Support NeoGAF

[Moor-Angol]

Let's frame things in this manner, and maybe Josh can help me out here... Which console titles will have 1 million unit sales in Japan this year, and how does this compare to past years?

Actually here is a list about games which sold around a million or more during 2007 :

PSP - Monster Hunter 2nd
DS - Pokemon D/P
DS - New Super Mario Bros
DS - Brain Training 2
Wii - Wii Sports
Wii - Wii Play

incoming:
DS - Dragon Quest IV

Considering we had 9 million sellers in 2006 and, except for MH2 and DQ4r all the games above were not released this year, seems like 2007 software sales will be less than 2006...

 

[avatar299]

Thank you. Maybe Nintendo no longer views third parties as being integral for their success. It's not like they've played any significant role in the DS's success.

I'd say that debatable. Some third party did some good things. i don't see the DS becoming the PG powerhouse it has come to be if SE didn't jump on board from the start and pledge support(and actually be serious about it)

 

[charlequin]

Thank you. Maybe Nintendo no longer views third parties as being integral for their success.

They're integral for my success as a freaking gamer, which is really what this discussion is about.

The whole pitch from the pro-Nintendo camp (including myself, during almost all the DS discussions) has been "Nintendo isn't destroying real games." If the Wii succeeds solely on the back of first-party "non-games," while leaving third-party publishers and classic Nintendo game franchises in the dust, that pretty much puts the lie to that statement, and no one in this thread really should be too happy with that result.

 

[plagiarize]

Well, Zack and Wiki was possibly the best attempt so far at creating a "Nintendo" game from a 3rd party developer. It's really, really sad to see it do so poorly and it certainly doesn't bode well for other titles.

complex games with overly cutesy graphics are never going to sell. it's just a mystery to me why developers haven't worked it out yet. Zack and Wiki has had 'bomb' written on it for as long as Viva Pinata did.

 

[Weisheit]

Ok that's fine. But as a Wii owner I WANT good third party games. I don't want the Wii to be another GC.

Buy a 360.

They're integral for my success as a freaking gamer, which is really what this discussion is about.

The whole pitch from the pro-Nintendo camp (including myself, during almost all the DS discussions) has been "Nintendo isn't destroying real games." If the Wii succeeds solely on the back of first-party "non-games," while leaving third-party publishers and classic Nintendo game franchises in the dust, that pretty much puts the lie to that statement, and no one in this thread really should be too happy with that result.

You too.

 

[schuelma]

i'm not saying i have a great system for this, just that evaluating 3rd party performance on a small sample of data is a bad system. not pretending i'm smart enough to come up with a good one, but i'll know it when i see it.

Ok, I'll agree with you that it's still too early, but the 3rd party failures far outnumbers the 3rd party successes at this point.

 

[Evlar]

As an aside, having played Zak and Wiki, I feel the game is Capcom's internal tech demo turned into a game (similar to Elebits and Dewey for Namco). The difference being this is Capcom we're speaking about so their tech demo arrives with more polish then many companies' AAA efforts. I can't believe any real market research went into the planning for the game, it's simply a way to show off all the stuff you can do with the remote. It's abundantly obvious that a cell-shaded point-and-click console adventure game featuring a chibi pirate was never expected to light up sales charts.

 

[squatingyeti]

Yes, it's good for a 360 game in Japan but that doesn't change the fact that it was still worse then the previous installment. The 360 can only hide behind the "It did good for a 360 game" crap for so long, in the end sales are sales and if they are below then that's just it, the platform is not important.

When this game sits next to the others in the series, the sales will still look bad and saying "Good for a 360 game" won't change that.

Yet you defend the PS3's poor system sales? When compared to past iterations, if the sales are below, then it will still look bad and saying "Good for a $500 system" won't change that. Or does it only work one way?

 

[avatar299]

Buy a 360.

And that is how Nintendo will lose.

Edit: In America, Not in Japan.

 

[Segata Sanshiro]

On the plus side, this is great news for Mariah Carey.

 

[Weisheit]

And that is how Nintendo will lose.

Edit: In America, Not in Japan.

Yeah, because lack of third party games has hurt them so much in the US already...

 

[Evlar]

Actually here is a list about games which sold around a million or more during 2007 :

PSP - Monster Hunter 2nd
DS - Pokemon D/P
DS - New Super Mario Bros
DS - Brain Training 2
Wii - Wii Sports
Wii - Wii Play

incoming:
DS - Dragon Quest IV

Considering we had 9 million sellers in 2006 and, except for MH2 and DQ4r all the games above were not released this year, seems like 2007 software sales will be less than 2006...

