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[kmag]

New (29/04-30/04) @panelbase #GE2015 poll results: LAB 34% (NC), CON 32% (+1%), UKIP 17% (NC), LD 8% (+1), GRN 4% (NC). Tables up later.

Panelbase seem to have a big issue with UKIP, they consistently have them higher than any other pollster which drags the Tory vote down compared to other polls.

 

[BossDarkseid]

Ooof, good luck with that. I'm not looking forward to possibly being in Guildford when the next election comes round, and that's miles closer than that.

Heh, to be honest I can't complain. It might seem trivial but the only real thing I can think of is Grayling's proposal to expand the Oyster Card zones to include Epsom etc sounds very nice! I guess compared to the last election (where I voted when I had no idea and pretty much followed my Dad's lead) now I'm trying to vote with a bit more interest and education about it.

To be honest I wouldn't mind voting for a Labour/SNP coalition, but besides the NHS the carrot dangling in front of me are a lowering of tuition fees (did my application about a week ago) but they could so easily take that away and I imagine a reduction of even 3k would cost a fair amount.

 

[danwarb]

So basically the entirety of the Nothern Irish election news where I am is currently being dominated by this

I'm surprised she was allowed to go on for so long, but better out than in if she's put right.

 

[ReplacementPelican]

So basically the entirety of the Nothern Irish election news where I am is currently being dominated by this

What a disgusting, odious woman.

She said homosexuals are 40x more likely to abuse children and then just named two cases where it happened as though that proves her point.

I also googled only the last name and found nothing about what she was talking about. I'm assuming she pulled it out of her arse because she was shut down so the debate wasn't libelous and there was 'no proof' according to the moderator.

 

[kitch9]

Which will be bollocks, since the electoral mandate will be very clear - "none of you."

Cameron does not, and will never have, a democratic mandate.

Why don't you write and get them to change centuries of constitution?

 

[f0rk]

I don't understand this.

If no majority occurs, then there is no winner. They aren't defying the public voting, it's the public voting that creates this situation. The fact that one party might get 15 more seats than the other does not, in any way shape or form, given them the sole right to form a government. That is literally not how our system of government works.

This isn't a presidential election - the government is formed by whoever can pass a Queen's speech.

I'm not bothered about having 1 winner, I'm really questioning why create a minority government when you could form a coalition, or at least discuss it. If the SNP want to prove they care about the rest of Britain why not use their votes to actually get into the British government?

For me it's about the willingness to compromise to do what's best for the country, but that's a dirty word or some people I guess.

It would be interesting to see what the SNP would actually do with national defense when they have the same advisors and intelligence as those that have been responsible for it before.

 

[pulsemyne]

New (29/04-30/04) @panelbase #GE2015 poll results: LAB 34% (NC), CON 32% (+1%), UKIP 17% (NC), LD 8% (+1), GRN 4% (NC). Tables up later.

Panelbase seem to have a big issue with UKIP, they consistently have them higher than any other pollster which drags the Tory vote down compared to other polls.

Labour seem to be pretty much welded to 33/34 percent in the polls so I think we can say with some confidence that this is their true number. If that is the case then they should be good for about 270 seats with the tories doing about the same.
As for the high UKiP amount, it does seem to be a fair deal above the 13 ish percent they have been getting in various polls but they also have a sight drag factor on labour as well so maybe a point to labour and a couple to the tories and it's pretty much neck and neck which is what most people expect.
Could be wrong though, maybe panelbase factor in for shy ukippers.
Still we are very much within the MoE and dispite all the bile and mud slinging nothing much has chanced.

 

[Jezbollah]

What's the likelihood that the most entertaining moment of Election night will be Winston McKenzie having a meltdown during an interview after UKIP fail?

 

[kmag]

If you want to see the sort of fucks up which have led Scottish Labour to this position in Scotland, you only have to look at today's FMQ's, Sturgeon's response is wonderfully dismissive.

https://youtu.be/srFRjAlrMQs?t=591

 

[pulsemyne]

What's the likelihood that the most entertaining moment of Election night will be Winston McKenzie having a meltdown during an interview after UKIP fail?

