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Mask Efficacy |OT| Wuhan!! Got You All In Check

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12Goblins

Lil’ Gobbie
776efe04a0c5e1da4ca3985110ca5471.png


;_;
 

Sakura

Member
not sure what to think of this but i hope he’s right
This is some dumb shit.
He's doing that false comparing with the flu again.
In 2018, the CDC estimated, there were 80,000 flu deaths. That’s against 19 coronavirus deaths so far, from about 470 cases.

Worldwide, there have been about 3,400 coronavirus deaths, out of about 100,000 identified cases. Flu, by comparison, grimly reaps about 291,000 to 646,000 annually.
Let's talk about how many flu deaths there were, but not how many flu illnesses, because it makes the flu seem worse.

China is the origin of the virus and still accounts for over 80 percent of cases and deaths. But its cases peaked and began declining more than a month ago...
Subsequent countries will follow this same pattern, in what’s called Farr’s Law.
The opinion piece completely ignores all the measures China took to contain this and reduce infections. It reads as though the disease just peaked and started declining on its own.

Consider that the first known coronavirus cases date back to early December, and since then, the virus has afflicted fewer people in total than flu does in a few days. Oh, and why are there no flu quarantines? Because it’s so contagious, it would be impossible.
Millions of people have the flu at any given time, so no shit.

As for death rates, as I first noted in these pages on Jan. 24, you can’t employ simple math — as everyone is doing — and look at deaths versus cases because those are reported cases. With both flu and assuredly with coronavirus, the great majority of those infected have symptoms so mild — if any — that they don’t seek medical attention and don’t get counted in the caseload.
Sure. We have no idea what the final death rate will be. It could very well end up being 3%, or it could be 1%, or some other number. But "we don't know" doesn't mean "it will be the same as the flu", and I think it would be incredibly stupid to operate under the assumption that the death rate is going to be just the same as the flu, and not worry about it.
Something to consider, during the 2009 pandemic, when looking at confirmed cases and deaths, we had death rates of less than 1%, for example total cases in July was 77201 with 332 deaths, giving a death rate of about 0.4%. Back then we would've had the same issue of unreported cases of mild symptoms etc. Yet with coronavirus we are at about 3%, I think it would be very unlikely for this to end up having the same numbers as a regular flu.

Furthermore, those calculating rates ignore the importance of good health care. Given that the vast majority of cases have occurred in a country with poor health care, that’s going to dramatically exaggerate the death rate.
So what about the situation in Italy? I guess Italy is one of those poor countries with poor health care. (maybe it is though, no idea)

The rate also varies tremendously according to age, with a Chinese government analysis showing 0.2 percent deaths below age 40 but 14.8 percent above 80. A study published last month in the Journal of the American Medical Association found zero deaths worldwide among children 9 and under. Zero.
So are we supposed to believe the Chinese numbers or not? Because those are pretty bad numbers.

More good news. This month, the Northern Hemisphere, which includes the countries with the most cases, starts heating up. Almost all respiratory viruses hate warm and moist weather. That’s why flu dies out in America every year by May at the latest and probably why Latin America has reported only 25 coronavirus cases.
While it probably won't be able to spread as much in the summer as colder months, that doesn't mean it won't spread, and the issue is more in how many people it will have infected by then. February 1st we were at 12,000 or so cases. March 1st 87,000. Who knows what we will be at by May, especially if people take the attitude of "It's just the flu".
Also, the flu never dies out, even in the summer. Just look at the swine flu pandemic. It started in April. In the US, there were 141 confirmed cases in May, then 8,975 in June, then 27,717 in July, and 43,771 in August.
 

lyan

Member
To be honest, he probably is right.

If you keep looking at the numbers, and not stories about the numbers, everything he states is true.

China and SK’s numbers have dropped off significantly. Also, he mentions something largely ignored by people hating on America’s healthcare and government response in the wake of all this — China’s healthcare is not good.

The situation is serious, but there is still too much unwarranted hysteria and panic.
He is betting on the collective wisdom of humanity to out-smart the virus, which in the end is the more likely outcome given the knowledge and technology we possess. Yes things will probably end up ok but that is precisely because the world is not run by dumbasses who thinks "but the flu".
Just one of those who would come out and say "told you its nothing" when things are sorted ignoring all the effort put into the matter (similar to the way how some mention China now).
 