Umm. My point was the lack of CONSOLE million-sellers, and the relative strength of the handheld market. Your list emphasizes this.

 

[Dascu]

Yeah, because lack of third party games has hurt them so much in the US already...

Hmm, I wouldn't say there's a lack, there's plenty of nice-looking games coming out in 2008. It's just frightnening that they're not selling as they should. This may of course cause a serious lack by 2009... but it's still a bit early to worry about this.

 

[Eteric Rice]

Buy a 360.


You too.

What if we don't like shooters?

 

[Weisheit]

Hmm, I wouldn't say there's a lack, there's plenty of nice-looking games coming out in 2008. It's just frightnening that they're not selling as they should. This may of course cause a serious lack by 2009... but it's still a bit early to worry about this.

I was being sarcastic.

 

[ethelred]

Horse: AC5 --> AC6.

Thank you. Maybe Nintendo no longer views third parties as being integral for their success. It's not like they've played any significant role in the DS's success.

If you think third parties haven't played a key role in helping the DS get to this level of success then you're nuts.

 

[Weisheit]

What if we don't like shooters?

You're fucked. Sorry.

 

[Eteric Rice]

You're fucked. Sorry.

 

[Dascu]

I was being sarcastic.

Ah, I know you were being sarcastic about the Wii not selling well in the USA, but not about the lack of games.

 

[Mithos Yggdrasill]

What's going on with this thread ??? I was out for only an hour..

Anyway, I'm the first that say that these Mario Galaxy numbers are low and disappointing, but not pathetic. 250k is still 250k and we know very well that Nintendo's games and in particular Mario games sell for long time.

Second: you agree that this low start is due to the fact that the hardcore userbase is little and that not a great amount of people has bought the system for Galaxy.
There is time. Time for Chirstmas. How many will buy a Wii for this period with Mario Galaxy ? Many. I'm one of them, because I have no time now and this is EXACTLY the point.

For hardcore gamers videogames are a big priority, right ? A SO big priority that they buy it the first week that comes out and they know perfectly that it is out.

Casual gamers are NOT so: they buy the game when they have time or they plan to buy a system for when they'll have time. So you remember ? It is a system for families and guess what, families have no time when they work.

So, probably, slowly, but surely, this game will sell. It will have legs.

And there is more: why has Nintendo started to commercialise the game so late ? Bacause if you do it when the game is NOT out, a casual gamer will forget it very fast. If you insist for long time, when the game is out, it will have a bigger effect. So, my question now: has Nintendo already stopped with commercials or not ?

Maybe I'm wrong, but I have the impression that Nintendo is counting more on the long term with the Wii then with the short term.
This has NOT worked eith Twilight Princess, sadly. This worked for Wii Sports and Mario Party 8.
I don't really know if it will work for Galaxy too and I'm sure Nintendo is not sure either. This is a completely different system with a different audience and it is difficult to predict how well a game will sell on it. probabyl Nintendo is using the DS a model, but there are big differences and probably these are coming out only now...

 

[ksamedi]

Ok, I'll agree with you that it's still too early, but the 3rd party failures far outnumbers the 3rd party successes at this point.

You seem to keep on going with this but I want to ask, which third party games deserved to do better in your opinion? Was it crap like Opoona, Dewy or some Tamagotchi minigame compilation. I know Zack and Wiki bombed but that game is like Okami, no appeal to the masses even if its good. I hoped it did well, but it didn't, no need to blame the 3+ million users for not buying third party games because people don't function like that.

 

[Oblivion]

Maybe Galaxy will have legs?


...guys? D:

 

[charlequin]

You seem to keep on going with this but I want to ask, which third party games deserved to do better in your opinion?

This question is irrelevant. Bad third-party games that then sell poorly don't create an install base with a thirst for third-party games. The result is still a system that apparently doesn't promise good core-game sales for anyone.

 

[Weisheit]

Horse: AC5 --> AC6.



If you think third parties haven't played a key role in helping the DS get to this level of success then you're nuts.

Really, Nintendogs, Brain Training, ACWW, NSMB ect. ect. ect.
All of the truly big games for DS have come from Nintendo, maybe SE (not third parties) has helped sustain the momentum.

 

[Dascu]

Maybe Galaxy will have legs?


...guys? D:

It probably will continue to sell well, but if a flagship game like Mario Galaxy only has first-week sales like that, but it's not great news for 3rd-parties regarding the hardcore install-base.

 

[Gahiggidy]

Why are people debating whether Nintendo is "screwed"??! Did I miss something? :confused

 

[Cosmozone]

Do some of you really think that it's Nintendo's fault that the interest in traditional games declined over the years? I mean, that's why they took the more casual route in the first place.
As for Super Mario Galaxy, I hope good word of mouth will help sales. The first week numbers are not bad.

