Support NeoGAF

[Loomy]

If I was Sony i'd refund or offer people some Marathon Bucks etc and make the game F2P, that might give it a sliver of hope that they can recover costs on the microtransactions.

So instead of making some money, they'd make no money?

Realistically, there is no hope to recover costs, but Playstation is aware of that. It's a strange situation.

Realistically, we have no idea what the budget was, how many copies(regular/deluxe) they sold/will sell, or what the appetite for paid cosmetics are going to be. No one here has any idea what the economics of this game is.

Sony figured they had no chances to recover Concord costs, so they shut it down. If they believed it here, I'm guessing they'd have done the same before spending all that money on the delay.

 

[Pasta la Vista]

If I was Sony i'd refund or offer people some Marathon Bucks etc and make the game F2P, that might give it a sliver of hope that they can recover costs on the microtransactions.

I love this, keep it up man lol

 

[clarky]

If I was Sony i'd refund or offer people some Marathon Bucks etc and make the game F2P, that might give it a sliver of hope that they can recover costs on the microtransactions.

This is why you post on videogame forums and don't run a videogame publisher.

 

[Hollywood Hitman]

I just don't get how let's say 500,000 people are interested in this game, and there's a free to play few days for one of the most polarizing modern games with one of the biggest studios in gaming history, how only 134k show up to play it?

I don't see how there's this group of people, 350k that is saying "no need to try it just take my 40 bucks".

I buy blind all the time which is fine but if and when there's demos, or betas or trials etc.. If in interested I will absolutely always try it.

It's not like they HAD to max a character out just to get wiped, they could've put 2 hours or so in and be done.

As I said before I thought 300k easy to "try it". I don't think 143k upon opening, down to 120k by days end, to then hover around 40-80k to finish the slam up as a free to play product.

Theres no wag at 40 bucks based off that it comes anywhere near it, I just don't see it

 

[//DEVIL//]

I just don't get how let's say 500,000 people are interested in this game, and there's a free to play few days for one of the most polarizing modern games with one of the biggest studios in gaming history, how only 134k show up to play it?

I don't see how there's this group of people, 350k that is saying "no need to try it just take my 40 bucks".

I buy blind all the time which is fine but if and when there's demos, or betas or trials etc.. If in interested I will absolutely always try it.

It's not like they HAD to max a character out just to get wiped, they could've put 2 hours or so in and be done.

As I said before I thought 300k easy to "try it". I don't think 143k upon opening, down to 120k by days end, to then hover around 40-80k to finish the slam up as a free to play product.

Theres no wag at 40 bucks based off that it comes anywhere near it, I just don't see it

who said there are 500k people interested in this?

if it reach 100k on steam I honestly would be super surpised.

Only praying it has legs on the PlayStation ecosystem. for the sake of Bungie to continue its existance

 

[MrAlwaysRight]

So instead of making some money, they'd make no money?


Realistically, we have no idea what the budget was, how many copies(regular/deluxe) they sold/will sell, or what the appetite for paid cosmetics are going to be. No one here has any idea what the economics of this game is.

Sony figured they had no chances to recover Concord costs, so they shut it down. If they believed it here, I'm guessing they'd have done the same before spending all that money on the delay.

It cost $250million + the $3.6billion they dropped on Bungie.

 

[MrAlwaysRight]

So instead of making some money, they'd make no money?

They could make money on microtransactions, certainly more than they will by selling the game for $40 a pop, f2p players might even justify keeping it alive for a little while and give time to course correct, as it stands I see them shutting it down within a month.

 

[ReBurn]

who said there are 500k people interested in this?

if it reach 100k on steam I honestly would be super surpised.

Only praying it has legs on the PlayStation ecosystem. for the sake of Bungie to continue its existance

Bungie would make a better legend

 

[MayauMiao]

You are right. I even wonder if we need another brand new thread about it.

It would be a good reference if alpha/beta/test based CCU will tally with the final product CCU so maybe separate it would be best.

 

[ChorizoPicozo]

If I was Sony i'd refund or offer people some Marathon Bucks etc and make the game F2P, that might give it a sliver of hope that they can recover costs on the microtransactions.

