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[soundwave05]

Shane logic ftl.

In Europe the 360 is priced higher than $400... so thats not really an argument. You seem like you are completely ignoring the price.

The ratio of cores compared to premiums is extremely low also.

And I think it's a cop out of an excuse. There's also the $299.99 model ... perfectly good for the budget consumer (lets face it, if you can't afford the premium, chances are pretty damn low you somehow have a HDTV).

If $400 is such a deal breaker ... what the f-ck does that tell you about Sony on top of that?

If I'm Nintendo lol, I'd love to deal with Microsoft and let Sony choke on their price point in 2007.

Microsoft can't sell for shit in Europe or Japan and has been a spectacular failure in trying to expand the XBox brand beyond a very specific crowd. They'll get theirs in North America, but so will Nintendo. If I'm Iwata, I'd take this scenario every day of the week and twice on Sundays.

 

[smallsoft]

Ah .... if only things were so disconnected like that. More content = better sales worldwide = Western pubs take notice too.

It's not so easy to compete against Nintendo when they have even above average 3rd party support.

Quite a chain reaction you have there, not so sure that Japanese support will be enough to set it off.

 

[cvxfreak]

Wow.

 

[Odysseus]

What about Europe?

Who knows.

Anyway, are you saying "wow?"

500+

Wow.

Edit: He said wow!

 

[PantherLotus]

You're right, it's actually a little less than 3 million through November. But it's hard to know how many Wiis Nintendo will get to the market in December. I could see both the X360 and Wii putting up similar numbers in December if Nintendo can only get about a million units out in December.

Yup. The 250k per week thing comes to mind, although I don't know how factual that is.

 

[kisakiproject]

Even if 360 is at 8-9 million by the end of the year. Wii will be at best 4 million and PS3 at best 1 million. They both have a huge way to catch up. If either do it won't happen until 2008 or at the earliest holiday 2007. Unless no-one buys 360 at all next year.

 

[Branduil]

I think the core market for Nintendo handhelds has not changed. Yes, I think children still make up the vast majority of that market. I recognize the DS is doing much better in Japan than the GBA and that market's dynamics may very well be different than this one, but in the US the DS is on the same track as before and I would say is selling to the same people (or audience) as before.

But in America the GBA was almost as big as the PS2 anyways. It would be ridiculous to assume the GBA only sold to kids. And the success of Nintendogs in female demographics is reason to believe they are expanding their audience.

 

[Kurosaki Ichigo]

Tales of Destiny has to be undershipped ... -.-

 

[mood]

I'm guessing 1 million in the US, 425k+ in Japan, and 350k+ in PAL.

Those are really generous WW numbers I think.

 

[PantherLotus]

Even if 360 is at 8-9 million by the end of the year. Wii will be at best 4 million and PS3 at best 1 million. They both have a huge way to catch up. If either do it won't happen until 2008 or at the earliest holiday 2007. Unless no-one buys 360 at all next year.

And that's where my logic fails. I was thinking about average Wii sales world wide but forgetting that the 360 will still be on sale!

 

[Dalthien]

Wow.

:lol

 

[soundwave05]

If anyone's market hasn't changed it's Microsofts. They're still selling to the same ol' same old' XBox crowd.

Good for 20-25 million and a probable 3rd place finish this gen. They will need to do a hell of a lot better if they want to go beyond that.

 

[kisakiproject]

So Dec NPD and the rest of the months M-create threads are gonna be nuclear wars confirmed.

 

[Odysseus]

But in America the GBA was almost as big as the PS2 anyways. It would be ridiculous to assume the GBA only sold to kids. And the success of Nintendogs in female demographics is reason to believe they are expanding their audience.

Honest inquiry here, do you (or anyone else) have a link where Nintendo has laid out numbers for what their demographics actually are, versus what they were before? Not some PR rhetoric, but actual market surveys? I don't have a link to it, but I certainly remember reading an article about GBA sometime in 2002 or 2003 where Nintendo had said their core audience were people aged 8-12, although it may have been 14. Again, that's not to say older people didn't buy a handheld, because clearly that's not the case.

