Support NeoGAF

[Deleted member 17706]

If you read some news from South Korea and China, there are some unverified reports stated Abe's government was seriously downplayed the numbers and did not want to cause panic to affect Tokyo Olympics. For example, Japan government did not test as many Japaneses citizens from Wuhan and released them back home without any testing. Softback's boss offered 1 million free test kits to public and was accused of"causing public's panic" by the right-wingers and nationalists. He forced to apologize and declined the offer. SK and China does have a good relationship with JP so takes their news with a grains of salt.

Obviously Abe is trying to do whatever he can to make it look like business as usual in Japan ahead of the Olympics, but it's hard to hide deaths.

 

[cryptoadam]

Some good news

Macau’s last Covid-19 patient recovers, with no new cases for a month

Casino hub has only recorded 10 infections so far, with health chief praising his bureau’s frontline efforts. Hong Kong has 107 cases and two related deaths.

www.scmp.com

The last coronavirus patient in Macau to recover was discharged from hospital on Friday, with the casino hub not recording a single new infection for over a month.

Health authorities in Macau announced that the newly discharged woman, 64, was sent to a public health centre for further isolation in the afternoon. Her release meant all 10 Covid-19 cases in the city had recovered.

 

[cryptoadam]

Once this is all over, do you think China will be held accountable? Or face international punishment for their initial covering up of the virus?

I imagine not. But someone at least has to bollock them at some point.

The CCP should be tried for War Crimes over COVID-19

US government should be tried for failure to do what is necessary to help contain an epidemic. A single Chinese businessman has done more for the american people than the entire US regime; Chinese businessman Jack Ma is donating 500 000 COVID-19 test kits and 1 million masks to the U.S.A.

www.neogaf.com

 

[#Phonepunk#]

lol my instagram is full of people complaining about restaurants being full of people this weekend

... and yet how would they know, if they weren't going to those restaurants themselves?

 

[off duty ninja]

lol my instagram is full of people complaining about restaurants being full of people this weekend

... and yet how would they know, if they weren't going to those restaurants themselves?

I swear I heard some asshole mumble something shitty about everybody at the store being dumb for panic buying and making his experience worse while my wife and I were getting groceries. Guess what asshole, you're here too! Some people are just so stupid.

 

[eot]

Obviously Abe is trying to do whatever he can to make it look like business as usual in Japan ahead of the Olympics, but it's hard to hide deaths.

They can't hide the deaths themselves, but they don't need to write COVID-19 on the death certificate

 

[deafmedal]

lol my instagram is full of people complaining about restaurants being full of people this weekend

... and yet how would they know, if they weren't going to those restaurants themselves?

Shit, I’m still eating out. Fuck it. I’m moving hotels tomorrow as long as the project isn’t postponed (and I go home where I won’t eat out) but plan to stock a bit more in the room JIC.

 

[cryptoadam]

Obviously Abe is trying to do whatever he can to make it look like business as usual in Japan ahead of the Olympics, but it's hard to hide deaths.

Ya they can hide cases but not deaths. And Japan isn't Iran or China, you can't do that shit there. IF there was some giant cover up someone would bust the government.

Sure they can limit testing, but then they should have people dropping dead. Look at Italy where supposdly its so bad people are dying in their homes, cant get into hospitals, morgues are over flowing etc.... If things were that bad it would be like that in Japan and there is no way they could hide that.

I bet in a year from now we are going to read a lot about some countries that did things right and others that completely fubard the situation.

 

[rykomatsu]

Obviously Abe is trying to do whatever he can to make it look like business as usual in Japan ahead of the Olympics, but it's hard to hide deaths.

If there's a huge spike in deaths, it's hard. But if deaths are within a statistical range for any given time of the year, it's not "difficult" to hide.

 

[Chairman Tickles]

Apple, Google ban unofficial coronavirus apps to combat misinformation

bu buh but muh chynah cenzorship!?!

Oh wait...

Where are all the green screen shills to tell us this is now necessary. They were bleating and squealing when Chinese social network and app providers did it.

 

[cryptoadam]

If there's a huge spike in deaths, it's hard. But if deaths are within a statistical range for any given time of the year, it's not "difficult" to hide.

