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[Selner]

It's not inconceivable. The turn was pre-programmed into the flight computer.

I think the potential theory is that they had a minor incident, then they programmed the turn towards closest airport to try and land/survive, then another incident or worsening of the first and they became incapacitated and the plane became unmanned at that point and flew til out of gas on the new course. And various systems were also disabled by the same incident at various points in time.

The problem with that theory is that if the incident was enough to incapacitate the crew (and probably the passengers), then how did the plane keep flying for 7+ hours?

Has there ever been a case of a "ghost" plane flying for that long?

So while they have determined that the plane went down in the Indian Ocean west of Perth, AUS, how exactly it got there is still very much a topic of debate.

And since it looks like everything was shutoff prior to the turn, does that mean there won't even be any data after the turn on the FDR and CVR?

 

[TOP SHOTTA]

Water that deep is going to shave a kilometre or two off of the detection radius too

No, that's accounting for the depth too.

 

[Ephemeris]

At least they'll have some closure

 

[Phoenix]

Text is quickest way to let the families know before the media get hold of it. I think that was the intention, let them know soon as possible and before hearing it casually on the news.

Definitely. You certainly don't want news to break before the families hear about it.

 

[Smellycat]

It was always going to end up like this, but it is sad to see it happen. RIP

 

[BFIB]

I was hoping for the families sake, something substantial was found.

But now CNN can continue with their conspiracy theories since there's no proof of what actually happened. Continue to run the names of the pilots through the mud CNN!

 

[Phoenix]

The problem with that theory is that if the incident was enough to incapacitate the crew (and probably the passengers), then how did the plane keep flying for 7+ hours?

Has there ever been a case of a "ghost" plane flying for that long?

So while they have determined that the plane went down in the Indian Ocean west of Perth, AUS, how exactly it got there is still very much a topic of debate.

And since it looks like everything was shutoff prior to the turn, does that mean there won't even be any data after the turn on the FDR and CVR?

A modern aircraft doesn't need much from the crew after its in the air. The autopilot is pretty much flying the aircraft 100%. It can fly until it runs out of fuel.

 

[jufonuk]

The problem with that theory is that if the incident was enough to incapacitate the crew (and probably the passengers), then how did the plane keep flying for 7+ hours?

Has there ever been a case of a "ghost" plane flying for that long?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Helios_Airways_Flight_522

 

[JonnyBrad]

The problem with that theory is that if the incident was enough to incapacitate the crew (and probably the passengers), then how did the plane keep flying for 7+ hours?

Has there ever been a case of a "ghost" plane flying for that long?

So while they have determined that the plane went down in the Indian Ocean west of Perth, AUS, how exactly it got there is still very much a topic of debate.

And since it looks like everything was shutoff prior to the turn, does that mean there won't even be any data after the turn on the FDR and CVR?

The flight that Payne Stewart (the golfer) died decompressed and flew for hours before running out of fuel and crashing. They even had jets scrambled who observed the cockpit windows iced over. In that case their transponder didn't go off though.

Hypoxia hits very quick when it happens.

Or the greek airliner where everyone was out apart from one crew member. Edit that's the helios one above.

 

[Ty4on]

I'd hate to think their were survivors, but eventually died after 2 weeks at sea..

All the evidence seems to point towards the plane flying on autopilot straight south until it ran out of fuel and a crash like that is never survivable. If they were unconscious due to depressurization then I think that is the best way of passing out. Your brain activity just slows down until you pass out.

The flight that Payne Stewart (the golfer) died decompressed and flew for hours before running out of fuel and crashing. They even had jets scrambled who observed the cockpit windows iced over. In that case their transponder didn't go off though.

Hypoxia hits very quick when it happens.

Or the greek airliner where everyone was out apart from one crew member. Edit that's the helios one above.

The Stewart flight was on a plane without an alarm for depressurization and the Helios plane was never pressurized in the first place. I think a sudden depressurization would be noticed very quickly.

