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May 7th | UK General Election 2015 OT - Please go vote!

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G

Goodlife

Member
Decent ish article

https://yougov.co.uk/news/2015/04/29/why-its-so-hard-cameron-win/

The conclusion is clear. Unless the numbers of Lib Dems, SNP or Ukip MPs are very differently from those indicated above, the Tories need close to 290 MPs to stay in power, while Labour just needs to get past the 270 mark. That is why the winning posts for the two parties in two week’s time are different, and why Miliband could enter Downing Street even if he leads a slightly smaller contingent of MPs than Cameron.
 
F

f0rk

Member
Having a minority government that can't form a coalition with the people that put them there feels really dodgy to me, from both sides of the deal. It's like Labour aren't excepting who gave them power, and the SNP aren't excepting the responsibility of rule. You could say neither are respecting the public voting that supposedly wanted the winner in government, but I guess the counter argument is you're voting for local representation and whether they are in government or not is irrelevant.
 
K

kmag

Member
Goodlife said:
Decent ish article

https://yougov.co.uk/news/2015/04/29/why-its-so-hard-cameron-win/

The conclusion is clear. Unless the numbers of Lib Dems, SNP or Ukip MPs are very differently from those indicated above, the Tories need close to 290 MPs to stay in power, while Labour just needs to get past the 270 mark. That is why the winning posts for the two parties in two week’s time are different, and why Miliband could enter Downing Street even if he leads a slightly smaller contingent of MPs than Cameron.
Click to expand...

And even that 290 relies on Lib Dem support Clegg (if he's still around) might not be able to deliver if you take today's Times front page story at face value.
 
N

nib95

Banned
Saw this on Russell Brand's twitter lol.

CDrq0VHWIAApLjC.jpg:large
 
M

Maledict

Member
f0rk said:
Having a minority government that can't form a coalition with the people that put them there feels really dodgy to me, from both sides of the deal. It's like Labour aren't excepting who gave them power, and the SNP aren't excepting the responsibility of rule. You could say neither are respecting the public voting that supposedly wanted the winner in government, but I guess the counter argument is you're voting for local representation and whether they are in government or not is irrelevant.
Click to expand...

I don't understand this.

If no majority occurs, then there is no winner. They aren't defying the public voting, it's the public voting that creates this situation. The fact that one party might get 15 more seats than the other does not, in any way shape or form, given them the sole right to form a government. That is literally not how our system of government works.

This isn't a presidential election - the government is formed by whoever can pass a Queen's speech.
 
D

danwarb

Member
f0rk said:
Having a minority government that can't form a coalition with the people that put them there feels really dodgy to me, from both sides of the deal. It's like Labour aren't excepting who gave them power, and the SNP aren't excepting the responsibility of rule. You could say neither are respecting the public voting that supposedly wanted the winner in government, but I guess the counter argument is you're voting for local representation and whether they are in government or not is irrelevant.
Click to expand...

It's not dodgy in reality, if more people voted for Lab/SNP/PC/Green... with more (relative to Tory) closely aligned policies, and they have enough support to form a minority government. Fewer people would have voted for Cameron's ideas, as was true last time out.
 
K

kmag

Member
Tak3n said:
Simon Hughes (Lib Dem) said on radio 5 today, he was happy for his party to go straight back into a coalition with the conservatives...

says to ignore those in his party who say 'never again'

Danny Alexander wont be in it I bet!! lol
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You can ignore them right up to the point you need them to vote for it. The Lib Dems leadership have to take any coalition past their MP's, their Federal Committee and then a vote of their party members. Even then I'm not sure all their MP's would turn up on the day.
 
T

Tak3n

Banned
so, Lib Dems say David Cameron commissioned the report on cutting child benefit

Conservatives say Lib Dems commissioned the report, not them

this is bound to come up on tonights debates, and the press could chase the truth here and someone is going to get caught out stone face lying
 
K

kmag

Member
Tak3n said:
so, Lib Dems say David Cameron commissioned the report on cutting child benefit

Conservatives say Lib Dems commissioned the report, not them

this is bound to come up on tonights debates, and the press could chase the truth here and someone is going to get caught out stone face lying
Click to expand...

