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May 7th | UK General Election 2015 OT - Please go vote!
- Thread starter Volotaire
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SNP aren't interested in the UK, they themselves want to split it up. As much as I liked Sturgeon on the debate, I can't vote for her.Scotland has you covered
Plus it's not like there aren't any number of saner protest votes for parties in England that have *actual* policies.
Sure you can. Break up this shitty UK and you can have better government and we English can have the electoral system reform such upheaval will demand. Win win.
Yeah began to wonder if it was the Scotland Office after reading Campbell's blog on it being a memo intended when made to be leaked.
If I was Sturgeon I'd spin this to get rid of the Scotland Office and have a Holyrood funded lobyist Office take its place. Its an out dated institution.
What are the Lib Dems playing at? Push for a Labour/Dem coalition in order to the recover in Scotland in 5 years time. Labours reaction and some parts of the media remind me of the 'NHS leak' in the referendum where they misread cost increases for secret cuts, pushes it for a day then dropped it.
Too many buy SNPs goading that Labour is struggling for standing with the Tories, people care more about how they held themselves and truth is most people beganbto see through this story immediately - why couldn't the Telegraph or Jim Murphy?
If I was Sturgeon I'd spin this to get rid of the Scotland Office and have a Holyrood funded lobyist Office take its place. Its an out dated institution.
What are the Lib Dems playing at? Push for a Labour/Dem coalition in order to the recover in Scotland in 5 years time. Labours reaction and some parts of the media remind me of the 'NHS leak' in the referendum where they misread cost increases for secret cuts, pushes it for a day then dropped it.
Too many buy SNPs goading that Labour is struggling for standing with the Tories, people care more about how they held themselves and truth is most people beganbto see through this story immediately - why couldn't the Telegraph or Jim Murphy?
I assume the reason he can't vote for her is the same reason ~90% of the country can't vote for her.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-32180744
More frighteningly dense stuff from the Tories, scare-mongering so they can finally get the regulated internet they so want while acting as though they are saving "victims".
More frighteningly dense stuff from the Tories, scare-mongering so they can finally get the regulated internet they so want while acting as though they are saving "victims".
Also, the 'study' it's based on looks like bollocks cooked up by one of those PR/Research agencies, rather than something done by a proper polling company or scientific study.
What they don't mention is that it was MPs that were pressuring them.
Still though, it is a problem that needs to be tackled but through education as opposed to censorship as the current government has a lot to hide.
Age checks are pointless without being backed by actual ID. So unless this comes with an ID card scheme it is not going to be effective.
That is true as well.
Plus, do we really want to be promoting giving credit card information to these websites?
zomgbbqftw
Banned
Only in a sense that they oppose Labour. Otherwise the SNP are very different to the Tories. Your mate must be a SLAB member or supporter because only they call the SNP Tartan Tories. On a very basic level the SNP want to increase government spending by 1% per year over the next spending period compared to the Tories who are looking at 1% savings per year so I don't see them as anything like each other.
No. That was a hilariously shitty facade created by Labour in 1979.
The SNP are a centre left party, arguably the only mainstream one left. Following 2006 they've shown themselves to be competent in government and are increasingly eating away at labour votes as that party moves further to the right.
War Peaceman
You're a big guy.
They are more New Labour than tory.
Basically, they are a competent political party with a general unifying theme (independence) who have continued to demonstrate common sense and skill as administrators. Generally Left of Westminster, but not in a particularly exaggerated fashion.
Salmond was incredibly talented and influential, but had a snake-oil salesman feel to him, which was increasingly ill-fitting as SNP moved from plucky outsider to established power. Sturgeon is an improvement in that regard.
Chemical Rampancy
Banned
They're ideologically most similar to Labour.
That's pretty obviously the plan.
Sturgeon's main talent is she's learned to stay on message without sounding like she's repeating the same line over and over again. Blair had that talent, Boris has it (although he doesn't always stay on message). I'm not sure she's in that class as a retail politician. Cameron had the same ability in the early days but he's essentially sloganeering at this point.
Don't get me wrong she's intelligent and crafty (Glasgow politics is a cesspool of competiting factions even when it was Labour dominated) and has had a long apprenticeship, but she's moved on the 'nippy sweetie' right hand enforcer/problem solver of Salmond to someone who articulates her point of view clearly and relatively concisely in a manner which doesn't involve sounding like slogan robot.