Like I said in the other post, how come they aren't an Italy situation then? If they are hiding things then the hospitals should be over flowing, the dead should not be able to fit in the morgue etc....

We have not heard anything like that with Japan.

At this point with how serious the virus is I think it would be near impossible for a country to hide it from their people and the rest of the world. Even Iran which is probably lying is still putting up huge numbers. There is no way Japan is lying more than Iran.

 

[Captain Zyrain]

Good morning lovelies

 

[DunDunDunpachi]

Apple, Google ban unofficial coronavirus apps to combat misinformation

bu buh but muh chynah cenzorship!?!

Oh wait...

Where are all the green screen shills to tell us this is now necessary. They were bleating and squealing when Chinese social network and app providers did it.

Who?

 

[Teslerum]

Scary.

I don’t get this. If the coronavirus apparently isn’t bad for the non risk groups WTF are *survival of the fittest rules* implemented?

 

[IKSTUGA]

Finnish government just announced lockdown for a month. Crazy shit, we have less than 300 cases...

 

[Jooxed]

Looks like DC is starting to lock down nightclubs.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/dc-md-va/2020/03/15/coronavirus-dc-maryland-virginia-updates/

 

[Chairman Tickles]

Who?

You new to this thread bro?

I been here since it all began. Gather round children, let me tell you a story.

 

[betrayal]

I don’t get this. If the coronavirus apparently isn’t bad for the non risk groups WTF are *survival of the fittest rules* implemented?

It's quite simple. The ICU's are generally occupied almost exclusively by elderly patients. If younger patients come in occasionally, you will be given priority. A single younger patient is already enough.

 

[Deleted member 17706]

Apple, Google ban unofficial coronavirus apps to combat misinformation

bu buh but muh chynah cenzorship!?!

Oh wait...

Where are all the green screen shills to tell us this is now necessary. They were bleating and squealing when Chinese social network and app providers did it.

No idea what you're talking about in that last paragraph, but Apple and Google ban all sorts of bogus apps and have since the inception of their respective app stores. They are well within their rights to control what is allowed to be sold in their stores.

 

[Cybrwzrd]

Finnish government just announced lockdown for a month. Crazy shit, we have less than 300 cases...

That's 50 cases per million residents though. That is when things start going exponential.

 

[Captain Zyrain]

We China now?

 

[Chairman Tickles]

No idea what you're talking about in that last paragraph, but Apple and Google ban all sorts of bogus apps and have since the inception of their respective app stores. They are well within their rights to control what is allowed to be sold in their stores.

Yes, let's just skirt around the hypocrisy like it never happened.

We China now?

Never gonna happen.

 

[Deleted member 17706]

They can't hide the deaths themselves, but they don't need to write COVID-19 on the death certificate

I'm not buying that the government somehow got all the doctors in the country to lie for the Abe's political benefit.

Yes, let's just skirt around the hypocrisy like it never happened.

Point out specific things that you're talking about. I seriously have no idea. What "censorship" were people complaining about? Is it an apples to apples comparison?

 

[DunDunDunpachi]

You new to this thread bro?

I been here since it all began. Gather round children, let me tell you a story.

Okay but your non-answer still doesn't help me identify what "green screen shills" contradicted themselves.

Also I've been on the thread since page one.

You might want to tone down the accusations of "shill" by the way, we can all read your posting history, comrade.

 

[Captain Zyrain]

 

[Fun Fanboy]

Some hearsay for you all, but a lady at my work just told me her brother works for the government here in CA. Said to expect an announcement at some point for a 3 week lockdown.

Hmmmmm I wonder.

 

[rykomatsu]

Like I said in the other post, how come they aren't an Italy situation then? If they are hiding things then the hospitals should be over flowing, the dead should not be able to fit in the morgue etc....

We have not heard anything like that with Japan.

At this point with how serious the virus is I think it would be near impossible for a country to hide it from their people and the rest of the world. Even Iran which is probably lying is still putting up huge numbers. There is no way Japan is lying more than Iran.

I'm not making a statement on whether there is or is not hiding going on. All I'm saying is, if statistically the death rate has not gone above seasonal norms, it's not difficult to re-label cause of death as say..."bacterial pneumonia".