 

[PantherLotus]

So Dec NPD and the rest of the months M-create threads are gonna be nuclear wars confirmed.

Pretty much, considering this is one week's worth of Japanese software data and we don't even have hardware numbers yet.

Although we could take this whole thing back towards hardware predictions, if you'd like. I think that's how this tangent got started.

 

[justchris]

Yup. The 250k per week thing comes to mind, although I don't know how factual that is.

That was an actual number from Nintendo, but that was before they took back the 1 million for NA thing, so that may have changed.

 

[PantherLotus]

Honest inquiry here, do you (or anyone else) have a link where Nintendo has laid out numbers for what their demographics actually are, versus what they were before? Not some PR rhetoric, but actual market surveys? I don't have a link to it, but I certainly remember reading an article about GBA sometime in 2002 or 2003 where Nintendo had said their core audience were people aged 8-12, although it may have been 14. Again, that's not to say older people didn't buy a handheld, because clearly that's not the case.

I would point you to last month's NPD sales of the GBA vs. the DS. Do you think they're selling to the same crowd?

 

[Karma Kramer]

And I think it's a cop out of an excuse. There's also the $299.99 model ... perfectly good for the budget consumer (lets face it, if you can't afford the premium, chances are pretty damn low you somehow have a HDTV).

If $400 is such a deal breaker ... what the f-ck does that tell you about Sony on top of that?

If I'm Nintendo lol, I'd love to deal with Microsoft and let Sony choke on their price point in 2007.

Microsoft can't sell for shit in Europe or Japan and has been a spectacular failure in trying to expand the XBox brand beyond a very specific crowd. They'll get theirs in North America, but so will Nintendo. If I'm Iwata, I'd take this scenario every day of the week and twice on Sundays.

Sony is ****ed with that $500-$600 price tag.

Microsoft has room to continue dropping the price. (Nintendo doesn't... $200, $150, $100).

If I am Nintendo I would be happy... your right. When did I say you weren't?

But... If I am Microsoft I would be happy.

All in all I think the price is a major issue and I think alot of gamers are waiting till Halo 3. 2007 is a mystery and nothing is certain. You seem to be very confident in the Wii success even though you have nothting to go by besides a launch... which always has "huge" demand.

 

[Odysseus]

I would point you to last month's NPD sales of the GBA vs. the DS. Do you think they're selling to the same crowd?

Yeah, I do.

 

[Branduil]

Honest inquiry here, do you (or anyone else) have a link where Nintendo has laid out numbers for what their demographics actually are, versus what they were before? Not some PR rhetoric, but actual market surveys? I don't have a link to it, but I certainly remember reading an article about GBA sometime in 2002 or 2003 where Nintendo had said their core audience were people aged 8-12, although it may have been 14. Again, that's not to say older people didn't buy a handheld, because clearly that's not the case.

Not that I know of. Though this being GAF, someone must have it. That being said, there's simply no way you can have a console as successful as the GBA and PS2 without broad demographic appeal.

 

[smallsoft]

If anyone's market hasn't changed it's Microsofts. They're still selling to the same ol' same old' XBox crowd.

Good for 20-25 million and a probable 3rd place finish this gen. They will need to do a hell of a lot better if they want to go beyond that.

Well they're barely past year one, I will be first to admit that the only polished game they put out was Gears of War. So its going to take time to pick up, but a lof of their Japanese content will release in 07, not to mention their even more polished Western titles, this should speak to the traditional gamer in NA, Europe, and a little bit even in Japan.

 

[soundwave05]

Sony is ****ed with that $500-$600 price tag.

Microsoft has room to continue dropping the price. (Nintendo doesn't... $200, $150, $100).

If I am Nintendo I would be happy... your right. When did I say you weren't?

But... If I am Microsoft I would be happy.

