Well that's one way to look at it I suppose. The other is that these things shouldn't have to be leaked at all, and that the Conservatives should just let us know where the money/those cuts will be coming. Seems awfully sly to withhold that information till after the elections. Though I appreciate that's an issue systemic with politics full stop.
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May 7th | UK General Election 2015 OT - Please go vote!
- Thread starter Volotaire
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Well that's one way to look at it I suppose. The other is that these things shouldn't have to be leaked at all, and that the Conservatives should just let us know where the money/those cuts will be coming. Seems awfully sly to withhold that information till after the elections. Though I appreciate that's an issue systemic with politics full stop.
Don Foster's retiring? He was genuinely One Of The Good Ones, I felt. I was never old enough to vote when I lived in Bath, unfortunately, but I would have had no qualms about voting for him even with the current situation.
Lib Dem seems the smart choice, anyway. You're either going to get a Conservative or a Lib Dem, and a Lib Dem still has the *potential* to be a beneficial vote; they're not necessarily going to go into coalition with the Tories, after all.
Vivalaraza
Member
They are seperate issues.
He works at the top of government. He shouldn't be leaking things. Completely unprofessional.
that is what I think, just I put it slightly softer
If everyone had this viewpoint there would be no whistleblowers ever.
indeed, but he wont be in any coalition after this, so he has killed his career in one minute
Vivalaraza
Member
This isn't whistle blowing.
It's a document from 3 years ago, about cuts The Tories have already spoken about on record btw.
If he was so disgusted by it he should have leaked it back then. He's been complicit in what this government has been doing and it's hard to believe he's leaking it now because he wants to help save us from the big bad Tories. Just a very cheap stunt and not something somebody in his position should be doing.
Jezbollah
Member
My initial reaction when I read this story is that he's committed a bit of pretty amazing political seppuku...
JesseEwiak
Member
Oh know, somebody being unprofessional! Do you need to be given some pearls to clutch?
QuicheFontaine
Member
Ehhh, really stretching the definition of "whistleblower". Was David Laws a whistleblower?
FlammableD
Banned
Because the Tory campaign has been 100% professional thus far.
Vivalaraza
Member
And how is that relevant?
It's not a defence of the Tories. I'm criticising him because he's done something wrong.
Spuck-uk
Banned
A very good post. Thanks.
It's almost certain he's not going to be an MP after the election.
What it does do, along with the Times Lib Dem story, is make it increasingly doubtful that the Lib Dems will consider propping up the Tories again.
Considering Farage has basically had his own personal BBC news crew for the last three years, and how he'd still be an unknown if it weren't for the BBC's inexplicable fawning over him, this is absolutely ludicrous.
A week ago I was pretty sure Cameron staying in Number 10 was impossible, and we'd either get a Labour minority or another election. Starting to think it could happen though. They'd probably have to get the Lib Dems back on board, and get them to work with the DUP (eww), but it doesn't seem impossible anymore.
QuicheFontaine
Member
'Nick Ferrari' sounds like Nigel Farage's Italian cousin.
this is a website run by Nick Silver who got the US elections 100% right
http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/uk-elections-2015/index.html?initialWidth=1024&childId=example
it is updated daily, as it stands it all comes down to Labour and the SNP, if they do a deal there is nothing tories can do, if they don't then they can
Put aside political allegiances and opinions for one second, I'm looking for a constructive, informative insight here.
What is the best chance the Conservatives have of staying in power? I ask this purely because I don't know, whereas a Labour-SNP coalition readily offers one option for Miliband's party.
Every projection I look at has the Conservatives winning more seats, but with the likes of SNP company ruling out working with them it pretty much only leaves Liberal Democrats and DUP. Even the 'best chance' numbers I'm seeing don't add up to that required 323 number.
Unless I've overlooked something I can't see why a return to power for Labour isn't being considered all but certain right now. The only way I see otherwise is Conservatives and Liberal Democrats gaining quite a few votes in the next week and winning some surprise seats from Labour.
What is the best chance the Conservatives have of staying in power? I ask this purely because I don't know, whereas a Labour-SNP coalition readily offers one option for Miliband's party.