Let's take a hypothetical:
2010 - 100 deaths
2011 - 107 deaths
2012 - 98 deaths
2013 - 92 deaths
2014 - 103 deaths
2015 - 97 deaths
2016 - 112 deaths
2017 - 103 deaths
2018 - 94 deaths
2019 - 106 deaths

Average: 101 +/- 6 deaths / year
But, based on this data and a 99% confidence interval (3x stdev), you can expect an upwards of 101 +/- 18 deaths/year

So let's say in 2020, we see 116 deaths, this might seem high (and does exceed the observation of 112), this is still within what is expected.

Why the death case isn't spiking alarmingly? I have no idea and this isn't intended to address that specific question. If I were to speculate, healthcare not being flooded

• The criteria to be tested is apparently very high (heard this on a news radio stream)
  • Fever needs to persist for 4 days
  • Other tests need to be carried out first prior to Corona
  • Once all tests come back negative, then Corona test is carried out

This probably means a lot of carriers have mild symptoms and this goes away, people with severe symptoms can actually be treated without overwhelming the system, and only a small population really becomes critical when healthcare is not on the brink of collapse?

Edit: Obviously this is an overly simplistic view but...
Let's say of 116, 97 deaths were from "normal" cases and you see 19 cases of "corona", one wouldn't easily see a difference at least with a superficial glance. It's more involved than this, and really depends on how things are ultimately categorized, but someone removed from the nitty gritty likely looks at this type of high level data rather than the specific statistics of how these data are generated.

 

[Captain Zyrain]

Oh shi

 

[cryptoadam]

A little bit more good news

Israeli Nobel Laureate: Coronavirus spread is slowing

Michael Levitt praised Israel for its preventative measures. He said most people are naturally immune, and that since the infection rate in China is slowing down, "the end of the pandemic is near."

www.jpost.com

Michael Levitt, an American-British-Israeli biophysicist who won the 2013 Nobel prize for chemistry for "the development of multiscale models for complex chemical systems," has become something of a household name in China over the last few months. Although his specialty is not in epidemiology, he accurately forecast the slowing down of the spread of the virus in February, giving hope to those affected by the lockdown.

But far from being a modern-day prophet, he explained in an interview with Calcalist that he simply crunched the numbers.

Levitt's wife, Shoshan Brosh, is a researcher of Chinese art, meaning that the couple regularly travels between America, Israel and China. Consequently, when the virus broke out in Hubei province, Levitt wrote to his Chinese friends in support.

“When they answered us, describing how complicated their situation was, I decided to take a deeper look at the numbers in the hope of reaching some conclusion,” Levitt explained. “The rate of infection of the virus in the Hubei province increased by 30% each day — that is a scary statistic. I am not an influenza expert but I can analyze numbers and that is exponential growth.”

Had the growth continued at that rate, the whole world would have become infected within 90 days. But as Levitt continued to process the numbers, the pattern changed. On February 1, when he first looked at the statistics, Hubei Province had 1,800 new cases a day. By February 6, that number had reached 4,700 new cases a day.

But on February 7, something changed. “The number of new infections started to drop linearly and did not stop," Levitt said. "A week later, the same happened with the number of the deaths. This dramatic change in the curve marked the median point and enabled better prediction of when the pandemic will end. Based on that, I concluded that the situation in all of China will improve within two weeks. And, indeed, now there are very few new infection cases.”

He doesn't say its over yet

However, that doesn't mean Levitt is dismissive of the precautions being put in place by governments around the world.

“You don’t hug every person you meet on the street now, and you’ll avoid meeting face to face with someone that has a cold, like we did,” Levitt said. “The more you adhere, the more you can keep infection in check. So, under these circumstances, a carrier will only infect 1.5 people every three days and the rate will keep going down.”

Isolation and limiting social contact is not the only factor at play, however. In Wuhan, where the virus first emerged, the whole population theoretically was at risk of becoming infected, but only 3% were.

With the Macau news, Australia maybe having a cure, and this maybe the world isn't ending. Still troubled waters ahead as more countries start hitting their peaks but we can get through this.

 

[Skyr]

I feel like rewatching "28 Days later" tonight.

 

[DunDunDunpachi]

I feel like rewatching "28 Days later" tonight.

28 Weeks seems more appropriate, since the whole premise is an outbreak caused by an idiot breaking quarantine.

 

[ThatStupidLion]

I feel like rewatching "28 Days later" tonight.

just watched it on saturday...worse than I remember. i think i like 28 weeks later more.