 

[ksamedi]

This question is irrelevant. Bad third-party games that then sell poorly don't create an install base with a thirst for third-party games. The result is still a system that apparently doesn't promise good core-game sales for anyone.

My problem was more with the seperation of first party and third party game sales while there is actually none.

 

[Dascu]

Why are people debating whether Nintendo is "screwed"??! Did I miss something? :confused

Nintendo is most definitely not screwed, but 3rd-parties and hardcore Wii-only gamers might not have a very bright future.

 

[Oblivion]

On the plus side, if Nintendo intends on following the DS route with their console games (such as Zelda), then maybe this means we'll get a 2D Mario for Wii.

As someone who loves the 2D and 3D Marios equally, I would be happy with such an outcome as well. Besides, at least the last 3D Mario went out with a fucking bang.

*pours a 40 on Mario Galaxy's grave*

 

[GreenNight]

Why are people debating whether Nintendo is "screwed"??! Did I miss something? :confused

Some assholes around here will use any hint that Nintendo 'failed' at something only because they are pissed their favorite console is not #1. Regular system wars bullshit, just ignore it.

 

[Tideas]

Actually here is a list about games which sold around a million or more during 2007 :

PSP - Monster Hunter 2nd
DS - Pokemon D/P
DS - New Super Mario Bros
DS - Brain Training 2
Wii - Wii Sports
Wii - Wii Play

incoming:
DS - Dragon Quest IV

Considering we had 9 million sellers in 2006 and, except for MH2 and DQ4r all the games above were not released this year, seems like 2007 software sales will be less than 2006...

He said consoles. Everything on that list is handheld, which is a world apart from consoles. Wiiplay is just for an extra controller. The only game that even has the right to be considered as a console game up there is Wii Sports

 

[Aeris130]

Why are people debating whether Nintendo is "screwed"??! Did I miss something? :confused

SMG is optimistic bomba that will have legs for weekend holiday non-gamer rush for 3rd-party titles with efforts. That's what I make of it.

 

[Kosma]

Am I the only one to think that there may yet be a role left for Sony in the console market in Japan? Seeing the 2007 million seller list tells me that either the core market is dead entirely or that it hasn't been fed.

 

[Moor-Angol]

He said consoles. Everything on that list is handheld, which is a world apart from consoles. Wiiplay is just for an extra controller. The only game that even has the right to be considered as a console game up there is Wii Sports

Sorry, i didn't realize he asked for console...

well, with PS3 just a little more over 1mln and 360 aiming for 500k, it's hard to see a game selling over a million at the moment... Wii Sport is a tech demo, Play is a controller bundle, Wii Fit is a non-game....

consoles are gonna dying in Japan ?

 

[Lightning]

Is it possible that Mario Galaxy will have legs throughout the holidays so that the Wii fanbase don't bother buying anything else?

Next week will be the telling week to see if the 360 maintains it's sales and to see how much Mario Galaxy drops.

 

[[Nintex]]

Am I the only one to think that there may yet be a role left for Sony in the console market in Japan? That is ofcourse the hardcore buys the console.

With Xbox 360 selling more, not a chance.
If Microsoft manages to keep ahead of Sony in Japan it's all over.

 

[Lightning]

With Xbox 360 selling more, not a chance.
If Microsoft manages to keep ahead of Sony in Japan it's all over.

That is one massive "If" because I don't think that will happen. Next Week will tell the story. It's only 3 days until DW6, Ratchet & Clank and the 40GB launch in Japan.

 

[Kosma]

With Xbox 360 selling more, not a chance.
If Microsoft manages to keep ahead of Sony in Japan it's all over.

I'm not following you, when did the 360 sell more in Japan then the PS3? It could happen for a week or so when a big game comes, but I don't really see it happening on a weekly basis.

 

[Durante]

With Xbox 360 selling more, not a chance.
If Microsoft manages to keep ahead of Sony in Japan it's all over.

For most people I'd assume they're joking, but your avatar makes me wary.

 

[Stumpokapow]

Next week will be the telling week to see if the 360 maintains it's sales.

The 360 is not going to maintain its sales.

 

[JoshuaJSlone]

I'm saying that the DS never had this perception. By virtue of being the successor to a success instead of a failure, it started with the perception that it would receive decent games. Wii's success didn't change the perception that it would receive GCN-level software support, which means an equivalent effort from Nintendo (we can argue now about whether it even got an equivalent effort) produced a shittier result.

But... so far the result isn't shittier. Wii without the GBA advantage has done better than DS with the GBA advantage, even in core games. No first party DS game started as well as Super Mario Galaxy. No third party DS game sold as well as Dragon Quest Swords.