All in all I think the price is a major issue and I think alot of gamers are waiting till Halo 3. 2007 is a mystery and nothing is certain. You seem to be very confident in the Wii success even though you have nothting to go by besides a launch... which always has "huge" demand.

:lol Nintendo has no room to drop the price? I guess Microsoft bought exclusive rights to price dropping this gen?

2007- $200
2008 - $150
2009 - $129.99
2010 - $99.99

Not to mention a myriad of bundles they could do. 2 Wiimotes for one should be standard IMO. Nintendo can drop the price of the Wii whenever they chose to.

Halo 3, Halo 3, Halo 3 .... yawn. Call me when MS can sell to anyone but this same Halo/Gears of War demographic. Everyone says Nintendo relies too much on their franchises, when in actuality they've moved away from this. When I look at MS, I see the same thing "wait for Halo". Well what else you got besides that?

Sony proved they could sell the PaRappas and Crash Bandicoots of they world just as well as M-rated/hardcore type content. Microsoft ... not yet.

 

[Odysseus]

:lol Nintendo has no room to drop the price? I guess Microsoft bought exclusive rights to price dropping this gen?

2007- $200
2008 - $150
2009 - $129.99
2010 - $99.99

Not to mention a myriad of bundles they could do. 2 Wiimotes for one should be standard IMO. Nintendo can drop the price of the Wii whenever they chose to.

Halo 3, Halo 3, Halo 3 .... yawn. Call me when MS can sell to anyone but this same Halo/Gears of War demographic.

Sony proved they could sell the PaRappas and Crash Bandicoots of they world just as well as M-rated/hardcore type content. Microsoft ... not yet.

So... you up to that wager I laid out before? Yes or no. No biggie, but I don't want to leave it dangling.

 

[kisakiproject]

Hasn't there been polls showing 33% of DS owners were over 40 or something like that?? I could have sworn nintendo bragged about something like when they promote touch generation?

 

[justchris]

Honest inquiry here, do you (or anyone else) have a link where Nintendo has laid out numbers for what their demographics actually are, versus what they were before? Not some PR rhetoric, but actual market surveys? I don't have a link to it, but I certainly remember reading an article about GBA sometime in 2002 or 2003 where Nintendo had said their core audience were people aged 8-12, although it may have been 14. Again, that's not to say older people didn't buy a handheld, because clearly that's not the case.

Can't think of any time they've done that, except the UK spokesman saying how the DS is more popular with women than men, over and over and over again.

I'm sure everyone's already seen this, but in case they haven't: http://whatjapanthinks.com/2006/05/24/gaming-in-japan/

 

[soundwave05]

So... you up to that wager I laid out before? Yes or no. No biggie, but I don't want to leave it dangling.

Which is what specifically?

 

[Monk]

Indeed everyone has. It's a cheap handheld that will shut the kids up for a while. Wii isn't a cheap handheld to shut the kids up for a while.

... I remember when i was saying this as the exact reason why the ds will beat out the psp. Everyone laughed at me.


Anyhow for the next 2-3 years I think that the ps3 may trail behind for quite a while. I mean seriously $600? The wii will sell quite comfortably imo, it has such good word of mouth, that atleast for the period they will continuosy sell. The 360 is going to have success because it is giving the same quality visuals as the ps3 at a $100 lower price and with more quality software. It is possible that the 360 may beat out the ps3 in the long run if MS plays their cards right.

Anyhow in the next 2-3 years it is hard to predict exactly but i think it will be nothing like the ps2 domination of last gen and will have evened out a bit.

 

[Odysseus]

Which is what specifically?

You're talking major hyperbole, I'm sort of in the same boat. One of the earliest indicators will be how Wii performs out of the gates next year. So I said if Wii beats Xbox 360 in January NPD (released in early February), ban me until February NPD. If Wii trails, you get the same fate.

 

[justchris]

Sony is ****ed with that $500-$600 price tag.