 

[cryptoadam]

I'm not making a statement on whether there is or is not hiding going on. All I'm saying is, if statistically the death rate has not gone above seasonal norms, it's not difficult to re-label cause of death as say..."bacterial pneumonia".

Let's take a hypothetical:
2010 - 100 deaths
2011 - 107 deaths
2012 - 98 deaths
2013 - 92 deaths
2014 - 103 deaths
2015 - 97 deaths
2016 - 112 deaths
2017 - 103 deaths
2018 - 94 deaths
2019 - 106 deaths

Average: 101 +/- 6 deaths / year
But, based on this data and a 99% confidence interval (3x stdev), you can expect an upwards of 101 +/- 18 deaths/year

So let's say in 2020, we see 116 deaths, this might seem high (and does exceed the observation of 112), this is still within what is expected.

Why the death case isn't spiking alarmingly? I have no idea and this isn't intended to address that specific question. If I were to speculate, healthcare not being flooded

• The criteria to be tested is apparently very high (heard this on a news radio stream)
  • Fever needs to persist for 4 days
  • Other tests need to be carried out first prior to Corona
  • Once all tests come back negative, then Corona test is carried out

This probably means a lot of carriers have mild symptoms and this goes away, people with severe symptoms can actually be treated without overwhelming the system, and only a small population really becomes critical when healthcare is not on the brink of collapse?

I think either way if Japan is lying or not then they are doing a good job not having their country descend into madness like Italy is.

Maybe they can fudge the numbers for the Olympics, but they can't hide panic from social media, they aren't Iran/China/NK.

So whatever they are doing its working. Either people are recovering and not overwhelming the hospital, numbers are low or whatever. But its a lot better than the shit show in Italy and what soon may be Spain and France. Japan seems to have effectively flattened the curve as they say SO FAR.

 

[Captain Zyrain]

Finnish

 

[Smiles and Cries]

at 175k cases

Coronavirus Update (Live): 131,897,800 Cases and 2,865,517 Deaths from COVID-19 Virus Pandemic - Worldometer

Live statistics and coronavirus news tracking the number of confirmed cases, recovered patients, tests, and death toll due to the COVID-19 coronavirus from Wuhan, China. Coronavirus counter with new cases, deaths, and number of tests per 1 Million population. Historical data and info. Daily...

www.worldometers.info

 

[Airbus Jr]

Olga Kurylenko (007 Bondgirl) is Coronavirus positive

 

[Captain Zyrain]

 

[cryptoadam]

so if Tom Hanks and that baskeball guy recover from this do you think that will raise peoples spirits? If high profile people recover I can see that giving a lot of hope.

Now god forbid if they don't that will probably cause a lot more panic in people.

Hoping they are ok (and not so people don't panic, I don't want them to die)

 

[Smiles and Cries]

so if Tom Hanks and that baskeball guy recover from this do you think that will raise peoples spirits? If high profile people recover I can see that giving a lot of hope.

Now god forbid if they don't that will probably cause a lot more panic in people.

Hoping they are ok (and not so people don't panic, I don't want them to die)

They will recover. Getting the best care availalble so yeah I would think it would cause a lot of panic if someone getting the best care still dies.

 

[Smiles and Cries]

so full report out in like 10 minutes?

seems down I think which is good

 

[Captain Zyrain]

so full report out in like 10 minutes?

seems down I think which is good

Yeah should be down, yesterday was crazy. Unless other areas are ramping up.

Deaths I don't know if they'll be a steady increase or decrease as not everyone dies at the same rate.

NY:

 

[Bitmap Frogs]

This last week was and this week is going to be fun working in a hypermarket........
I'm changing look

GET READY DEAR CUSTOMERS !!!!!

SHOP SMART SHOP S-MART

 

[Smiles and Cries]

I am more curious about French numbers today.

 

[Captain Zyrain]

Malaysia closing borders

Malaysia closes borders, schools and businesses as virus tally climbs

Malaysia will shut its borders to travellers, restrict internal movement, close schools and universities and order most businesses to shut after its number of coronavirus cases climbed on Monday to the highest in Southeast Asia.

www.reuters.com

 

[Kacho]

Can someone explain the fuss over testing kits? Can't tell if it's a legit concern or just more political nonsense.