 

[| Praxis |]

Hasn't Inmarsat been trying to tell the Malaysian authorities that this is where the plane came down since the third day after the plane was lost? They even made it public a few days ago because they were frustrated and felt like they were being ignored.

I know with hindsight, it's easy to point the finger, but this is pretty shoddy.

 

[sphinx]

sad to hear, but at least there is closure to this.

now I hope a mod learns about this and updates the topic line.

 

[Megasoum]

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Helios_Airways_Flight_522

It's incredible the amount of errors the pilots made on that flight.

 

[JonnyBrad]

Hasn't Inmarsat been trying to tell the Malaysian authorities that this is where the plane came down since the third day after the plane was lost? They even made it public a few days ago because they were frustrated and felt like they were being ignored.

I know with hindsight, it's easy to point the finger, but this is pretty shoddy.

This was just said on the BBC news. They were hitting a brick wall with the official enquiry so went to the British Gov who then passed it on to the Aussies and US.

Pathetic really.

 

[JonnyBrad]

It's incredible the amount of errors the pilots made on that flight.

The captain was an idiot. He was even told how to fix it by the ground engineer (who they then tried to prosecute) but ignored it and they all died.

 

[Fjolle]

All the evidence seems to point towards the plane flying on autopilot straight south until it ran out of fuel and a crash like that is never survivable. If they were unconscious due to depressurization then I think that is the best way of passing out. Your brain activity just slows down until you pass out.

But it didn't really fly straight. It flew across Malaysia, around Indonesia and then south.

 

[Goodlife]

No new info transmitted from the plane doesn't mean no new info regarding the crash. I don't understand why the statement is annoying.

The situation is annoying.
If there had been a coordinated effort, this info could have been given the day after, not 2 weeks after

 

[schroddycat]

Hasn't Inmarsat been trying to tell the Malaysian authorities that this is where the plane came down since the third day after the plane was lost? They even made it public a few days ago because they were frustrated and felt like they were being ignored.

I know with hindsight, it's easy to point the finger, but this is pretty shoddy.

Never heard of this. Do you have the source of Inmarsat's statement on that?

 

[KHarvey16]

The situation is annoying.
If there had been a coordinated effort, this info could have been given the day after, not 2 weeks after

It doesn't sound that way at all. It appears Inmarsat has been performing an analysis on the data they had and have now got it to the point they're confident it took the southern corridor.

 

[Fjolle]

Never heard of this. Do you have the source of Inmarsat's statement on that?

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs...alaysia-airlines-plane-have-gone-much-faster/

 

[Ty4on]

But it didn't really fly straight. It flew across Malaysia, around Indonesia and then south.

I know. I posted this as a reply to someone saying the pilot tried to find an airstrip after something happened with the plane:

He then flew straight south on a path with nothing but water in sight and the plane flew well enough to stay in the air till the fuel ran out. I don't buy it.
Terrorism seems like an odd reason when no one has taken responsibility. Maybe terrorism gone wrong? Really hope the FDR and CVR can be found. Even if they were shut down manually that is still evidence in itself.

I think the important bit is before the plane flew south. What happened on board that caused it to blindly fly one of the few paths where it couldn't reach land?

Edit: I've also posted this picture which shows us what we now know:

It already makes a bunch of theories unlikely.

 

[Selner]

The flight that Payne Stewart (the golfer) died decompressed and flew for hours before running out of fuel and crashing. They even had jets scrambled who observed the cockpit windows iced over. In that case their transponder didn't go off though.

Hypoxia hits very quick when it happens.

Or the greek airliner where everyone was out apart from one crew member. Edit that's the helios one above.

Yikes. I had not read about the details of that.

And the wiki article on it lists several other, similar crashes.
The Helios one already linked as well as:
1980 Bo Rein crash
1988 Mexico Learjet 24 crash
2000 Australia Beechcraft King Air crash

All five crashes appear to be caused by hypoxia due to depressurization.

Ugh. Enough to make a person never want to fly again.

 

[Boy Wander]

Where is the proof? Did they find actual debris? Or are they speculating based on data that there was nowhere else it could have landed?