Microsoft has room to continue dropping the price. (Nintendo doesn't... $200, $150, $100).

If I am Nintendo I would be happy... your right. When did I say you weren't?

But... If I am Microsoft I would be happy.

All in all I think the price is a major issue and I think alot of gamers are waiting till Halo 3. 2007 is a mystery and nothing is certain. You seem to be very confident in the Wii success even though you have nothting to go by besides a launch... which always has "huge" demand.

I don't know, the Wii is old technology. They should be able to cost reduce fairly quickly. The Wii might be the first ever home console sold for $50 while still in production.

 

[smallsoft]

:

Halo 3, Halo 3, Halo 3 .... yawn. Call me when MS can sell to anyone but this same Halo/Gears of War demographic. Everyone says Nintendo relies too much on their franchises, when in actuality they've moved away from this. When I look at MS, I see the same thing "wait for Halo". Well what else you got besides that?

Sony proved they could sell the PaRappas and Crash Bandicoots of they world just as well as M-rated/hardcore type content. Microsoft ... not yet.

Blue Dragon, Lost Odyssey, Eternal Sonata, Infinite Undiscovery, Cry On, Magna Carta 2, and Kingdom Underfire 2 all on the way for 360. With over half releasing in 07, these games should sell to your average "eastern gamer" (for the lack of better terminology).

 

[soundwave05]

You're talking major hyperbole, I'm sort of in the same boat. One of the earliest indicators will be how Wii performs out of the gates next year. So I said if Wii beats Xbox 360 in January NPD (released in early February), ban me until February NPD. If Wii trails, you get the same fate.

LOL, I've followed this industry for over a decade. That's about as dumb of a bet as you could come up with.

Jan/Feb are traditionally slow months for Nintendo, even dominant platforms like the SNES, Game Boy, and DS. January NPD (if you want it spelled out) doesn't mean shit.

 

[Karma Kramer]

I don't know, the Wii is old technology. They should be able to cost reduce fairly quickly. The Wii might be the first ever home console sold for $50 while still in production.

I don't think they will ever sell it for $50... what would the price of the controllers be? lol

Hell Gamecube and Xbox are only still priced at $99, I think.

 

[GhaleonEB]

You're talking major hyperbole, I'm sort of in the same boat. One of the earliest indicators will be how Wii performs out of the gates next year. So I said if Wii beats Xbox 360 in January NPD (released in early February), ban me until February NPD. If Wii trails, you get the same fate.

This should be fun.

 

[kisakiproject]

:Halo 3, Halo 3, Halo 3 .... yawn. Call me when MS can sell to anyone but this same Halo/Gears of War demographic. Everyone says Nintendo relies too much on their franchises, when in actuality they've moved away from this. When I look at MS, I see the same thing "wait for Halo". Well what else you got besides that?

Y'know BD, LO, Trust Bell, Infinite Undiscovery etc are gonna sell to American/PAL/Euro JRPG fans who are the biggest sony fanboys of any group. So M$ is gonna sell to more than the Halo crowd. Both FFXI and Enchanted Arms sold over 100,000 copies and they weren't even a big deal. Imagine what BD will do when US commericals say "from the creator of FF."

 

[GhaleonEB]

LOL, I've followed this industry for over a decade. That's about as dumb of a bet as you could come up with.

Jan/Feb are traditionally slow months for Nintendo, even dominant platforms like the SNES, Game Boy, and DS. January NPD (if you want it spelled out) doesn't mean shit.

It's a slow month for the entire industry, not just Nintendo. Got any data that shows they're somehow more impacted from the come-down off the holidays? :lol

 

[soundwave05]

Blue Dragon, Lost Odyssey, Eternal Sonata, Infinite Undiscovery, Cry On, Magna Carta 2, and Kingdom Underfire 2 all on the way for 360. With over half releasing in 07, these games should sell to your average "eastern gamer" (for the lack of better terminology).