The actual report contains blurb from IDS saying it was commissioned at the behest of David Cameron, according to the Guardian Journalist who's seen it.

Patrick Wintour ✔@patrickwintour
The June welfare "summer reading paper" from Iain Duncan Smith to the Quad clearly says it comes after a request from the Prime Minister.
 
U

Uzzy

Member
Maledict said:
I really don't see the issue of the SNP having influence at Westminster. They are democratically elected representatives like anyone else. All political parties service particular constituencies over others - isn't it also worrying how the Tories don't exist in metropolitan areas anymore?
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You're confusing two issues, I feel. Of course the SNP have every right to have influence at Westminster, given that their democratically elected representatives will have a popular mandate. I don't think anyone, even the most absurd Daily Mail reader, would argue that.

The worry I have is that as the SNP don't want my country to exist anymore, why would they give a single damn about the good governance of it? If anything they'll benefit from making Westminster as dysfunctional as possible. The Tories may not have seats in metropolitan areas, but they aren't calling for the home counties to declare independence from them.

Maledict said:
I don't understand this.

If no majority occurs, then there is no winner. They aren't defying the public voting, it's the public voting that creates this situation. The fact that one party might get 15 more seats than the other does not, in any way shape or form, given them the sole right to form a government. That is literally not how our system of government works.

This isn't a presidential election - the government is formed by whoever can pass a Queen's speech.
Click to expand...

Sure, but you just know that the narrative will form that the Tories won the election by getting more seats, and so Ed's stealing/sneaking into office as a loser. The press have never liked Ed, so they'll be pushing that like crazy. If it sticks then he'll be in for one hell of a bumpy ride in office.
 
K

King_Moc

Banned
kmag said:
The actual report contains blurb from IDS saying it was commissioned at the behest of David Cameron, according to the Guardian Journalist who's seen it.

Patrick Wintour ✔@patrickwintour
The June welfare "summer reading paper" from Iain Duncan Smith to the Quad clearly says it comes after a request from the Prime Minister.
Click to expand...

Zero coverage of this in most of Tomorrow's press then.
 
T

tomtom94

Member
Uzzy said:
You're confusing two issues, I feel. Of course the SNP have every right to have influence at Westminster, given that their democratically elected representatives will have a popular mandate. I don't think anyone, even the most absurd Daily Mail reader, would argue that.

The worry I have is that as the SNP don't want my country to exist anymore, why would they give a single damn about the good governance of it? If anything they'll benefit from making Westminster as dysfunctional as possible. The Tories may not have seats in metropolitan areas, but they aren't calling for the home counties to declare independence from them.
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Well put.

Uzzy said:
Sure, but you just know that the narrative will form that the Tories won the election by getting more seats, and so Ed's stealing/sneaking into office as a loser. The press have never liked Ed, so they'll be pushing that like crazy. If it sticks then he'll be in for one hell of a bumpy ride in office.
Click to expand...

There is also the distinct chance the Conservatives might get more votes, at which point the legitimacy of a Labour/SNP coalition takes a nosedive.
 
M

Maledict

Member
But they do pursue policies that are directly damaging to large areas of the country to shore up their support in particular areas. I.e. The proposed inheritance tax policy, or the gifting of houses thing - that's a policy purely designed for the South East, and a huge give away to the one areas of the country that really doesn't need it.

And re wanting to break up the government - I can't really say anything other than 'that's democracy'. I fervantly support the union, and hope that if the SNP do spend the next couple of years wrecking Westminster they will be punished at the polls for it, but I don't agree with the idea they are 'sabeouturs' (as today's Sun calls them) or they somehow have less legitimacy than others. They were elected in a platform by their constituents, they will win or lose based on how well their constituents judge their actions. If that leads to scottish independance then so be it - but I have confidence in our democracy to get through that.

(Heck, I really doubt the SNP will be as disruptive as the anti-euro MPs were in the mid 90s under Major).
 
K

kmag

Member
Uzzy said:
You're confusing two issues, I feel. Of course the SNP have every right to have influence at Westminster, given that their democratically elected representatives will have a popular mandate. I don't think anyone, even the most absurd Daily Mail reader, would argue that.

