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Mask Efficacy |OT| Wuhan!! Got You All In Check
- Thread starter keraj37
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Smiles and Cries
Member
good points from Dr. Campbell
They will be forced to test at some point, can't ignore this thing for that long. Might be waiting until it is too late to save the Olympic games.
They will be forced to test at some point, can't ignore this thing for that long. Might be waiting until it is too late to save the Olympic games.
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D
Deleted member 17706
Unconfirmed Member
Not sure what the UK's criteria has been, but Japan has only been testing people with more serious symptoms after talking with a doctor and being suspected of possibly having the Coronavirus, so that's likely to lead to a higher number of positives to number of people tested.
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lyan
Member
He got a few colleagues who were tested positive, bear with him.
Smiles and Cries
Member
we need turn this around
D
Deleted member 17706
Unconfirmed Member
What's the logic behind this?
Kadayi
Banned
I guess maybe from the perspective of a lack of viable hosts to infect? Still, you're embracing inevitable fatalities going down that route.
Smiles and Cries
Member
US surgeon general says 75,000 coronavirus tests are available right now for the public
From CNN Health's Jacqueline Howard
Currently, there are about 75,000 coronavirus tests available for the American public, US Surgeon General Dr. Jerome Adams told CNN's Jake Tapper on "State of the Union” today.
edition.cnn.com
good good
From CNN Health's Jacqueline Howard
Currently, there are about 75,000 coronavirus tests available for the American public, US Surgeon General Dr. Jerome Adams told CNN's Jake Tapper on "State of the Union” today.
US surgeon general says 75,000 coronavirus tests are available right now for the public
The novel coronavirus has killed more than 3,500 people, and infected over 105,000, according to CNN's tally -- the majority in mainland China. View the latest news.
good good
betrayal
Banned
Exactly. Of course it depends on the duration of immunity after an infection. However, it currently looks as if this is somewhere between several months and years. And of course this would not be a desirable scenario, especially for older people and people with pre-existing conditions.
It should not be forgotten, of course, that two-thirds of the spread at the current spreading speed would take several years and the virus will generally be more regionally limited in its activity (due to the countermeasures), for example in major cities and highly frequented regions.
This long period of time alone will result in the availability of vaccines and several drugs. The first of these are already available and one is even already approved and used in China. In the course of 1-2 months there will certainly be others that are also approved in the vast majority of countries.
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SirKicksalot
Member
The more I think about this the less sense it makes.
What's the difference between such an event and a school or university? Or the metro? Train station?
What about the difference between a football game attendance and a nightclub, in terms of personal space and fluids flying around?
Can't help but hope the pandemic really hurts Europe. Maybe this is the wake-up call our countries need in order to get their shit together. Muh freedoms should not be in this conversation, especially when we saw certain Asian countries doing it right.
Sakura
Member
OK so in my prefecture, there has been 3 cases.
The first case had symptoms on Feb 13th, so he was infected before that. So coronavirus has been in the prefecture for more than 3 weeks.
There is no indication that they are doing any kind of contact tracing or anything.
They don't know where case 1 got the disease. Case 1 has no recent history of travelling overseas. He does not use public transit. He is unemployed.
They only mention having tested his wife, and child. They don't say whether they tested the people who worked at the two different health facilities he visited with symptoms.
Case 2 is the wife of case 1, so it is obvious where she got it from.
She had symptoms starting the 17th, fever in the 37s on the 18th, and she went to work via taxi on the 19th. The next day CT scans revealed she had pneumonia.
They don't bother to mention whether they tested any of her co-workers. They won't say what her job is, just that she is a part-timer, so it is probably customer service or something. She literally worked, the day before it was discovered she had pneumonia, in the middle of the 6th largest city in Japan, but it's ok I guess because it says she was wearing a mask.
Case 3 is a taxi driver (not the same taxi driver that drove case 2).
It is unknown where he got the disease. No history of travel overseas, and no history of contact with other infected people (you aren't testing people so no duh).
The guy started having symptoms on the 19th. He ended up going to a hospital on the 25th, because he had a fever in the 38s, cough, and difficulty breathing. But they didn't even fucking bother testing him until March 1st.
They make a point of mentioning how they tested the medical staff who came into contact with him, which is why I'm suspect of the fact they don't mention any of that for the first two case.