Wow. The 360 might even manage a monsterous 20k a week then in Japan with such a star studded lineup. Half of those titles are niche titles. Those games will get hype on GAF but don't mistake GAF for the real, mainstream market. See Okami, Shenmue, and about a million other examples.

 

[Odysseus]

LOL, I've followed this industry for over a decade. That's about as dumb of a bet as you could come up with.

Jan/Feb are traditionally slow months for Nintendo, even dominant platforms like the SNES, Game Boy, and DS. January NPD (if you want it spelled out) doesn't mean shit.

So that's a no? OK. Then shut up for a moment about Wii taking over the industry starting now and being the hottest thing since freshly baked and sliced bread, thanks.

 

[Branduil]

It's worth pointing out that if you have good sales you don't need to drop the price as much. How long was the PS2 $150?

 

[farnham]

http://ruliweb.dreamwiz.com/ruliboard/read.htm?main=nin&table=game_nin02&page=1&num=6732&find=&ftext=&left=b&time=

wow this will sell..

 

[smallsoft]

Y'know BD, LO, Trust Bell, Infinite Undiscovery etc are gonna sell to American/PAL/Euro JRPG fans who are the biggest sony fanboys of any group. So M$ is gonna sell to more than the Halo crowd. Both FFXI and Enchanted Arms sold over 100,000 copies and they weren't even a big deal. Imagine what BD will do when US commericals say "from the creator of FF."

Exactly. These titles should really broaden the 360 userbase.

 

[GhaleonEB]

Wow. The 360 might even manage a monsterous 20k a week then in Japan with such a star studded lineup. Half of those titles are niche titles.

Well, 20k a week is enough to carve out a nice niche of a couple million units. How fitting.

 

[justchris]

I don't think they will ever sell it for $50... what would the price of the controllers be? lol

Good point, I've obviously hit crazy. Still an hour before I get off work <sigh>

 

[Karma Kramer]

Wow. The 360 might even manage a monsterous 20k a week then in Japan with such a star studded lineup. Half of those titles are niche titles.

Wait could you list the half that are niche...? Also who says they won't sell well in the states?

 

[Odysseus]

It's worth pointing out that if you have good sales you don't need to drop the price as much. How long was the PS2 $150?

Xbox 1 actually went up in price!

But I think PS2 was there for about two years, right? Something like that.

 

[ethelred]

This is a horrible Media Create thread. Can we get Tabris back?

 

[kisakiproject]

Wow. The 360 might even manage a monsterous 20k a week then in Japan with such a star studded lineup. Half of those titles are niche titles.

They sell 360 to American and European gamers who think they are japanese. The RPG crowd is a ncihe. The JRPG crowd and even smaller one. But the point is this crowd didn't like xbox and atleast some of them will like 360. So again 360's appeal will broaden.

 

[smallsoft]

Wow. The 360 might even manage a monsterous 20k a week then in Japan with such a star studded lineup. Half of those titles are niche titles.

Uhh...I was talking about JRPG fans in the US and Europe. And while these are new IPs, JRPGs do sell well in Euro and US.

 

[soundwave05]

Wait could you list the half that are niche...? Also who says they won't sell well in the states?

No, I don't think any of those will be system sellers in the U.S. Write it down and take a picture if you want. Even a lot of 360 fanatics would look at that list and tell you straight up that's not a very mainstream-looking list of hit titles.

 

[smallsoft]

They sell 360 to American and European gamers who think they are japanese. The RPG crowd is a ncihe. The JRPG crowd and even smaller one. But the point is this crowd didn't like xbox and atleast some of them will like 360. So again 360's appeal will broaden.

Uh...Final Fantasy XII was the second highest selling game in November. Niche my ass.

 

[Karma Kramer]

No, I don't think any of those will be system sellers in the U.S. Write it down and take a picture if you want.

I know a couple GAFers in the Blue Dragon thread who are buying an Xbox 360 for Blue Dragon. So I think I will write it down and take a picture...