March 2015 NPD (U.S. Hardware) Predictions - Closes April 14th

Trust me said:
Xbox 360 never got a Final Fantasy, Dark Souls, and Battlefield all in one March either.
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It had a few good Marches for game releases. March 2006 comes to my mind the most... It had Ghost Recon and Oblivion + Fight Night 3 was still being pushed then since it released late in February.

It is a different release schedule that should bare some changes in how these consoles sell. Wouldn't it be even odder if these titles didn't move some more hardware than if PS4 gets a 400K March before the 360 did?
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Again, I never said the games won't move more hardware. If anything that's pretty much what I've been saying for these months in terms of why the PS4 will be doing better than the Xbox One for the first half of this year. I simply said that I would be surprised to see the PS4 get over 400K in March.
 
Elandyll said:
It's not just the Amazon ranking and bundles with free games, there are other factors which are taken in account.

Gamestop had a month long trading offer on WiiU and PS4.
Bestbuy had a free camera offer for a week.

Bloodborn had a much higher hype than I thought at launch, with more "generalist" medias gushing all over it, and PS4 sales apparently being boosted by it. Being the first retail exclusive of the two big next gen systems (sorry WiiU) to achieve a 93 MC and overwhelming positive reviews and feedback didn't hurt.

Last, March was a month with no less than 3 retail exclusives on PS4 (Bloodborne, Toukiden Kiwami and MLB15), not counting FF Type 0 HD which while not exclusive did apparently very strongly on PS4.

Looks like for some reason Sony pushed hard in March, while refusing (probably justly so) to budge on price.
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As much as I'm enjoying Toukiden on my PS4 (Imported my Vita save file) let's be real, that game isn't going to move the needle. I couldn't even have my copy pre-ordered through work picked up at the store, I Had to have it shipped from the website. Which is a shame, it's a damn good game, and the new content is very strong so far.

I see your point, that it is still a retail exclusive, but it wasn't cared by all vendors, and those that did, most (if not all) aren't carrying it in stores as a 'random discovery' for people to stumble on.

The Show is doing good work so far though; seeming to lower the cross gen sales more this time around, good bit more PS4 sales of the title. (And hey, even a few vita copies too... heh.)
 
Abdiel said:
As much as I'm enjoying Toukiden on my PS4 (Imported my Vita save file) let's be real, that game isn't going to move the needle. I couldn't even have my copy pre-ordered through work picked up at the store, I Had to have it shipped from the website. Which is a shame, it's a damn good game, and the new content is very strong so far.
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;_;

Hopefully one day Temco Koei come out with a proper curren gen version of Toukiden, this IP is very much full of potential
 
Abdiel said:
Well, in terms of the N3DS, the system has largely replaced any sales that the older SKUs would have had, but at least in our locations, I don't really see the same explosive momentum (Though, it helped that we got more inventory in, sheesh. Being sold out due to such limited shipments was honestly annoying.)

Okay. So. I will admit, I stared at my little window here contemplating some clever pun about Evolve needing to leave the water and grow some legs... But honestly, the wording just never felt right so I'm just going to let it be. Evolve has not had any kind of continued exuberance/excitement, and it already feels forgotten. I don't anticipate much for it going forward, zero momentum.

The Order isn't selling much better, either, it definitely hit a rut with the poor reviews/mindshare about it, though I've spoken to quite a few customers that enjoyed it quite a lot (as did I, though I did in fact trade in my copy already).
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I suppose you mean it's not as explosive as February, right? Also, would you say that sales are still better than what they were before the revision, in terms of people coming to stores and buying the console? Hopefully, I'm not asking too much.

Thank you for answering to my posts, btw!
 
I'll just echo the sentiments of others here: great OP, missing Aqua, thanks to Abdiel and Shogun. These threads are my favorites. See you all on the other side...
 
[3DS] 255k
[PS4] 455K
[WIU] 70k
[XB1] 210K

My son asked for Lego Nijago...have a feeling thats gonna make a killing.
 
[3DS] 240k
[PS4] 425K
[WIU] 50k
[XB1] 280K

PS4 is going have a fantastic month because of all the varied exclusives and trade in deals and bundles. WiiU will have a terrible month with almost no software releasing and the Nintendo news breaking. XB1 will do okey, but will be weakened on the count of PS4 taking away some of their would-be customers.
 
Abdiel said:
As much as I'm enjoying Toukiden on my PS4 (Imported my Vita save file) let's be real, that game isn't going to move the needle. I couldn't even have my copy pre-ordered through work picked up at the store, I Had to have it shipped from the website. Which is a shame, it's a damn good game, and the new content is very strong so far.

I see your point, that it is still a retail exclusive, but it wasn't cared by all vendors, and those that did, most (if not all) aren't carrying it in stores as a 'random discovery' for people to stumble on.

The Show is doing good work so far though; seeming to lower the cross gen sales more this time around, good bit more PS4 sales of the title. (And hey, even a few vita copies too... heh.)
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Notice that I'm not saying that Toukiden is moving PS4's actually ;)

It's just part of a greater picture where "PS4 has games" for people who were holding for when the "AAA exclusive" portfolio of the PS4 would get a bit more furnished.
 