No debris found as yet. Inmarsat / British Air Accident Investigators / UK Secret Services have collaborated to provide new analysis of satellite data and have proved beyond reasonable doubt that the flight ended in the southern indian ocean. Analysis performed is apparently never used before in this field. No details as to exactly what that entailed.

 

[duckroll]

Updated the title and the OP.

 

[| Praxis |]

Never heard of this. Do you have the source of Inmarsat's statement on that?

Probably not the best source, but at work so don't have time to search, I heard about it on BBC news about a week ago.

http://m.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=11224111

 

[Ty4on]

Yikes. I had not read about the details of that.

And the wiki article on it lists several other, similar crashes.
The Helios one already linked as well as:
1980 Bo Rein crash
1988 Mexico Learjet 24 crash
2000 Australia Beechcraft King Air crash

All five crashes appear to be caused by hypoxia due to depressurization.

Ugh. Enough to make a person never want to fly again.

Apart from the Helios crash none of them were commercial flights.

 

[Shuggah_Daddy]

Heartbreaking. We pretty much all knew it was going to come to this, but it's still terrible. I feel terrible for the families affected.

 

[Lucifon]

No debris found as yet. Inmarsat / British Air Accident Investigators / UK Secret Services have collaborated to provide new analysis of satellite data and have proved beyond reasonable doubt that the flight ended in the southern indian ocean. Analysis performed is apparently never used before in this field. No details as to exactly what that entailed.

Surely they wouldn't realise the statement of the flight's demise without having found concrete evidence rather than data analysis? Just seems to me with the timing of ships moving to debris locations that they've picked someone up which proved what was suspected. Turning the operation into a salvage one rather than a rescue one. But until more of the plane is uncovered, they have no more information to tell us, hence the announcement and nothing more.

 

[jmdajr]

Obviously the odds of everyone having magically survived were slim, but still it's a tough deal. Still so much to learn of why it happened.

 

[GameAddict411]

really sad news, part of me really wanted the passengers to survive even though it was highly unlikely. they better find the black boxes though because there is sufficient evidence to show this was not a simple accident.

 

[syllogism]

Surely they wouldn't realise the statement of the flight's demise without having found concrete evidence rather than data analysis? Just seems to me with the timing of ships moving to debris locations that they've picked someone up which proved what was suspected. Turning the operation into a salvage one rather than a rescue one. But until more of the plane is uncovered, they have no more information to tell us, hence the announcement and nothing more.

Data analysis can be concrete evidence. If a passenger had somehow made a satellite phone call and that call had been traced to the middle of Indian ocean, few would be doubting the evidence.

 

[jufonuk]

Data analysis can be concrete evidence. If a passenger had somehow made a satellite phone call and that call had been traced to the middle of Indian ocean, few would be doubting the evidence.

so any idea about the phones being called?

 

[Betta Lines]

so any idea about the phones being called?

If you're referring to the ringing phones, this has been explained as meaningless many times.

 

[Represent.]

Rest in Peace to all those on board, disastrous.

 

[Chezzymann]

I don't get how this is big news. They still haven't found anything from the plane so all this "news" is saying is that they think it crashed in the southern indian ocean according to data analysis. They still dont really know anything about what happened to the plane. Its not the end of the story, its just that they cant finish the story. I guess they're trying to find a way to put some sort of finite spin on this (even though its actually business as usual) since the search is winding down.

 

[Ravensmash]

Very sad, but I guess it's better to finally have some sort of closure for the family and friends of the passengers.

Hopefully we'll begin to find out more about what actually happened.

 

[Betta Lines]

I don't get how this is big news. They still haven't found anything from the plane so all this "news" is saying is that they think it crashed in the southern indian ocean according to data analysis. They still dont really know anything about what happened to the plane. Its not the end of the story, its just that they cant finish the story. I guess they're trying to find a way to put some sort of finite spin on this (even though its actually business as usual) since the search is winding down.

Spin? What on earth are you talking about?