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chitzy

Banned
I've been a huge Trump supporter since 2015 but so far I'm very disappointed in his response to this.

Btw, futures are showing the market opening down about 5% tomorrow. Oil is crashing as well. Cheap gas at least?
 

Ixion

Member
see, they lie too much. When I first posted the news I remember a part saying Trump and Pence was not even near the guy. And they said no one was in contact with him. Now people are putting out Press Releases. And Trump is making jokes.

Not sure where the lie is. Trump and Pence didn't come into contact with the guy who tested positive. They came into contact with a guy who came into contact with the guy. So obviously it just took some time to identify that link.
 
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betrayal

Banned
To be honest, he probably is right.

If you keep looking at the numbers, and not stories about the numbers, everything he states is true.

China and SK’s numbers have dropped off significantly. Also, he mentions something largely ignored by people hating on America’s healthcare and government response in the wake of all this — China’s healthcare is not good.

The situation is serious, but there is still too much unwarranted hysteria and panic.

Be careful. Optimistic and going by numbers instead of headlines is something some people don't like here.

These are the same people or doctors who make YouTube videos who said 3-4 weeks ago that it will spread unchecked in China or South Korea and that we should all be prepared because we will all get it.

I'm very sure that the numbers from Italy will fall this week and maybe then people (and some countries) will run out of excuses as more and more countries manage to contain the virus.
 
Not sure where the lie is. Trump and Pence didn't come into contact with the guy who tested positive. They came into contact with a guy who came into contact with the guy. So obviously it just took some time to identify that link.

Sure sure, but when are we going to learn what Corona Chan has been trying to teach us?



We are all connnected my friend, we are all connected.
 
I wonder how the worst stock market crash in recent memory about to happen in 6 hours will effect the ongoing panic.

I was wondering if they could not take steps against this, did they not shut this down after 9/11 for a while. Can't they just put a pause for a little while until people calm down and adjust to this?

But then again many of them might want the market open because even tanking there is vast new oportunities to become very stinky rich from these low times. So I am not sure I buy the pretend panic among these guys.
 
There are now 565 coronavirus cases in the United States
From CNN's Tina Burnside in Atlanta

There are 565 people in the United States who have contracted the novel coronavirus, according to the state and local health agencies, governments and the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC).


Here's a state-by-state breakdown of the cases:
  1. Arizona: 5 cases
  2. California: 89 cases, 1 fatality
  3. Colorado: 8 cases
  4. Connecticut: 1 case
  5. DC: 1 case
  6. Florida: 13 cases, 2 fatalities
  7. Georgia: 11 cases
  8. Hawaii: 2 cases
  9. Illinois: 7 cases
  10. Indiana: 2 cases
  11. Iowa: 3 cases
  12. Kansas: 1 case
  13. Kentucky: 4 cases
  14. Maryland: 5 cases
  15. Massachusetts: 28 cases
  16. Minnesota: 2 cases
  17. Missouri: 1 case
  18. Nebraska: 3 cases
  19. Nevada: 4 cases
  20. New Hampshire: 4 cases
  21. New Jersey: 6 cases
  22. New York: 106 cases
  23. North Carolina: 2 cases
  24. Oklahoma: 1 case
  25. Oregon: 14 cases
  26. Pennsylvania: 6 cases
  27. Rhode Island: 3 cases
  28. South Carolina: 6 cases
  29. Tennessee: 3 cases
  30. Texas: 12 cases
  31. Utah: 1 case
  32. Vermont: 1 case
  33. Virginia: 2 cases
  34. Washington state: 137 cases, 19 fatalities
  35. Wisconsin: 1 case

US death toll is now at 22, with one new death in Washington
From CNN's Jason Kravarik

A coronavirus patient in Grant County, Washington, has died, according the Grant County Health District.


A third coronavirus patient has died in the UK
From CNN’s Hira Humayun in Atlanta

The UK confirmed its third coronavirus-related death on Sunday.
The patient was over 60 years old, and was being treated at North Manchester General Hospital, said a statement from Chief Medical Officer Chris Whitty.
He added that the patient had “significant underlying health conditions” and had recently traveled from an affected area.
 

betrayal

Banned
96 cases in SK this afternoon. So only 165 total for today. Again a decline.