 

[Croatoan]

I frequent another forum which has a dedicated COVID-19 section. This forum has lots of professionals from various diciplines, including doctors. One doctor started a thread that got stickied in which he is basically doing questions and answers (he does the same stuff on facebook). This is non-sensationalized data and details from a frontline doctor in the United States. I will post his updates as he adds them.

Here was his first post last week.

As a long time user of texags, more than 20 years I feel obligated to give users an accurate update on where we stand with the Coronavirus.

For background purposes, I graduated from Texas A&M in 1991. I graduated cum laude in medical school in 1997, was chief resident at t.u. Southwestern in 1999. I know sucks having a t.u. diploma but I hang it upside down.

Since then I have been in private practice for over 20 years. I have been elected secretary, vice president and president of Texas Osteopathic Medical Association district 5. Also elected to the physician board of multiple independent physician associations. Elected Best in Medicine in 2019. For texags forum critics (football related as I have name in Kyle Field as Eppright donor) lol

Lots of misinformation out there now and it's important to be getting your information from someone directly in the medical community and not just media.

Here is a link my professional Facebook page where I am updating my patients on the most current information. This update is from Information as current as last night. I also have an update from last on that site that is helpful too.

Here is the first facebook post.

Coronavirus COVID-19

Lots of patients with questions about Coronavirus. First off this virus has been around decades it is a common cause of the common cold. However, the COVID-19 is a novel version meaning it has mutated and is a new version of the virus. So it essentially like a new disease with no available vaccine. Therefore, information will be changing as we learn more about it.

Is it dangerous?

Yes, the virus has a mortality rate currently of around 2-3% but the denominator is likely to be a much larger number then know for multiple reasons. First off, the tests we have for standard coronavirus do not detect the novel COVID-19. Thus, it is much harder to detect this virus. New tests are being developed which will be more available and faster but this will likely take months to years to develop. Secondly, over 80% of the infected people have mild symptoms and are not as likely to seek care or be tested. Finally, the disease has an incubation period of 2 -10 days so people spread the disease without knowing they are sick.

Based on these facts the number of people infected is likely much larger then we know. While this sounds bad, it is actually not since this will mean the actual mortality rate (death rate) is lower then what we currently know. As we become better at detecting it and aggressively treating the infected this number will likely decrease to around that of influenza at less than 1%.

Is this virus more dangerous than the FLU?

While it currently has a higher mortality rate than influenza it is not likely to be near as dangerous as influenza. As we discussed earlier the mortality rate is likely to decrease and it does not appear to be nearly as contagious as the Influenza. So thus there is likely to be less total deaths.

To put this in perspective as of early March, the coronavirus outbreak had infected more than 90,000 people and killed more than 3,000 people globally, the most of whom live in China, where the illness originated in December. More than 100 people in the United States have been diagnosed, including at least ten people who have died.

By comparison, influenza — known as the common flu — has infected over 45 million Americans since October 2019 and killed as many as 46,000, according to estimates from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Globally influenza kills an average of 500,000 per year so the odds of Coronavirus equaling that are small.

How does it kill people?

This virus causes fatalities similar to influenza so it makes since the mortality rates will likely be similar. It usually kills by either causing pneumonia or kidney failure. Pneumonia fills your lungs with fluid and inhibits your ability to breath. So trouble breathing or decreasing oxygen levels are worrisome signs of a serious infection. The other way it kills is through dehydration. As you get ill you have fevers and are sweating off liquids. Typically, you have to drink 2-3 times the normal amount of fluids to stay hydrated. Since you feel bad you have a tendency to not consume liquids and thus dehydration sets in. This causes the kidney’s to fail and other organ symptoms soon fallow.

How does it spread?

It spreads with close contact less than 6 feet from an infected individual. An infected individual coughs or sneezes and the virus is excreted into the air. By breathing in these respiratory droplets you can become infected. It can also live on surfaces for days. So use disinfectants to clean surfaces.

How do I protect myself?

