Go read up how pandemics start, ff you know the Black Death started small, in the course of 6 years, yes 6 years it took millions of lives. And in that age we didn’t travel the world in such a connected way. And the mortality of this virus is higher than FLU, that’s a fact.
Remember to check what our tech tree looked like in Black Death days compared to now. We've scienced quite a lot since then.
Also, the mortality of this virus is currently higher than the flu based on numbers that do not tell an accurate story of how many people are actually infected with this virus.
I can't speak for others but my main concern is getting it myself then spreading it to my loved ones who are at a much higher risk than myself.
This is a reasonable take, and what most people should be cautious of.
@ruvikx
If it was no big deal why would China go to the lengths they did to try and contain it?
This notion of 'well Flu kills more people' as a base metric is all well and good, but the thing is standard Flu is something humanity has coped with for quite some time and is found almost everywhere whereas Covid 19 is something entirely new that people are experiencing for the first time and at least based on infections/deaths is a lot deadlier. Even if the WHO assessment of 3.4% mortality rate is off (which equates to 1 in 29 people who are infected dying) you're still talking about a virus that could potentially kill a couple of hundred million people if unchecked, and at any point could evolve into a deadlier strain.
China went to the extreme lengths it did because it fucked up the initial containment and let the disease get out of hand. Once a healthcare system is overwhelmed beyond capacity, things start to spiral out of control. This is the worst case scenario for areas that do not take proper countermeasures early enough.
Nowhere else in the world is at that point yet. Everyone is doing their best to contain the virus and not let it spiral out of control to Wuhan levels. The places I'd be most worried about are countries with shit healthcare and incompetent governments. First world countries are, more or less, handling it fine at the moment.
Requoting for the justtheflubros. Please read.
It's not gospel or anything, but based off of numbers we're seeing from elsewhere it is a very real possibility that areas of the medical infrastructure system can be overwhelmed from this. 10% of all cases needing hospitalization is huge. Especially since it is seeming to take people a very long while to recover and actually not have the virus any longer.
The death of a larger % of our elderly loved ones is just a side note I guess.
It's a possibility, but how accurate can this "math" be, when we can't even get accurate numbers to begin with? We're constrained by the testing kits. If detection methods are bottlenecking your data, then it can lead to erroneous conclusions. For example, we have more earthquakes on record than before, and autism rates are increasing more than before. Is it because we're having more eathquakes and people are more likely to get autism in the modern era? No, not really.
A temporary increase or decrease in seismicity is part of the normal fluctuation of earthquake rates. Neither an increase nor decrease worldwide is a positive indication that a large earthquake is imminent. The ComCat earthquake catalog contains an increasing number of earthquakes in recent...
www.usgs.gov
The
ComCat earthquake catalog contains an increasing number of earthquakes in recent years not because there are more earthquakes, but because there are more seismic instruments and they are able to record more earthquakes.
A hard look at whether the rise comes from more awareness, better diagnosis—or something else
www.scientificamerican.com
The
prevalence of autism in the United States has risen steadily since researchers first began tracking it in 2000. The rise in the rate has sparked fears of an autism ‘epidemic.’ But experts say the bulk of the increase stems from a growing awareness of autism and changes to the condition’s diagnostic criteria.
Caution and preparation are advised. Panic is not. Keep cool and carry on.