If you actually look at the tables for YouGov, the Tory lead is actually 0.066%, literally one more respondent than Labour (525 v 524) it's just the way it splits which gives them a rounding 'win'.
-
Hey, guest user. Hope you're enjoying NeoGAF! Have you considered registering for an account? Come join us and add your take to the daily discourse.
May 7th | UK General Election 2015 OT - Please go vote!
- Thread starter Volotaire
- Start date
- Status
If you actually look at the tables for YouGov, the Tory lead is actually 0.066%, literally one more respondent than Labour (525 v 524) it's just the way it splits which gives them a rounding 'win'.
Principate
Saint Titanfall
Haha, can't remember the last time a politician provided so much entertainment (actually I do sadly it was Bush), first the photo's thread now this.
The tories are now trying to hit back with the #cameronettes .Yeah....
QuicheFontaine
Member
I like these graphics from Elections Etc. They sum up the various possibilities (even if the percentage likelihoods may not be correct).
Their latest article discusses how the Lib Dems could go either way, depending on where the chips fall in two weeks time.
Edit:
Tea came out of my nose
Their latest article discusses how the Lib Dems could go either way, depending on where the chips fall in two weeks time.
Edit:
Tea came out of my nose
D
Deleted member 231381
Unconfirmed Member
As we get closer to the election, all the models are starting to converge. Getting exciting!
Jezbollah
Member
I like these graphics from Elections Etc. They sum up the various possibilities (even if the percentage likelihoods may not be correct).
So on that projection:
Conservatives + Lib Dems = 312
Labour + SNP = 314
oO
QuicheFontaine
Member
If this actually happened the aftermath would be magnificent.
Seriously considering asking my work if I can take a half day on the Friday morning. I need to see these results come in live.
FlammableD
Banned
I'm waiting to get work approval for my day off: I've got tickets to the HIGNFY Election show that morning.
Jezbollah
Member
Yeah I'm "working from home" - but I doubt it as I'll be up all night watching the results.
Sweet!
QuicheFontaine
Member
Nice
Hope you get it. It would be harsh not to give it you since you got the tickets already (I'm presuming they're allocated in some sort of lottery).
The time seems so right for a new Armistice.
FlammableD
Banned
They are yeah, they also overbook to ensure a full audience, so got to get down early!
Oh, also: Channel 4 to shut E4 on day of general election to encourage youth vote
industrian
will gently cradle you as time slowly ticks away.
ACTIVATE THE QUEEN!
Pfft, that's nothing, the BBC are shutting down BBC 3 forever.
QuicheFontaine
Member
Does that result in infinite youth vote?
Miles Quaritch
Member
D
Deleted member 231381
Unconfirmed Member
The amount of haggling for DUP support in that situation would be amazing. Watching Northern Ireland suddenly become, not only relevant, but the most important country in the United Kingdom for the first time in ever, would be incredible.
Principate
Saint Titanfall
Perhaps if you divided the number of people voting by the number of youths that actually watched BBC3.
I for one welcome our new Green Party overlords.
In all seriousness, I scoffed at that idea when I first saw the headline but it's a pretty good scheme, really, E4's daytime schedule would be little more than repeats and increasing voter turnout is always a concept I can get behind, especially amongst the young. Now, whether it will be effective or they'll just turn over to ITV2, that's another matter entirely.
Came across this Cameron joke at Alex Salmond on Twitter, not the easiest to hear mind
https://twitter.com/greengoestweet/status/590828457518563328
Got a chuckle from me.
https://twitter.com/greengoestweet/status/590828457518563328
Got a chuckle from me.
Tories could add DUP's 8 and potential UKIP's 3, that gets them agonisingly close gets to 321
Labour + SNP + Plaid (+3) + SDLP (+3) + Gorgeous George (+1) also gets to 321. Essentially the Lib Dems could bend Labour over the barrel to run a minority with implicit SNP + Plaid + SDLP support (none of whom would vote down a Labour Queen's speech) although the Lib Dems would want to deal with the largest party and have said they won't deal with separatists but then they've also said they won't deal with UKIP or the DUP, I don't see the DUP going down the Labour route due to the association with separatists.
Or it would be another election after about a month of fucking about.
The other models have it much more even in seats than Election etc. Theirs always seems far more tory than the others. May2015 have a small labour lead (273 - 271), as do others like the guardian and polling observatory. Election forecast has the tories by 13 seats. Probably on the balance of things we are looking at a very slight tory lead, we may even have a total dead heat.
Given BLUKIP campaign where they've painted the DUP as mentalists (and frankly a lot of them are, honestly some of the stuff they come out especially on LGBT matters is pretty bad) I doubt the Lib Dems would deal with the DUP in a formal coalition.
D
Deleted member 231381
Unconfirmed Member
ElectionEtc's model predicts the strongest swingback effect of any of the forecasts, which is why it is relatively more Conservative than the others. The closer we get to the election, the more it should approach the other forecasts - which to be fair, it is indeed doing.
Visualante2
Member
Not much point watching the results come in live given the likelihood of a hung parliament.
