not sure what to think of this but i hope he’s right
Nations are closing borders, stocks are plummeting and a New York Times headline reads: “The Coronavirus Has Put the World’s Economy in Survival Mode.” Both political parties have realized the cris…
nypost.com
This is some dumb shit.
He's doing that false comparing with the flu again.
In 2018, the CDC estimated, there were 80,000 flu deaths. That’s against 19 coronavirus deaths so far, from about 470 cases.
Worldwide, there have been about 3,400 coronavirus deaths, out of about 100,000 identified cases. Flu, by comparison, grimly reaps about 291,000 to 646,000 annually.
Let's talk about how many flu deaths there were, but not how many flu illnesses, because it makes the flu seem worse.
China is the origin of the virus and still accounts for over 80 percent of cases and deaths. But its cases peaked and began declining more than a month ago...
Subsequent countries will follow this same pattern, in what’s called Farr’s Law.
The opinion piece completely ignores all the measures China took to contain this and reduce infections. It reads as though the disease just peaked and started declining on its own.
Consider that the first known coronavirus cases date back to early December, and since then, the virus has afflicted fewer people in total than flu does in a few days. Oh, and why are there no flu quarantines? Because it’s so contagious, it would be impossible.
Millions of people have the flu at any given time, so no shit.
As for death rates, as I first noted in these pages on Jan. 24,
you can’t employ simple math — as everyone is doing — and look at deaths versus cases because those are reported cases. With both flu and assuredly with coronavirus, the great majority of those infected have symptoms so mild — if any — that they don’t seek medical attention and don’t get counted in the caseload.
Sure. We have no idea what the final death rate will be. It could very well end up being 3%, or it could be 1%, or some other number. But "we don't know" doesn't mean "it will be the same as the flu", and I think it would be incredibly stupid to operate under the assumption that the death rate is going to be just the same as the flu, and not worry about it.
Something to consider, during the 2009 pandemic, when looking at confirmed cases and deaths, we had death rates of less than 1%, for example total cases in July was 77201 with 332 deaths, giving a death rate of about 0.4%. Back then we would've had the same issue of unreported cases of mild symptoms etc. Yet with coronavirus we are at about 3%, I think it would be very unlikely for this to end up having the same numbers as a regular flu.
Furthermore, those calculating rates ignore the importance of good health care. Given that the vast majority of cases have occurred in a country with poor health care, that’s going to dramatically exaggerate the death rate.
So what about the situation in Italy? I guess Italy is one of those poor countries with poor health care. (maybe it is though, no idea)
The rate also varies tremendously according to age, with a Chinese government analysis showing 0.2 percent deaths below age 40 but 14.8 percent above 80. A study published last month in the Journal of the American Medical Association found zero deaths worldwide among children 9 and under. Zero.
So are we supposed to believe the Chinese numbers or not? Because those are pretty bad numbers.
More good news. This month, the Northern Hemisphere, which includes the countries with the most cases, starts heating up. Almost all respiratory viruses hate warm and moist weather. That’s why flu dies out in America every year by May at the latest and probably why Latin America has reported only 25 coronavirus cases.
While it probably won't be able to spread as much in the summer as colder months, that doesn't mean it won't spread, and the issue is more in how many people it will have infected by then. February 1st we were at 12,000 or so cases. March 1st 87,000. Who knows what we will be at by May, especially if people take the attitude of "It's just the flu".
Also, the flu never dies out, even in the summer. Just look at the swine flu pandemic. It started in April. In the US, there were 141 confirmed cases in May, then 8,975 in June, then 27,717 in July, and 43,771 in August.