Sturgeon is not even a candidate in this election, so nobody can vote for her expecting her represent anyone in Westminster. You cant really trust what she says in the GE when she only sees MPs as temporary leaverage for her party's single objective.
Which is why I believe, whether it was said or not, the SNP would prefer a Tory victory as it would bring them closer to their goal of independence.
D
Deleted member 231381
Unconfirmed Member
This is quite interesting: house effects for the various pollsters. Opinium is actually the 'most average' pollster.
Hopefully those Ukip percentages are spread thin enough to not equal seats, else it'll mean a con/Ukip coalition. The second worse outcome possible.
gutter_trash
Banned
SNP voters are voter splitters and allowing Cameron to win.
I don't care about ideologies, when you vote for are regional interest parry, you allow the major opposite force that is the most strength to win
That's all I gotta say from a Canadian point of view who thinks that the Bloc to be useless, and the Bloc has proven to be utter uselessness since its creation.
I don't care about ideologies, when you vote for are regional interest parry, you allow the major opposite force that is the most strength to win
That's all I gotta say from a Canadian point of view who thinks that the Bloc to be useless, and the Bloc has proven to be utter uselessness since its creation.
D
Deleted member 231381
Unconfirmed Member
At 14% with the best distribution it is reasonable for UKIP to expect, they'd win 3 seats - Rochester and Strood, Thurrock, and Clackton. UKIP need to hit about 18% of the vote nationally with fairly optimal distribution to be relevant for coalitions. If they did hit that point, the Conservatives would be doing so badly a coalition wouldn't happen anyway, though.
JonathanEx
Member
Leak inquiry suggests the Telegraph's memo exists. Not that really was in doubt - but it's a what, third/fourth hand record of a conversation, so frankly rather shoddy to be so sure journalistically it is her views.
In other news - in a wonderful tribute to our thread title, George Galloway has decided to have a spat with a brewery who slightly mocked him online. http://www.buzzfeed.com/jimwaterson/somethings-brewing-in-bradford
In other news - in a wonderful tribute to our thread title, George Galloway has decided to have a spat with a brewery who slightly mocked him online. http://www.buzzfeed.com/jimwaterson/somethings-brewing-in-bradford
zomgbbqftw
Banned
No, they are voting for the only party that supports Scottish independence. After the referendum there is no going back for a lot of people. Labour are enemy for a lot of these guys (most).
Caroline Lucas reveals 10 things no one tells you before you first enter Parliament
ITV News running the Telegraph story as gospel - focusing on the reaction of Miliband and Cameron.
ITV News running the Telegraph story as gospel - focusing on the reaction of Miliband and Cameron.
Yes but voting for the SNP and letting the Conservatives form the next government would give those very Scottish voters a much greater chance of independence - at which point any Westminster government is without purpose. If backed into a corner, the Torys would give up Scotland which hold no strategic value for the party.
Scottish independence will never happen under a labour government. A labour (and presumably SNP coalition partner) government would collapse and labour would be too weak without Scotland to be reelected. Another 5 years of tory austerity is probably enough to whip up Scottish tensions for them to achieve their primary objective of independence.
She would never say it to the electorate, but it's what the SNP are thinking, i'm sure if it. Thats why the leaked memo makes perfect sense.
This is quite interesting: house effects for the various pollsters. Opinium is actually the 'most average' pollster.
I fully expect tonights YouGov poll to have the Tories on 38%. The usual suspects from the Tory side are all crowing about it being 'interesting'. But from that graph it shouldn't be too surprising.
zomgbbqftw
Banned
I would be very surprised if YouGov show a Tory lead tonight. I think it is going to show big movement from Tory > UKIP and Green > Lab. I'm expecting a Labour lead of around 3 points, Lab 36, Con 33.
Edit: Nadine Dorries has written to multiple newspapers today. Could be a defection on the cards. I think it is going to be a bad night for the Cons.
D
Deleted member 231381
Unconfirmed Member
I would be shocked if it was 38%. If we say the 'true' figure is what the average of all the pollsters are showing (big assumption, but stick with it), then a YouGOV of 38% implies that other pollsters would be showing about 36%. That's a far way out of line with anything else we've seen. I'm fairly sure that the 37% from YouGOV itself was way out on the edge of the margin of error.