They could make money on microtransactions, certainly more than they will by selling the game for $40 a pop, f2p players might even justify keeping it alive for a little while and give time to course correct, as it stands I see them shutting it down within a month.

The conversion rate is 1%-5% of people spending in MTXs. even if only 500K pay for the game, that would be much better than the 1%-5% of that number.

 

[Pasta la Vista]

The game is going to have a similar curve to Arc Raiders. I think it will actually grow week over week for the first month or so before settling in to retention numbers. With how short the seasons are too I think FOMO will play a big part with that ranked mode.

 

[8BiTw0LF]

People rely more on CCU than sales. It literally just hit 2nd place on Steam sales globally an hour ago.

The doomers in these threads are delusional

 

[Men_in_Boxes]

The doomers in these threads are delusional

I've challenged ChorizoPicozo to make an avatar bet with me twice. He declined both times, which is fair enough but it's telling.

There are two kinds of people in the world. Those who want to see the world for what it is and those who want to pretend the world is what they've created in their minds.

Barometers are not for the 2nd group. The boomers aren't interested in reality. They're interested in the emotional atmosphere the narrative creates.

 

[neo raider]

next month gonna be like

(i hate html)

 

[8BiTw0LF]

I've challenged ChorizoPicozo

I've blocked that dude a couple days ago. People who love to trash games instead of playing them are not my cup of tea

 

[Light_Crusader25]

Who cares if a bunch of Halo or Destiny devs are still there? The talent still is. From a technical perspective, Marathon is near flawless. Elite gun play, animations, cinematics, visual world building and CGI cutscenes. People who don't even like the game acknowledge that

Zero chance Bungie gets shut down. Theoretically, if Marathon bombed like Concord, Bungie would go through layoffs, but Destiny is still a billion dollar IP. They would just start work on that immediately

Agreed, but the bleeding would be spectacular, unfortunately (hundreds of employees, me thinks). In an ideal world, Sony should mandate a SP/MP game to rebuild the developer's credentials, but they might say "fuck it" and get them to work on Destiny 3 instead.

 

[Lokaum D+]

Man HECK NAH!!!!!!!!!!!!! It's gotta be a bare minimum 50,000 CCU on launch day. Literally a bare naked minimum of 50K. But should easily do over 100K, if it's going to be successful....

Didnt Highguard pushed 100k on launch day ?

 

[FMN]

People rely more on CCU than sales. It literally just hit 2nd place on Steam sales globally an hour ago.

The doomers in these threads are delusional

Wasn't Avowed the "top seller" on Steam when it released?

 

[8BiTw0LF]

Wasn't Avowed the "top seller" on Steam when it released?

Maybe for a day. Marathon been in top 5 for a week

 

[Lokaum D+]

next month gonna be like

(i hate html)

 

[Loomy]

It cost $250million + the $3.6billion they dropped on Bungie.

M&A cost doesn't factor in this.

They could make money on microtransactions, certainly more than they will by selling the game for $40 a pop, f2p players might even justify keeping it alive for a little while and give time to course correct, as it stands I see them shutting it down within a month.

If you believe this game is so bad people won't want to spend $40 on it, you think the few people who play it are going to spend money on mtx?

 

[coachmcguirk91]

Wasn't Avowed the "top seller" on Steam when it released?

On the day of launch, yes. It is common for any AAA game to reach #1 on launch day. It is a very good sign to be in top 5 3-4 days before release, though. That requires good word of mouth

 

[kpopSuperstar]

So instead of making some money, they'd make no money?


Realistically, we have no idea what the budget was, how many copies(regular/deluxe) they sold/will sell, or what the appetite for paid cosmetics are going to be. No one here has any idea what the economics of this game is.

Sony figured they had no chances to recover Concord costs, so they shut it down. If they believed it here, I'm guessing they'd have done the same before spending all that money on the delay.

They wouldn't do that, they will sell hundreds of thousands and earn millions. The problem with concord was that it sold in the low thousands and had zero upside to keep alive. Marathon will earn back a percentage and be worth keeping up for a while, even if it don't cover the budget.