Every projection I look at has the Conservatives winning more seats, but with the likes of SNP company ruling out working with them it pretty much only leaves Liberal Democrats and DUP. Even the 'best chance' numbers I'm seeing don't add up to that required 323 number.
Unless I've overlooked something I can't see why a return to power for Labour isn't being considered all but certain right now. The only way I see otherwise is Conservatives and Liberal Democrats gaining quite a few votes in the next week and winning some surprise seats from Labour.
Note that Nate isn't actually doing any analysis of the UK election - he got it unbeliveably wrong in 2010 so this time around he's just using public policy's projections that are all done and based in the UK.
Also to be fair, a lot of people got 2012 perfectly right - the polls were very clear on who was going to win, it was just a very odd media narrative pushing the idea it was close, and the desperation of the Republican Party and their belief in skewed polls.
Also to be fair, a lot of people got 2012 perfectly right - the polls were very clear on who was going to win, it was just a very odd media narrative pushing the idea it was close, and the desperation of the Republican Party and their belief in skewed polls.
Didn't Nate predict ~125 Lib Dem MPs in 2010? He's very good at predicting the US elections, but 50 states are a lot easier than 650 constituencies.
I still think Ed as PM is more likely, but if Lab/SNP (plus Plaid and the Greens I guess) don't have a majority between them it'll be difficult for them to get other parties on board.
It's exactly that. Based on what we currently know, it's a long shot for the conservatives to get back into power. For that to happen a few things need to occur:
1) The lib dems don't suffer as many losses as currently predicted, and they take 30+ seats
2) the Tories don't lose as many as predicted in the marginals, and they retain a sizeable lead over labour.
I'm honestly convinced that a lot of the anti-scottish stuff over the last few weeks has been less about trying to win an election, and more about delegitimising any labour / SNP government with the aim of forcing a new election in the next couple of years which only the tory party can actually afford to compete in (the others parties are basically broke).
travisbickle
Member
What a load of right-wing reactionary bullshit, with literally no basis in the facts of what kind of families apply for child benefits and for what reason.
The moment the election is over the rhetoric from Miliband about no deals with the SNP will cease...
frankly no one knows, the best guess I reckon is a minority Labour government with SNP support on key votes, queen speech, budget etc... for that trident will go...
now the tories are in real trouble as they have helped unleash the SNP, but I can actually see a short parliament here....
and Boris Johnson should be leader by then and I suspect that will lead to comfortable torie majority
but of course this is all conjecture
I did score 97% Ukip and 92% Conservative in that poll, so I am right wing, but not dangerously so
Tories are going to win more seats, that's clear.
So they can try and form a minority government.
SNP have said they won't support them, but Labour could, I guess, abstain from the Queens speech, allowing Tories to form a minority government, then vote them down with the help of SNP on any major issues that arise, which will probably, in a few months time, lead to a vote of no confidence.
Labour then swoop in, clean up the mess of the previous months and govern with the help of the SNP.
It's very unlikely and a risky strategy, but could help Labour gain support in future.
I dunno, just guessing here
LOL YES!!!
imagine it, the keys to number 10, with Cars, Flats, and all the trimmings, or being displaced as leader and going into obscurity....
not a chance in hell he means that, it was a reaction to counter torie spin...
for the good of the country and all that. and it will cost the English dear
Does he need a coalition with them?
SNP have said they won't support the Tories (and neither should they, they'd get wiped out again in Scotland)
So Ed just needs their support in the Queens speech and the rest of the parliament is on a vote by vote basis.
On most issues Lab / SNP / PC / Greens agree, so that's fine
On Trident Lab / Cons agree, so that's fine.
They'll be some stuff they won't be able to get through without pandering to the left a bit and throwing them a bone or two, but other than that I don't see why they'd want to go into a coalition
FlammableD
Banned
CyclopsRock
Member
omg. We are having a discussion at work about panoramas and where the sun is positioned and my colleague Nick made a good point. Another guy then said "I agree with Nick" and I burst out laughing and practically screamed "IT'S LIKE 2010 ALL OVER AGAIN!" and they all think I'm a dickhead 
What benefit would there be to Ed of a Lab / SNP coalition government over a Lab minority government?