It takes more than one to make a trend.

It only takes one to make a "start", though.

I'd say that debatable. Some third party did some good things. i don't see the DS becoming the PG powerhouse it has come to be if SE didn't jump on board from the start and pledge support(and actually be serious about it)

We didn't see FF III until nearly 2 years after launch, though; Crystal Bearers could come out relatively sooner. DQ Swords and Chocobo's Mysterious Dungeon Wii are probably bigger deals than any of the individual S-E DS titles from 2004 or 2005.

If you think third parties haven't played a key role in helping the DS get to this level of success then you're nuts.

Well, looking at software sales to date, and counting various Nintendogs and Pokémon as a single game... the top 30 DS games consist of 23 Nintendo games, 2 Square-Enix games, 2 Bandai Namco games, and 1 each from Sega, Level 5, and Rocket Company. It's pretty clear where the lion's share of credit goes, I think.

 

[[Nintex]]

For most people I'd assume they're joking, but your avatar makes me wary.

Just look at the "if" and the Super Mario avatar bandwagon.

 

[Nolan.]

That is one massive "If" because I don't think that will happen. Next Week will tell the story. It's only 3 days until DW6, Ratchet & Clank and the 40GB launch in Japan.

Yea I think it's just a blip.

 

[Mithos Yggdrasill]

Why are people debating whether Nintendo is "screwed"??! Did I miss something? :confused

Nintendo is not screwed in any way. Hardcore gamers and hardcore games are screwed instead, because PS3 is selling like shit. X360 is limited by its non-userbase. And Wii is not the promising land for traditional games. Ergo, WE are screwed.

 

[avatar299]

But... so far the result isn't shittier. Wii without the GBA advantage has done better than DS with the GBA advantage, even in core games. No first party DS game started as well as Super Mario Galaxy. No third party DS game sold as well as Dragon Quest Swords.

Did I miss something.

 

[Deku]

Well, looking at software sales to date, and counting various Nintendogs and Pokémon as a single game... the top 30 DS games consist of 23 Nintendo games, 2 Square-Enix games, 2 Bandai Namco games, and 1 each from Sega, Level 5, and Rocket Company. It's pretty clear where the lion's share of credit goes, I think.

They have, 3rd party games have also sold very well on average. Forget the top 30.

Nintendo will sell a lot of software no matter if its the GameCube or the DS, but the DS is certainly no gamecube when it comes to third party software sales.

Looking at just the top 30 doesn't say very much, we know titles like the 'Simple games' which doesn't sell well but dont top the charts, but collectively, they fill in the holes. Certainly pubs like SE has had a huge impact on the platform.

 

[JoshuaJSlone]

This question is irrelevant. Bad third-party games that then sell poorly don't create an install base with a thirst for third-party games. The result is still a system that apparently doesn't promise good core-game sales for anyone.

It's like ethelred said in the recent MySims thread:

It's a zero sum game. Dev resources are finite. If the choice is between EA making bad games on the Wii or good games on a different console, I'm going with that latter choice as preferable every time. Publisher support in and of itself should never be considered an end goal unless the support is good support. I'm not going to hope for them to continue to make bad games here just for the sake of having them making something, anything, for the Wii.

They have, 3rd party games have also sold very well on average. Forget the top 30.

I'm not saying they're not successful, but that it's not Harvest Moon DS and Puyo Puyo which have made the DS the record-setting machine it is.

 

[avatar299]

Some assholes around here will use any hint that Nintendo 'failed' at something only because they are pissed their favorite console is not #1. Regular system wars bullshit, just ignore it.

You know, Segata was behind a lot of it, so i think it goes farther than that.

 

[Mithos Yggdrasill]

But... so far the result isn't shittier. Wii without the GBA advantage has done better than DS with the GBA advantage, even in core games. No first party DS game started as well as Super Mario Galaxy. No third party DS game sold as well as Dragon Quest Swords.

It only takes one to make a "start", though.

We didn't see FF III until nearly 2 years after launch, though; Crystal Bearers could come out relatively sooner. DQ Swords and Chocobo's Mysterious Dungeon Wii are probably bigger deals than any of the individual S-E DS titles from 2004 or 2005.

Well, looking at software sales to date, and counting various Nintendogs and Pokémon as a single game... the top 30 DS games consist of 23 Nintendo games, 2 Square-Enix games, 2 Bandai Namco games, and 1 each from Sega, Level 5, and Rocket Company. It's pretty clear where the lion's share of credit goes, I think.

Interesting precision. Again, I repeat, we are probably exaggerating.