They say marathon was made by a large team over 4 years, so we can safely assume that at minimum it cost over 70-80 million to develop, and as high as maybe 150.

So if we assume the low number of 70, you would need 2-4 million sold at the very least to cover cost. That is likely the absolute minimum of assumptions.

I think it was more expensive, and as a gaas game, we are looking at high ongoing costs.

My ignorant out-of-thin air assumption is that Marathon needs to sell over 4-5 million to cover the budget.

 

[Tiago Rodrigues]

People rely more on CCU than sales. It literally just hit 2nd place on Steam sales globally an hour ago.

The doomers in these threads are delusional

Came here to say this...the game is the 2nd best selling game on steam as we speak and has been top 10 for like a week (after also having some decent pre-orders when they started). Looking at this topic you would think the server slam backfired and now no one wants to buy the game. Seems like it did its job?

Also this idea that a live game needs to peak on day one makes no sense. If the game gets a healthy number of players and is enough for Bungie to make its money back, make more expansions and work on another game, who cares? Not every game needs to be Fortnite, COD or Counter Strike lol. Specially since this is a paid game.

 

[Kacho]

Wasn't Avowed the "top seller" on Steam when it released?

Dragon Age Veilguard as well. Normal activity for new releases.

 

[BlackProdigy]

Missing the game already, can't wait to jump in later this week.

 

[Loomy]

My ignorant out-of-thin air assumption is that Marathon needs to sell over 4-5 million to cover the budget.

I think Marathon easily sells at least 5 million this calendar year.

 

[ChorizoPicozo]

I've challenged ChorizoPicozo to make an avatar bet with me twice. He declined both times, which is fair enough but it's telling.

i dont know how to say this...but sometimes i ghost people (even in real life)...i dont even see their replies....sowrry

There are two kinds of people in the world. Those who want to see the world for what it is and those who want to pretend the world is what they've created in their minds.

Barometers are not for the 2nd group.

I thought there were 3 kinds of people in the world: Dicks, Pussies, and Assholes. Guess what kind i am?
hint:

Spoiler

 

[FMN]

Dragon Age Veilguard as well. Normal activity for new releases.

Ya I figured. CCU seems a lot more indicative of level of success since it's actual number of players.

 

[Loomy]

Ya I figured. CCU seems a lot more indicative of level of success since it's actual number of players.

On one platform. Overwatch(2023) peaked at 165k on Steam.

 

[FMN]

Maybe for a day. Marathon been in top 5 for a week

Avowed is the current Steam Top Seller :: Avowed Avowed Gameplay Discussion

It's subject to change but at the moment Avowed is the top seller on Steam. And well deserved, I've only got a little over 10 hours in it and I've already encountered multiple factions and quests with a variety of outcomes. https://store.steampowered.com/search/?filter=topsellers

steamcommunity.com

Looks like it was the overall top seller for several days at least. Of course that doesn't mean anything since it was a flop.

 

[Hollywood Hitman]

who said there are 500k people interested in this?

if it reach 100k on steam I honestly would be super surpised.

Only praying it has legs on the PlayStation ecosystem. for the sake of Bungie to continue its existance

It was just an arbitrary number, I'm saying that I personally would've expected more than 143k to try the game out. It just doesn't bode well imo for full price

 

[DR3AM]

If Marathon is a success, Sony will pump more live service games. Us hardcore games need to spend more time online bashing the game, it's our duty.

 

[8BiTw0LF]

Looks like it was the overall top seller for several days at least. Of course that doesn't mean anything since it was a flop.

The competiton wasn't RE:9 and ARC Raiders

 

[Loomy]

Looks like it was the overall top seller for several days at least. Of course that doesn't mean anything since it was a flop.

Don't compare it to a game that was day 1 on Gamepass.

 

[coachmcguirk91]

They wouldn't do that, they will sell hundreds of thousands and earn millions. The problem with concord was that it sold in the low thousands and had zero upside to keep alive. Marathon will earn back a percentage and be worth keeping up for a while, even if it don't cover the budget.

They say marathon was made by a large team over 4 years, so we can safely assume that at minimum it cost over 70-80 million to develop, and as high as maybe 150.