165 March 9
248 March 8
367 March 7
483 March 6
518 March 5
438 March 4
516 March 3
600 March 2
476 March 1

US citizen can now safely travel to China or South Korea to avoid the virus. :messenger_alien_monster:
 
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96 cases in SK this afternoon. So only 165 total for today. Again a decline.

165 March 9
248 March 8
367 March 7
483 March 6
518 March 5
438 March 4
516 March 3
600 March 2
476 March 1

US citizen can now safely travel to China or South Korea to avoid the virus. :messenger_alien_monster:

South Korea 10AM report


South Korea 5PM report


Same day in South Korea 248 + 96 = 344 decline but your sources are way off. Your dates need to consider local South Korea timezone not our local time
 
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Whitecrow

Banned
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betrayal

Banned
South Korea 10AM report


South Korea 5PM report


Same day in South Korea 248 + 96 = 344 decline but your sources are way off. Your dates need to consider local South Korea timezone not our local time


Among other things, I use the source you have cited here about 100 times (BNO).

But I have seen where the problem is. https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ apparently uses different times or time zones in its calculation. Total there is the same you mention, but daily increase is +69 (without the afternoon update). But I like the page itself better, because it shows the daily summed number of cases for each country.

PS: Still a decline. https://en.yna.co.kr/view/AEN20200309003455320
People seem to forget that even a constant number of daily cases is a good sign for a virus with a R0 of currently 2 to 3. Math and stuff.
 
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Among other things, I use the source you have cited here about 100 times (BNO).

But I have seen where the problem is. https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ apparently uses different times or time zones in its calculation. Total there is the same you mention, but daily increase is +69 (without the afternoon update). But I like the page itself better, because it shows the daily summed number of cases for each country.

PS: Still a decline.

NOPE No excuses you have been all about facts and numbers so do your research. 7 hours between 2 reports in a single day in one timezon is not that hard.

A 165 totql decline and a 344 decline are vastly different things for a numbers guy. Don't blame the sources when you play the expert on here. The TimeZone is an easy mistake even I was confused but that is because I have to be up at 3AM my time for the second report. Just don't understand how you got to 165 even if I go back One report from the day before in SK which was 179 cases. SMH.

Don't misinform people to make your point.
 
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betrayal

Banned
NOPE No excuses you have been all about facts and numbers so do your research. 7 hours between 2 reports in a single day in one timezon is not that hard. A 165 totql decline and a 344 decline are vastly different thing for a numbers guy.

Don't misinform people to make your point.

It's okay to panic about the virus. It's your thing. I'll leave that to you. But talking bullshit when the numbers are still wrong even on official sites is another thing, especially when the mistake has been corrected and is understandable.
Stop assuming a bad turn of events behind every positive message. Your depressive behaviour has a destructive effect on others and maybe you should just go out, get some distance and realize that the earth is still spinning and will continue to do so for a very long time.

Seriously, telling something about lies because of some wrong numbers without any effect on the said result is bordering on stupidity.

Don't talk shit to make your (emotional) points.

PS: Because I can keep things apart, I still appreciate your effort here. So don't get me wrong. But some of your statements are exaggerated and ridiculous.

PPS: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ still working with the same numbers i've provided (165 new daily cases), with the same total number of cases of 7.478 which you have already mentioned.
 
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It's okay to panic about the virus. It's your thing. I'll leave that to you. But talking bullshit when the numbers are still wrong even on official sites is another thing, especially when the mistake has been corrected and is understandable.
Stop assuming a bad turn of events behind every positive message. Your depressive behaviour has a destructive effect on others and maybe you should just go out, get some distance and realize that the earth is still spinning and will continue to do so for a very long time.

Seriously, telling something about lies because of some wrong numbers without any effect on the said result is bordering on stupidity.

Don't talk shit to make your (emotional) points.

PS: Because I can keep things apart, I still appreciate your effort here. So don't get me wrong. But some of your statements are exaggerated and ridiculous.

PPS: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ still working with the same numbers i've provided (165 new daily cases), with the same total number of cases of 7.478.


No you don't get to Hide behind the word PANIC NO. You need ton own up to your shit. You dismiss numbers you even make shit up you got caught. You do not research so you can't be trusted with facts.

I'm not shitting on you, I am just disappointed in you. You are just playing a game with this.

You don't think your bullshit call of PANIC in here is as exaggerated as the worst of 'we are fucked' reactions in this thread?

