March 2015 NPD (U.S. Hardware) Predictions - Closes April 14th

Here I was, thinking my 430K for PS4 was going to top the optimistic Gaf predictions, but seems that last month has lifted many a PS4 prediction^^ PS4 will have 3 "mini Destiny months" this year, and I think this is one of them (along side Batman's June and Metal Gear's September. Xbox will have to settle for just October this pre season^^).

[3DS] 270K
[PS4] 430K
[WIU] 80K
[XB1] 280K

...Just for fun, Bloodborne pulls just shy of 400K, Hardline is 800K across their 9 SKUs, and Type 0 is a still respectable 350K which Square declares "Ultra bomba, high lord of the bomba" and then demands Tomb Raider to make up the difference with a 9 million launch which will never happen.

Edit: I am a card carrying member of optimistic Gaf, but I may be thinking too highly of the New 3DS after its (understandably strong) launch month. Down you go, prediction numbers.
 
Chobel said:
A Witcher bundle is better option and one week promo won't change much. And have I said that The Witcher franchise is not that popular in consoles?
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The bundle's effect would basically last as long as a week long deal, and a free game deal would have a better impact than the bundle.

orochi91 said:
Anyone have the link to the March 2014 NPD results thread?

It seems to have vanished from the internet D:
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http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showthread.php?t=803922
 
[3DS] 120K
[PS4] 405K
[WIU] 50K
[XB1] 150K


I am thinking it will be a bloodbath this month. Amazon has had a couple of PS4 skus floating around #10 lately and the XB1 bundles have been anywhere from 50-60
 
Abdiel said:
Pretty straightforward month:

PS4 is still killing it, easily winning the month in our stores, by a good margin. The MCC bundle really has done nothing to accelerate as direct competition.

Bloodborne did great, better than many of our store supervisors were expecting. Though even with that, Hardline still sold more in our stores... Though nowhere near as good as BF4 did. I'll be interested to see how the trend goes. FF Type 0 also did pretty well, from what I can see. A *huge* slant towards PS4. Seriously, I'm guessing higher than 75% in favor of PS4 for both preorders and sales after the fact.
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The Shogun said:
I miss Aqua

I'm gonna predict anywhere between 250k - 350k for Bloodborne NPD.

*this estimate is entirely my own and not representative of any business or its data.
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As always, thank you guys and gals for all you do for Prediction Gaf^^ Aquamarine, still sad to see you gone, but so glad you found a way to still be part of the community^^
 
bananafactory said:
[3DS] 120K
[PS4] 405K
[WIU] 50K
[XB1] 150K


I am thinking it will be a bloodbath this month. Amazon has had a couple of PS4 skus floating around #10 lately and the XB1 bundles have been anywhere from 50-60
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For the last week, yes, absolutely. It might as well have been a four week month for how poorly their sales kept up going into the end of the tracking period. But for the first four weeks Xbox performed fairly "normal" for them. The monthly chart shows a more "ok" month for Xbox1 than what the hourly has been the last few days.

http://www.amazon.com/gp/bestsellers/2015-03/videogames/ref=zg_bsar_videogames_pg_2?ie=UTF8&pg=2#1
 
Welfare said:
The bundle's effect would basically last as long as a week long deal, and a free game deal would have a better impact than the bundle.
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May is a slow month and this year has no notable games for US market (Sorry The Witcher 3), one week promotion effect will be minimal. A new bundle that lasts till September will surely have a better impact. Free game promotion with The Witcher (or MCC) bundle in the week of Batman Arkham Knight? Now that will be a lot better.
 
Mpl90 said:
Thanks again! Nothing to say about 3DS and games like Evolve and The Order?
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Well, in terms of the N3DS, the system has largely replaced any sales that the older SKUs would have had, but at least in our locations, I don't really see the same explosive momentum (Though, it helped that we got more inventory in, sheesh. Being sold out due to such limited shipments was honestly annoying.)