Elandyll said:
Notice that I'm not saying that Toukiden is moving PS4's actually ;)

It's just part of a greater picture where "PS4 has games" for people who were holding for when the "AAA exclusive" portfolio of the PS4 would get a bit more furnished.
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I think the only people who would be saying the opposite, "PS4 has no games" wouldn't have counted Toukiden anyway, along with all of the other games they like to pretend don't exist for a managerie of reasons. To everyone else PS4 is full of games with or without Toukiden.

In short, the point I'm getting at is I agree with Abdiel, Toukiden isnt moving the needle at all.

Also AAA exclusive is a meaningless term. For the majority of people who have one console, every AAA game is an "exclusive".
 
Bgamer90 said:
Yeah, I'm surprised too. Last year PS4 was still in its "brand new console phase" and had Infamous; Didn't get past 400K. Don't think the PS4 will do it for this month. Don't think Bloodborne will push it that much. The game should have definitely helped sales though.

On top of this, I don't think the Xbox One will be lower than February (under 276K) considering March was a longer period.
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Hmmm so you seem to be suggesting xbone will be the same or higher this month than last because of the longer month. Wasn't the PS4 already 352k last month? You don't think it's possible to get another 48k due to the longer counting period? Nevermind the fact that March had more promos for the PS4 than February and had more big software title releases.
 
Jomjom said:
Hmmm so you seem to be suggesting xbone will be the same or higher this month than last because of the longer month. Wasn't the PS4 already 352k last month? You don't think it's possible to get another 48k due to the longer counting period? Nevermind the fact that March had more promos for the PS4 than February and had more big software title releases.
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Exactly. Its crazy he doesn't realize he always paints the best case scenario for a certain box.

[3DS] 210K
[PS4] 390K
[WiiU] 86K
[XB1] 290K


Going with Ps4 being slighly up this year and Xb1 being slightly down.
 
Jomjom said:
Hmmm so you seem to be suggesting xbone will be the same or higher this month than last because of the longer month. Wasn't the PS4 already 352k last month? You don't think it's possible to get another 48k due to the longer counting period? Nevermind the fact that March had more promos for the PS4 than February and had more big software title releases.
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Did you guys skip the fact that I said that both consoles should be higher this month? Not sure some of you are responding to me this way.

I also never said it was impossible. I simply said that I would be surprised to see it happen since over 400K for a system would be extremely good in March.

__________

gtj1092 said:
Exactly. Its crazy he doesn't realize he always paints the best case scenario for a certain box.
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Yet my prediction for both consoles are higher than they were last month with the PS4 being in the top spot. It's hilarious how you seem to react to what I say in constantly the same way when others in this thread feel the same way (I mean, my original post on this was in agreement with someone else).

Not sure how the PS4 being ahead of the Xbox One by ~80K (my prediction) is a "best case scenario".

gtj1092 said:
[3DS] 210K
[PS4] 390K
[WiiU] 86K
[XB1] 290K
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So I guess you are painting a certain box in the "best case scenario" too then considering your XB1/PS4 prediction is pretty similar to my prediction right? Hilarious.
 
[3DS] 250K
[PS4] 380K
[WIU] 95K
[XB1] 260K

basically, everything except the 3ds should be up monthly, but down weekly.

i don't know what the hell is going on with the wii u this year. i doubt a month with a higher profile release will see too big of a dip in sales though, talking both month over month and year over year.
 
AniHawk said:
[3DS] 250K
[PS4] 380K
[WIU] 95K
[XB1] 260K

basically, everything except the 3ds should be up monthly, but down weekly.

i don't know what the hell is going on with the wii u this year. i doubt a month with a higher profile release will see too big of a dip in sales though, talking both month over month and year over year.
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it's called "we're not at the part where Mario Kart 8 came out last year yet"
 
Fun fact: April Amazon tracking is now live. 4 of the 6 days that I can see at this moment will be included in this NPD report.

Here's how it currently stands:

[2] PS4 Batman SE Bundle (not sold this month, so not tracked. It's also sold out)
[3] PS4 Battlefield Hardline
[5] Bloodborne
[6] PS4
[8] XB1 Battlefield Hardline
[12] PS4 MKX (not tracked this month)
[14] PS4 MLB The Show 15
[47] XB1 Assissins Creed Bundle
[50] XB1 MCC Bundle
[79] PS3

Fun stuff. [Edit] I got lazy and didn't completely flush out the rest of the software titles. Sorry. [/Edit]
 
I really wish I knew what things looked like in other chains. I know for us at least, the ps4 had some great momentum all month long. The camera bundle did pretty well too. Probably more of the folks converting up and know they want to play motion games.
 
Abdiel said:
I really wish I knew what things looked like in other chains. I know for us at least, the ps4 had some great momentum all month long. The camera bundle did pretty well too. Probably more of the folks converting up and know they want to play motion games.
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How did The Order do in March, Abdiel?