If you stayed with the Science and Math and lay down your case without bullshit I would have respected your points but you lie, ignore facts, and want people to be blind to what the trends are. Like I said before you could have been more helpful in here.

I'm not listening to shit you post anymore numnbers people own up to errors you make excuses and say BUT BUT PANIC. Waaaah. You are a huge baby.
 
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betrayal

Banned
No you don't get to Hide behind the word PANIC NO. You need ton own up to your shit. You dismiss numbers you even make shit up you got caught. You do not research so you can't be trusted with facts.

I'm not shitting on you, I am just disappointed in you. You are just playing a game with this.

Are you having a stroke or psychosis? Seriously, what are you talking about?
 

betrayal

Banned
nods, you are a fool bro

Your number, 248, is by the way from Sunday and a sum of the daily cases of Sunday and Monday (179 yesterday afternoon, 69 this morning). Check your own sources. Even BNO, your primary source, is using the numbers i've mentioned. Now I have justified myself for something you were wrong about, but I'm not going to make a big deal out of it because I have to admit it's really confusing (especially the tweet you've posted).
 
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Your number, 248, is by the way from Sunday and a sum of the daily cases of Sunday and Monday (179 yesterday afternoon, 69 this morning). Check your own sources. Even BNO, your primary source, is using the numbers i've mentioned. Now I have justified myself for something you were wrong about, but I'm not going to make a big deal out of it because I have to admit it's really confusing (especially the tweet you've posted).

It is Monday 5:31AM here for me. A little check on google. Oh it is also Monday 6:33 PM. Oops I was Wrong

see how easy it was to say I was wrong I own my shit even at 5am.

Now
tell me how getting the wrong numbers give you 165? Since this 96 number was the second number of the day you are still going to have to add it to the last reported number. So even if I got the wrong day your math still don't match. Don't blame BNO I did not blame anyone when you pointed out my error.

248 + 96 = 344 for Monday March 9th in South Korea
367 + 179 = 546 for Sunday March 8th in South Korea

it might be that 179 and 367 are Sunday and Saturday instead of a single day. I would have to change the timezone on my Twitter app no my macbook to see which days those tweets fall on, you should do the same before you make fun of the tweets from a goverment owned media station. But even if I give you those as seperate days. I don't see 165 adding up.

all you had to say was yes a good decline and no I was wrong about the numbers but that ain't you, 'What do you Panic guys know'

edit: changing my timezone and home location to South Korea on my macbook the tweets for both reports 367 and 179 fall on the Same day Sunday March 8th so again not sure how we got 165 from the reported data.
 
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betrayal

Banned
It is Monday 5:31AM here for me. A little check on google. Oh it is also Monday 6:33 PM. Oops I was Wrong

see how easy it was to say I was wrong I own my shit even at 5am.

Now
tell me how getting the wrong numbers give you 165? Since this 96 number was the second number of the day you are still going to have to add it to the last reported number. So even if I got the wrong day your math still don't match. Don't blame BNO I did not blame anyone when you pointed out my error.

248 + 96 = 344 for Monday March 9th in South Korea
367 + 179 = 546 for Sunday March 8th in South Korea

it might be that 179 and 367 are Sunday and Saturday instead of a single day. I would have to change the timezone on my Twitter app no my macbook to see which days those tweets fall on, you should do the same before you make fun of the tweets from a goverment owned media station. But even if I give you those as seperate days. I don't see 165 adding up.

all you had to say was yes a good decline and no I was wrong about the numbers but that ain't you, 'What do you Panic guys know'

edit: changing my timezone and home location to South Korea on my macbook the tweets for both reports 367 and 179 fall on the Same day Sunday March 8th so again not sure how we got 165 from the reported data.


Check this:
The additional infections followed the 248 new cases detected on Sunday...

Source: https://en.yna.co.kr/view/AEN20200309003455320

I don't do much math either, but simply look at the familiar sites that do the math and prepare the data. All three sources use the numbers I posted. Even you use those sources. So don't pretend that I'm deliberately misposting numbers to embellish anything by using only official numbers from the sources that are used here all the time. If you go to these pages right now, you will see that they use exactly the numbers (165) I have posted.