I really don't see the issue of the SNP having influence at Westminster. They are democratically elected representatives like anyone else. All political parties service particular constituencies over others - isn't it also worrying how the Tories don't exist in metropolitan areas anymore?
I would also say it isn't clear the Tories win the most seats - ash crofts marginal polls consistently show that labours lead in the marginals is higher than the national figures, which could easily produce a result on Election Day where they have more seats but less votes. I do agree personally however - my gut feeling is Tories slightly ahead in seat numbers.
R. Boris being leader - not happening, bet on it. Smart money is currently on Theresa May, but if you look at previous conservative leadership battles you'll see they never go in for coronations. I would expect a very wide field of candidates and am very willing to bet Boris doesn't get it.
I would also say it isn't clear the Tories win the most seats - ash crofts marginal polls consistently show that labours lead in the marginals is higher than the national figures, which could easily produce a result on Election Day where they have more seats but less votes. I do agree personally however - my gut feeling is Tories slightly ahead in seat numbers.
R. Boris being leader - not happening, bet on it. Smart money is currently on Theresa May, but if you look at previous conservative leadership battles you'll see they never go in for coronations. I would expect a very wide field of candidates and am very willing to bet Boris doesn't get it.
Haha, that was good. At least you're a witty dickhead.omg. We are having a discussion at work about panoramas and where the sun is positioned and my colleague Nick made a good point. Another guy then said "I agree with Nick" and I burst out laughing and practically screamed "IT'S LIKE 2010 ALL OVER AGAIN!" and they all think I'm a dickhead
Wouldn't be surprised if you're Grant Shapps' neogaf account.lol, I know I am like a walking conservative advert
yeah, he may not, I was more referring to his on the spot statement where he said no deals...
but I still think they will talk, and see if they agree
Neither party wants a coalition.
A minority labour government which is backed by the SNP at votes of confidence however is likely, and hasn't been ruled out by either party.
FlammableD
Banned
lol, I know I am like a walking conservative advert
Hey, be proud of who you are, don't change just cause a dirty liberal talks shit about you
They won't do a formal deal or coalition. People are forgetting that it is very much against Labours interest to show that a lab / SNP government can work. If they ever want those Scottish seats back they need to put some water between them and the SNP, and part of that is showing that you need to vote labour to get a strong, non-tory government.
Labour minority government, that falls over in a couple of years, is my best guess. No formal agreement between the parties, and everyone uses the time to lick their wounds and sort their leadership issues out. Unfortunately for Labour they will be behind the curve on this one - the conservatives will axe Cameron in a heart beat if they don't get back in, and the Libs are probably going to have to chose a new leader anyways, but labour will have to keep Ed until he loses an election.
Labour minority government, that falls over in a couple of years, is my best guess. No formal agreement between the parties, and everyone uses the time to lick their wounds and sort their leadership issues out. Unfortunately for Labour they will be behind the curve on this one - the conservatives will axe Cameron in a heart beat if they don't get back in, and the Libs are probably going to have to chose a new leader anyways, but labour will have to keep Ed until he loses an election.
Psychotext
Member
Not half as ludicrous as this:
glol, brilliant. Fair play to the man, he knows exactly what he's doing.
I often wondered do you think MP's who will never become ministers prefer to be in government or opposition?
My local MP is a very safe tory seat, and I wonder if he quite like being in opposition as it is easier to throw mud than defend your parties actions I guess...
go back to 2010 unconfirmed reports were basically saying Labour wanted to go into opposition
My local MP is a very safe tory seat, and I wonder if he quite like being in opposition as it is easier to throw mud than defend your parties actions I guess...
go back to 2010 unconfirmed reports were basically saying Labour wanted to go into opposition
Not half as ludicrous as this:
Mental. He's literally always on the fucking thing.
CyclopsRock
Member
To be an MP in a rotton borough is basically my dream. It's just such a great lifestyle. Opposition? Government? Who gives a shit. I gots mah money, I gots mah London flat, I gots mah subsidised bar I can get drunk in before shagging underaged prostitutes supplied by my Peer buddy.
Lol.
That's not the only thing Danny Alexander won't be in come the 8th.
jimbobsmells
Member
Holy shit time for a career change. How do I sign up.
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