BTW, thanks for the info. :D
 
theprodigy said:
it's called "we're not at the part where Mario Kart 8 came out last year yet"
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no, it's been up year over year with really nothing to drive sales. at least last year it was coming off the super mario 3d world and price drop combo. this seems to be a prolonged effect of smash bros. and mario kart.
 
AniHawk said:
no, it's been up year over year with really nothing to drive sales. at least last year it was coming off the super mario 3d world and price drop combo. this seems to be a prolonged effect of smash bros. and mario kart.
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why would you expect any differently? the Smash+Mario Kart effect was bigger than the Super Mario 3D World+price drop effect, as the holiday sales for each showed
 
Abdiel said:
I really wish I knew what things looked like in other chains. I know for us at least, the ps4 had some great momentum all month long. The camera bundle did pretty well too. Probably more of the folks converting up and know they want to play motion games.
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Was that camera bundle MSRP or discounted?
 
AniHawk said:
no, it's been up year over year with really nothing to drive sales. at least last year it was coming off the super mario 3d world and price drop combo. this seems to be a prolonged effect of smash bros. and mario kart.
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You see, the great revival has been occurring right under our noses. Naturally, by the end of this year, the monthly sales will be in the millions of units.

More seriously, I don't know why its all that surprising that MK8/Smash are keeping the system running far better than 3DW and a price-drop. Smash is all over the internet, on Twitch, on YouTube, and its got a fanbase that will make you know all about it. MK8 went viral and has more or less solidified itself in one form or another because of the death stares.
 
AniHawk said:
no, it's been up year over year with really nothing to drive sales. at least last year it was coming off the super mario 3d world and price drop combo. this seems to be a prolonged effect of smash bros. and mario kart.
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Mario Party hype.
 
Vena said:
You see, the great revival has been occurring right under our noses. Naturally, by the end of this year, the monthly sales will be in the millions of units.

More seriously, I don't know why its all that surprising that MK8/Smash are keeping the system running far better than 3DW and a price-drop. Smash is all over the internet, on Twitch, on YouTube, and its got a fanbase that will make you know all about it. MK8 went viral and has more or less solidified itself in one form or another because of the death stares.
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it just seems weird that it would linger after the holidays is all. i fully expect it to fall behind starting in may at the very least, unless splatoon turns out to be a system seller like none other. no zelda this year probably guarantees another price drop come september though. still, i think the platform will finish out 2015 at the 1.3-1.4m range. a decline from the previous year but not a sharp drop off (that's what 2016 is for!).
 
gtj1092 said:
Exactly. Its crazy he doesn't realize he always paints the best case scenario for a certain box.
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Since this is a prediction-based thread, I think there's a couple of things here:

There are actual checks on what he say and doesn't say. If you think he's too positive for one of the boxes, you can actually checkout his past predictions and see how they compare to reality. Maybe they are just too positive in general? Maybe it's your perspective of what he's saying that's a little skewed?

I don't mean to unnecessarily "white knight", but that's one of the great things about these predictions -- we can actually SEE how people are doing and fundament the debate from there!
 
Blanquito said:
Fun fact: April Amazon tracking is now live. 4 of the 6 days that I can see at this moment will be included in this NPD report.

Here's how it currently stands:

[2] PS4 Batman SE Bundle (not sold this month, so not tracked. It's also sold out)
[3] PS4 Battlefield Hardline
[5] Bloodborne
[6] PS4
[8] XB1 Battlefield Hardline
[12] PS4 MKX (not tracked this month)
[14] PS4 MLB The Show 15
[47] XB1 Assissins Creed Bundle
[50] XB1 MCC Bundle
[79] PS3

Fun stuff. [Edit] I got lazy and didn't completely flush out the rest of the software titles. Sorry. [/Edit]
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Not a big deal but for anyone wondering, BF:H has been 39.99 since March 29th, while Bloodborne has stayed full price pretty much in April ($58.50 or more).
 
I know I say this about most prediction threads, but this one is going exceptionally slow. Almost two days and we're on the same page. Oh, well, can't wait for the November and December prediction threads. Anyway, thanks for the info, Abdiel!
 
Javin98 said:
I know I say this about most prediction threads, but this one is going exceptionally slow. Almost two days and we're on the same page. Oh, well, can't wait for the November and December prediction threads. Anyway, thanks for the info, Abdiel!
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To be fair, it's not really anything interesting. The PS4 will win out for the next few months till maybe October. That's when I think we'll get more involvment
 
Abdiel said:
The Show is doing good work so far though; seeming to lower the cross gen sales more this time around, good bit more PS4 sales of the title. (And hey, even a few vita copies too... heh.)
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This. Surprised me to see how many customers picked up pre-orders for the Vita version last week.
 
Javin98 said:
I know I say this about most prediction threads, but this one is going exceptionally slow. Almost two days and we're on the same page. Oh, well, can't wait for the November and December prediction threads. Anyway, thanks for the info, Abdiel!
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We know who's winning, no point in predicting for some.
 
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