by pinning the business model of the digital game to the physical game. You should be trying to get as many people in the door as possible.
By the way - the term "whales" really frustrates me when it comes to MTGO. The people at the top of the pyramid are "sharks," who are taking money away from the "fish." MTGO's "whales" are actually "fish" swimming in the wrong ecosystem - they're people who are paying to play a game that they aren't good at, but they keep playing. The people who are actually good are paying pennies compared to the people who are bad. Let's not kid ourselves - MTGO is just fancy online poker, and I don't believe that Magic should be chasing poker money. We've seen enough success from other games in this space to believe that they should be chasing Hearthstone/League/Counterstrike money.
I think WotC is taking the safe and lazy route. I think they're missing out on a significant profit stream by doing so.
Except that Hearthstone's numbers prove that more people will play a game with a friendlier business model. There's no way for MTGO to retake ground from Hearthstone if gamers are expected to pay $15 each time they want to draft. Lord knows its why I play Hearthstone, despite being a longtime paper MTG player.
It was somewhere in the middle of Khans draft when I realized that I actually hated the experience of drafting online. This of course sucked, because I loved drafting. I had to sit back and list off the reasons why I liked paper draft and I hated digital draft. It basically came down to this:
1) The social experience on MTGO is shit. I'm locking myself behind a screen for three hours at a time to draft - it's a completely antisocial experience. It's not like I'm a streamer who gets to share his experience with an audience. I'm either locked in my office, giving up spending time with my wife or kid (or sleep I suppose), or I'm playing on my tablet sitting next to my wife while watching some show on TV.
2) The price is ridiculous. I have to pay $10-$14 (depending upon the price of packs) for the privilege of a sub-part draft experience. And if I'm of average skill level, I can expect to cut that price down by a little bit, but not much.
3) The time commitment is crazy, but that's really just an extension of (1). I don't mind drafting for three hours when it's me and friends cracking beers at home, or me and friends hanging out at a store.
What it really comes down to is the opportunity cost. The opportunity cost of a draft at FNM is doing something
else with friends, like going to see a movie. Drafting is comparable, and (IMO) even superior. The opportunity cost of a draft at home is playing another video game or spending time with family. The experience is quite similar, so the apparent cost of the entry fee skyrockets.
The reason I focus on draft, by the way, is because I'm assuming people aren't buying "cases" of packs and busting them online. My assumption is that the vast majority of Constructed players are buying their cards from bots, and the vast majority of those cards originated by Limited players opening them in drafts and sealed events.
Whether more people play isn't actually material, its about money. MTGO players spend a LOT for almost no cost on WOTC's end.
I guarantee you it would be trivial to get people ("whales" I suppose) to spend money on dumb shit on a better MTGO digital platform. Upgrade your cards to foil. Upgrade your cards to animate. Buy sleeves for your decks. Buy sweet premium tokens. Buy playmats. Buy avatars. If you upgrade your Lightning Bolt to this limited edition version, your opponent's card will explode when it resolves! Sick, give me one of those!
And I'm not suggesting that you give away all the cards for free - I'm just suggesting that it's ridiculous for a pack of digital cards to cost the same as a pack of physical cards. Hell, Hearthstone doesn't just give away their cards. You either work your ass off for them, or you pay for packs. Even the Arena costs money.
It goes back to the apparent cost. When I'm choosing between playing something on Steam or booting up MTGO to draft, I shouldn't have a $14 hurdle standing between me and one of those options.