 

[KHarvey16]

I don't get how this is big news. They still haven't found anything from the plane so all this "news" is saying is that they think it crashed in the southern indian ocean according to data analysis. They still dont really know anything about what happened to the plane. Its not the end of the story, its just that they cant finish the story. I guess they're trying to find a way to put some sort of finite spin on this (even though its actually business as usual) since the search is winding down.

What are you talking about?

 

[jufonuk]

If you're referring to the ringing phones, this has been explained as meaningless many times.

ahh sorry i missed that.

 

[syllogism]

I don't get how this is big news. They still haven't found anything from the plane so all this "news" is saying is that they think it crashed in the southern indian ocean according to data analysis. They still dont really know anything. Its not the end of the story, its just that they cant finish the story. I guess they're trying to find a way to put some sort of finite spin on this (even though its actually business as usual) since the search is winding down.

The data analysis can be nearly as strong evidence as a piece of debris, it is obviously big news. You have just decided that it is not.

 

[Chezzymann]

Spin? What on earth are you talking about?

Making it sound like this development is some sort of closure to this whole debacle.

 

[jl4855]

Spin? What on earth are you talking about?

i think he means they're trying to communicate closure (for the families) when there really are many questions left unanswered.

 

[Selner]

I don't get how this is big news. They still haven't found anything from the plane so all this "news" is saying is that they think it crashed in the southern indian ocean according to data analysis. They still dont really know anything about what happened to the plane. Its not the end of the story, its just that they cant finish the story. I guess they're trying to find a way to put some sort of finite spin on this (even though its actually business as usual) since the search is winding down.

It's not so much a "think" now, but a "know".

And based on that knowledge, they are comfortable telling the families that their relatives did not survive.

I am a little curious about the analysis "never before used in this field" stuff though. I imagine it's some sort of military/intelligence type stuff.

 

[MMBosstones86]

Making it sound like this development is some sort of closure to this whole debacle.

knowing* the plane crashed into the ocean isn't closure?

* with extreme confidence

 

[Boy Wander]

Surely they wouldn't realise the statement of the flight's demise without having found concrete evidence rather than data analysis? Just seems to me with the timing of ships moving to debris locations that they've picked someone up which proved what was suspected. Turning the operation into a salvage one rather than a rescue one. But until more of the plane is uncovered, they have no more information to tell us, hence the announcement and nothing more.

Sure they can. They know how much fuel the plane would have had on board at a specific point in time and they have (presumably based on hourly pings) triangulated it's last known position. With that information, they can say for sure that, given it's last known position and the amount of fuel on board, there is no way that the aircraft could have reached land. It therefore must've crashed into the sea.

 

[TOP SHOTTA]

I don't get how this is big news. They still haven't found anything from the plane so all this "news" is saying is that they think it crashed in the southern indian ocean according to data analysis. They still dont really know anything about what happened to the plane. Its not the end of the story, its just that they cant finish the story. I guess they're trying to find a way to put some sort of finite spin on this (even though its actually business as usual) since the search is winding down.

It is big news because it is conclusive. Not that it concludes the story but it really, really cuts down the plane's whereabouts. Not like, in half, but this isolates it way, way down to a relatively small spot - one which they can focus their resources on. I am sure there is more to this which will develop in the next 24-48 hours. How closely have you been following this story? Seems you might be ignorant to the quality & validity of the information that has been released so far.

 

[DevelopmentArrested]

Making it sound like this development is some sort of closure to this whole debacle.

So the government shouldn't say anything until they find the black box? You're clueless.

 

[Frank Jaeger]

If you're referring to the ringing phones, this has been explained as meaningless many times.

Missed this, care to elaborate?

 

[KHarvey16]

Making it sound like this development is some sort of closure to this whole debacle.

No one is stopping the search nor has anyone suggested this was the end of the story. They let the families and the world know that they're confident the plane crashed in the ocean and everyone had perished. You have inserted a lot into what's being said to reach that conclusion.

 

[toxicgonzo]

Inmarsat exec. on CNN says they did mathematical analysis using Doppler shift to confirm.