In any case, the disease has been in the prefecture for over 3 weeks, they were pretty slow in testing the people who are confirmed cases, and they don't seem to be doing much at all in regards to contact tracing, so I really think there are actually a lot more cases, and they just don't want to test, or tell us. Hopefully it doesn't end up being a big deal, but I wouldn't be surprised if this blows up in their faces.
Smiles and Cries
Member
welp things might get a little weird in the US
Captain Zyrain
Member
Smiles and Cries
Member
Smiles and Cries
Member
I think everyone is a bit confused right now they really don't know what to do. More and more it is trending towards lockdowns and cancelled public events. I am overwhelmed with closings and such I don't post them all. example
Vatican Museums closed due to coronavirus
The novel coronavirus has killed more than 3,500 people, and infected over 105,000, according to CNN's tally -- the majority in mainland China. View the latest news.
Greece announces public gathering restrictions as coronavirus cases rise
The novel coronavirus has killed more than 3,500 people, and infected over 105,000, according to CNN's tally -- the majority in mainland China. View the latest news.
Smiles and Cries
Member
US surgeon general: Coronavirus response is "shifting into a mitigation phase"
From CNN Health's Jacqueline Howard
As the novel coronavirus spreads in the United States, the nation's response to the outbreak has moved from a containment phase to a mitigation phase, US Surgeon General Dr. Jerome Adams told CNN's Jake Tapper on "State of the Union” today.
edition.cnn.com
From CNN Health's Jacqueline Howard
As the novel coronavirus spreads in the United States, the nation's response to the outbreak has moved from a containment phase to a mitigation phase, US Surgeon General Dr. Jerome Adams told CNN's Jake Tapper on "State of the Union” today.
US surgeon general: Coronavirus response is "shifting into a mitigation phase"
The novel coronavirus has killed more than 3,500 people, and infected over 105,000, according to CNN's tally -- the majority in mainland China. View the latest news.
Stouffers
Banned
I GUESS WE’RE GONNA FIND OUT
Smiles and Cries
Member
Passengers on the Grand Princess cruise ship will be transferred to federal military installations for medical screening, novel coronavirus testing and a 14-day quarantine, after the ship docks temporarily in a non-passenger port in San Francisco Bay tomorrow, according to the US Department of Health and Human Services.
Nearly 1,000 passengers who are California residents will complete the mandatory quarantine at Travis Air Force Base and Miramar Naval Air Station, and residents of other states will complete the mandatory quarantine at Joint Base San Antonio Lackland in Texas or Dobbins Air Force Base in Georgia, the Department of Health and Human Services says.
Additionally, the Department of State is working closely with the home countries of several hundred passengers to arrange for repatriation to their home countries.
Waiting for the CNN dummy to fix the typo before I can link to the posted report.
Smiles and Cries
Member
New York confirms 16 new coronavirus cases
From CNN's Elizabeth Joseph
Sixteen new cases of coronavirus have been confirmed in New York, Gov. Andrew Cuomo announced this morning.
This update brings the total number of state-wide cases to 105.
Here is the breakdown of cases across the state:
edition.cnn.com
From CNN's Elizabeth Joseph
Sixteen new cases of coronavirus have been confirmed in New York, Gov. Andrew Cuomo announced this morning.
This update brings the total number of state-wide cases to 105.
Here is the breakdown of cases across the state:
- Westchester: 82
- NYC: 12
- Nassau: 5
- Rockland: 2
- Saratoga: 2
- Suffolk: 1
- Ulster: 1
New York confirms 16 new coronavirus cases
The novel coronavirus has killed more than 3,500 people, and infected over 105,000, according to CNN's tally -- the majority in mainland China. View the latest news.
ThatStupidLion
Gold Member
Parents were goin on a cruise today. Cruise got cancelled this morning.
So i guess businesses are stepping up their action
So i guess businesses are stepping up their action
Smiles and Cries
Member
I don't really think it was a business action. CDC just shut down a 3rd ship in L.A. not allowing it to go out. So far today 2 countries have banned Cruises Ships from coming to shore. So they are being forced to stop right now.
Alternative
Neo Member
I was experimenting with the little ML I know in order to estimate the number of infections in the coming days in the Netherlands. The estimates have been pretty spot on for the last two days
betrayal
Banned
According to the thread, you don't have it, because an infection would kill you on the spot with a 100% chance.