So if we assume the low number of 70, you would need 2-4 million sold at the very least to cover cost. That is likely the absolute minimum of assumptions.

I think it was more expensive, and as a gaas game, we are looking at high ongoing costs.

My ignorant out-of-thin air assumption is that Marathon needs to sell over 4-5 million to cover the budget.

I would not be surprised if Marathon cost 500mil, including marketing. Most of Bungie was working on it. Destiny 1 cost 500mil. Paying people in Washington is not cheap

Gotta stop looking at sales metrics. Marathon will probably get a few million in first year sales, but Marathon is a gaas game. The majority of the games revenue will hopefully be through microtransactions. If Marathon is successful it will probably take a couple years to recoup. Bungie hopes it is a decade long gaas games like Fortnite, Apex Legends ect..But that requires Bungie to invest hundreds of millions in content updates as well

 

[Men_in_Boxes]

Dragon Age Veilguard as well. Normal activity for new releases.

Dragon Age Veilguard had horrible player retention.

Marathon will have elite player retention.

Player retention generates sales post launch. "You're still playing that Marathon game? Fine, I'll drop $40 on it."

You don't know it yet, but you're comparing a Daewoo to a Z06 Corvette.

 

[Esquie]

The competiton wasn't RE:9 and ARC Raiders

Arc Raiders has been out for 4 months

Don't compare it to a game that was day 1 on Gamepass.

What are you implying?

 

[WhiteWaterM00se]

I am surprised people are fighting so hard. We will have answers this week on two games that have been the topic of much speculation.

Marathon
Pokopia

We will see what consumers think on these games by this coming weekend.

 

[FMN]

The competiton wasn't RE:9 and ARC Raiders

Marathon is even behind CS2 while Avowed was ahead of it. Avowed was ahead of KCD2 which released a couple weeks prior and ahead of Monster Hunter which was shortly before release.

The point is steam "top seller" says nothing.

 

[8BiTw0LF]

Arc Raiders has been out for 4 months

But is still selling a lot of copies. It's a social game and very streamable. Marathon will not come close to those numbers, but half or less is also good.

 

[coachmcguirk91]

Dragon Age Veilguard as well. Normal activity for new releases.

Veilguard sold incredibly well on launch day. It hit 89k peak, whiich is better than the vast majority of AAA games. People then played the game. Gamers have already played Marathon. The retention rate will be much higher

 

[8BiTw0LF]

Marathon is even behind CS2 while Avowed was ahead of it. Avowed was ahead of KCD2 which released a couple weeks prior and ahead of Monster Hunter which was shortly before release.

The point is steam "top seller" says nothing.

Depends on when it's good to buy lootboxes for future resale

 

[FMN]

Depends on when it's good to buy lootboxes for future resale

Not sure what you mean by this. Avowed released almost exactly a year ago today. CS2 CCU was roughly the same then as it is now.

 

[8BiTw0LF]

Not sure what you mean by this. Avowed released almost exactly a year ago today. CS2 CCU was roughly the same then as it is now.

It has nothing to do with CCU. People buy lootboxes to sell them later when they're at high price and there's a a lot of speculation when it's good to buy and sell, so CS2 numbers are not reliable.

Edit: Also it's first days of the month and people just got paid, so that's why CS2 spiked above RE:9

 

[ChorizoPicozo]

Marathon will have elite player retention.

Uh, yeah. Because the initial number will be lower.

 

[FMN]

It has nothing to do with CCU. People buy lootboxes to sell them later when they're at high price and there's a a lot of speculation when it's good to buy and sell, so CS2 numbers are not reliable.

That's probably just a rounding error compared to the majority of people who buy keys to open cases.

 

[Men_in_Boxes]

Uh, yeah. Because the initial number will be lower.

 

[8BiTw0LF]

That's probably just a rounding error compared to the majority of people who buy keys to open cases.

I edited my post:

Edit: Also it's first days of the month and people just got paid, so that's why CS2 spiked above RE:9

 

[ChorizoPicozo]

On what? The percentage drop is always smaller the "nicher" the group is