I was about to post to the effect that Elections Etc's forecast is the most 'Conservative' of the lot, but also to mention that it is one of the most respected.
Also, all of the models still have truly staggering error margins at this point (about 100 seats wide for Labour and the Tories at the minute), so they're still only useful to get a broad picture of the result. That broad picture continues to be a giant fucking shambles which promises to be horrifying and entertaining in roughly equal measure.
Glad I booked the Friday off.
Also, all of the models still have truly staggering error margins at this point (about 100 seats wide for Labour and the Tories at the minute), so they're still only useful to get a broad picture of the result. That broad picture continues to be a giant fucking shambles which promises to be horrifying and entertaining in roughly equal measure.
Glad I booked the Friday off.
FlammableD
Banned
I honestly don't know how to feel about this election. No idea of what we're to get come the 8th. I can't vote for the party I like the best. The party I like the best is getting treated like they're Front National.
I've got the day off after and both the seats in my home town are marginals, so i'm definitely staying up.
CyclopsRock
Member
If Sinn Fein were really keen on refusing to legitimise parliament, they should turn up and vote against literally every queen's speech. That'd be a laugh.
Miles Quaritch
Member
Can't make it out. What does he say?
JonathanEx
Member
Apparently Cameron on Radio 1 went well for him. Admitted he didn't know the minimum wage outside London and someone said "I'm not being funny, mate, but you're the prime minister". Gold.
Masquerader
Member
I was a fan before it was cool.
Didn't know what the living wage rate was (couldn't even make a general guess), in fact he seemed a bit confused by the concept.
Go_Ly_Dow
Member
JonathanEx
Member
Should be on iPlayer shortly, and with video.
QuicheFontaine
Member
If I recall, Lib Dems have said they'd like to deal with the largest party, but haven't ruled out working with the second largest. Keeping their options open for precisely the forecast scenario.
Edit:
Should have said "Zero" for the lulz
Miles Quaritch
Member
ComRes/ITV (UKIP battleground, change vs 2010)
CON 39 (-7)
LAB 28 (+2)
LIB 5 (-10)
UKIP 21 (+15)
GRN 4 (+4)
Not good for UKIP, but not good for the Tories to be honest, the swing to Labour is about 4.5% if that's replicated nationally then Miliband is prime minister.
It's also a bit rich for ITV to claim that it's a UKIP battleground poll. At least three of the 10 seats aren't really UKIP targets just very very safe Tory seats. Forest of Dean, Sittingbourne and Sheppey, East Worthing and Shoreham are as safe as houses Tory seats (in Sittingbourne and Sheppey they got 50% in 2010, in East Worthing and Shoreham they got 49%, Forest of Dean 47%). As it's an average those 3 seats will push up the overall numbers for the Tories somewhat.
As it's ComRes it's also a phone poll which tend to be low for UKIP.
Bizarre poll to be honest. The choice of seats is awful.
CON 39 (-7)
LAB 28 (+2)
LIB 5 (-10)
UKIP 21 (+15)
GRN 4 (+4)
Not good for UKIP, but not good for the Tories to be honest, the swing to Labour is about 4.5% if that's replicated nationally then Miliband is prime minister.
It's also a bit rich for ITV to claim that it's a UKIP battleground poll. At least three of the 10 seats aren't really UKIP targets just very very safe Tory seats. Forest of Dean, Sittingbourne and Sheppey, East Worthing and Shoreham are as safe as houses Tory seats (in Sittingbourne and Sheppey they got 50% in 2010, in East Worthing and Shoreham they got 49%, Forest of Dean 47%). As it's an average those 3 seats will push up the overall numbers for the Tories somewhat.
As it's ComRes it's also a phone poll which tend to be low for UKIP.
Bizarre poll to be honest. The choice of seats is awful.
Is there a way to find a breakdown just for South Thanet and the other seats which matter?
Not until the tables come out maybe tonight, perhaps tomorrow. They might not have seat by seat breakdowns.
Billy_Pilgrim
Member
Cameron being torn to shreds by youngsters on Radio 1. This is gold.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/newsbeat/article/32416542/david-cameron-in-the-live-lounge-defends-record-on-lgbt-rights
http://www.bbc.co.uk/newsbeat/article/32416542/david-cameron-in-the-live-lounge-defends-record-on-lgbt-rights
Vote for who you like best, that's how this should work.
People tend to be a bit hyperbolic about parties they don't like.
CyclopsRock
Member
"Ooops didn't realise I was still on camera! Also he's .22 calibre mind in a .357 magnum world."
Stallion Dan
Member
If they care they'll have registered, if they don't then this isn't gonna do anything because they didn't register in time.
Watching it now, pretty tough on David Cameron so far, they're not letting him weasel out particularly with the DUP issue.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episode/p02p8nl8/newsbeat-david-cameron
On the DUP issue he practically stated that they would form a coalition with them, but would try not to listen to them too much. Very much in contrast to their statements regarding Labour and the SNP's. Hypocritical, but not surprising from Cameron.
I'm surprised Labour haven't jumped on this. I would think being associated with the DUP is more toxic than the SNP.
- Status
Similar threads
- Locked
- Locked