I have to admit, I get more and more suspicious of YouGOV the closer the election gets. The scores it records for both the Conservatives and Labour just seem too high, given the overwhelming trend for decades now has been less and less support for the two main parties. For them to be recording a combined 72% is reversing things by about two decades. It would also be near unprecedented for a party of government to get more votes than it came in on. That's not happened once in the post-war era. Now, obviously trends and trends and don't dictate things entirely, but for two such strong ones to be contravened by such a margin (combined big parties 72%, over 7% increase on the last election, and Conservatives on 37%, a 2% increase on the last election), looks very strange.
Ravensmash
Member
She's my Mp...or was rather.
D
Deleted member 231381
Unconfirmed Member
If I was Nadine Dorries and going to defect, I'd do it after the last debate for maximal impact. Now seems a very odd time.
JonathanEx
Member
D
Deleted member 231381
Unconfirmed Member
If that is true, there will not be a Conservative government after this election. It just isn't possible. The turn around necessary for a majority would be unprecedented at this point in history I am almost certain Farage is exaggerating. I struggle to believe that even the rowdiest Conservative backbenchers wouldn't prefer some office to none.
The last day for official nominations is some time next week. So UKIP will need to have a meeting to choose her as their candidate so this weekend is really as long as she can leave it if she wants to stay an MP
JonathanEx
Member
However Farage's own chances of getting in can be questioned, the Mail on Sunday going after them for covering up a poll showing their numbers were down a bit:
If things aren't looking good for Ukip, hard to see how some would want to go through with it... Though, defections have been Ukip's best source of MPs so far...
If things aren't looking good for Ukip, hard to see how some would want to go through with it... Though, defections have been Ukip's best source of MPs so far...
zomgbbqftw
Banned
Decent rebound for the Lib Dems. Could be the start of a small recovery for them. All MOE movements but it could be something to watch.
D
Deleted member 231381
Unconfirmed Member
+3 is actually outside the margin of error, which gets smaller as the amount of something expected inside the population does. Lib Dem MoE is about 1.58% if they were truly at 7%.
The SNP (particularly with them set to take most of the Scottish seats) are exactly why we need an English only parliament so that only MPs in English seats can vote on matters pertaining specifically to England. It's absolutely ridiculous that England is the only country in the UK without this.
To be honest, the three parties that scare me most are the SNP, UKIP and the Greens. All of them would be an unmitigated disaster for the UK if they got any real power.
I voted Tory 5 years ago and will be very happily doing the same this year.
To be honest, the three parties that scare me most are the SNP, UKIP and the Greens. All of them would be an unmitigated disaster for the UK if they got any real power.
I voted Tory 5 years ago and will be very happily doing the same this year.
D
Deleted member 231381
Unconfirmed Member
There are effectively no matters that relate solely to England. Scotland and Wales do not determine their own funding, this is decided by the Barnett formula. The Barnett formula is set using the amount of funding passed in Westminster. Therefore, any bill that involves spending money in any capacity (e.g., most bills), is not a solely English bill, because whether it passes or not affects how much many Scotland and Wales do or do not get. This would need changing before you could do anything like separation of votes.
An English only parliament would almost certainly dominate the scene, and weaken any remaining British federal structures. Personally, I think the best option would be to copy the German federal system and split up an English only parliament into a number of smaller state/region/county parliaments.
Convincing the electorate that's the best way to go, however, would be quite a task.
Convincing the electorate that's the best way to go, however, would be quite a task.
The federalisation of the UK is something I'd like to see as well. We really need a system that can cope for the imbalances created when you have up to a fifth of your population living in London (depending on how vast an area you consider), not just across the UK but within England as well.
I'm thinking that the minority vote tends to collapse before the GE. UKIP votes will go Tory, SNP will go Labour.
Polls will change, but l think the outcome will be the same?
killer_clank
Member
I think there's a specific type of Labour voter in Scotland considering voting SNP (probably someone middle aged on who's voted labour all their life except they maybe voted yes at the referendum) that might sway back to Labour by polling day but everything I can see from my end here suggests their vote is just decimated in the under 50s.
I don't agree with that. I mean for the non-English parts of England (i.e. Cornwall) there's a case to be made for parliaments, but other than that I wouldn't want to see *regional* bodies.
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