 
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Hotspurr

Banned
All these numbers are the tip of the iceberg.
We already know a huge portion of people aren't tested.
Some kits were "not up to standard", eg. in the USA.
Many cases (actually most) are mild so they go unnoticed.

I'm not sure if anyone did the math, and if this virus is 20x worse than the flu across all ages, or it gets exponentially worse for older people. If it's more the latter then it's going to be ubiquitous just like the flu except take out more older people. The young folks will spread that shit like wildfire, especially through elementary schools and high schools, seeing as very young people are hardly affected.

I think this past weekend was the last one I'm willing to venture to heavily populated public places and have food prepared for me by others. The numbers are going up far too quickly and I don't see this being contained, especially not in the US where people will focus more on avoiding taking PTO rather than avoiding getting their co-workers sick (not their fault, US has a screwed up work culture).

Some general tips:
- disinfectant wipes for surfaces
- carry a small hand sanitizer in your pocket
- reduce visits to restaurants and other public places
- outdoor walks are a good substitute
- vitamin C
- eat and sleep well
- avoid small meeting rooms with colleagues
- avoid handshakes
- wash your hands and don't touch the face
- shave your beard (it can trap stuff in it)
- work from home if you can
- don't panic and buy mountains of toilet paper (wtf?)
- buy things at the grocery store in larger quantities to avoid additional trips
- tell your older relatives to stay at home, they are at greatest risk
- don't go to chuch/synagogue, god will be fine without your prayers (after all, if he works in mysterious ways, Coronavirus is partly his doing)
- educate your friends, relatives and co-workers as much as possible with regards to good practices
- in general keep calm, it's not a scary thing if you're under 50, but for older people it is quite serious so think more about not being a carrier and not jeopardizing their safety
- do not try to downplay this by making your own inferences with regards to numbers. The CDC and WHO are good sources, the president has proven to be a useless one.
- avoid travel as much as possible, and if you have colleagues who have traveled recently to affected areas (eg. Washington State), consider raising the issue with HR and seeing if they would be willing to quarantine for a while

Also remember there is a 2 week lag behind things. So take a look at where things were 2 weeks ago and extrapolate that to where things will be 2 weeks from now (in terms of presently affected people who simply don't know it yet). 2 weeks ago there were about 2.5K cases worldwide outside of China, that number is at 29.5K right now. I haven't properly fit the data but roughly speaking it seems the doubling time is about 4 days. This means about 5.6K cases in 2 weeks and about 90K cases a month from now in the US. Of course it all depends on how good the response is and if they take it seriously enough early enough (unlike China). I hope some population model comes out soon based on Italy and SK, and perhaps some other places, so we can properly asses, because the China data seems to be a big farce at this point.
 
Check this:


Source: https://en.yna.co.kr/view/AEN20200309003455320

I don't do much math either, but simply look at the familiar sites that do the math and prepare the data. All three sources use the numbers I posted. Even you use those sources. So don't pretend that I'm deliberately misposting numbers to embellish anything by using only official numbers from the sources that are used here all the time. If you go to these pages right now, you will see that they use exactly the numbers I have posted.


hello, that just depends on each sources timezone if they are not willing to do what I just did they will mistake Sunday numbers with Monday numberds just like you corrected me on just now.

I did not put the buck on the source I said I was wrong, I changed my timezone and looked at the shit myself.

Here is Sunday in South Korea

ezYuBnX.png


jCfYvfr.png


Like we found out together doing a little digging 248 and 96 are Monday numbers.
Also if they have to report 248 at 9-10 AM in the morning local time on Monday? Does it not make sense to you they had those resulting numbers on SUNDAY for the morning report on Monday? It creates a lot of room for a writer to play with times and dates. But the numbers had not changed. Again where is the 165?

we clear now?
 
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Okay thank you. I will grant you that you got screwed by your sources and you did not try to lowball your numbers.

I don't know where they got that 65 from but BNO does a lot of number deleting and editing because they listen to people who tweet at them and have to go back to fix them. I never use the number feed with the time stamps for that reason. They reported my state Connecticut had 1 case but they had to remove it because that person works in CT but lives in New York. That 69 had to be deleted if BNO and official SK numbers still add up as of the 96 cases update

Both, Official South Korea totals and BNO totals for South Korea match up at 7,478
so whereever that 69 came from they corrected it, and that other site is clearly using BNO timeline as updates lol so the error spreads.
 
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