However, if you were to survive somehow, you would be completely paralyzed, your organs would implode, you would be impotent, and you would have hellish pain every day for which there is no cure.
Smiles and Cries
Member
Bullshit, I like you here I think you balance things out, I've been trying to be patient with you but stop being a baby you are not helping.
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Nice job! I live in Twente.I was experimenting with the little ML I know in order to estimate the number of infections in the coming days in the Netherlands. The estimates have been pretty spot on for the last two days
I did crude math for Europe if this trend continues we could have 400,000 cases in 18 days. Can you do one for Europe?
Yesterday Europe had about 7000 cases.
today I did last of my prepare shopping, got toilet paper, canned foods , sausages, smeerkaas , water, cookies, rice, potatoes , condensed milk (stays longer eatable, don’t know correct english name) pancake mix, and some other stuff, for me and my family,you never know , if not needed, most is stuff we eat anyway.
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betrayal
Banned
Besides obvious shitposting now and then I don't want to "balance things out". I only write what corresponds most closely to reason, common sense and facts.
Smiles and Cries
Member
Captain Zyrain
Member
More. But no deaths?
Jtibh
Banned
Its only a matter of time before my sister and my wife will collapse under the pressure.
Both nurses. My wife in trauma where her unit has the only isolatin rooms and negative pressure rooms. That they only have 2.
Some die after 2 weeks , that’s what happend in China. We are only a little bit more than a week in ..
Smiles and Cries
Member
I don't really think you have proven to be an agent of good faith in here. You pick and choose your numbers, so they fit your outlook. That is why I say you balance things out. It is fine you are welcome to your opinion.
As far as reason, common sense and facts. Yeah right try harder. I think you could be very helpful in here if you want to be but you enjoy yourself too much.
We can joke in here, go for it we need a laugh. But the misinformation does not help anyone. Don't make bullshit claims that according to this thread such and such. You could be more helpful on here you know?
Jtibh
Banned
I see closings of events even in countries where they have only 2 cases.I think everyone is a bit confused right now they really don't know what to do. More and more it is trending towards lockdowns and cancelled public events. I am overwhelmed with closings and such I don't post them all. example
Vatican Museums closed due to coronavirus
The novel coronavirus has killed more than 3,500 people, and infected over 105,000, according to CNN's tally -- the majority in mainland China. View the latest news.Greece announces public gathering restrictions as coronavirus cases rise
The novel coronavirus has killed more than 3,500 people, and infected over 105,000, according to CNN's tally -- the majority in mainland China. View the latest news.
Hungary is closing all public events on their march 15th celebration day.
This is just another case of over reacting and will just piss people off.
keraj37
Contacted PSN to add his card back to his account
Smiles and Cries
Member
See that is why we need that betrayal guy in here to balance you negative guys out. Can't Germany just have some magic dust?
Why you got to be
Smiles and Cries
Member
It is not a bad thing to act first, being proactive instead of reactive to this. I think it is fine for countries to act before they have cases.
But yes, anything you do will piss someone off. Allow the events people get sick they sue or vote you out of office. This is a lose, lose for leadership right now.
If you act first and no one gets sick (because you did something) no one thinks you saved them they just think you messed with their normal life.
If you allow events and people start dying a few weeks later, they are going to say you did nothing to prevent deaths.
I don't see a win here.
Jtibh
Banned
Who
Who's this for?
Smiles and Cries
Member
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Alternative
Neo Member
I am not confident we can extract something too precise for Europe because every country reports and handles the situation on its own. This makes getting precise data pretty iffy. Also estimating becomes more and more difficult the further you go.
With all that said here is something I compiled with the data I managed to dig up.
Jtibh
Banned
I
Not to say its wrong but just adds to the toilet paper hysteria and people later when its realy getting serious will maybe not go for it anymore ,claiming crying wolf too many times.
I Guess what i ment with this is that here in canada there are no proactive measures though we have lots of cases and in other countries where there is maybe 2 they go to the extreme and almost seems they just follow the trend.
Not to say its wrong but just adds to the toilet paper hysteria and people later when its realy getting serious will maybe not go for it anymore ,claiming crying wolf too many times.