If the tories have a bad night then Goves meltdown will be so good.

 

[Fernando Fernandez]

So remember that story about HSBC leaving the UK? It was a Conservative election ploy against Labour if this whistleblower is to be believed.

Edit: was a link to a website I didn't know was banned! Sorry!

 

[Mr. Luchador]

EDIT

Wrong thread.

 

[danwarb]

So remember that story about HSBC leaving the UK? It was a Conservative election ploy against Labour if this whistleblower is to be believed.

Edit: was a link to a website I didn't know was banned! Sorry!

It was concerning a possible EU referendum though? That would make no sense.

 

[PJV3]

It was concerning a possible EU referendum though? That would make no sense.

The labour stuff was about the levy and regulation, but yeah both parties were threatened. Doesn't seem likely.

 

[GRW810]

Interesting that two finance publications - FT and Economist - are both backing Conservatives to stay in power and continue the economic recovery.

Fearing a backlash here, I'd be really interested in a Conservative government in which they had successfully met economic targets and led in a new era of posterity. Say what you want about each party, everyone is entitled to their opinion, but I'm at an age whereby I spent my non-voting years watching Labour flounder and then used my first ever vote to back a Conservative government who have done well in a difficult situation. That might be simplistic, I'm sure Conservative-haters will accuse me of ignorance, but that's just how it is for me.

I'm not a Conservative supporter; I still don't know which way I'll vote this time and I'm repeatedly scouring manifestos. My main issue is that not a single party has offered me a reason why their reign would result in a considerably better life. Miliband is very honest and open in apologising for several big errors Labour made last time, but if they couldn't use thirteen years to more effectively shape the country, I feel the current government deserve more than five.

I think I'm just speaking out loud. I want to come to a decision based on the good, not the least bad.

 

[Walshicus]

Conservative policies might drive top level 'growth', but the benefits of that mostly skip the working population and go instead to the parasite class. So vote Tory if you want the Parasite class to prosper.

 

[Kathian]

If you want to see the sort of fucks up which have led Scottish Labour to this position in Scotland, you only have to look at today's FMQ's, Sturgeon's response is wonderfully dismissive.

https://youtu.be/srFRjAlrMQs?t=591

Kind of feel bad for Kezia, she did well without a leader but is having to toe the line (a really fucking terrible line).

 

[Goodlife]

but if they couldn't use thirteen years to more effectively shape the country,

That's the only thing I really disagree with from your post.

Labour did some really good things during their 13 years in power:

introducing the National Minimum Wage, writing off up to 100% of debt owed by poorest countries, 85,000 more nurses, 32,000 more doctors, Devolution, paternity leave, record number in higher education, 2,000 plus sure start centres, winter fuel payment to oldies, made climate change a priority and passed world's first climate change act, restored devolved government to NI, right to 24 days paid holiday, introduce child tax credit, scrapped section 28, overseas aid budget doubled, free eye tests for over 60s, free TV licence and bus travel for oldies, free entry to museums and galleries, civil partnerships etc... etc... etc...

 

[suedester]

Conservative policies might drive top level 'growth', but the benefits of that mostly skip the working population and go instead to the parasite class. So vote Tory if you want the Parasite class to prosper.

Thanks for your insightful well thought out analysis.

 

[Tak3n]

That's the only thing I really disagree with from your post.

Labour did some really good things during their 13 years in power:

introducing the National Minimum Wage, writing off up to 100% of debt owed by poorest countries, 85,000 more nurses, 32,000 more doctors, Devolution, paternity leave, record number in higher education, 2,000 plus sure start centres, winter fuel payment to oldies, made climate change a priority and passed world's first climate change act, restored devolved government to NI, right to 24 days paid holiday, introduce child tax credit, scrapped section 28, overseas aid budget doubled, free eye tests for over 60s, free TV licence and bus travel for oldies, free entry to museums and galleries, civil partnerships etc... etc... etc...

worth mentioning that they are largely responsible for the fuck up with GP's in this country, the golden contract they handed them was unbelievable..

my wife at the time worked for a GP and they were partying long into the night, she told my wife that they could not believe what they were being offered, it was to paraphrase, the best we could hope for x10..

so you say 32000 GPS, I say 32000 GP's who salary shot up and their workload shot down

 

[suedester]

That's the only thing I really disagree with from your post.