The worry I have is that as the SNP don't want my country to exist anymore, why would they give a single damn about the good governance of it? If anything they'll benefit from making Westminster as dysfunctional as possible. The Tories may not have seats in metropolitan areas, but they aren't calling for the home counties to declare independence from them.



Sure, but you just know that the narrative will form that the Tories won the election by getting more seats, and so Ed's stealing/sneaking into office as a loser. The press have never liked Ed, so they'll be pushing that like crazy. If it sticks then he'll be in for one hell of a bumpy ride in office.
Click to expand...

I think it might be difficult for that no mandate narrative to take hold, unless Cameron immediately resigns. If it comes to a vote of no confidence and a forced resignation then that process basically takes the sting out of the whole thing, you had your shot and this time you couldn't cobble together a Government. Next man up.

Lets not forget it looks pretty likely that Cameron won't have 'won' an election in two attempts.

Of course most of the print media will lump on to the no mandate argument come what may but if the process is actually seen to have been carried out then that will diffuse a lot of it.
 
R

RedShift

Member
Black Republican said:
damn i missed ed balls day :(


btw its probably too late now, but i live in canada now but born and raised in South London, can i still vote somehow?
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Too late, if you are eligible the deadline to register was a week or so ago.

EDIT: Quick Google suggests you'd be eligible if you're a UK or Irish citizen and you lived in the UK less than 15 years ago, and if you were old enough you registered to vote before you left.
 
T

Tak3n

Banned
it is easy to see why Nicola Sturgeon is proving popular, she has a habit of telling it exactly as it is


SNP leader Nicola Sturgeon said: "Danny Alexander has got a bit of a cheek. He's been part and parcel of the government for the last five years that has introduced and imposed these savage cuts.

"I think people want change certainly from the Tories and I think they want a change from the Lib Dems as well."
Click to expand...
 
T

Tak3n

Banned
well we know the cuts are coming, from both parties

BBC posted this

Officials at the Department for Work and Pension have struggled for months with how to cut £12bn from welfare spending should the Tories win the election.

BBC News has learned that one option they'll present to any incoming Conservative ministers is to scrap child benefit for all but the poorest families.

The change would see only those people receiving Universal Credit get child benefit, protecting the poorest third of families.

But two-thirds of families who currently get the benefit - households whose earnings were about £40,000 or more - would completely lose the benefit.

Officials calculate the change would save about £4bn per year.

The difficulties of saving £12bn have been exacerbated by low inflation.

The major detail given by the Tories - to freeze working age benefit levels for two years - was predicted to save £3bn when announced by the chancellor last September.

However a recent calculation by the Institute for Fiscal Studies has found that low inflation has reduced that saving to nearer £1bn.
Click to expand...
 
T

Tak3n

Banned
I wonder how long it will be before he is dragged away, looks like he has decided to go out spilling the beans

Chief Secretary to the Treasury Danny Alexander has been at it again today . This time saving the wages of Welsh public servants.

Mr Alexander said he blocked plans that would have "slashed" Welsh workers' pay last year.

He said the Conservatives wanted to vary public sector pay around the UK, despite dropping the idea in 2012.

At the time, a letter emerged in which Mr Alexander told First Minister Carwyn Jones he wanted regional pay.

The Conservatives have accused the Lib Dems of hypocrisy, calling Mr Alexander regional pay's "foremost champion".

The letter to Mr Jones said Mr Alexander was "keen to see local, market-facing pay introduced across the UK".
Click to expand...
 
M

mclem

Member
Uzzy said:
The worry I have is that as the SNP don't want my country to exist anymore, why would they give a single damn about the good governance of it?
Click to expand...

Because even if that's an overall goal, there's still the small matter of day-to-day living on the way to it? Because they *really* don't want to drive people back to the Tories?

"You (nominally) had power and you fucked it up" is pretty crippling. Just ask Clegg.
 
A

AGoodODST

Member
mclem said:
Because even if that's an overall goal, there's still the small matter of day-to-day living on the way to it? Because they *really* don't want to drive people back to the Tories?

"You (nominally) had power and you fucked it up" is pretty crippling. Just ask Clegg.
Click to expand...