Okay. So. I will admit, I stared at my little window here contemplating some clever pun about Evolve needing to leave the water and grow some legs... But honestly, the wording just never felt right so I'm just going to let it be. Evolve has not had any kind of continued exuberance/excitement, and it already feels forgotten. I don't anticipate much for it going forward, zero momentum.

The Order isn't selling much better, either, it definitely hit a rut with the poor reviews/mindshare about it, though I've spoken to quite a few customers that enjoyed it quite a lot (as did I, though I did in fact trade in my copy already).
 
Some of PS4 predictions sound really high, why do you think PS4 will get +400k? "Amazon charts" is not a valid answer
 
Chobel said:
Some of PS4 predictions sound really high, why do you think PS4 will get +400k? "Amazon charts" is not a valid answer
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On amazon there have been some good bundles and I know one retailer was doing a trade in of a last gen console and you'd get $175 towards a PS4. I can see the PS4 doing north of 300k. Don't think it'll reach 400k though.

I think it'll EASILY reach over 400k in June though. With their Arkham Knight bundle.
 
BruceLeeRoy said:
It had a game? Good month for them
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tumblr_mjbaqgxIQm1s3u5q3o1_400.gif
 
Anyone know the PS4 numbers for March NPD 2014?

Just wondering if hardware sales this year will topple last years.

Xbox One was 311K last year - I wonder if they can outdo that figure this year?
 
Damn, I missed the first page. How dare GAF makes this thread while I was asleep. ;) Anyway, my predictions:
[PS4] 390K
[XB1] 250K
[3DS] 270K
[WIU] 80K
 
Chobel said:
Some of PS4 predictions sound really high, why do you think PS4 will get +400k? "Amazon charts" is not a valid answer
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There is no "one magic game" that moves a lot of hardware (unless you are Destiny and hopefully Halo 5). In reality a great month is where you have not one, but two or three solid games that will draw in a diverse crowd. Three games like Battlefield, Final Fantasy, and Bloodborne. And it is a five week period, so even just keeping pace with what the Order and Gamestop trade ins did for it would mean 400K.

Edit: Perhaps a better question is "why would the PS4 perform worse than last month or last year with both a longer tracking period and three substantial releases? And "because I don't like those games personally" doesn't count.
 
[PS4] 417K
[XB1] 258k
[WIU] 91K
[3DS] 313K

I'm betting Bloodborne is going to push the hardcore souls crowd to pick up a PS4 this month especially with the overwhelmingly positive word of mouth the game has had. Also I'm expecting Bloodborne NPD sales to be around 455k. While i will likely still be outsold by BF:H on all platforms I do think Bloodborne will be the highest selling single console SKU. I think BF:H will end up selling somewhere in the neighborhood of 620k and be the worst performing Battlefield to date. FF Type 0 will likely have a 80/20 split between PS4 and Xb1 skus respectively and see it selling somewhere in the realm of 380k mostly on the back of the bundled FFXV demo. March NPD is sure to be a strong win for PS4 on pretty much every front with what i expect to be a 120k+ hardware sales gap.
 
[3DS] 277K
[PS4] 384K
[WIU] 90k
[XB1] 295K

Another lowball. PS4 shouldn't have any trouble winning, but it's pre-season, so the difference shouldn't be too massive.
 
After looking at the best-sellers for Amazon 03/2015, I am going to adjust my PS4 number up a bit. I think Bloodborne may have actually moved more consoles than I was predicting.

I realize these rankings are merely relative and we don't know proportions, but I have a feeling about this. The best sellers in Feb had the PS4 and XB1 at #10 and #11 respectively. March has them at #6 and #19, with Bloodborne at #4. I'm guessing the gap is going to grow in March by a surprising amount.
 
Welfare said:
Bishcheckers, is the AC bundle almost gone? I could see a W3 bundle if the only other bundle available was Halo.
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I would also like to know if you Bishcheckers are still receiving AC Bundle Stock or is MCC Bundle replacing it?