Labour did some really good things during their 13 years in power:

introducing the National Minimum Wage, writing off up to 100% of debt owed by poorest countries, 85,000 more nurses, 32,000 more doctors, Devolution, paternity leave, record number in higher education, 2,000 plus sure start centres, winter fuel payment to oldies, made climate change a priority and passed world's first climate change act, restored devolved government to NI, right to 24 days paid holiday, introduce child tax credit, scrapped section 28, overseas aid budget doubled, free eye tests for over 60s, free TV licence and bus travel for oldies, free entry to museums and galleries, civil partnerships etc... etc... etc...

Yeah, they spent all the money, we know.

 

[Humidex]

Eh up, QT is on pretty early!

 

[avaya]

Interesting that two finance publications - FT and Economist - are both backing Conservatives to stay in power and continue the economic recovery.

Fearing a backlash here, I'd be really interested in a Conservative government in which they had successfully met economic targets and led in a new era of posterity. Say what you want about each party, everyone is entitled to their opinion, but I'm at an age whereby I spent my non-voting years watching Labour flounder and then used my first ever vote to back a Conservative government who have done well in a difficult situation. That might be simplistic, I'm sure Conservative-haters will accuse me of ignorance, but that's just how it is for me.

I'm not a Conservative supporter; I still don't know which way I'll vote this time and I'm repeatedly scouring manifestos. My main issue is that not a single party has offered me a reason why their reign would result in a considerably better life. Miliband is very honest and open in apologising for several big errors Labour made last time, but if they couldn't use thirteen years to more effectively shape the country, I feel the current government deserve more than five.

I think I'm just speaking out loud. I want to come to a decision based on the good, not the least bad.

The facts disagree with you, but it's fine, people vote conservative not based on facts.

 

[kharma45]

Thanks for your insightful well thought out analysis.

I can't tell if he's cleverly taking the piss or actually believes what he posts.

 

[f0rk]

He's always got some note in his pocket lol

 

[jamieson87]

Kind of feel bad for Kezia, she did well without a leader but is having to toe the line (a really fucking terrible line).

She really does look broken. Thought myself as a Yes man that she came across quite competently during Indyref, but she's a far throw from that now.

 

[dapperbandit]

Conservative policies might drive top level 'growth', but the benefits of that mostly skip the working population and go instead to the parasite class. So vote Tory if you want the Parasite class to prosper.

You mean poor layabouts or wealthy layabouts?

 

[danwarb]

Thanks for your insightful well thought out analysis.

That is essentially what's happened over the past 5 years, and what always happens with the trickledown economics shite Tories still believe in.

 

[Walshicus]

I can't tell if he's cleverly taking the piss or actually believes what he posts.

The beneficiaries of Tory policies are generally from the parasite class. I don't know how this can be in dispute.

That doesn't mean that I think Labour are much better, just that they have the decency to at least put up a facade of serving the public interest.

 

[Humidex]

He's bringing Ivan in again....

 

[LanceVance]

Cameron's great at dodging questions

 

[GRW810]

The facts disagree with you, but it's fine, people vote conservative not based on facts.

Why are some people incapable of constructive political conversation without petty sniping? What you've pretty much just done is said "I don't agree with you so you're wrong" and blown a raspberry in my face.

I don't vote Green or LD or SNP but I don't dismiss those who do.

 

[King_Moc]

Cameron's great at dodging questions

Yup, he definitely didn't properly answer that Child Benefit question.

 

[danwarb]

Cameron is a pretty slippery/slimy fellow.

 

[Carl2291]

The problem isn't benefits, Dave.

 

[Scousefury]

I really really hate this cunt, its just lies built on lies built on old money.

 

[Advent1s]

To reiterate a most irritating point, this government has had marginal-no effect on growth, it is not a valid reason to be throwing around on why you vote this or that.

Hyperbole doesn't even describe this crap.