Especially in the context of the Scottish Elections next year.
 
M

mclem

Member
Well, it won't matter this time around, but it looks like there's a new minor party appearing for the 2020 elections:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/entertainment-arts-32531750

I have to admit, I'm very fond of Sandi - I'd regard her as a national treasure if it wasn't for the fact that she's not actually British! - and she's quite impassioned on the subject. It's a bit too single-issuey, of course - I guess that's inevitable - but it's not an unimportant issue, and it sounds like they're fully aware that they're going to be pushing from the outside.

And besides, the idea of Sandi perhaps being part of a debate would be delightful.
 
T

Tak3n

Banned
well someone is going to get royally fucked over if the tories get in as they have ruled out any cuts to child benefit now to counter that leak from the lib dems

No cuts to child benefit. Because what we instead have proposed is that working age benefits are frozen for the next two years. We think that's a more equitable, fairer way of making sure we contain the costs of our welfare system. You can see with us we have delivered more people in work, a welfare system that has got people back to work who were previously unemployed (and) an economy that's continuing to grow.
Click to expand...
 
M

Maledict

Member
So that saves £1 billion, thanks to inflation. So just another £11 bllion to find, from the smallest part of the welfare budget.
 
K

kmag

Member
Tak3n said:
well someone is going to get royally fucked over if the tories get in as they have ruled out any cuts to child benefit now to counter that leak from the lib dems
Click to expand...

We (and the IFS) already know about the freeze, it accounts for 1/12th of the benefits cuts they say they 'need' to make.

Due to the protected spend in the welfare budget they're pretty limited, they've already cut the easy stuff. If they're ruling out child benefit then there almost certainly going to have fuck over the disabled.
 
R

RedShift

Member
Sir Fragula said:
I don't think the SNP have ever called for the abolition of any of our countries. They just want to disband the union between them.
Click to expand...

I know you hate the idea and like to pretend we don't exist but a significant number of us consider the United Kingdom to be our country.
 
V

Visualante2

Member
Dan27 said:
I suspect we'll be hearing a lot of that M word after next Thursday......
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Many of whom were probably silent through the police and crime commissioner elections.
Maledict said:
So that saves £1 billion, thanks to inflation. So just another £11 bllion to find, from the smallest part of the welfare budget.
Click to expand...
Increase sanctions to 5 years. Remove appeals. Close all job centres, just let the work programme take over all unemployment benefits.
 
D

Deleted member 231381

Unconfirmed Member
Mindwipe said:
Which will be bollocks, since the electoral mandate will be very clear - "none of you."

Cameron does not, and will never have, a democratic mandate.
Click to expand...

Except he does, insofar as that his government is afforded confidence by the elected house.
 
T

Tregard

Soothsayer
Maledict said:
Is that necessarily a bad thing? This sort of horrific bigotry and prejudice is awful, and putting it forth and centre in the debate can only help surely?
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It's not even surprising though, it's almost expected to hear such hateful things from political candidates in NI. Certain members of the DUP have been saying, while not as extreme, very similar things (Jim Wells, the man being discussed, is one of them), and yet, even with such vitriolic views, they are the majority party in Northern Ireland, and potentially the kingmakers in this Election. That's terrifying.
 
B

BossDarkseid

Member
I feel like I'll be spending most of the bank holiday weekend checking some campaign literature. I support the idea of a devolution of power so Scotland, Wales, NI etc but I still like the Union...

Sturgeon strikes me as the sort of politician you'd want in your corner, but I don't really feel like a vote for SNP (even if they were a choice for me) would be a valid choice...but I want to safeguard the NHS (3 years ago my Grandmother died after a few years between care and hospital with a raft of things wrong but she generally got good care even if some nurses were a bit shit [talking behind her back etc and moaning]) since it's important to me personally...

Eh. Even though it'd probably make some of my family turn white I'll probably vote Labour. I'm used to the tuition fees (boo), but the NHS etc are quite important. I'd probably consider voting Green if I thought they had a snowball's chance in hell of getting in.

But the trusty http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Epsom_and_Ewell_(UK_Parliament_constituency) tells me I live in a sizeable-ish Con majority...
 
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