If you guys can comment on it, would be helpful.
 
Chobel said:
Some of PS4 predictions sound really high, why do you think PS4 will get +400k? "Amazon charts" is not a valid answer
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Yeah, I'm surprised too. Last year PS4 was still in its "brand new console phase" and had Infamous; Didn't get past 400K. Don't think the PS4 will do it for this month. Don't think Bloodborne will push it that much. The game should have definitely helped sales though.

On top of this, I don't think the Xbox One will be lower than February (under 276K) considering March was a longer period.
 
Bgamer90 said:
Yeah, I'm surprised too. Last year PS4 was still in its "brand new console phase" and had Infamous; Didn't get past 400K. Don't think the PS4 will do it for this month. Don't think Bloodborne will push it that much. The game should have definitely helped sales though.

On top of this, I don't think the Xbox One will be lower than February (under 276K) considering March was a longer period.
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As already stated. Its a 5 week month, on top of that, we have 3 major games released that heavily favor the PS4 platform by a significant margin, and in general momentum from all of that will push it up far higher than your expecting.

I'd say MS is lucky if they aren't outsold by 100k this month considering they have had absolutely nothing to combat Sony with, and the MCC bundle barely has made any waves at all
 
Inuhanyou said:
As already stated. Its a 5 week month,
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Yes. Hence why my prediction is that both consoles will do better than last month.

on top of that, we have 3 major games released that heavily favor the PS4 platform by a significant margin, and in general momentum from all of that will push it up far higher than your expecting.
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I agree that all of it will help the PS4 get March but I would be surprised to see it going over 400K. Xbox 360 didn't get 400K+ Marches until pretty late in the gen (2011+).

I could be wrong though. I've been wrong before.

I'd say MS is lucky if they aren't outsold by 100k this month
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Ehh... Okay. I mean, it's possible for there to be that big of a gap with what I said (Xbox One doing better than February and PS4 being under 400K) still being true.
 
Bgamer90 said:
Yes. Hence why my prediction is that both consoles will do better than last month.



I agree that all of it will help the PS4 get March but I would be surprised to see it going over 400K. Xbox 360 didn't get 400K+ Marches until pretty late in the gen (2011+). I could be wrong though. I've been wrong before.



Ehh... Okay. I mean, it's possible for there to be that big of a gap with what I said (Xbox One doing better than February and PS4 being under 400K) still being true.
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Xbox 360 never got a Final Fantasy, Dark Souls, and Battlefield all in one March either. It is a different release schedule that should bare some changes in how these consoles sell. Wouldn't it be even odder if these titles didn't move some more hardware than if PS4 gets a 400K March before the 360 did?
 
Bgamer90 said:
Yeah, I'm surprised too. Last year PS4 was still in its "brand new console phase" and had Infamous; Didn't get past 400K. Don't think the PS4 will do it for this month. Don't think Bloodborne will push it that much. The game should have definitely helped sales though.

On top of this, I don't think the Xbox One will be lower than February (under 276K) considering March was a longer period.
Click to expand...

It's not just the Amazon ranking and bundles with free games, there are other factors which are taken in account.

Gamestop had a month long trading offer on WiiU and PS4.
Bestbuy had a free camera offer for a week.

Bloodborn had a much higher hype than I thought at launch, with more "generalist" medias gushing all over it, and PS4 sales apparently being boosted by it. Being the first retail exclusive of the two big next gen systems (sorry WiiU) to achieve a 93 MC and overwhelming positive reviews and feedback didn't hurt.

Last, March was a month with no less than 3 retail exclusives on PS4 (Bloodborne, Toukiden Kiwami and MLB15), not counting FF Type 0 HD which while not exclusive did apparently very strongly on PS4.

Looks like for some reason Sony pushed hard in March, while refusing (probably justly so) to budge on price.
 
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