 

[avaya]

Why are some people incapable of constructive political conversation without petty sniping? What you've pretty much just done is said "I don't agree with you so you're wrong" and blown a raspberry in my face.

I don't vote Green or LD or SNP but I don't dismiss those who do.

Not sniping mate but you've fallen for the mendacity of the media discourse.

This country was never bankrupt.

This country was never at risk of default.

The Labour government was never profligate.

Austerity was an ideological choice. It has failed, all growth from 2013 came from cutting back from the cuts and moving the narrative to "long term economic plan". This is not me saying it. This is basic macroeconomics 101. There is a consensus amongst economists about what needs to be done. The current government pursued an ideologically policy, an economically illiterate policy (they knew exactly what they were doing). To then reward them again when they seek to double-down on the same nonsense policy is comedy gold. I say this as a member of the parasite-rentier class, I should be voting Conservative, I'm the archetypal conservative voter.

The job growth is nothing to be proud of, it has come with low productivity. Jobs are worthless unless they pay people sufficiently so they do not need topping up with benefits.

Osborne proudly proclaimed that he was following a New Keynesian economic approach which calls for fiscal austerity when monetary policy can massage the impact. The problem was he decided to do it when interest rates are at zero-lower bound and New Keynesian says don't do it at zero lower bound. Austerity is self defeating. There is no need to cuts, you will not pay-down debt by cutting in such a situation since you shrink the economy.

You can tell if someone is economically illiterate with one simple test it's anyone who equates the economy to a household expenditure problem. My spending is your income. Your spending is my income. The economy is not a household.

 

[King_Moc]

To reiterate a most irritating point, this government has had marginal-no effect on growth, it is not a valid reason to be throwing around on why you vote this or that.

Hyperbole doesn't even describe this crap.

But he said we have a strong economy now! Dave wouldn't lie!

Seriously though, when Dave talks about that stuff, make no mistake, he's talking about big business only. And when he talks of "working families", he means the Murdochs.

 

[GRW810]

People give Cameron a hard time but I find him quite engaging and forthright on a lot of matters. Trouble is he does spin other questions, and those questions are the ones people remember. However, all politicians do that, so it's barely worth picking out one name from another.

I think he's more open than Miliband, who still hasn't informed me why I should vote for his party over another.

Saying all that, the ridiculous notion from armchair critics that these politicians are chin-stroking, back-patting villains is absurd. I actually think most of the leaders in this campaign have led their parties and represented their manifestos very well.

 

[Wes]

This is by far the best format they've had of the "debates" for me.

 

[GRW810]

This is by far the best format they've had of the "debates" for me.

This is absolutely fascinating, I agree. Brilliant audience contribution.

 

[Kotetsu534]

This country was never bankrupt.

This country was never at risk of default.

The Labour government was never profligate.

As Krugman outlined in that (excellent) article above, the true, and spectacular, failure of Labour in opposition has been not to make any effort to defend their economic record in government. In no other developed country has the economic discourse been so completely dominated by a fallacy. Even Spain and Portugal can borrow at historically low rates, and they were, and are, in much worse positions than ours.

 

[Scousefury]

Whoever left that note must be dying

 

[kharma45]

I like whoever this woman is.

Edit - the one before Shirley.

 

[GRW810]

I like whoever this woman is.

Edit - the one before Shirley.

Regardless of politician, regardless of subject, she put her point across brilliantly. Great audience.

 

[kharma45]

Regardless of politician, regardless of subject, she put her point across brilliantly. Great audience.

They're an involved, articulate audience. Great show so far.

 

[Scousefury]

Bankrupted the country? When did that happen you dickhead

 

[avaya]

This gold bug is a cretin. Literal cretin.

As Krugman outlined in that (excellent) article above, the true, and spectacular, failure of Labour has been not to make any effort to defend their economic record in government. In no other developed country has the economic discourse been so completely dominated by a fallacy. Even Spain and Portugal can borrow at historically low rates, and they were, and are, in much worse positions than ours.

It is. They should have actually hired Krugman.

The last 3 questions are perfect illustration of the media macro narrative of total bollocks. I love these "facts".

 

[kharma45]

Ed is getting it tight from the audience.