Jtibh
Banned
Oh yeah i cant se him. Never mind. It was just confusing me.
Jtibh
Banned
This mornings summery.
- New York State confirms 16 new cases bringing total north of 100
- 16 million Italians wake up under quarantine
- Pope Francis cancels Sunday address
- Dr. Fauci warns community spread is getting out of control.
- 'Grand Princess' to dock in Oakland on Monday
- Saudi Arabia quarantines province
- Spain death toll hits 17, 600+ cases
- Cuomo says he wants to avoid closing NYC schools, transit if possible
- Iran official death toll hits 194
- Daegu Mayor says outbreak may be slowing as number of new cases falls
Smiles and Cries
Member
Oh right go to Egypt, make Germany's numbers all weird and shit
I dunno about you guys but this whole thing has felt like an episode of The Twilight Zone
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NeoIkaruGAF
Gold Member
Oh, I guess some of them are, all right.
What people outside Italy may not know is that a draft of the Prime Minister’s decree was leaked to the press hours before the final text was approved. So people visiting the newly quarantined areas flocked to train stations to get back home before the decree went fully operational. We’ll see the results soon enough, if any.
In the end, though, even more provinces than initially decreed have been quarantined. This decree is going to be valid until April 3rd. That’s 10 days from Easter. If the spread of the virus doesn’t sharply decreased by then, we could see actual riots and very irresponsible behavior.
Smiles and Cries
Member
Yeah BNO was posting the draft hours before I even posted BNO's tweets about it. It is like the head start Wuhan had I guess so people rushed out.
Hey Wuhan did decrease after a while. Numbers are way down if China is to be believed so it is worth a shot in Italy.
eot
Banned
Fits like this aren't super helpful honestly, especially when you're using a scale where it's impossible to tell how well it fits the data. What's the RMS error on the fits?I am not confident we can extract something too precise for Europe because every country reports and handles the situation on its own. This makes getting precise data pretty iffy. Also estimating becomes more and more difficult the further you go.
With all that said here is something I compiled with the data I managed to dig up.
Generally fits are useful when you have an underlying model that you think describes some process, then collect data and tune your free parameters (ideally as few as possible) to see if you can reproduce that data. If you fit using a function you have no a priori reason to think describes the data, then it has no predictive power. In fact, there are infinite ways to perfectly fit any dataset.
Jtibh
Banned
Where there any locals who escaped the lockdown?
Like in china?
So they would not be locked in with the infected ones?
Smiles and Cries
Member
to update this thing
All Hail C-Webb
Hailing from the Chill-Web
There's no crying wolf with this virus.
Taking drastic action early on is by far the best measure.
The countries that take their time are just delaying the inevitable, or worse.
Looking at the numbers in Warner areas, there is still community spread, but it seems slower. It might be limited to close contact indoors. The US and Canada need to take drastic action now. Curb the spread of the virus now, and we might have a shot of containing it in the Summer.
If we keep on our current path, we'll be too far gone by Summer.
Smiles and Cries
Member
First coronavirus case in Memphis-area announced
From CNN's Melissa Alonso
The first case of the novel coronavirus in the Memphis area was announced today by Shelby County Mayor Lee Harris. This is the second case confirmed in Tennessee.
Shelby County Health Department officials said the individual "traveled out of state recently," but would not provide additional details.
The individual tested positive for coronavirus yesterday and the specimen will now be tested by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, according to state health officials. This presumptive positive case comes a few days after the first case of coronavirus was identified in Williamson County.
"We're taking this situation very seriously," Memphis Mayor Jim Strickland said.
edition.cnn.com
From CNN's Melissa Alonso
The first case of the novel coronavirus in the Memphis area was announced today by Shelby County Mayor Lee Harris. This is the second case confirmed in Tennessee.
Shelby County Health Department officials said the individual "traveled out of state recently," but would not provide additional details.
The individual tested positive for coronavirus yesterday and the specimen will now be tested by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, according to state health officials. This presumptive positive case comes a few days after the first case of coronavirus was identified in Williamson County.
"We're taking this situation very seriously," Memphis Mayor Jim Strickland said.
First coronavirus case in Memphis-area announced
The novel coronavirus has killed more than 3,500 people, and infected over 105,000, according to CNN's tally -- the majority in mainland China. View the latest news.
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