The most important way to stay healthy is to practice good hygiene. Wash your hands frequently and particularly before you eat anything. Do not touch your mouth, nose, eyes or face as it contaminate you. Wash your hands for 20 seconds after going to bathroom. Finally, stay away from sick people. FYI wearing a mask will not protect you from getting ill as air with respiratory droplets comes in around the sides of mask.

What if I get sick?

Of course see your physician as soon as possible. Do not panic remember most people will only have mild to moderate symptoms. Follow your doctors instructions, rest, stay away from other uninfected people and drink lots of liquids preferably Gatorade since it contains electrolytes. When caregivers come to take care you now you should wear a mask to prevent them from getting ill. If you have trouble breathing or do not urinate every 6 hours then you should seek medical care.

Here is his most recent update.

Coronavirus Update 3-16-2020

What should I expect in the next couple of weeks?

As testing gradually starts to increase we see the mortality rate decreasing as we predicted. The mortality rate is now down to 1,8% today was 2.0% Saturday from 2.3% Friday. World wide the mortality rate is at 3.8% but that is likely high because other countries like us are having trouble getting people tested. South Korea has actually been the best at getting people tested and their mortality rate has dropped to 0.91%. Over the next week we should have the total number of cases increase at a high rate but mortality should decrease even more and eventually likely drop under 1%. As the mortality risk decreases so will the fear the public has for the virus.

Is there any good news?

There is actually a lot of good news. First is the news above, the mortality rate continues to decrease here in the United States as more people are diagnosed. Secondly, the FDA approval of the Roche test for COVID-19 will allow significantly more people to get diagnosed and at a much faster rate. Also having drive through testing centers will help get more people diagnosed without putting health care workers at risk. Finally, with South Korea doing so much testing we are seeing their mortality rate decrease to under 1% and I expect when testing is expanded here are mortality rate will likely mirror theirs.

Should I get tested?

Soon you should be able to take a short questionnaire online and it will tell you if you should be tested. If it says yes do not go to your doctor’s office and risk infecting others rather look online as there will be drive through testing centers where you can go to get tested. You then go home and isolate yourself until you get your results. Be patient more tests are on the way. Remember if you test positive unless you are very ill you will just be confined to your house so no rush to be tested we just need the information. It takes time to produce tens of thousands of test but they are coming all over soon we are told by just about every medical agency.

What can I do to help?

First practice social distancing to reduce your chance of contracting the virus. If you stay uninfected you can not infect others. Secondly, many clinics are running out of hand sanitizer, Lysol, disinfectants and antibacterial soap. If you have any extra, call your physician's office and see if they need any. While my clinic is ok not all of them are. The hoarders have completely depleted the supply and some offices are running low on essentials such as hand sanitizer and disinfectants.

Feel free to copy and share

Here is the forum thread where he answers A LOT of questions from people. There are other doctors and scientists in that thread as well helping to answer questions people have.

Covid-19 Update Aggie Physician | TexAgs

Covid-19 Update Aggie Physician discussion on the TexAgs Coronavirus/COVID-19 News & Information forum.

texags.com

I warn those here that the people that use this forum are generally older than those on GAF and it is moderated heavily. Most of them think this whole thing is bullshit.

edit: I will try and post some of the relevant questions if people want me to. I also fixed the thread link.

 

[Smiles and Cries]

Can someone explain the fuss over testing kits? Can't tell if it's a legit concern or just more political nonsense.

Testing is very important and most places took a long time to start testing, some like Japan avoid testing. In the US the fuss is more or less they only try to use a few selected labs and companies to create the kits, even after they are created, to test they need the protective gear which they did not have enough of. This is the US, it all adds up to slow testing down causing them to only test the most sick.

 

[Smiles and Cries]

World Health Organization ships about 1.5 million tests to 120 countries

World Health Organization ships about 1.5 million tests to 120 countries

The World Health Organization has shipped almost 1.5 million novel coronavirus tests to 120 countries, WHO Director-General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus said during a news briefing on Monday.

www.cnn.com

Rhode Island bans gatherings of more than 25 people

Rhode Island bans gatherings of more than 25 people

All public gatherings will be restricted to 25 or less people in Rhode Island, Gov. Gina Raimondo announced Monday. The ban applied to municipal buildings, such as the Department of Motor Vehicles.

www.cnn.com

 

[rofif]

We China now?

Better build a wall to isolate the sick

 

[Captain Zyrain]